other candidates for the reduction of vehicle fuel consumption, such as light-duty diesel or hybrid vehicles.

Improvements to Modeling of Multiple Fuel Economy Technologies

Many vehicle and power train technologies that improve fuel consumption are currently in or entering production or are in advanced stages of development in European or Asian markets where high consumer fuel prices have made commercialization of the technologies cost-effective. Depending on the intended vehicle use or current state of energy-loss reduction, the application of incremental technologies will produce varying levels of improvement in fuel consumption. Data made available to the committee from automobile manufacturers, Tier 1 suppliers, and other published studies also suggest a very wide range in estimated incremental cost. As noted above in this Summary, estimates based on teardown cost analysis, currently being utilized by the EPA in its analysis of standards for regulating light-duty-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions, should be expanded for developing cost impact analyses. The committee notes, however, that cost estimates are always more uncertain than estimates of fuel consumption.

FSS modeling that is based on empirically derived power train and vehicle performance and on fuel consumption data maps offers what the committee believes is the best available method to fully account for system energy losses and to analyze potential improvements in fuel consumption achievable by technologies as they are introduced into the market. Analyses conducted for the committee show that the effects of interactions between differing types of technologies for reducing energy loss can and often do vary greatly from vehicle to vehicle.


Recommendation: The committee proposes a method whereby FSS analyses are used on class-characterizing vehicles, so that synergies and effectiveness in implementing multiple fuel economy technologies can be evaluated with what should be greater accuracy. This proposed method would determine a characteristic vehicle that would be defined as a reasonable average representative of a class of vehicles. This representative vehicle, whether real or theoretical, would undergo sufficient FSS, combined with experimentally determined and vehicle-class-specific system mapping, to allow a reasonable understanding of the contributory effects of the technologies applied to reduce vehicle energy losses. Data developed under the United States Council for Automotive Research (USCAR) Benchmarking Consortium should be considered as a source for such analysis and potentially expanded. Under the USCAR program, actual production vehicles are subjected to a battery of vehicle, engine, and transmission tests in sufficient detail to understand how each candidate technology is applied and how they contribute to the overall performance and fuel consumption of light-duty vehicles. Combining the results of such testing with FSS modeling, and thereby making all simulation variables and subsystem maps transparent to all interested parties, would allow the best opportunity to define a technical baseline against which potential improvements could be analyzed more accurately and openly than is the case with the current methods employed.

The steps in the recommended process would be as follows:

  1. Develop a set of baseline vehicle classes from which a characteristic vehicle can be chosen to represent each class. The vehicle may be either real or theoretical and will possess the average attributes of that class as determined by sales-weighted averages.

  2. Identify technologies with a potential to reduce fuel consumption.

  3. Determine the applicability of each technology to the various vehicle classes.

  4. Estimate each technology’s preliminary impact on fuel consumption and cost.

  5. Determine the optimum implementation sequence (technology pathway) based on cost-effectiveness and engineering considerations.

  6. Document the cost-effectiveness and engineering judgment assumptions used in step 5 and make this information part of a widely accessible database.

  7. Utilize modeling software (FSS) to progress through each technology pathway for each vehicle class to obtain the final incremental effects of adding each technology.

If such a process were adopted as part of a regulatory rulemaking procedure, it could be completed on 3-year cycles to allow regulatory agencies sufficient lead time to integrate the results into future proposed and enacted rules.

CONCLUDING COMMENTS

A significant number of approaches are currently available to reduce the fuel consumption of light-duty vehicles, ranging from relatively minor changes to lubricants and tires to large changes in propulsion systems and vehicle platforms. Technologies such as all-electric propulsion systems have also demonstrated the potential to reduce fuel consumption, although further development is required to determine the degree of improvement, cost-effectiveness, and durability. The development and deployment of vehicles that consume less fuel will be influenced not only by technological factors but also by economic and policy factors whose examination is beyond the scope of this study. Future NRC committees will be responsible for periodic assessments of the cost and benefits of technologies that reduce vehicle fuel consumption, including how such technologies might be used to meet new fuel economy standards.



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