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Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles
ASSESSMENT OF FUEL ECONOMY TECHNOLOGIES FOR LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES
Committee on the Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. DTNH22-07-H-00155 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Transportation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-15607-3
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-15607-6
Library of Congress Control Number: 2011927639
Copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles
COMMITTEE ON THE ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY
TREVOR O. JONES,1
NAE, ElectroSonics Medical, Cleveland, Ohio,
Chair
THOMAS W. ASMUS,
NAE, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired), Oakland, Michigan
RODICA BARANESCU, NAE, NAVISTAR,
Warrenville, Illinois
JAY BARON,
Center for Automotive Research, Ann Arbor, Michigan
DAVID FRIEDMAN,
Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, D.C.
DAVID GREENE,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
LINOS JACOVIDES,
NAE, Delphi Research Laboratory (retired), Grosse Pointe Farms, Michigan
JOHN H. JOHNSON,
Michigan Technological University, Houghton
JOHN G. KASSAKIAN,
NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
ROGER B. KRIEGER,
University of Wisconsin-Madison
GARY W. ROGERS, FEV,
Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan
ROBERT F. SAWYER,
NAE, University of California, Berkeley
Staff
K. JOHN HOLMES, Study Director
ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer
LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
MADELINE WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer
E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant
JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director,
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
1
NAE, National Academy of Engineering.
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BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
ANDREW BROWN, JR., Chair,
NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan
RAKESH AGRAWAL,
NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
WILLIAM BANHOLZER,
NAE, The Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan
MARILYN BROWN,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
MICHAEL CORRADINI,
NAE, University of Wisconsin-Madison
PAUL DeCOTIS,
Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York
CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES,
NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station
WILLIAM FRIEND,
NAE, Bechtel Group, Inc., McLean, Virginia
SHERRI GOODMAN,
CNA, Alexandria, Virginia
NARAIN HINGORANI,
NAE,
Independent Consultant,
Los Altos Hills, California
ROBERT HUGGETT, Independent Consultant,
Seaford, Virginia
DEBBIE NIEMEIER,
University of California, Davis
DANIEL NOCERA,
NAS,2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER,
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
DAN REICHER,
Stanford University, Stanford, California
BERNARD ROBERTSON,
NAE, DaimlerChrysler (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant,
Pflugerville, Texas
MARK THIEMENS,
NAS, University of California, San Diego
RICHARD WHITE,
Oppenheimer & Company, New York City
Staff
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director
DANA CAINES, Financial Associate
ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer
JONNA HAMILTON, Program Officer
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer and Associate Board Director
LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant
MADELINE WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer
JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Program Assistant
1
National Academy of Engineering.
2
National Academy of Sciences.
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DEDICATION
This report is dedicated to Dr. Patrick Flynn, a very active and contributing committee member and a member of the National Academy of Engineering, who passed away on August 21, 2008, while this report was being prepared.
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Acknowledgments
As a result of the considerable time and effort contributed by the members of the Committee on the Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy, whose biographies are presented in Appendix A, this report identifies and estimates the effectiveness of technologies for improving fuel economy in light-duty vehicles, and the related costs. The committee’s statement of task (Appendix B) clearly presented substantial challenges, which the committee confronted with fair and honest discussion supported with data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the DOT-Volpe Research Laboratory. I appreciate the members’ efforts, especially those who chaired the subgroups and led the compilation of the various chapters.
The data and conclusions presented in the report have benefited from a substantial amount of information provided by global automobile manufacturers, suppliers, and others in the regulatory communities and in non-governmental organizations. Appendix C lists the presentations provided to the committee. Members of the committee also visited industry organizations in North America, Europe, and Japan. In addition, the National Research Council contracted with outside organizations to develop and evaluate a number of technological opportunities.
The committee greatly appreciates and thanks the dedicated and committed staff of the National Research Council (NRC), and specifically the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES) under the direction of James Zucchetto (director of BEES). The committee particularly wishes to recognize the outstanding leadership of K. John Holmes, study director, and his staff. Thanks and recognition are due to the following BEES staff: Alan Crane, senior program officer; Madeline Woodruff, senior program officer; LaNita Jones, administrative coordinator; Jonathan Yanger, senior program assistant; and Aaron Greco, Mirzayan Policy Fellow, as well as consultants K.G. Duleep of Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc.; Ricardo, Inc.; and IBIS, Inc. The committee also thanks Christopher Baillie, FEV, Inc., an unpaid consultant to the committee, for his many efforts, dedication, and hard work.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Tom Austin, Sierra Research Corporation,
Paul Blumberg, Consultant,
Andrew Brown, Delphi Corporation,
Wynn Bussmann, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired),
Laurence Caretto, California State University,
Coralie Cooper, NESCAUM,
James Fay, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Larry Howell, Consultant,
David Japikse, Concepts NREC,
Orron Kee, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (retired),
Steven Plotkin, Argonne National Laboratory,
Priyaranjan Prasad, Prasad Consulting, and
Lee Schipper, Berkeley Transportation Center.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor
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did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Elisabeth M. Drake, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (retired), and Dale Stein, Michigan Technological University (retired). Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Trevor O. Jones, Chair
Committee on the Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy
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Contents
SUMMARY
1
1
INTRODUCTION
9
Current Policy Context and Motivation,
9
Statement of Task,
10
Contents of This Report,
10
References,
11
2
FUNDAMENTALS OF FUEL CONSUMPTION
12
Introduction,
12
Fuel Consumption and Fuel Economy,
12
Engines,
14
Fuels,
16
Fuel Economy Testing and Regulations,
17
Customer Expectations,
18
Tractive Force and Tractive Energy,
19
Detailed Vehicle Simulation,
21
Findings and Recommendations,
22
References,
23
3
COST ESTIMATION
24
Introduction,
24
Premises,
25
Components of Cost,
26
Factors Affecting Costs over Time and Across Manufacturers,
27
Methods of Estimating Costs,
28
Retail Price Equivalent Markup Factors,
32
Findings,
36
References,
36
4
SPARK-IGNITION GASOLINE ENGINES
38
Introduction,
38
SI Engine Efficiency Fundamentals,
38
Thermodynamic Factors,
40
Valve-Event Modulation of Gas-Exchange Processes,
40
Gasoline Direct Injection,
48
Downsized Engines with Turbocharging,
49
Engine Friction Reduction Efforts,
52
Engine Heat Management,
53
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Homogeneous-Charge Compression Ignition,
54
Combustion Restart,
54
Ethanol Direct Injection,
54
Findings,
55
Bibliography,
56
Annex,
58
5
COMPRESSION-IGNITION DIESEL ENGINES
61
Introduction,
61
Technologies Affecting Fuel Consumption,
62
Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential,
68
Technology Readiness/Sequencing,
72
Technology Cost Estimates,
73
Findings,
80
References,
82
Annex,
83
6
HYBRID POWER TRAINS
84
Introduction,
84
Hybrid Power Train Systems,
84
Battery Technology,
88
Power Electronics,
91
Rotating Electrical Machines and Controllers,
91
Cost Estimates,
93
Fuel Consumption Benefits of Hybrid Architectures,
94
Fuel Cell Vehicles,
95
Findings,
95
References,
96
Annex,
97
7
NON-ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES
99
Introduction,
99
Non-Engine Technologies Considered in This Study,
99
Fuel Consumption Benefits of Non-Engine Technologies,
106
Timing Considerations for Introducing New Technologies,
109
Costs of Non-Engine Technologies,
111
Summary,
114
Findings,
116
References,
116
8
MODELING IMPROVEMENTS IN VEHICLE FUEL CONSUMPTION
118
Introduction,
118
Challenges in Modeling Vehicle Fuel Consumption,
119
Methodology of the 2002 National Research Council Report,
119
Modeling Using Partial Discrete Approximation Method,
123
Modeling Using Full System Simulation,
131
An Analysis of Synergistic Effects Among Technologies Using Full System Simulation,
133
Findings,
135
References,
136
9
APPLICATION OF VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES TO VEHICLE CLASSES
138
Introduction,
138
Developing Baseline Vehicle Classes,
138
Estimation of Fuel Consumption Benefits,
140
Applicability of Technologies to Vehicle Classes,
141
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Estimating Incremental Costs Associated with Technology Evolution,
141
Assessing Potential Technology Sequencing Paths,
144
Improvements to Modeling of Multiple Fuel Economy Technologies,
153
Findings and Recommendation,
155
Bibliography,
156
APPENDIXES
A Committee Biographies
159
B Statement of Task
163
C List of Presentations at Public Committee Meetings
165
D Select Acronyms
167
E Comparison of Fuel Consumption and Fuel Economy
169
F Review of Estimate of Retail Price Equivalent Markup Factors
171
G Compression-Ignition Engine Replacement for Full-Size Pickup/SUV
177
H Other NRC Assessments of Benefits, Costs, and Readiness of Fuel Economy Technologies
181
I Results of Other Major Studies
189
J Probabilities in Estimations of Fuel Consumption Benefits and Costs
208
K Model Description and Results for the EEA-ICF Model
210
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