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International Differences in Mortality at Older Ages

DIMENSIONS AND SOURCES

Eileen M. Crimmins, Samuel H. Preston, and Barney Cohen, Editors

Panel on Understanding Divergent Trends in Longevity in High-Income Countries

Committee on Population

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

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Eileen M. Crimmins, Samuel H. Preston, and Barney Cohen, Editors Panel on Understanding Divergent Trends in Longevity in High-Income Countries Committee on Population Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the National Institute on Aging’s Division of Behavioral and Social Research through Contract No. NO1-OD-4-2139, TO#194 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Any opinions, findings, conclusion, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organization or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data International differences in mortality at older ages : dimensions and sources / Eileen M. Crimmins, Samuel H. Preston, and Barney Cohen, editors ; Panel on Understanding Divergent Trends in Longevity in High-Income Countries, Committee on Population, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. p. ; cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-309-15733-9 (book) — ISBN 978-0-309-15734-6 (pdf) 1. Longevity. 2. Mortality. I. Crimmins, Eileen M. II. Preston, Samuel H. III. Cohen, Barney, 1959- IV. National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on Understanding Divergent Trends in Longevity in High-Income Countries. V. Title. [DNLM: 1. Life Expectancy—United States. 2. Aged—United States. 3. Cross- Cultural Comparison—United States. 4. Developed Countries—United States. 5. Middle Aged—United States. 6. Mortality—United States. WT 116] HB1531.I575 2010 304.6′4—dc22 2010037982 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2010). International Differences in Mortality at Older Ages: Dimensions and Sources. E.M. Crimmins, S.H. Preston, and B. Cohen, Eds. Panel on Understanding Divergent Trends in Longevity in High-Income Countries. Committee on Population, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Acad- emy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding en- gineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineer- ing programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is presi- dent of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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PANEL ON UNDERSTANDING DIVERGENT TRENDS IN LONGEVITY IN HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES EILEEN M. CRIMMINS (Cochair), Davis School of Gerontology, University of Southern California SAMUEL H. PRESTON (Cochair), Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania JAMES BANKS, Department of Economics, University of Manchester, and Institute for Fiscal Studies, London LISA F. BERKMAN, Department of Society, Human Development, and Health, Harvard University School of Public Health DANA A. GLEI, Center for Population and Health, Georgetown University NOREEN GOLDMAN, Office of Population Research and Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University ALAN D. LOPEZ, School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Australia JOHAN P. MACKENBACH, Department of Public Health, Erasmus University, Netherlands MICHAEL G. MARMOT, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, England DAVID MECHANIC, Institute for Health, Health Care Policy, and Aging Research, Rutgers University CHRISTOPHER J.L. MURRAY, School of Public Health, University of Washington JAMES P. SMITH, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California JACQUES VALLIN, Institut National d’Études Démographiques, Paris, France JAMES W. VAUPEL, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany JOHN R. WILMOTH, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley BARNEY COHEN, Study Director ROBERT POOL, Consultant JACQUELINE R. SOVDE, Program Associate 

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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION LINDA J. WAITE (Chair), Department of Sociology, University of Chicago CHRISTINE BACHRACH, Social Science Research Institute, Duke University and School of Behavioral and Social Sciences, University of Maryland EILEEN M. CRIMMINS, Department of Sociology, University of Southern California PETER J. DONALDSON, Population Council, New York, New York BARBARA ENTWISLE, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill JOSHUA R. GOLDSTEIN, Max Planck-Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany CHARLES HIRSCHMAN, Department of Sociology, University of Washington BARTHÉLÉMY KUATE-DEFO, Department of Demography, University of Montreal WOLFGANG LUTZ, World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria DUNCAN THOMAS, Economics Department, Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University BARBARA B. TORREY, Independent Consultant, Washington, DC MAXINE WEINSTEIN, Center for Population and Health, Georgetown University BARNEY COHEN, Director i

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Acknowledgments In 2008, the National Research Council (NRC) convened a multi­ disciplinary panel of experts to examine diverging trends that have been observed in longevity at older ages across high­income countries. This companion volume contains the detailed background papers that the panel commissioned to help its work. We gratefully acknowledge the sponsor of this project, the Division of Behavioral and Social Research at the National Institute on Aging. Particu­ lar thanks go to Dr. Richard Suzman, whose foresight in recognizing the timeliness of this project made this work possible. The papers in this volume have been reviewed in draft form by in­ dividuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published volume as sound as possible and to ensure that the volume meets institu­ tional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. The Committee on Population wishes to thank the following individuals for their review of these papers: Nancy Adler, Departments of Psychiatry and Pediatrics, and Center for Health & Community, University of California, San Francisco; Robert Anderson, Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; James Banks, Department of Economics, University College, London, and Institute for Fiscal Studies, London; Magali Barbieri, Institut National vii

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iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS d’Études Démographiques, Paris, France; Lisa Berkman, Department of Society, Human Development, and Health, Harvard University School of Public Health, Harvard University; John Bongaarts, Population Council, New York; Allan Brandt, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University; Maria Danielsson, Unit for General Welfare Analysis, Depart- ment of Statistics, Monitoring and Evaluation, National Board of Health and Welfare, Stockholm, Sweden; Majid Ezzati, Department of Global Health and Population, Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health; Dana Glei, Department of Demography, Univer- sity of California, Berkeley; Dana Goldman, Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California; Mark Hayward, Population Research Center and Department of Sociology, Uni- versity of Texas at Austin; Christine L. Himes, Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University; Rasmus Hoffmann, Department for Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Robert A. Hummer, Department of Sociology and Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin; Arun Karlamangla, Division of Geriatrics, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California, Los Angeles; Niels Keiding, Department of Biostatistics Institute of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Denmark; Alan Lopez, School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; Johan Mackenbach, Depart- ment of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands; JoAnn E. Manson, Division of Preventive Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School; Linda G. Martin, RAND Corporation, Arlington, Virginia; David Mechanic, Institute for Health, Health Care Policy, and Aging Research, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey; Pierre-Carl Michaud, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California; Amos Pines, Department of Medicine ‘T’, Ichilov Medical Center, Tel-Aviv, Israel; Richard Rogers, Department of Sociology and Population Program, IBS, University of Colorado; James Smith, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California; Jacques Vallin, Institut National d’Études Démographiques, Paris, France; and Frans Willekens, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demog- raphy Institute, The Hague. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of any of the papers nor did they see the final version of any paper before this publication. The review of this volume was overseen by Jane Menken, Population Program, Department of Sociology, University of Colorado. Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the papers was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authors.

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Contents 1 Introduction and Overview 1 Eileen M. Crimmins, Samuel H. Preston, and Barney Cohen Part I: Levels and Trends 2 Diverging Trends in Life Expectancy at Age 50: A Look at Causes of Death 17 Dana A. Glei, France Meslé, and Jacques Vallin 3 Are International Differences in Health Similar to International Differences in Life Expectancy? 68 Eileen M. Crimmins, Krista Garcia, and Jung Ki Kim Part II: Identifying Causal Explanations 4 Contribution of Smoking to International Differences in Life Expectancy 105 Samuel H. Preston, Dana A. Glei, and John R. Wilmoth 5 Divergent Patterns of Smoking Across High-Income Nations 132 Fred Pampel 6 Can Obesity Account for Cross-National Differences in Life Expectancy Trends? 164 Dawn E. Alley, Jennifer Lloyd, and Michelle Shardell 7 The Contribution of Physical Activity to Divergent Trends in Longevity 193 Andrew Steptoe and Anna Wikman ix

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x CONTENTS 8 Do Cross-Country Variations in Social Integration and Social Interactions Explain Differences in Life Expectancy in Industrialized Countries? 217 James Banks, Lisa Berkman, and James P. Smith with Mauricio Aendano and Maria Glymour Part III: The U.S. Health System 9 Low Life Expectancy in the United States: Is the Health Care System at Fault? 259 Samuel H. Preston and Jessica Ho 10 Can Hormone Therapy Account for American Women’s Survival Disadvantage? 299 Noreen Goldman Part IV: Inequality 11 Do Americans Have Higher Mortality Than Europeans at All Levels of the Education Distribution?: A Comparison of the United States and 14 European Countries 313 Mauricio Aendano, Renske Kok, Maria Glymour, Lisa Berkman, Ichiro Kawachi, Anton Kunst, and Johan Mackenbach with support from members of the Eurothine Consortium 12 Geographic Differences in Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States Compared with Other High-Income Countries 333 John R. Wilmoth, Carl Boe, and Magali Barbieri Part V: International Case Studies 13 Renewed Progress in Life Expectancy: The Case of the Netherlands 369 Johan Mackenbach and Joop Garssen 14 The Divergent Life-Expectancy Trends in Denmark and Sweden—and Some Potential Explanations 385 Kaare Christensen, Michael Daidsen, Knud Juel, Laust Mortensen, Roland Rau, and James W. Vaupel Biographical Sketches of Contributors 409