New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics

Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics

Board on Physics and Astronomy

Space Studies Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

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New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics Board on Physics and Astronomy Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract NNX08AN97G between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Contract AST-0743899 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation, and Contract DE-FG02-08ER41542 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Support for this study was also provided by the Vesto Slipher Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies that provided support for the project. Cover: Complexity abounds in the universe, especially during the birth phases of stars and planetary systems. The M17 region, also known as the Omega Nebula, in the constellation Sagittarius is rich in massive stars, including those recently formed and already impacting their environment (bright nebulous regions—e.g., back lower), as well as those still in the process of formation within cold dense clouds (dark regions—e.g., front center). Provinces such as this within our galaxy and others allow astronomers to understand and quantify the cycling of matter and energy within the cosmic ecosystem. The image depicts mid-infrared emission at 3.6- to 24-micrometer wave- lengths as detected by NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope, although the region has been studied from high-frequency gamma-ray to low-frequency radio energies. Image courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech. Dedication (p. xxxiii): Photo courtesy of American Astronomical Society. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data National Research Council (U.S.). Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics. New worlds, new horizons in astronomy and astrophysics / Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Board on Physics and Astronomy, Space Studies Board, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-309-15802-2 (case bdg.) — ISBN 978-0-309-15799-5 (pbk.) — ISBN 978-0-309-15800-8 (pdf) 1. Astronomy—Research—Forecasting. 2. Astrophysics—Research—Forecasting. 3. Research—International cooperation. I. Title. QB61.N385 2011 520.72—dc22 2010044515 This report is available in limited quantities from the Board on Physics and Astronomy, 500 Fifth Street, N.W.,Washington, DC 20001; bpa@nas.edu, http://www.nationalacademies.edu/bpa. Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern - ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to asso- ciate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.or g

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COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS ROGER D. BLANDFORD, Stanford University, Chair MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University, Vice Chair JOHN P. HUCHRA, Harvard University, Vice Chair MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona, Vice Chair LYNNE HILLENBRAND, California Institute of Technology, Executive Officer STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering LARS BILDSTEN, University of California, Santa Barbara JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago DEBRA M. ELMEGREEN, Vassar College JOSHUA FRIEMAN, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology TIMOTHY M. HECKMAN, Johns Hopkins University ROBERT C. KENNICUTT, JR., University of Cambridge JONATHAN I. LUNINE, University of Arizona and University of Rome, Tor Vergata CLAIRE E. MAX, University of California, Santa Cruz DAN McCAMMON, University of Wisconsin STEVEN M. RITZ, University of California, Santa Cruz JURI TOOMRE, University of Colorado SCOTT D. TREMAINE, Institute for Advanced Study MICHAEL S. TURNER, University of Chicago NEIL deGRASSE TYSON, Hayden Planetarium, American Museum of Natural History PAUL A. VANDEN BOUT, National Radio Astronomy Observatory A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired) Staff DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy (BPA) MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Astro2010 Study Director and Director, Space Studies Board (SSB) BRANT L. SPONBERG, Senior Program Officer, BPA (until December 2009) ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer, BPA BRIAN D. DEWHURST, Program Officer, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (until July 2009) JAMES C. LANCASTER, Program Officer, BPA DAVID B. LANG, Program Officer, BPA v

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TERI THOROWGOOD, Administrative Coordinator, BPA (from November 2009) CARMELA CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator, SSB CATHERINE GRUBER, Editor, SSB CARYN J. KNUTSEN, Research Associate, BPA LaVITA COATES-FOGLE, Senior Program Assistant, BPA (until October 2009) BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate, BPA vi

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SCIENCE FRONTIERS PANELS Panel on Cosmology and Fundamental Physics DAVID N. SPERGEL, Princeton University, Chair DAVID WEINBERG, Ohio State University, Vice Chair RACHEL BEAN, Cornell University NEIL CORNISH, Montana State University JONATHAN FENG, University of California, Irvine ALEX V. FILIPPENKO, University of California, Berkeley WICK C. HAXTON, University of California, Berkeley MARC P. KAMIONKOWSKI, California Institute of Technology LISA RANDALL, Harvard University EUN-SUK SEO, University of Maryland DAVID TYTLER, University of California, San Diego CLIFFORD M. WILL, Washington University Panel on the Galactic Neighborhood MICHAEL J. SHULL, University of Colorado, Chair JULIANNE DALCANTON, University of Washington, Vice Chair LEO BLITZ, University of California, Berkeley BRUCE T. DRAINE, Princeton University ROBERT FESEN, Dartmouth University KARL GEBHARDT, University of Texas JUNA KOLLMEIER, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington CRYSTAL MARTIN, University of California, Santa Barbara JASON TUMLINSON, Space Telescope Science Institute DANIEL WANG, University of Massachusetts DENNIS ZARITSKY, University of Arizona STEPHEN E. ZEPF, Michigan State University Panel on Galaxies Across Cosmic Time C. MEGAN URRY, Yale University, Chair MITCHELL C. BEGELMAN, University of Colorado, Vice Chair ANDREW J. BAKER, Rutgers University NETA A. BAHCALL, Princeton University ROMEEL DAVÉ, University of Arizona TIZIANA DI MATTEO, Carnegie Mellon University HENRIC S. W. KRAWCZYNSKI, Washington University vii

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JOSEPH MOHR, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign RICHARD F. MUSHOTZKY, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center CHRIS S. REYNOLDS, University of Maryland ALICE SHAPLEY, University of California, Los Angeles TOMMASO TREU, University of California, Santa Barbara JAQUELINE H. VAN GORKOM, Columbia University ERIC M. WILCOTS, University of Wisconsin Panel on Planetary Systems and Star Formation LEE W. HARTMANN, University of Michigan, Chair DAN M. WATSON, University of Rochester, Vice Chair HECTOR ARCE, Yale University CLAIRE CHANDLER, National Radio Astronomy Observatory DAVID CHARBONNEAU, Harvard University EUGENE CHIANG, University of California, Berkeley SUZAN EDWARDS, Smith College ERIC HERBST, Ohio State University DAVID C. JEWITT, University of California, Los Angeles JAMES P. LLOYD, Cornell University EVE C. OSTRIKER, University of Maryland DAVID J. STEVENSON, California Institute of Technology JONATHAN C. TAN, University of Florida Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolution ROGER A. CHEVALIER, University of Virginia, Chair ROBERT P. KIRSHNER, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Vice Chair DEEPTO CHAKRABARTY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SUZANNE HAWLEY, University of Washington JEFFREY R. KUHN, University of Hawaii STANLEY OWOCKI, University of Delaware MARC PINSONNEAULT, Ohio State University ELIOT QUATAERT, University of California, Berkeley SCOTT RANSOM, National Radio Astronomy Observatory HENDRIK SCHATZ, Michigan State University LEE ANNE WILLSON, Iowa State University STANFORD E. WOOSLEY, University of California, Santa Cruz viii

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Staff DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy (BPA) MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Astro2010 Study Director and Director, Space Studies Board (SSB) BRANT L. SPONBERG, Senior Program Officer, BPA (until December 2009) ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer, BPA DAVID B. LANG, Program Officer, BPA CARMELA CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator, SSB CATHERINE GRUBER, Editor CARYN J. KNUTSEN, Research Associate, BPA LaVITA COATES-FOGLE, Senior Program Assistant, BPA (until October 2009) BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate, BPA ix

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PROGRAM PRIORITIZATION PANELS Panel on Electromagnetic Observations from Space ALAN DRESSLER, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington, Chair MICHAEL BAY, Bay Engineering Innovations ALAN P. BOSS, Carnegie Institution of Washington MARK DEVLIN, University of Pennsylvania MEGAN DONAHUE, Michigan State University BRENNA FLAUGHER, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory TOM GREENE, NASA Ames Research Center PURAGRA (RAJA) GUHATHAKURTA, University of California Observatories/ Lick Observatory MICHAEL G. HAUSER, Space Telescope Science Institute HAROLD MCALISTER, Georgia State University PETER F. MICHELSON, Stanford University BEN R. OPPENHEIMER, American Museum of Natural History FRITS PAERELS, Columbia University ADAM G. RIESS, Johns Hopkins University GEORGE H. RIEKE, Steward Observatory, University of Arizona PAUL L. SCHECHTER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology TODD TRIPP, University of Massachusetts at Amherst Panel on Optical and Infrared Astronomy from the Ground PATRICK S. OSMER, Ohio State University, Chair MICHAEL SKRUTSKIE, University of Virginia, Vice Chair CHARLES BAILYN, Yale University BETSY BARTON, University of California, Irvine TODD A. BOROSON, National Optical Astronomy Observatory DANIEL EISENSTEIN, University of Arizona ANDREA M. GHEZ, University of California, Los Angeles J. TODD HOEKSEMA, Stanford University ROBERT P. KIRSHNER, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics BRUCE MACINTOSH, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory PIERO MADAU, University of California, Santa Cruz JOHN MONNIER, University of Michigan IAIN NEILL REID, Space Telescope Science Institute CHARLES E. WOODWARD, University of Minnesota x

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Panel on Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation JACQUELINE N. HEWITT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair ERIC G. ADELBERGER, University of Washington ANDREAS ALBRECHT, University of California, Davis ELENA APRILE, Columbia University JONATHAN ARONS, University of California, Berkeley BARRY C. BARISH, California Institute of Technology JOAN CENTRELLA, NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard University KATHY FLANAGAN, Space Telescope Science Institute GABRIELA GONZALEZ, Louisiana State University JAMES B. HARTLE, University of California, Santa Barbara STEVEN M. KAHN, Stanford University N. JEREMY KASDIN, Princeton University TERESA MONTARULI, University of Wisconsin–Madison ANGELA V. OLINTO, University of Chicago RENE A. ONG, University of California, Los Angeles HELEN R. QUINN, SLAC National Laboratory (retired) Panel on Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter Astronomy from the Ground NEAL J. EVANS, University of Texas, Chair JAMES M. MORAN, Harvard University, Vice Chair CRYSTAL BROGAN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory AARON S. EVANS, University of Virginia SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory JASON GLENN, University of Colorado at Boulder NICKOLAY Y. GNEDIN, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory CORNELIA C. LANG, University of Iowa MAURA MCLAUGHLIN, West Virginia University MIGUEL MORALES, University of Washington LYMAN A. PAGE JR., Princeton University JEAN L. TURNER, University of California, Los Angeles DAVID J. WILNER, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory xi

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MeMbers Infrastructure study GrouPs xxiv of Facilities, Funding, and Programs: J. Craig Wheeler, University of Texas at Austin, Chair; Rebecca A. Bernstein, University of California, Santa Cruz; David Burrows, Pennsylvania State University; Webster Cash, University of Colorado; R. Paul Drake, University of Michigan; Jeremy Goodman, Princeton University; W. Miller Goss, National Radio Astronomy Observatory; Kate Kirby, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Anthony Mezzacappa, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Robert Millis, Lowell Observatory; Catherine Pilachowski, Indiana University; Farid Salama, NASA Ames Research Center; and Ellen Zweibel, University of Wisconsin. International and Private Partnership: Robert L. Dickman, National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Chair; Michael Bolte, University of California, Santa Cruz; George Helou, California Institute of Technology; James Hesser, Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics; Wesley T. Huntress, Carnegie Institution of Washington; Richard Kelley, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Rolf-Peter Kudritzki, University of Hawai’i; Eugene H. Levy, Rice University; Antonella Nota, Space Telescope Science Institute; and Brad Peterson, Ohio State University. Education and Public Outreach: Lucy Fortson, Adler Planetarium, Co-Chair; Chris Impey, University of Arizona, Co-Chair; Carol Christian, Space Telescope Science Institute; Lynn Cominsky, Sonoma State University; Mary Dussault, Harvard- Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Richard Tresch Feinberg, Phillips Academy; Andrew Fraknoi, Foothill College; Pamela Gay, Southern Illinois University; Jeffrey Kirsch, Reuben H. Fleet Science Center; Robert Mathieu, University of Wisconsin; George Nelson, Western Washington University; Edward Prather, University of Arizona; Philip Sadler, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Keivan Stassun, Vanderbilt University; and Sidney Woolf, LSST. Astronomy and Public Policy: Daniel F. Lester, University of Texas at Austin, Chair; Jack Burns, University of Colorado; Bruce Carney, University of North Carolina; Heidi Hammel, Space Science Institute; Noel W. Hinners, Lockheed (retired); John Leibacher, National Solar Observatory; J. Patrick Looney, Brookhaven National Laboratory; Melissa McGrath, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; and Annelia Sargent, California Institute of Technology.

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Jonathan Bagger, Johns Hopkins University, James Barrowman, NASA (retired), Edmund Bertschinger, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Raymond Carlberg, University of Toronto, Henry Ferguson, Space Telescope Science Institute, Michael E. Fisher, University of Maryland, Reinhard Genzel, Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Philip R. Goode, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Joseph Hezir, EOP Group, Inc., Eugene H. Levy, Rice University, Malcolm Longair, Cavendish Laboratory, J. Patrick Looney, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Richard McCray, University of Colorado, Boulder, xxv

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acknowledGMent revIewers xxvi of Christopher McKee, University of California, Berkeley, Saul Perlmutter, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Catherine A. Pilachowski, Indiana University, Anneila I. Sargent, California Institute of Technology, Rainer Weiss, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Mark Wyatt, University of Cambridge. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommenda- tions, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology, and Bernard F. Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 2020 VISION 9 Science Objectives, 10 Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the First Stars, Galaxies, and Black Holes, 10 New Worlds: Seeking Nearby, Habitable Planets, 11 Physics of the Universe: Understanding Scientific Principles, 12 Optimizing the Science Program, 14 Proposed Program of Activities, 16 Space Projects—Large—in Rank Order, 16 Space Projects—Medium—in Rank Order, 20 Small Additions and Augmentations to Space Research Program (Unranked), 21 Ground Projects—Large—in Rank Order, 22 Ground Project—Medium, 25 Small Additions and Augmentations to Ground Research Program (Unranked), 25 Other Conclusions and Recommendations, 26 Partnership in Astronomy and Astrophysics Research, 27 Society, Astronomy, and Astronomers, 28 Sustaining Core Capabilities, 30 Preparing for Tomorrow, 32 xxvii

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contents xxviii 2 ON THE THRESHOLD 35 Discovery, 36 The Discovery of Habitable Planets, 37 A Bold New Frontier: Gravitational Radiation, 39 Opening the Time Domain: Making Cosmic Movies, 43 Giving Meaning to the Data: Cyber-Discovery, 45 Discovery Through the Power of Mathematics, Physics, and the Imagination, 46 Origins, 46 The Origin of the Universe: The Earliest Moments, 47 The First Sources of Light and the End of the Cosmic Dark Ages, 48 The Origin of Galaxies and Large-Scale Structure, 51 The Origin of Black Holes, 52 The Origin of Stars and Planets, 53 Understanding the Cosmic Order, 57 Galaxies and Black Holes, 57 Stars, 59 Planetary Systems, 66 Life, 67 Frontiers of Knowledge, 68 The Nature of Inflation, 69 The Accelerating Universe, 70 The Nature of Dark Matter, 71 The Nature of Neutrinos, 72 The Nature of Compact Objects and Probes of Relativity, 74 The Chemistry of the Universe, 76 3 PARTNERSHIP IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS: 79 COLLABORATION, COOPERATION, COORDINATION International Partnerships, 81 The Globalization of Astronomy, 81 Managing International Collaboration, 82 International Strategic Planning, 86 Public-Private Partnerships, 87 Ground-Based Optical and Infrared Astronomy, 87 Ground-Based Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter Astronomy, 92 Partnership Opportunities, 93 OIR and RMS on the Ground, 94 Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation, 97 Space Observatories, 97 Agency Partnerships and Interfaces, 98

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contents xxix Interagency Tactical Advice, 101 Stewardship of the Decadal Survey, 101 4 ASTRONOMY IN SOCIETY 103 Benefits of Astronomy to the Nation, 104 Astronomy Engages the Public in Science, 104 Engagement with Astronomy Improves Science Literacy and Proficiency, 110 Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom and Beyond, 111 Astronomy Serves as a Gateway to New Technology, 112 Astronomy and the America COMPETES Act, 113 Astronomy Addresses the Challenges of the 21st Century, 114 Astronomers and Public Policy, 115 Astronomers, 116 Demography, 116 Implications for Employment and Training, 124 Underrepresented Minorities in Astronomy, 125 Women in Astronomy, 128 5 SUSTAINING THE CORE RESEARCH PROGRAM 131 Individual Investigator Programs, 132 Theory, 135 Emerging Trends in Theoretical Research, 135 Theoretical Challenges for the Next Decade, 137 Individual Investigator Programs in Theory and Computation, 140 The Rapid Rise of Astrophysical Computing, 140 Research Networks in Theoretical and Computational Astrophysics, 142 Data and Software, 142 Data Archives, 143 Data Reduction and Analysis Software, 148 Medium-Scale Activities, 148 Technical Workforce Development, 148 NASA Explorer and Suborbital Programs, 149 NSF Mid-Scale Innovation Program, 151 Technology Development, 154 NASA-Funded Space-Based Astrophysics Technology Development, 154 NSF-Funded Ground-Based Astrophysics Technology Development, 157 DOE-Funded Technology Development, 158 Laboratory Astrophysics, 159 The Scope and Needs of Laboratory Astrophysics, 159 The Funding Challenge, 161

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contents xxx 6 PREPARING FOR TOMORROW 163 Operating and Upcoming Projects, Missions, and Facilities, 163 Department of Energy, 163 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 165 National Science Foundation, 168 Toward Future Projects, Missions, and Facilities, 173 Department of Energy, 173 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 174 National Science Foundation, 175 7 REALIZING THE OPPORTUNITIES 183 Process, 183 Prioritization Criteria, 183 Program Prioritization, 184 Cost, Risk, and Technical Readiness Evaluation, 186 Budgets, 187 Science Objectives for the Decade, 189 Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the First Stars, Galaxies, and Black Holes, 189 New Worlds: Seeking Nearby, Habitable Planets, 191 The Physics of the Universe: Understanding Scientific Principles, 195 The Larger Science Program, 199 Discovery, 200 Origins, 201 Understanding the Cosmic Order, 203 Frontiers of Knowledge, 204 Recommended Program of Activities, 204 Recommendations for New Space Activities—Large Projects, 205 Recommendations for New Space Activities—Medium Projects, 215 Recommendations for New Space Activities—Small Projects, 218 Small Additions and Augmentations to NASA’s Core Research Programs, 219 Recommendations for New Ground-Based Activities—Large Projects, 223 Recommendation for New Ground-Based Activities—Medium Project, 234 Small Additions and Augmentations to NSF’s Core Research Program, 235

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contents xxxi Recommendations for the Agencies, 237 NASA Astrophysics, 237 NSF Astronomy, 238 DOE High Energy Physics, 240 Epilogue, 240 APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Frontiers Panels’ Findings 245 B Summary of Program Prioritization Panels’ Recommendations 249 C The Cost, Risk, and Technical Readiness Evaluation Process 253 D Mid-Scale Project Descriptions 261 E Statement of Task and Scope 265 F Acronyms 269 INDEX 275

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Astronomy is in a golden age with spectacular discoveries such as the first extrasolar planets, pinning down the age of the Universe, dark energy, galactic black holes, and galaxies formed only a few hundred million years after the Big Bang as just some of the drivers for new questions. . . . Whatever else happens, we are privileged to be a part of this enterprise. —John Huchra (AAS Newsletter, Issue 152, May/June 2010) The Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics dedicates this report to a dear friend and valued colleague, John P. Huchra, who served as a vice chair for the decadal survey. xxxiii

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