Recommendationb

Science

Technical Riskc

Appraisal of Costs Through Constructiona (U.S. Federal Share, 2012-2021)

Appraisal of Annual Operations Costsd (U.S. Federal Share)

Cross-Reference in Chapter 7

4. ACTA

—Science early 2020s

—NSF/DOE; U.S. join European Čerenkov Telescope Array

Indirect detection of dark matter; particle acceleration and active galactic nucleus science

Medium low

$400M ($100M)

Unknown

Page 232

a The survey’s construction-cost appraisals for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), Giant Segmented Mirror Telescope (GSMT), and Atmospheric Čerenkov Telescope Array (ACTA) are based on the survey’s cost, risk, and technical readiness evaluation (i.e., the cost appraisal and technical evaluation, or CATE, analysis) and project input, in FY2010 dollars; cost appraisals for the Mid-Scale Innovations Program augmentation are committee-generated and based on available community input. For GSMT the cost appraisals are $1.1 billion for the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) and $1.4 billion for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). Construction costs for GSMT could continue into the next decade, at levels of up to $95 million for the federal share. The share for the U.S. government is shown in parentheses when it is different from the total.

b The survey’s appraisals of the schedule to first science are based on CATE analysis and project input.

c The risk scale used was low, medium low, medium, medium high, and high.

d The contractor had no independent basis for evaluating the operations cost estimates provided for any ground-based project. The survey’s appraisals for operations costs, in FY2010 dollars, were constructed by the survey committee on the basis of project input and the experience and expertise of its members. For GSMT the range in operations costs is based on estimates from GMT ($36 million) and TMT ($55 million). The share for the U.S. government is shown in parentheses when it is different from the total.

TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activities—Medium-Scale (Priority Order)

Recommendation

Science

Appraisal of Costsa

Cross-Reference in Chapter 7

1. New Worlds Technology Development Program

Preparation for a planet-imaging mission beyond 2020, including precursor science activities

$100M to $200M

Page 215

2. Inflation Probe Technology Development Program

Cosmic microwave background (CMB)/ inflation technology development and preparation for a possible mission beyond 2020

$60M to $200M

Page 217

a The survey’s cost appraisals are in FY2010 dollars and are committee-generated and based on available community input.



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