3
Climate Change Metrics at the Intersection of the Human and Earth Systems

Scientists are accustomed to focusing their work by discipline, that is, by a particular topic of deep expertise. Thus, based on the knowledge in the respective disciplines, the committee presents the metrics that it considers to offer significant potential for giving advance warning of climate-related changes in the Earth system most likely to affect the domains of human vulnerabilities identified in Chapter 2. The eight panels worked from the assumption that the fundamental science of climate processes and the associated impacts on the natural world serve as the focus of an already existing and extensive set of observing systems. The panels did not attempt to re-create the efforts of programs such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS).

The panels sought to be as specific as possible with respect to the underlying component measurements and observations needed to construct a given metric. They also sought to identify illustrative locations where measurements would be most useful. Some metrics are indicators of clearly measurable change; others are more exploratory but offer new perspectives. Some metrics cannot be observed from space, but require instrumentation in situ. Some metrics are clearly quantifiable and others are more general but conceptually useful. The tables, of necessity, will be revisited as scientific data accumulate.

The introduction to each table describes the particular process and criteria used by the panel when categorizing and/or coarsely prioritizing the metrics. Given the diverse nature of metrics, a uniform process for categorizing and prioritizing the metrics presented in this report is not possible. However, certain characteristics tend to make a metric particularly useful, including:

  • Direct (e.g., loss of mass of an ice sheet leads to rising sea level)

  • Significant (i.e., represents a large change in one or more resources including water, energy, shelter, health, or food)

  • Dominant (i.e., outweighs other factors and processes)

  • Measureable (i.e., capable of being quantified)

  • Historical (i.e., provides foundation of understanding and measurement)

  • Well documented (i.e., data are complete and consistent)



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3 Climate Change Metrics at the Intersection of the Human and Earth Systems Scientists are accustomed to focusing their work by discipline, that is, by a particular topic of deep expertise. Thus, based on the knowledge in the respective disciplines, the committee presents the metrics that it considers to offer significant potential for giving advance warning of climate-related changes in the Earth system most likely to affect the domains of human vulnerabilities identified in Chapter 2. The eight panels worked from the assumption that the fundamental science of climate processes and the associated impacts on the natural world serve as the focus of an already existing and extensive set of observing systems. The panels did not attempt to re-create the efforts of programs such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). The panels sought to be as specific as possible with respect to the underlying component measurements and observations needed to construct a given metric. They also sought to identify illustrative locations where measurements would be most useful. Some metrics are indicators of clearly measurable change; others are more exploratory but offer new perspectives. Some metrics cannot be observed from space, but require instrumentation in situ. Some metrics are clearly quantifiable and others are more general but conceptually useful. The tables, of necessity, will be revisited as scientific data accumulate. The introduction to each table describes the particular process and criteria used by the panel when categorizing and/or coarsely prioritizing the metrics. Given the diverse nature of metrics, a uniform process for categorizing and prioritizing the metrics presented in this report is not possible. However, certain characteristics tend to make a metric particularly useful, including: Direct (e.g., loss of mass of an ice sheet leads to rising sea level) Significant (i.e., represents a large change in one or more resources including water, energy, shelter, health, or food) Dominant (i.e., outweighs other factors and processes) Measureable (i.e., capable of being quantified) Historical (i.e., provides foundation of understanding and measurement) Well documented (i.e., data are complete and consistent) 29

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30 Monitoring Climate Change Impacts OCEANOGRAPHY The two panels initially charged with identifying ocean metrics (physical/chemical and biological) worked together to develop a single table covering physical, chemical, and biological processes. This integration recognizes that the fluid dynamics of the ocean underlie its chemistry and biology and that the three cannot be considered in isolation. The panels focused on climate metrics that are highly integrated with the impacts of climate change (Table 3-1). For example, the panels proposed a metric for the health of fisheries, which depends in part on the primary productivity of the ocean. In contrast, the GCOS equivalent focuses on ocean productivity as a fundamental indicator. The panels gave higher priority to metrics that either integrate human impacts (e.g., fisheries) or could have significant impacts on the ecosystem services that provide value to society (e.g., the impacts of harmful algal blooms). Therefore, the ocean metrics are strongly weighted toward the human dimension of ocean processes, not simply the fundamental processes of climate change. The panels then further refined the metrics toward those for which there is significant potential for risk and vulnerability. For example, the panels considered the impacts of climate change (i.e., rising sea level) on the infrastructures of ports and harbors, which are crucial to global trade, but not on coastal recreation. Many of the proposed indicators focus on emerging issues, as well as on new management and development strategies. In other words, they do not simply recapitulate ongoing indicators. For example, new approaches to management, such as of marine protected areas, should be studied now in order to assess their effectiveness as well as their impacts on ocean ecosystems. Finally, the ocean panels recognized that many of their metrics are “process based” rather than “place based.” For example, because the location and intensity of fisheries shift over time, we cannot define a set of key places to monitor. Rather, we must ensure that there is ongoing feedback between the systems being observed and the systems observing them. Thus, the ocean indicators are often iterative in nature and should be refined as knowledge improves. The panels relied on the six criteria to prioritize the metrics. It became clear that metrics could be distinguished based on the strength of their connection to climate processes and to environmental sustainability. As a result, the panels identified three priority levels: (1) high climate, high environmental sustainability; (2) low climate, high environmental sustainability; and (3) low climate, moderate environmental sustainability. The panels chose to not include metrics that have high climate, low environmental sustainability because the special emphasis of the report is on the environmental sustainability connection. As noted earlier, many other reports have addressed traditional climate change indicators. Two examples will highlight this process. Sea level rise has a direct link to the climate system, and it is significant, dominant, measurable, historical, and well documented. Therefore, it was placed in the high climate, high environmental sustainability category. In comparison, fisheries health is significant, measurable (with varying quality), historical, and well documented, but climate change is not the only (or

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31 Climate Change Metrics at the Intersection of Human and Earth Systems most significant) pressure on fisheries, so it was placed in the low climate, high environmental sustainability category. The panels considered the following two metrics to be important, but not correlated strongly enough at this time with climate change and environmental sustainability to warrant inclusion in the table: (1) location and extent of offshore energy production and supply including onshore infrastructure, and (2) location and extent of desalination facilities in coastal zones. The location and extent of offshore energy production and supply could be measured by ocean productivity, high-resolution imagery of energy production infrastructure, seafloor morphology, and habitat imagery of the coastal zone and shoreline. Areas where it would be useful to apply this metric are those that are expected see increased development in the next 5- to 10 years, such as Denmark, the Gulf Coast, and France. Although offshore energy development may not have a strong connection to environmental sustainability and climate change at this time, it may become important in the future as sources of energy that do not depend on fossil fuel are developed. Many of these new sources will likely be located in coastal oceans and may impact ocean ecosystems. The location and extent of desalination facilities in coastal zones also do not currently have strong ties to environmental sustainability and climate change but may in the future. The Global Desalination Report and Global Water Intelligence (UK) maintain a detailed and comprehensive data set of every desalination plant in the world by name, location, capacity, technology, form, and cost. This data set will be important in monitoring the effects and impacts of these plants in the future. There are many reasons to build such facilities, but climate change will increase the pressure to do so. As the population grows and climate change affects rainfall in some areas, there will be more demands for freshwater. Traditional sources will become increasingly scarce, and the possible proliferation of desalination plants to fill the gap could have a significant impact on near-shore ecosystems. It would be important to focus measurements in places such as Oman, the Gulf States, and California

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TABLE 3-1 Key Metrics: Oceans Oceans Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Indicator of Measurements Environmental Sustainability High climate, high environmental sustainability Temporal and spatial patterns of changes in sea level Low-lying oceanic island groups Global sea level height Sea level rise (see will be an indicator of future risks to coastal and Arctic coasts (e.g., Glacial (ice) measurements Hydrology, populations and infrastructure. Maldives, Micronesian Islands) High-resolution maps of Cryosphere, and Higher sea level amplifies coastal erosion, storm Deltaic coasts (e.g., Bangladesh) terrestrial features Natural Disasters damage, permanent flooding, and land inundation. Large coastal ports (e.g., New Advanced circulation models tables) Orleans, Columbia River, of inundation Houston, Los Angeles) Sea floor morphology (depth Coastal urban centers (e.g., and substrate) Venice, New York) The ocean is a long-term sink for atmospheric CO2, Places with varying levels of Acidification pH and pH will continue to drop for centuries. Trends human pressure and predicted Dissolved oxygen in space and time of this metric will help predict its impacts on ecosystems as a Ocean productivity impact on coastal ecosystems and ecosystem result of acidification (e.g., Acoustic data services. Virgin Islands, Great Barrier Reef, Pacific Islands, Fiji, Philippines, Indonesia, Maldives, Georges Bank, northwest and southwest coasts of United States, Atlantic Bight south of Boston, New York City, Bering Sea)

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Oceans Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Indicator of Measurements Environmental Sustainability Monitoring this metric provides an indication of North Atlantic Ocean, Arctic Velocity Changes and abrupt change, shifts in atmospheric circulation Ocean, Antarctic Ocean, Temperature redistribution of (storms), impacts on continental ice sheets and Greenland, Gulf Stream Changes and redistribution of heat (stability of shelves (Antarctica and Greenland) and sea ice. transport, Labrador, Antarctic heat global ocean peninsula Salinity circulation High-resolution maps of sea patterns) level This metric is an indicator of vulnerability, sea level Temperate and high latitudes Ocean heat content Surface and subsurface ocean rise (thermal expansion) as well as impacts on Hawaii temperatures ecosystems (shifts in species boundaries). Coral reef ecosystems Air-sea fluxes Polar areas Coast of Gulf of Mexico, Southern Monitoring this metric provides an indication of Ground surface topography Changes in extent California, Barrow, Carolina significant impacts on terrestrial ecosystems at the (via digital elevation and composition of Barrier Islands, Netherlands, land/ocean interface as a result of growing human models and high-resolution shorelines and North Japan, Venice populations and activities (urbanization, satellite imagery) wetlands due to sea transformation of natural wetlands into managed Underwater depth of ocean level rise, erosion, environments). floors (via bathymetric and human This is an indicator of increased vulnerability to mapping; including activities (e.g., coastal inundation as well as impacts on coastal substrate) infrastructure ecosystem services. Monitoring this metric will Habitat mapping construction) help project future impacts to continuing sea level rise. Low climate, high environmental sustainability Fish is the main food interface with the ocean, Nations with significant fishing Health of wild and Fishing intensity (spatial and conversion of wetlands to aquaculture, impacts of and aquaculture activities (e.g., temporal patterns) managed fisheries open-ocean aquaculture. Spatial and temporal Norway, Iceland, Chile, Ocean productivity (including changes in this metric will provide an indication of Ecuador, Indonesia, Thailand, Coastal land use aquaculture) long-term ecosystem health and environmental China, Japan, Korea) Extent of aquaculture sustainability. Statistics on aquaculture

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Oceans Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Indicator of Measurements Environmental Sustainability Although most of the present hypoxic zones in the Extent and depth of Temperature Mississippi River Delta, Gulf of ocean are the result of terrestrial runoff of nutrients hypoxia Salinity Mexico, Oregon and (which stimulate primary productivity), warming of Oxygen Washington coasts, west coast of India, eastern tropical Pacific Dissolved CO2 the surface ocean and increasing CO2 and Arabian Sea, Baltic Sea Ocean productivity concentrations may greatly expand the extent of Wadden Sea, Chesapeake Bay Seafloor morphology (depth hypoxia at depth (Brewer and Peltzer, 2009). The and substrate) increased use of fertilizers and particularly nitrogen with increasing CO2 and growing demand for food from larger populations may make this directly dependent upon climate change. Mapping of hypoxic zones will provide an indication of changes in ocean chemistry and possible impacts on ecosystems. It will likely have a large and differential impact on fisheries (varies depending on location). Occurrence and Nutrient levels Gulf of Maine, west coast of Changes in ocean circulation and temperature as well extent of harmful Phytoplankton abundance Florida, Puget Sound, Southeast as terrestrial runoff are increasing the frequency and algal blooms Toxins Asia, Gulf of Oman, Arabian extent of harmful algal blooms. This is at the Phytoplankton species Gulf intersection of climate change and environmental Ocean productivity sustainability. Low climate, moderate environmental sustainability

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Oceans Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Indicator of Measurements Environmental Sustainability MPAs were initially conceived as a management tool Locations of extensive marine Ocean productivity Effectiveness of for the long-term sustainability of fisheries and their reserves and protected areas Ecological indicators such as marine protected associated ecosystems. In addition MPAs provide (e.g., New Zealand) biodiversity and fish areas (MPAs) refugia for commercially harvested fish species, and Channel Islands off California, reproductive potential communities that are under pressure from climate northwest part of Hawaiian Seafloor mapping change (e.g., warming temperatures, acidification) archipelago MPAs can also increase ecosystem resilience in the Belize face of climate change by reducing other human- caused environmental stresses such as fishing and resource extraction. Tracking this metric over time can gauge its effectiveness as a means to sustain ecosystem services and resilience in the face of climate change.

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36 Monitoring Climate Change Impacts LAND-SURFACE AND TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS The Land-Surface Panel recognized that the terrestrial surface is intrinsically heterogeneous at multiple scales. Unlike atmospheric and oceanic systems, which have the equations of motion as a unifying concept, change in terrestrial systems tends to be local or regional in its context. There is a long-standing tradition in ecological science of associating observed patterns with underlying processes, but understanding which processes are manifested at what scales of patterns is, and will likely continue to be, a research work in progress. One of the consequences of this aspect of the state of the science, and of the nature of the systems themselves, is a need to observe change extensively and synoptically to obtain indications of global-scale pattern changes. The panel considered three broad classes of metrics: 1. Metrics of change that focus on synchronous change in similar, dispersed ecological systems. Such metrics gain interpretive importance when the underlying causes of these changes can be related directly to overarching drivers, which in turn are being modified by global environmental change. This class of metrics is very small and takes advantage of locations where so- called “natural experiments” are occurring. Such situations are at locations in space (or occurrences in time), that can be compared if the important environmental driving variables are known across a large set of globally distributed locations. One example would be a high-mountain, plant-growth or -vigor monitoring system that focuses on the ecosystems within which plant growth is increasing because of the positive effects of CO2 on productivity or water-use efficiency. Because the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere is lowest in the highest altitude vegetation, the direct response of vegetation to elevated levels of CO2 might be detected earlier in high-elevation locations than elsewhere. 2. Metrics that capture the ecological and environmental state under conditions that either allow control (in a statistical sense) or correction (using existing models of ecosystem processes) to reduce the uncertainty and variability in large area evaluations. Such applications might involve overlaying base maps of controlling factors across a regional monitoring system to control for environmental conditions. Examples of variables would include water resource levels, soil moisture, or soil nutrient status. In practice one would stratify the observations according to conditions and then use the data structures to look for “signatures” of different kinds of changes. As examples, an altered climatic condition might produce increased plant growth in nutrient-rich sites but not nutrient-poor sites, or droughts might affect south-facing slopes differently than north-facing slopes. 3. Metrics that quantify the state of ecosystems. These would include measurements of ecosystem attributes such as diversity, the nature of land cover, species composition, and the indicator species. Abrupt changes in these attributes of ecological systems would warn of an alteration of the ecosystem performance. This class of metrics challenges our ability to ascribe the cause

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37 Climate Change Metrics at the Intersection of Human and Earth Systems of the changes in an unequivocal way. For example, in subtropical and warm- temperate grasslands there has been a global increase in “woody weeds”— increased woody plants and decreased grasses. This is an expected result for the direct effects of increased CO2 on plant processes, which should favor C3- pathway trees over C4-pathway warm-season grasses. However, it might also be a consequence of increased cattle grazing or changes in fire regimes. Many of the panel’s metrics were intended to be applied over a sampling of the planetary surface, but there was an attempt to reduce the open-endedness of the implied monitoring by focusing on systems for which the observation of change would likely have more power to ascribe “cause” to the observed patterns. For this reason several of the metrics are place-based and thought of as being applied in particular locations or by environmental condition. The selection of these place-based metrics obviously derives from the current perception of important issues (e.g., direct effects of CO2 on plant processes, climate change effects at transition zones of vegetation, changes in patterns of land use, loss of biotic diversity and change in diversity hot-spots, moisture conditions, crop productivity, livestock populations, and locations with potentially large changes in albedo). Clearly these priorities for monitoring may change with increased knowledge of terrestrial ecosystem functions and as new types of change are observed from the more global reconnaissance that is discussed in Table 3-2. PREPUBLICATION COPY

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TABLE 3-2 Key Metrics: Land-Surface and Terrestrial Ecosystems Land-Surface Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Measurements Indicator of Environmental Sustainability Metrics of change that focus on synchronous change in similar, dispersed ecological systems Tall tropical and subtropical Increased vegetation Time series of fine-scale This would likely result in increased amount of vegetation mountains (vegetation in lowest vigor in response to changes in LAI (leaf area and a shifting of vegetation zones to harsher conditions. index) This is one example of monitoring “natural experiments” CO2 direct effects natural CO2 partial pressures) Compositional changes in life Vegetation changes in locations on CO2 direct effects. Unfortunately, as is the case with forms most natural experiments there is no contemporaneous with naturally elevated CO2 control for global change. Many locations should be monitored for synchronous change. Species that experience range shifts are more sustainable in Latitudinal and Geographical locations for Altitudinal transects that have relation to global warming, but only to a point. If they altitudinal shifts in representative species historical data (many of these are meet impassable barriers that impede them, or reach the species distributions Population density and size archived in the Swiss-based tops of mountains, they may be trapped and become for representative species Mountain Climate Network and unsustainable. Individual members of communities may have worldwide distribution) have different abilities to change geographic ranges, so Latitudinal transects communities might become disrupted. Cloud base height on Measurements of cloud basal Eastern Andes and Ecuador Cloud forests are important centers of diversity for taxa tropical mountains height Costa Rica such as amphibians, insects, and plants, and changes in Cloud cover Guatemala margins of Amazonian cloud lines can lead to great losses of biodiversity. Basin Montane cloud forests are evolutionary hot spots that can serve as “species pumps” for adjacent lowlands. Metrics that capture the ecological and environmental state under conditions that either allow control (in a statistical sense) or correction (using existing models of ecosystem processes) to reduce the uncertainty and variability in large area evaluations

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Land-Surface Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Measurements Indicator of Environmental Sustainability Soil moisture is a major controlling variable for large-scale Agricultural regions worldwide Soil moisture change Soil moisture patterns in vegetation. Severe weather regions (see Hydrology table) Plant productivity Soil moisture dynamics are critical variables for many of Areas where monitoring recharge is Decomposition rate the ecological models used for global carbon budgets important (developing nations Soil formation rate and other global ecological processes. and places where surface water resources are contaminated or in decline) Agricultural regions where groundwater mining is active (e.g., Sahel region of Africa, Ganges-Brahmaputra plain, Yellow River) Albedo Boreal Forest in Eastern Siberian As a case example of other similar interactions, changes Positive feedback Species composition Larch zone that involve positive feedbacks can amplify the between terrestrial consequences of change, promote system change, and surface change and destabilize the system. climate change

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Natural Disasters Measurements Illustrative Locations for Measurements Why This Metric Is an Indicator of Metric Environmental Sustainability Sea level rise is a consequence of Low-lying oceanic island groups and Arctic Persistent changes in sea level measured Global sea level oceanic volume increase. Global coasts (e.g., Maldives) at sites not affected by tectonic (see Oceans, melting of alpine and continental Micronesian Islands movement Cryosphere, and glaciers and ice sheets, together with Deltaic coasts (e.g., Bangladesh) Associated changes in near-shore Hydrology tables) warming of sea water is producing a Large coastal ports (e.g., New Orleans, groundwater-table height, salinity, global rise in sea level. Columbia River, Houston, Los Angeles) other water chemistry Higher sea level amplifies coastal Coastal urban centers (e.g., Venice, New Secondary changes in river gradients erosion, storm damage, permanent York) caused by sea level rise flooding, and land inundation. Riverine floods Annual country-wide numbers of flood Major river systems of the world (e.g., Nile, Changes in flood frequency, severity, events, their extent, depth, duration Amazon, Mississippi, Yangtze, Ob, and occurrence may be indictors of Causal storm extent, intensity (rainfall) Yellow, Yenisei, Paraná, Irtish, Congo) global climate change. Resulting landcover, land-use changes (deforestation, levees, dams), and changes in water quality Arid areas of the world (e.g., Africa Sahel, Changes in flood frequency, severity Drought U.S. Drought Monitor: integrates drought- Australia, western United States) and occurrence may be indictors of severity and percent of U.S. lands global climate change. under each drought category Long-term decreases in precipitation; surface-water changes (e.g., rivers, lakes)—depth, areal extent, volume, quality Groundwater depth and groundwater quality in drought areas; associated changes in landcover, land use.

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Natural Disasters Measurements Illustrative Locations for Measurements Why This Metric Is an Indicator of Metric Environmental Sustainability Global changes in wind patterns, sea Worldwide, with emphasis on areas where Number of epidemics Epidemic disease level rise, etc., can transport disease epidemics may be related to Type (see Human vectors. environmental vectors such as Bay of Impacts (number hospitalized, casualties, Health and Epidemics and pandemics affect Bengal fatalities) Dimensions table) population resilience and viability and Historic recurrence the ability of a society to respond to Area affected climate and other stressors Outbreaks of these pathogens are often linked with climatic variability and thus can be indicative of changes in the climate system. Insect infestations Number of insect infestations, insect type, Worldwide, with emphasis on areas where Global changes in wind patterns and sea landcover, and crop impacts (area, insect infestations may be related to level rise can provoke insect species affected) environmental vectors such as African population changes and catastrophic Historic recurrence Sahel increases in insect number; environmental vectors can transport insects great distances into areas traditionally not impacted by the pests.

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68 Monitoring Climate Change Impacts HUMAN HEALTH AND OTHER DIMENSIONS Some climate changes that manifest initially as a physical impact will eventually have a human impact when viewed through the lens of environmental sustainability. Human health and dimensions metrics differ from other more traditional metrics (oceans, cryosphere, land-surface, atmosphere, and hydrology) because they deal primarily with the human consequences of climate change. Human metrics, as presented in Table 3-8, represent measurements of environmental threat with respect to vulnerability. For example, an earthquake itself represents a serious threat but it is the population density, building code and structures built according to that code, and other such factors that are the indicators for the human dimension. Such measurements must be made over time if both trends and variability are to be determined. Thus, the metrics taken alone cannot represent the overall effect but can do so in the aggregate, with regional differences taken into account. Many of the human health metrics and measurements are drawn from English et al., 2009. As the Human Health Panel developed examples of locations around the globe that are suitable for gathering the underlying observations, the panel also selected candidate sentinel cities/regions (in bold, italic text in Table 3-8). These sentinel sites would be important for monitoring the metrics listed in the table, providing a cross- section of human health and dimensions indicators for a representative set of cities/regions. The cities/regions provide a coarse listing, which can be refined to a more specific scheme in the future, and individual metrics can be included at additional locations. The table comprises three general categories: Human Health, Other Human Dimensions, and Climate Change, with human health metrics being more specific than the other human dimensions metrics. For example, climate change impact on human diseases such as malaria, dengue, and viral encephalitis can be highly specific in terms of rate, intensity, geographical distribution, and timeline of an outbreak or epidemic. Thus, measurements of human health are typically more specific, and impacts on health outcomes can often be defined in greater detail. Where climate conditions can be evidenced more severely, such as flooding in Bangladesh, the human health impact can be dramatic and devastating. Underlying problems of malnutrition, along with vulnerability to natural disaster, such as an earthquake zone, will compound the human impact. Human dimensions include many sectors such as crime and violence, and their metrics, therefore, are intentionally broad. These metrics do not capture correlation or causation; rather, they are a set of observables describing outcomes relative to human systems and health. Overall, each of the climate change metrics can be interpreted as having implications for both human health and other human dimensions.

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TABLE 3-8 Key Metrics: Human Health and Dimensions Human Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Measurements Indicator of Environmental Sustainability Human Health Human health is the ultimate United States and where military Morbidity and mortality data (including Department Epidemics/Pandemics integrator of environmental records are available of Defense records) 1) Disease and resource conditions. Disability-adjusted life years (e.g., childhood transmission—climate Human health depends on Global with emphasis on areas mortality, maternal mortality) sensitive disease ecology and where epidemics may be related Human cases of environmental infectious 2) Climate stress related transmission dynamics. to environmental vectors disease/positive test results in (see Natural Disasters Epidemics and pandemics affect reservoirs/sentinels/vectors table) population resilience and Records of legal and illegal transport of domestic and Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, viability and the ability of a feral animals; animal husbandry/factory farm Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, society to respond to climate practices (use of antibiotics, types of New Orleans, South Asia and other stressors. feedstocks/offal, housing conditions); consumption (India/Bangladesh), Luanda Outbreaks of these pathogens are of bush meat Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, often linked with climatic Delhi, Asmara, Eritrea, variability and thus can be Hyderabad indicative of changes in the climate system.

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Human Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Measurements Indicator of Environmental Sustainability Human health depends on air Areas of industrialization (e.g., Air pollutants (particulates, ozone) Incidence of respiratory quality. Himalaya and North Indian Air pollutant origins (local vs. remote, e.g.., 44 pm disease (see Atmosphere Levels of respiratory disease Ocean) ozone in Los Angeles vs. advection of the Asian table) affect population resilience brown cloud across the Pacific) and viability and the ability of Super-metropolitan areas (e.g., Respiratory/allergic disease and mortality related to a society to respond to climate Japan, United Kingdom, increased air pollution and pollens and other stressors. Southern California, Dhaka General morbidity and mortality data (including Respiratory diseases are related Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Beijing, Department of Defense records) to air quality, which will India industrial centers) Disability-adjusted life years (childhood mortality, change with change in maternal mortality) temperature, hydrology, Frequency of temperature inversions, blocking highs Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, atmospheric chemistry, and (i.e., weather patterns conducive to trapping of Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, rate of pollution, pollutants near surface) New Orleans, South Asia industrialization, and Deforestation (India/Bangladesh), Luanda development. Levels of exercise and fitness in urban environment Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, (including rates of bicycle usage, public transport, Delhi, Asmara, Eritrea, car) Hyderabad Cancer rates

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Human Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Measurements Indicator of Environmental Sustainability Human health depends on water Middle East Waterborne diseases Surface and ground water amounts and distribution quality and infrastructure (see Asia (i.e., drought index estimates, surface water levels, Hydrology table). precipitation and evaporation rates, soil moisture, The rate of waterborne disease and hydrology model estimates) Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, affects the ability of a society Water- use practices after disasters (e.g., floods, Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, to respond to stressors, and it earthquakes) including changes in access to potable New Orleans, South Asia in part is affected by water and wastewater management infrastructure (India/Bangladesh), Luanda temperature and hydrologic and their utilization. Surface water measures of Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, changes. enteric pathogens and other markers of human and Delhi, Asmara, Eritrea, animal waste both before and after a disaster. Hyderabad Frequency and amount of extreme rainfall, wastewater/sewer system overflow Population migration (e.g., see Bhaduri et al.., 2002), population distribution and density in urban, peri- urban, and rural regions Municipal water treatment practices (e.g. available waste treatment processes, and percentages of households and industries using each process), and community water supply system functional integrity, distribution and amount of water impervious surfaces (paved), urban/peri-urban runoff control Medical and Public Health Infrastructure (determinants of preparedness and vulnerability such as per capita hospital beds, doctors, nurses, triage centers, air conditioned safe havens; blood, water, food, and drug stocks; municipal warning systems)

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Human Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Measurements Indicator of Environmental Sustainability Measurements of events in the Environmental health Greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., see EPA, 2009) Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, extreme are useful metrics of Droughts: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, human resilience. Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) New Orleans, South Asia Maximum and minimum temperatures, heat index (India/Bangladesh), Luanda Stagnation air mass events Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, Delhi, Asmara, Eritrea, O3 estimates due to climate change Increase in heat alerts/warnings Hyderabad Pollen counts, ragweed presence Frequency, severity, distribution, and duration of wildfires Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB): human shellfish poisonings, HAB outbreak monitoring in freshwater and ocean waters (see Hydrology and Oceans tables) Other Human Dimensions This metric measures the Global Resource demands Measures of resource size and imputed demand, fragility of a society and its Africa including rate of consumption vulnerability to additional Balance of water, timber, and other resource stress from climate change and withdrawals relative to renewals Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, variability. Ratio of national debt to gross domestic product Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, Changes in resource demands Unemployment rate New Orleans, South Asia may reflect responses to the Percentage of homeless as a result of flooding, (India/Bangladesh), Luanda changing climate. wildfires, etc. Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, Water is vital and is an example Trends in gross domestic product per capita Delhi, Asmara, Eritrea, of a resource that is climate- Trends in labor productivity (product divided by Hyderabad sensitive (see Hydrology employment) table). Inflation level and rate of change Percentage of population below poverty level (e.g., see NRC, 1999)

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Human Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Measurements Indicator of Environmental Sustainability Monitoring this metric provides Global Population density (remote sensing of housing and Population distribution an indication of where people Outer Banks, Congo, densely development; Earth’s city lights, urbanization— and vulnerabilities (see are impacting the environment populated Asian megadeltas, people per road mile; available road transport) Natural Disasters table) and how they are responding polar regions, U.S. Gulf Coast, Population living in vulnerable areas: sea level rise to that environment. southeastern United States and flooding It is important to look at Migration (related to natural disasters; incursion onto populations that are in areas and from coastlines; e.g., see Bhaduri et al., 2002) Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, that are vulnerable to sea level Elderly living alone, poverty status, children, infants, Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, rise and other natural disasters and individuals with disabilities New Orleans, South Asia to gauge their level of Infant mortality (India/Bangladesh), Luanda resilience. Travel time to cities greater than 50,000 people Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, Gross domestic product Delhi, Asmara, Eritrea, Hyderabad Food/agriculture is vital and is Global Food security and Land-use trends (satellite Imaps, land fertilization an example of a resource that Southeast Asia (Tibetan Plateau, agriculture rates, deforestation, rate of conversion of croplands is climate-sensitive. To Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, to other uses) measure environmental Salween, Mekong, Yangzte, Agriculture practices (crop type, crop rotation sustainability that reflects Yellow Rivers) systems, number of plantings per year) economic, political, social, and Africa Irrigation (type, ratio of renewable water supply to environmental drivers, one North China Plain withdrawals, aquifer load/reserve, fraction of must consider supply and agricultural land irrigated, river diversions, demand of a given resource. damming practices); and monitor tradeoffs of Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, irrigation (change in the incidence of vectorborne Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, diseases linked to irrigation) New Orleans, South Asia Precipitation, snowpack, snowmelt, river discharge (India/Bangladesh), Luanda rates, soil moisture Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, Soil erosion rates Delhi, Asmara, Eritrea, Percentage of population chronically underfed Hyderabad Temperature

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Human Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Measurements Indicator of Environmental Sustainability Political stability affects Global State/Societal stability Regime type (democracy, autocracy, etc.), infant population vulnerability. Africa mortality, conflict in neighboring states, and Middle East political/economical discrimination (e.g., see Goldstone et al., 2010) Incidence of violence Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, Governance (changes through time to rule of law, Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, constitutions, type of governance, territorial extent New Orleans, South Asia of government control, and anti-government (India/Bangladesh), Luanda groups) Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, Crime rates Delhi, Asmara, Eritrea, Illegal deforestations and other land uses Hyderabad Population migration (e.g., see Bhaduri et al., 2002) Aspects of urban design (risk of urban heat island effect and/or stormwater runoff) Climate Change Climate change policies related Climate change Greenhouse gas emissions by nations, especially Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, to energy efficiency and mitigation compared with voluntary commitments in support Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, renewable energy are often of international policy agreements New Orleans, South Asia economically beneficial, Levels and trends in energy and carbon prices (India/Bangladesh), Luanda improve energy security, and Trends in the use of non carbon-emitting energy Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, reduce local pollutant technologies Delhi, Asmara, Eritrea, emissions. Effects on disadvantaged populations of mitigation Hyderabad Other energy supply mitigation policies

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Human Metric Measurements Illustrative Locations for Why This Metric Is an Measurements Indicator of Environmental Sustainability options can be designed to Implications for human health (as one illustrative achieve sustainable sector): development benefits such as Health co-benefits of carbon emission reduction, avoiding displacement of local notably from improved air quality and greater populations, job creation, and opportunities for “active transport,” and thus health benefits. improved fitness Changes in land use with health implications Changes in occupational mixes with health implications (reductions in coal mining) Many of the health effects of Climate change Number of adaptation projects receiving assistance Bogota, Shanghai, Mexico City, climate change are those that adaptation from international adaptation funds Athens, Lagos, Tokyo, Jakarta, we are already dealing with Changes in infrastructure and settlement patterns in New Orleans, South Asia and therefore already have especially vulnerable areas (India/Bangladesh), Luanda existing tools for prevention. Number of climate change vulnerability assessments Arabian Peninsula, Cairo, completed for regions and localities Delhi, Asmara, Eritrea, Number of climate change adaptation plans developed Hyderabad and implemented by governments and private- sector parties at all scales Number of national and international agreements, policies, and regulations that include climate change adaptation objectives Implications for human health (as one illustrative sector): Access to cooling centers Number of heat wave early warning systems Number of municipal heat island mitigation plans Number of health surveillance systems related to climate change Public health workforce available/trained in climate change research/surveillance/adaptation

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