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OCR for page 169
C
Reprint of Gordon E. Moore’s
“Cramming More Components
onto Integrated Circuits”
NOTE: Reprinted from Gordon Moore, 1965, Cramming more components onto integrated
circuits, Electronics 38(8) with permission from Intel Corporation.
169
OCR for page 170
170 THE FUTURE OF COMPUTING PERFORMANCE
Cramming More Components onto
Integrated Circuits
GORDON E. MOORE, LIFE FELLOW, IEEE
Each approach evolved rapidly and converged so that
With unit cost falling as the number of components per circuit
rises, by 1975 economics may dictate squeezing as many as 65 000 each borrowed techniques from another. Many researchers
components on a single silicon chip. believe the way of the future to be a combination of the
The future of integrated electronics is the future of various approaches.
electronics itself. The advantages of integration will bring The advocates of semiconductor integrated circuitry are
about a proliferation of electronics, pushing this science already using the improved characteristics of thin-lm
into many new areas. resistors by applying such lms directly to an active semi-
Integrated circuits will lead to such wonders as home conductor substrate. Those advocating a technology based
computers—or at least terminals connected to a central upon lms are developing sophisticated techniques for the
computer—automatic controls for automobiles, and per- attachment of active semiconductor devices to the passive
sonal portable communications equipment. The electronic lm arrays.
wristwatch needs only a display to be feasible today. Both approaches have worked well and are being used
But the biggest potential lies in the production of large in equipment today.
systems. In telephone communications, integrated circuits
in digital lters will separate channels on multiplex equip- II. THE ESTABLISHMENT
ment. Integrated circuits will also switch telephone circuits
Integrated electronics is established today. Its techniques
and perform data processing.
are almost mandatory for new military systems, since the
Computers will be more powerful, and will be organized
reliability, size, and weight required by some of them is
in completely different ways. For example, memories built
achievable only with integration. Such programs as Apollo,
of integrated electronics may be distributed throughout
for manned moon ight, have demonstrated the reliability
the machine instead of being concentrated in a central
of integrated electronics by showing that complete circuit
unit. In addition, the improved reliability made possible
functions are as free from failure as the best individual
by integrated circuits will allow the construction of larger
transistors.
processing units. Machines similar to those in existence
Most companies in the commercial computer eld have
today will be built at lower costs and with faster turn-
machines in design or in early production employing inte-
around.
grated electronics. These machines cost less and perform
better than those which use “conventional” electronics.
Instruments of various sorts, especially the rapidly in-
I. PRESENT AND FUTURE
creasing numbers employing digital techniques, are starting
By integrated electronics, I mean all the various tech-
to use integration because it cuts costs of both manufacture
nologies which are referred to as microelectronics today
and design.
as well as any additional ones that result in electronics
The use of linear integrated circuitry is still restricted
functions supplied to the user as irreducible units. These
primarily to the military. Such integrated functions are ex-
technologies were rst investigated in the late 1950’s. The
pensive and not available in the variety required to satisfy a
object was to miniaturize electronics equipment to include
major fraction of linear electronics. But the rst applications
increasingly complex electronic functions in limited space
are beginning to appear in commercial electronics, partic-
with minimum weight. Several approaches evolved, includ-
ularly in equipment which needs low-frequency ampliers
ing microassembly techniques for individual components,
of small size.
thin-lm structures, and semiconductor integrated circuits.
III. RELIABILITY COUNTS
Reprinted from Gordon E. Moore, “Cramming More Components onto
In almost every case, integrated electronics has demon-
Integrated Circuits,” Electronics, pp. 114–117, April 19, 1965.
strated high reliability. Even at the present level of pro-
Publisher Item Identier S 0018-9219(98)00753-1.
82 PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, VOL. 86, NO. 1, JANUARY 1998
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171
APPENDIX C
duction—low compared to that of discrete components—it
offers reduced systems cost, and in many systems improved
performance has been realized.
Integrated electronics will make electronic techniques
more generally available throughout all of society, perform-
ing many functions that presently are done inadequately by
other techniques or not done at all. The principal advantages
will be lower costs and greatly simplied design—payoffs
from a ready supply of low-cost functional packages.
For most applications, semiconductor integrated circuits
will predominate. Semiconductor devices are the only rea-
sonable candidates presently in existence for the active
elements of integrated circuits. Passive semiconductor el-
ements look attractive too, because of their potential for
low cost and high reliability, but they can be used only if
precision is not a prime requisite.
Silicon is likely to remain the basic material, although
Fig. 1.
others will be of use in specic applications. For example,
gallium arsenide will be important in integrated microwave
functions. But silicon will predominate at lower frequencies
because of the technology which has already evolved V. TWO-MIL SQUARES
around it and its oxide, and because it is an abundant and
With the dimensional tolerances already being employed
relatively inexpensive starting material.
in integrated circuits, isolated high-performance transistors
can be built on centers two-thousandths of an inch apart.
Such a two-mil square can also contain several kilohms
IV. COSTS AND CURVES
of resistance or a few diodes. This allows at least 500
Reduced cost is one of the big attractions of integrated components per linear inch or a quarter million per square
electronics, and the cost advantage continues to increase inch. Thus, 65 000 components need occupy only about
as the technology evolves toward the production of larger one-fourth a square inch.
and larger circuit functions on a single semiconductor On the silicon wafer currently used, usually an inch or
substrate. For simple circuits, the cost per component is more in diameter, there is ample room for such a structure if
nearly inversely proportional to the number of components, the components can be closely packed with no space wasted
the result of the equivalent piece of semiconductor in for interconnection patterns. This is realistic, since efforts to
the equivalent package containing more components. But achieve a level of complexity above the presently available
as components are added, decreased yields more than integrated circuits are already under way using multilayer
compensate for the increased complexity, tending to raise metallization patterns separated by dielectric lms. Such a
the cost per component. Thus there is a minimum cost density of components can be achieved by present optical
at any given time in the evolution of the technology. At techniques and does not require the more exotic techniques,
present, it is reached when 50 components are used per such as electron beam operations, which are being studied
circuit. But the minimum is rising rapidly while the entire to make even smaller structures.
cost curve is falling (see graph). If we look ahead ve
years, a plot of costs suggests that the minimum cost per
VI. INCREASING YIELD
THE
component might be expected in circuits with about 1000
components per circuit (providing such circuit functions There is no fundamental obstacle to achieving device
can be produced in moderate quantities). In 1970, the yields of 100%. At present, packaging costs so far exceed
manufacturing cost per component can be expected to be the cost of the semiconductor structure itself that there is no
only a tenth of the present cost. incentive to improve yields, but they can be raised as high
The complexity for minimum component costs has in- as is economically justied. No barrier exists comparable
creased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year to the thermodynamic equilibrium considerations that often
(see graph). Certainly over the short term this rate can be limit yields in chemical reactions; it is not even necessary
expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer to do any fundamental research or to replace present
term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although processes. Only the engineering effort is needed.
there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly In the early days of integrated circuitry, when yields were
constant for at least ten years. That means by 1975, the extremely low, there was such incentive. Today ordinary
number of components per integrated circuit for minimum integrated circuits are made with yields comparable with
cost will be 65 000. those obtained for individual semiconductor devices. The
I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single same pattern will make larger arrays economical, if other
wafer. considerations make such arrays desirable.
MOORE: CRAMMING COMPONENTS ONTO INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 83
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172 THE FUTURE OF COMPUTING PERFORMANCE
Fig. 2.
diagram to technological realization without any special
engineering.
It may prove to be more economical to build large
systems out of smaller functions, which are separately pack-
aged and interconnected. The availability of large functions,
combined with functional design and construction, should
allow the manufacturer of large systems to design and
construct a considerable variety of equipment both rapidly
and economically.
IX. LINEAR CIRCUITRY
Integration will not change linear systems as radically as
digital systems. Still, a considerable degree of integration
will be achieved with linear circuits. The lack of large-
value capacitors and inductors is the greatest fundamental
Fig. 3. limitation to integrated electronics in the linear area.
By their very nature, such elements require the storage
of energy in a volume. For high it is necessary that the
VII. HEAT PROBLEM
volume be large. The incompatibility of large volume and
Will it be possible to remove the heat generated by tens
integrated electronics is obvious from the terms themselves.
of thousands of components in a single silicon chip?
Certain resonance phenomena, such as those in piezoelec-
If we could shrink the volume of a standard high-
tric crystals, can be expected to have some applications for
speed digital computer to that required for the components
tuning functions, but inductors and capacitors will be with
themselves, we would expect it to glow brightly with
us for some time.
present power dissipation. But it won’t happen with in-
The integrated RF amplier of the future might well con-
tegrated circuits. Since integrated electronic structures are
sist of integrated stages of gain, giving high performance
two dimensional, they have a surface available for cooling
at minimum cost, interspersed with relatively large tuning
close to each center of heat generation. In addition, power is
elements.
needed primarily to drive the various lines and capacitances
Other linear functions will be changed considerably. The
associated with the system. As long as a function is conned
matching and tracking of similar components in integrated
to a small area on a wafer, the amount of capacitance
structures will allow the design of differential ampliers of
which must be driven is distinctly limited. In fact, shrinking
greatly improved performance. The use of thermal feedback
dimensions on an integrated structure makes it possible to
effects to stabilize integrated structures to a small fraction
operate the structure at higher speed for the same power
of a degree will allow the construction of oscillators with
per unit area.
crystal stability.
Even in the microwave area, structures included in the
VIII. DAY OF RECKONING denition of integrated electronics will become increasingly
important. The ability to make and assemble components
Clearly, we will be able to build such component-
small compared with the wavelengths involved will allow
crammed equipment. Next, we ask under what circum-
the use of lumped parameter design, at least at the lower
stances we should do it. The total cost of making a
frequencies. It is difcult to predict at the present time
particular system function must be minimized. To do so,
just how extensive the invasion of the microwave area by
we could amortize the engineering over several identical
integrated electronics will be. The successful realization of
items, or evolve exible techniques for the engineering of
such items as phased-array antennas, for example, using a
large functions so that no disproportionate expense need
multiplicity of integrated microwave power sources, could
be borne by a particular array. Perhaps newly devised
completely revolutionize radar.
design automation procedures could translate from logic
84 PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, VOL. 86, NO. 1, JANUARY 1998
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173
APPENDIX C
G. E. Moore is one of the new breed of elec-
tronic engineers, schooled in the physical sci-
ences rather than in electronics. He earned a B.S.
degree in chemistry from the University of Cal-
ifornia and a Ph.D. degree in physical chemistry
from the California Institute of Technology. He
was one of the founders of Fairchild Semicon-
ductor and has been Director of the research and
development laboratories since 1959.
MOORE: CRAMMING COMPONENTS ONTO INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 85
