PANEL REPORTS—New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics

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PANEL REPORTS— New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics Science Frontiers Panels Program Prioritization Panels Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics Board on Physics and Astronomy Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panels responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract NNX08AN97G between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Contract AST-0743899 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation, and Contract DE-FG02-08ER41542 be- tween the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Support for this study was also provided by the Vesto Slipher Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda- tions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-15962-3 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-15962-8 Library of Congresss Control Number: 2011925026 Available in limited quantities from: Board on Physics and Astronomy 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 bpa@nas.edu http://www.nationalacademies.edu/bpa Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to as- sociate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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SCIENCE FRONTIERS PANELS Panel on Cosmology and Fundamental Physics DAVID N. SPERGEL, Princeton University, Chair DAVID WEINBERG, Ohio State University, Vice Chair RACHEL BEAN, Cornell University NEIL CORNISH, Montana State University JONATHAN FENG, University of California, Irvine ALEX V. FILIPPENKO, University of California, Berkeley WICK C. HAXTON, University of California, Berkeley MARC P. KAMIONKOWSKI, California Institute of Technology LISA RANDALL, Harvard University EUN-SUK SEO, University of Maryland DAVID TYTLER, University of California, San Diego CLIFFORD M. WILL, Washington University Panel on the Galactic Neighborhood MICHAEL J. SHULL, University of Colorado, Chair JULIANNE DALCANTON, University of Washington, Vice Chair LEO BLITZ, University of California, Berkeley BRUCE T. DRAINE, Princeton University ROBERT FESEN, Dartmouth University KARL GEBHARDT, University of Texas JUNA KOLLMEIER, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington CRYSTAL MARTIN, University of California, Santa Barbara JASON TUMLINSON, Space Telescope Science Institute DANIEL WANG, University of Massachusetts DENNIS ZARITSKY, University of Arizona STEPHEN E. ZEPF, Michigan State University Panel on Galaxies Across Cosmic Time C. MEGAN URRY, Yale University, Chair MITCHELL C. BEGELMAN, University of Colorado, Vice Chair NETA A. BAHCALL, Princeton University ANDREW J. BAKER, Rutgers University ROMEEL DAVÉ, University of Arizona TIZIANA DI MATTEO, Carnegie Mellon University HENRIC S.W. KRAWCZYNSKI, Washington University v

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JOSEPH MOHR, Ludwig Maximilian University RICHARD F. MUSHOTZKY, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center CHRISTOPHER S. REYNOLDS, University of Maryland ALICE SHAPLEY, University of California, Los Angeles TOMMASO TREU, University of California, Santa Barbara JAQUELINE H. VAN GORKOM, Columbia University ERIC M. WILCOTS, University of Wisconsin Panel on Planetary Systems and Star Formation LEE W. HARTMANN, University of Michigan, Chair DAN M. WATSON, University of Rochester, Vice Chair HECTOR ARCE, Yale University CLAIRE CHANDLER, National Radio Astronomy Observatory DAVID CHARBONNEAU, Harvard University EUGENE CHIANG, University of California, Berkeley SUZAN EDWARDS, Smith College ERIC HERBST, Ohio State University DAVID C. JEWITT, University of California, Los Angeles JAMES P. LLOYD, Cornell University EVE C. OSTRIKER, University of Maryland DAVID J. STEVENSON, California Institute of Technology JONATHAN C. TAN, University of Florida Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolution ROGER A. CHEVALIER, University of Virginia, Chair ROBERT P. KIRSHNER, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Vice Chair DEEPTO CHAKRABARTY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SUZANNE HAWLEY, University of Washington JEFFREY R. KUHN, University of Hawaii STANLEY OWOCKI, University of Delaware MARC PINSONNEAULT, Ohio State University ELIOT QUATAERT, University of California, Berkeley SCOTT RANSOM, National Radio Astronomy Observatory HENDRIK SCHATZ, Michigan State University LEE ANNE WILLSON, Iowa State University STANFORD E. WOOSLEY, University of California, Santa Cruz vi

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Staff DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy (BPA) MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Astro2010 Study Director and Director, Space Studies Board (SSB) BRANT L. SPONBERG, Associate Director, SSB (until December 2009) ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer, BPA DAVID B. LANG, Program Officer, BPA CARMELA CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator, SSB CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor, SSB CARYN J. KNUTSEN, Research Associate, BPA LaVITA COATES-FOGLE, Senior Program Assistant, BPA (until October 2009) BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate, BPA vii

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PROGRAM PRIORITIZATION PANELS Panel on Electromagnetic Observations from Space ALAN DRESSLER, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington, Chair MICHAEL BAY, Bay Engineering Innovations ALAN P. BOSS, Carnegie Institution of Washington MARK DEVLIN, University of Pennsylvania MEGAN DONAHUE, Michigan State University BRENNA FLAUGHER, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory TOM GREENE, NASA Ames Research Center PURAGRA (RAJA) GUHATHAKURTA, University of California Observatories/ Lick Observatory MICHAEL G. HAUSER, Space Telescope Science Institute HAROLD McALISTER, Georgia State University PETER F. MICHELSON, Stanford University BEN R. OPPENHEIMER, American Museum of Natural History FRITS PAERELS, Columbia University GEORGE H. RIEKE, Steward Observatory, University of Arizona ADAM G. RIESS, Johns Hopkins University PAUL L. SCHECHTER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology TODD TRIPP, University of Massachusetts at Amherst Panel on Optical and Infrared Astronomy from the Ground PATRICK S. OSMER, Ohio State University, Chair MICHAEL SKRUTSKIE, University of Virginia, Vice Chair CHARLES BAILYN, Yale University BETSY BARTON, University of California, Irvine TODD A. BOROSON, National Optical Astronomy Observatory DANIEL EISENSTEIN, University of Arizona ANDREA M. GHEZ, University of California, Los Angeles J. TODD HOEKSEMA, Stanford University ROBERT P. KIRSHNER, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics BRUCE MACINTOSH, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory PIERO MADAU, University of California, Santa Cruz JOHN MONNIER, University of Michigan I. NEILL REID, Space Telescope Science Institute CHARLES E. WOODWARD, University of Minnesota viii

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Panel on Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation JACQUELINE N. HEWITT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair ERIC G. ADELBERGER, University of Washington ANDREAS ALBRECHT, University of California, Davis ELENA APRILE, Columbia University JONATHAN ARONS, University of California, Berkeley BARRY C. BARISH, California Institute of Technology JOAN CENTRELLA, NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard University KATHRYN FLANAGAN, Space Telescope Science Institute GABRIELA GONZALEZ, Louisiana State University JAMES B. HARTLE, University of California, Santa Barbara STEVEN M. KAHN, Stanford University N. JEREMY KASDIN, Princeton University TERESA MONTARULI, University of Wisconsin–Madison ANGELA V. OLINTO, University of Chicago RENE A. ONG, University of California, Los Angeles HELEN R. QUINN, Stanford National Accelerator Laboratory (retired) Panel on Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter Astronomy from the Ground NEAL J. EVANS II, University of Texas, Chair JAMES M. MORAN, Harvard University, Vice Chair CRYSTAL BROGAN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory AARON S. EVANS, University of Virginia SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory JASON GLENN, University of Colorado at Boulder NICKOLAY Y. GNEDIN, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory CORNELIA C. LANG, University of Iowa MAURA McLAUGHLIN, West Virginia University MIGUEL MORALES, University of Washington LYMAN A. PAGE, JR., Princeton University JEAN L. TURNER, University of California, Los Angeles DAVID J. WILNER, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory ix

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Staff DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy (BPA) MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Astro2010 Study Director and Director, Space Studies Board (SSB) BRANT L. SPONBERG, Associate Director, SSB (until December 2009) ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer, BPA BRIAN DEWHURST, Program Officer, ASEB (until July 2009) JAMES LANCASTER, Program Officer, BPA CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor, SSB CARYN J. KNUTSEN, Research Associate, BPA CARMELA CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator, SSB LaVITA COATES-FOGLE, Senior Program Assistant, BPA (until October 2009) BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate, BPA x

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COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS ROGER D. BLANDFORD, Stanford University, Chair MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University, Vice Chair JOHN P. HUCHRA,1 Harvard University, Vice Chair MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona, Vice Chair LYNNE HILLENBRAND, California Institute of Technology, Executive Officer STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering LARS BILDSTEN, University of California, Santa Barbara JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago DEBRA M. ELMEGREEN, Vassar College JOSHUA FRIEMAN, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology TIMOTHY M. HECKMAN, Johns Hopkins University ROBERT C. KENNICUTT, JR., University of Cambridge JONATHAN I. LUNINE, University of Rome, Tor Vergata CLAIRE E. MAX, University of California, Santa Cruz DAN McCAMMON, University of Wisconsin STEVEN M. RITZ, University of California, Santa Cruz JURI TOOMRE, University of Colorado SCOTT D. TREMAINE, Institute for Advanced Study MICHAEL S. TURNER, University of Chicago NEIL deGRASSE TYSON, Hayden Planetarium, American Museum of Natural History PAUL A. VANDEN BOUT, National Radio Astronomy Observatory A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired) Staff DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy (BPA) MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Astro2010 Study Director and Director, Space Studies Board (SSB) BRANT L. SPONBERG, Senior Program Officer, BPA (until December 2009) ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer, BPA BRIAN D. DEWHURST, Program Officer, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (until July 2009) JAMES C. LANCASTER, Program Officer, BPA 1 This report is dedicated to John P. Huchra, who served as a vice chair for the Astro2010 decadal survey. xi

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Preface xvi Formation, and Stars and Stellar Evolution. Drawing on the 324 white papers on science opportunities submitted to the NRC in response to an open call from the survey committee to the astronomy and astrophysics research community,2 as well as on briefings received from federal agencies that provide support for the field, the SFPs strove to identify the scientific drivers of the field and the most promising opportunities for progress in research in the next decade, taking into consideration those areas where the technical means and the theoretical foundations are in place for major steps forward. The SFPs were instructed to avoid advocacy for prioritiza- tion of specific new missions, telescopes, and other research activities. They also worked ahead of and therefore independent of the PPPs. As delineated in Chapters 1 through 5 of this volume, the input of each of the SFPs to the survey committee was organized by four science questions ripe for answering and general areas with unusual discovery potential. In the second phase of the survey, the PPPs were charged to develop a ranked program of research activities in four programmatic areas: Electromagnetic Ob- servations from Space; Optical and Infrared Astronomy from the Ground; Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation; and Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter Astron- omy from the Ground. In addition to the draft science questions and discovery areas received from the SFP chairs at a joint meeting held in May 2009, the PPPs also reviewed the more than 100 proposals for research activities presented by the astronomy and astrophysics community for consideration by the survey.3 In addition the PPPs received briefings from federal agencies, project proponents, and other stakeholders at public sessions held in June 2009 at the summer meet- ing of the American Astronomical Society in Pasadena, California. In their final assembly of priorities the PPPs also took into account assessments of cost and schedule risk, and of the technical readiness of the research activities under con- sideration for prioritization, that were provided by an NRC-hired contractor, the Aerospace Corporation. As presented in Chapters 6 through 9 of this volume, each PPP report contains a proposed program of prioritized, balanced, and integrated research activities, reflecting the results of its in-depth study of the technical and programmatic issues and its consideration of the results of the independent techni- cal evaluation and cost and schedule risk estimate. The survey committee received draft reports of the PPPs’ input on proposed programs at its fourth committee meeting in October 2009. The SFPs and the PPPs conducted their work independent of each other, al- though coordinating calls among the panel chairs were held frequently. No mem- bers of the panels served on the survey committee, but the panel chairs did attend 2 T he set of white papers submitted is available at http://sites.nationalacademies.org/BPA/ BPA_050603. 3 For more information see http://sites.nationalacademies.org/BPA/BPA_049855.

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Preface xvii all but the final committee meeting, and liaisons from the committee attended panel meetings. The six Infrastructure Study Groups that also provided input for the survey committee’s consideration consisted of 71 volunteer consultants drawn for the most part from the astronomy and astrophysics community. These groups gathered and analyzed data on issues in six areas—Computation, Simulation, and Data Han- dling (including archiving of astronomical data); Demographics (encompassing astronomers and astrophysicists working in different environments and subfields); Facilities, Funding, and Programs (including infrastructure issues such as support for laboratory astrophysics and technology development and theory); Interna- tional and Private Partnerships; Education and Public Outreach; and Astronomy and Public Policy (benefits to the nation that accrue from federal investment in astronomy and from the potential contributions that professional astronomers can make to research of societal importance, and mechanisms by which the astronomy community provides advice to the federal government)—to describe recent trends and past quantifiable impacts on research programs in astronomy and astrophysics. The ISGs provided preliminary reports to the survey committee and the PPPs at the May 2009 so-called jamboree meeting, and their final reports were completed by the fall of 2009. It then became the task of the survey committee to integrate the inputs from the SFPs and the PPPs, along with that from the ISGs, into a recommended program for all of astronomy and astrophysics for the decade 2010-2020. The five SFPs, four PPPs, and six ISGs were critical components of the survey, not only for the content and critical analysis they supplied but also because of the connections they provided to the astronomy and astrophysics community. Moreover the panels completed a Herculean set of tasks in an extraordinarily short time. As presented in this volume, the results of their efforts were essential to the deliberations of the survey committee, the success of whose work depended critically on the sequential and orderly flow of information from the SFPs to the PPPs, and then to the committee as provided for in the survey plan and structure. In addition, the survey as a whole benefited immensely from the broader par- ticipation of the astronomy and astrophysics community, which, over the course of the study and in particular in the first half of 2009, undertook a massive effort to provide input to the survey process. Included were informal reports from 17 com- munity town hall meetings, more than 20 unsolicited e-mails, and 90-plus notices of interest for project activities, in addition to more than 450 white papers on topics including science opportunities, the state of the profession and infrastructure, and opportunities in technology development, theory, computation, and laboratory astrophysics. Critical to the success of the nine panels’ and six study groups’ work, these inputs were also an early product of the survey in that the white papers and various reports were made available on the NRC Web pages. On behalf of the survey

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Preface xviii committee and the panels, sincere thanks are extended to the volunteers from the research community who gave so much of their time to formulate this backbone of information and data as input for the Astro2010 survey process. The survey committee also acknowledges with heartfelt thanks the critical input represented by the material provided in this volume. The reports of the SFPs and the PPPs stand as a testament to the hard work done by the panels, and especially their chairs. The full value of this tremendous effort will be recognized through the decade to come. The survey committee and the entire field of astron- omy and astrophysics owe a great deal of thanks to all those who dedicated their time and effort to the Astro2010 survey activities. Roger D. Blandford, Chair Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics

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Acknowledgment of Members of the Astro2010 Infrastructure Study Groups The Committee for a Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics ac- knowledges with gratitude the contributions of the members of the Astro2010 Infrastructure Study Groups, who gathered information on issues related to the broad topics listed below. Computation, Simulation, and Data Handling: Robert Hanisch, Space Telescope Science Institute, Co-Chair; Lars Hernquist, Harvard University, Co-Chair; Thomas Abel, Stanford University; Keith Arnaud, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Tim Axelrod, LSST; Alyssa Goodman, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Kathryn Johnston, Columbia University; Andrey Kravtsov, University of Chicago; Kristen Larson, Western Washington University; Carol Lonsdale, National Radio Astronomy Observatory; Mordecai-Mark Mac Low, American Museum of Natural History; Michael Norman, University of California, San Diego; Richard Pogge, Ohio State University; and James Stone, Princeton University. Demographics: James Ulvestad, National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Chair; Jack Gallimore, Bucknell University; Evalyn Gates, University of Chicago; Rachel Ivie, American Institute of Physics; Christine Jones, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Patricia Knezek, WIYN Consortium, Inc.; Travis Metcalfe, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Naveen Reddy, National Optical Astronomy Observatory; Joan Schmelz, University of Memphis; and Louis-Gregory Strolger, Western Kentucky University. xix

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MeMbers Infrastructure study GrouPs xx of Facilities, Funding, and Programs: J. Craig Wheeler, University of Texas at Austin, Chair; Rebecca A. Bernstein, University of California, Santa Cruz; David Burrows, Pennsylvania State University; Webster Cash, University of Colorado; R. Paul Drake, University of Michigan; Jeremy Goodman, Princeton University; W. Miller Goss, National Radio Astronomy Observatory; Kate Kirby, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Anthony Mezzacappa, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Robert Millis, Lowell Observatory; Catherine Pilachowski, Indiana University; Farid Salama, NASA Ames Research Center; and Ellen Zweibel, University of Wisconsin. International and Private Partnerships: Robert L. Dickman, National Radio As- tronomy Observatory, Chair; Michael Bolte, University of California, Santa Cruz; George Helou, California Institute of Technology; James Hesser, Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics; Wesley T. Huntress, Carnegie Institution of Washington; Richard Kelley, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Rolf-Peter Kudritzki, University of Hawaii; Eugene H. Levy, Rice University; Antonella Nota, Space Telescope Science Institute; and Brad Peterson, Ohio State University. Education and Public Outreach: Lucy Fortson, Adler Planetarium, Co-Chair; Chris Impey, University of Arizona, Co-Chair; Carol Christian, Space Telescope Science Institute; Lynn Cominsky, Sonoma State University; Mary Dussault, Harvard- Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Richard Tresch Feinberg, Phillips Academy; Andrew Fraknoi, Foothill College; Pamela Gay, Southern Illinois University; Jeffrey Kirsch, Reuben H. Fleet Science Center; Robert Mathieu, University of Wisconsin; George Nelson, Western Washington University; Edward Prather, University of Ari- zona; Philip Sadler, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Keivan Stassun, Vanderbilt University; and Sidney Woolf, LSST. Astronomy and Public Policy: Daniel F. Lester, University of Texas at Austin, Chair; Jack Burns, University of Colorado; Bruce Carney, University of North Carolina; Heidi Hammel, Space Science Institute; Noel W. Hinners, Lockheed (retired); John Leibacher, National Solar Observatory; J. Patrick Looney, Brookhaven National Laboratory; Melissa McGrath, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; and Annelia Sargent, California Institute of Technology.

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers These panel reports have been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published reports as sound as possible and to ensure that the reports meet institutional standards for objectiv- ity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscripts remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of these reports: Science Frontiers Panel Reports Jonathan Bagger, Johns Hopkins University Sarbani Basu, Yale University Timothy Beers, Michigan State University John H. Black, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden Joseph Burns, Cornell University Len Cowie, University of Hawaii Marc Davis, University of California, Berkeley Henry Ferguson, Space Telescope Science Institute Marla Geha, Yale University Andrew Gould, Ohio State University Craig Hogan, University of Chicago xxi

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acknowledGMent revIewers xxii of Michael Jura, University of California, Los Angeles Vicky Kalogera, Northwestern University Gillian Knapp, Princeton University Richard McCray, University of Colorado, Boulder Christopher McKee, University of California, Berkeley Ramesh Narayan, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics Roman Rafikov, Princeton University Michael Strauss, Princeton University Ann Wehrle, Space Science Institute Rainer Weiss, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (professor emeritus) Bruce Winstein, University of Chicago Mark Wyatt, University of Cambridge Program Prioritization Panel Reports Jonathan Bagger, Johns Hopkins University James Barrowman, NASA (retired) John H. Black, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden Darrel Emerson, National Radio Astronomy Observatory Reinhard Genzel, Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics Ronald L. Gilliland, Space Telescope Science Institute James E. Gunn, Princeton University Observatory Craig Hogan, University of Chicago Vicky Kalogera, Northwestern University Richard McCray, University of Colorado, Boulder Christopher McKee, University of California, Berkeley Ramesh Narayan, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics Anthony Readhead, California Institute of Technology Anneila Sargent, California Institute of Technology Michael Strauss, Princeton University Edward L. Wright, University of California, Los Angeles Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the reports’ conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the reports before their release. The review of the Science Frontiers Panel reports was overseen by Kenneth H. Keller, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and Bernard F. Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The review of the Program Pri- oritization Panel reports was overseen by Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology, and Bernard F. Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Ap- pointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an indepen-

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acknowledGMent revIewers xxiii of dent examination of the reports was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of the reports rests entirely with the authoring panels and the institution.

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Contents PART I REPORTS OF THE ASTRO2010 SCIENCE FRONTIERS PANELS 1 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON COSMOLOGY AND FUNDAMENTAL PHYSICS 3 2 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON THE GALACTIC NEIGHBORHOOD 53 3 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON GALAXIES ACROSS COSMIC TIME 95 4 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATION 151 5 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON STARS AND STELLAR EVOLUTION 207 SUMMARY FINDINGS 247 xxv

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contents xxvi PART II REPORTS OF THE ASTRO2010 PROGRAM PRIORITIZATION PANELS 6 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON ELECTROMAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS FROM SPACE 251 7 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON OPTICAL AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY FROM THE GROUND 311 8 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON PARTICLE ASTROPHYSICS AND GRAVITATION 379 9 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON RADIO, MILLIMETER, AND SUBMILLIMETER ASTRONOMY FROM THE GROUND 439 APPENDIXES A Statements of Task for the Astro2010 Panels 503 B Glossary 513 C Acronyms 541