FIGURE D-41 Annual growth rates for psychologists, sociologists, and anthropologists for various periods from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and current projections for behavioral Ph.D.s.

FIGURE D-41 Annual growth rates for psychologists, sociologists, and anthropologists for various periods from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and current projections for behavioral Ph.D.s.

SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics data downloaded from www.bls.gov/emp#/data in January 2010; Hecker, D.E. 2005. Occupational employment projections to 2014. Monthly Labor Review 128(11):70-101; and NRC analysis.

FIGURE D-42 Workforce annual growth rates, 2001-2006, as previously projected and as derived from surveys, by major field.

FIGURE D-42 Workforce annual growth rates, 2001-2006, as previously projected and as derived from surveys, by major field.

SOURCE: National Research Council. 2005. Advancing the Nation’s Health Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press; and NRC analysis.

apparently not wide enough to encapsulate actual (or at least estimated) trends.

The 2005 biomedical projection may have been too low mainly because foreign-trained Ph.D.s were estimated from 1993 survey data and projected forward to 2001 to provide the base for a further projection to 2011. The substantial increase in immigrants in 1999 and 2000 was therefore not factored into the projection. The errors regarding the clinical projection, in contrast, may involve the size of the group, which is relatively small and was fast growing, with considerable year-to-year volatility.

One implication that should be drawn, clearly, is that the



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