Appendix B
Workshop Agenda and Presenters

AGENDA

Workshop on Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population

January 13, 2010

9:00–9:30 a.m.

OPENING SESSION

 

Welcome and Introductions

Dana Goldman, University of Southern California

Welcoming Remarks on Behalf of the National Academies

Constance Citro, Committee on National Statistics

Welcome and Sponsor’s Perspectives

Richard Suzman, National Institute on Aging

Background and Context of the Workshop

Dana Goldman



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Appendix B Workshop Agenda and Presenters AGENDA Workshop on Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population January 13, 2010 9:00–9:30 a.m. OPENING SESSION Welcome and Introductions Dana Goldman, University of Southern California Welcoming Remarks on Behalf of the Constance Citro, Committee National Academies on National Statistics Richard Welcome and Sponsor’s Perspectives Suzman, Na- tional Institute on Aging Background and Context of the Dana Goldman Workshop 0

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0 HEALTH CArE COST PrOJECTIONS FOr MEDICArE 9:30–11:00 SESSION ONE Moderator: Marilyn Moon, American Institutes for Research Relative Merits of Current Models for Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population Presenters: A Brief Overview of Background John Friedman, Paper on Current Models for Health Harvard Care Cost Projections for the Medi- University care Population Medicare Cost Modeling for Health Joyce Care Spending at CBO: Capabilities, Manchester, Strengths, and Weaknesses Congressional Budget Office OACT Long-Range Health Expen- Richard Foster, ditures Projections: Assumptions, Centers for Methods, and Purposes Medicare & Medicaid Services Role of MEPS as a Resource for Steven Cohen, the Nation’s Economic Models and Agency for Their Projections of Health Care Healthcare Expenditures and Use Research and Quality Comments and General Discussion 11:00–11:15 Break

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0 APPENDIX B 11:15– SESSION TWO Moderator: 12:30 p.m. Jonathan Skinner, Dartmouth Medical School Modeling Medical Technology as a Driver of Medicare Health Care Spending Presenters: Current Law Brakes on Health Care Michael Spending Growth Chernew, Harvard University Pharmaceutical Innovation, Future Darius Health, and Spending Lakdawalla, University of Southern California Medical Technology as a Driver of Kenneth Health Care Costs Thorpe, Emory University Comments and General Discussion 12:30–1:30 Working Lunch—continuation of discussion 1:30–3:00 SESSION THREE Moderator: Joseph Newhouse, Harvard University Factors Affecting Health Status as Drivers of Health Care Spending and Cost Projections for the Medicare Population

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0 HEALTH CArE COST PrOJECTIONS FOr MEDICArE Presenters: Health and Health Care Cost Con- Justin Trogdon, sequences of Obesity Among the RTI Medicare Population International Role of Socioeconomic Status and Eileen Health-Related Behaviors in Driving Crimmins, Cost Projections for the Medicare University Population of Southern California Role of Chronic Diseases and Dis- Jay ability in Medical Spending Among Bhattacharya, the Medicare Population Stanford University Comments and General Discussion 3:00–3:15 Break 3:15–4:15 SESSION FOUR Moderator: Dana Goldman Needed Research on Aging-Related Issues Toward the Goal of Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population Panel of two key participants will Eileen Crimmins, lead off the discussion Darius Lakdawalla Comments and General Discussion All participants 4:15–5:00 Closing Remarks Constance Citro, Richard Suzman, Dana Goldman 5:00 Adjourn

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 APPENDIX B PRESENTERS Jay bhattacharya is an associate professor in the Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University School of Medicine. Michael Chernew is professor in the Department of Health Care Policy at the Harvard Medical School. Constance F. Citro is director of the Committee on National Statistics, in the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council. Steven Cohen is director of the Center for Financing, Access, and Cost Trends at the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality in the U.S. De- partment of Health and Human Services. Eileen Crimmins is associate dean of the Davis School of Gerontology and professor of gerontology and sociology at the University of Southern California. Richard Foster is chief actuary in the Office of the Actuary of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. John N. Friedman is assistant professor of public policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. Dana P. Goldman is professor and Norman Topping chair in medicine and public policy and director of the Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics at the University of Southern California. Darius Lakdawalla is associate professor in the School of Policy, Planning, and Development and director of research in the Leonard Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics at the University of Southern California. Joyce Manchester is unit chief of the Long-Term Modeling Group in the Health and Human Resources Division of the Congressional Budget Office. Richard Suzman is associate director for behavioral and social research at the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health.

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 HEALTH CArE COST PrOJECTIONS FOr MEDICArE kenneth Thorpe is Robert W. Woodruff professor and chair in the Depart- ment of Health Policy and Management of the Rollins School of Public Health at Emory University. Justin Trogdon is a research economist in the Public Health Economics Program at RTI International.