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Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop References Acemozğlu, D., and Finkelstein, A. (2008). Input and technology choices in regulated industries: Evidence from the healthcare sector. Journal of Political Economy, 116(5), 837-880. Acemozğlu, D., and Linn, J. (2004). Market size in innovation: Theory and evidence from the pharmaceutical sector. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(3), 1049-1090. Aranovich, G., Bhattacharya, J., Garber, A., and MaCurdy, T. (2009). Coping with chronic disease? Chronic disease and disability in elderly American population 1982-1999. (NBER Working Paper No. 14811). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Baker, L.C. (1997). The effect of HMOs on fee-for-service health care expenditures: Evidence from Medicare. Journal of Health Economics, 16, 453-482. Baker, L.C. (1999). Association of managed care market share and health expenditures for fee-for-service Medicare patients. Journal of the American Medical Association, 281(5), 432-437. Baker, L.C. (2003). Managed care spillover effects. Annual Review of Public Health, 24, 435-456. Baker, L.C., and Shankarkumar, S. (1998). Managed care and health care expenditures: Evidence from Medicare, 1990-1994. Forum for Health Economics & Policy, 1 (Frontiers in Health Policy Research), Article 5. Available: http://www.bepress.com/fhep/1/5/. Baker, L.C., and Wheeler, S.K. (1998). Managed care and technology diffusion: The case of MRI. Health Affairs, 17, 195-207. Baker, L.C., and McClellan, M.B. (2001). Managed care, health care quality, and regulation. Journal of Legal Studies, 30(2), 715-741. Banks, J., Marmot, M., Oldfield, Z., and Smith, J. (2006). Disease and disadvantage in the United States and in England. Journal of the American Medical Association, 295(17), 2037-2045. Bhattacharya, J., Choudhry, K., and Lakdawalla, D. (2008). Chronic disease and severe disability among working-age populations. Medical Care, 45(1), 92-100.
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Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop Bhattacharya, J., Garber, A., and MaCurdy, T. (2010). The narrowing dispersion of Medicare expenditures, 1995-2005. In David Wise, (Ed.), Research findings in the economics of aging. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds. (2009). Annual report. Washington, DC: Author. Borger, C., Rutherford, T.F., and Won, G.Y. (2008). Projecting long-term medical spending growth. Journal of Health Economics, 27(1), 69-88. Bundorf, K.M., Escarce, J.J., Stafford, J.A., Gaskin, D, Jollis, J.G., and Schulman, K. (2004). Impact of managed care on the treatment, costs, and outcomes of fee-for-service Medicare patients with acute myocardial infarction. Health Services Research, 39(1), 131-152. Chernew, M.E. (1995). HMO use of diagnostic tests: A review of the evidence. Medical Care Research and Review, 52(2), 196-222. Chernew, M.E., Gowrisankaran, G., and Fendrick, A.M. (2002). Payer type and the returns to bypass surgery: Evidence from hospital entry behavior. Journal of Health Economics, 21(3), 451-474. Chernew, M.E., DeCicca, P., and Town, R. (2008). Managed care and medical expenditures of Medicare beneficiaries. Journal of Health Economics, 27, 1451-1461. Congressional Budget Office. (2009). The long-term budget outlook. Washington, DC: Author. Finkelstein, A. (2004). Static and dynamic effects of health policy: Evidence from the vaccine industry. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(2), 527-564. Finkelstein A. (2007). The aggregate effects of health insurance: Evidence from the introduction of Medicare. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(1), 1-37. Finkelstein, E.A., Trogdon, J.G., Brown, D.S., Allaire, B.T., Dellea, P., and Kamal-Bahl, S. (2008). The lifetime medical cost burden of overweight and obesity: Implications for obesity prevention. Obesity, 16(8), 1843-1848. Finkelstein, E.A., Brown, D.S., Wrage, L.A., Allaire, B.T., and Hoerger, T.J. (2009a). Individual and aggregate years of life lost associated with overweight and obesity. Obesity. Advance online publ. August 13. Finkelstein, E.A., Trogdon, J.G., Cohen, J.W., and Dietz, W.H. (2009b). Annual medical spending attributable to obesity: Payer- and service-specific estimates. Health Affairs, 28(5), w831-w833. Freedman, V.A., and Martin, L.G. (1999). The role of education in explaining and forecasting trends in functional limitations among older Americans. Demography, 36, 461-473. Goldman D.P., Shekelle, P.G., Bhattachrya, J., Hurd, M., Joyce, G.F., Lakdawalla, D.N., Matsui, D.H., Newberry, S.J., Panis, C.W.A., and Shang, B. (2004). Health status and medical treatment of the future elderly: Final report. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA. Gruber, J. and Wise, D. (eds.) (1999). Social Security and retirement around the world. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Hartman, M., Martin, A., Nuccio, O., Catlin, A., and the National Health Expenditure Accounts Team. (2010). Health spending growth at a historic low in 2008. Health Affairs, 29(1), 147-155. Heidenreich, P.A., McClellan, M., Frances, C., and Baker, L.C. (2001). The relation between managed care market share and the treatment of elderly fee-for-service patients with myocardial infarction. (NBER Working Paper 8065). Available: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8065. Jemal, A., Ward, E., Anderson, R., Murray, T., and Thun, M. (2008). Widening of socioeconomic inequalities in U.S. death rates, 1993-2001. PLoS ONE, 3(5), e2181. Karlamangla, A.S., Merkin, S.S., Crimmins, E.M., and Seeman. T.E. (no date). Socioeconomic and ethnic disparities in cardiovascular risk in the United States, 2001-2006. (Unpublished manuscript).
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Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop Lakdawalla, D., Bhattacharya, J., and Goldman, D. (2004). Are the young becoming more disabled? Health Affairs, 23(1), 168-176. Lee, R. (2004). Quantifying our ignorance: Stochastic forecasts of population and public budgets. In L.J. Waite (Ed.), Aging, health, and public policy: Demographics of economic perspectives. [Supplement to Population and Development Review, 30.] New York: Population Council. Lubitz, J., Cai, L., Kramarowm E., and Lentzner, H. (2003). Health, life expectancy, and health care spending among the elderly. New England Journal of Medicine, 349, 1048-1055. Manton, K.G., XiLiang, G., and Lamb, V. (2006). Change in chronic disability from 1982 to 2004/2005 as measured by long-term changes in function and health in the U.S. elderly population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(48), 18374-18379. Medicare Payment Advisory Commission. (2009, March). Report to the Congress: Medicare payment policy. Available: http://www.medpac.gov/documents/Mar09_EntireReport.pdf. Reynolds, S., and Crimmins, E.M.. (2009). Trends in ability to work among men and women in the older American population: 1997-2007. Paper presented at the annual meeting of REVES (Copenhagen). Ruhm, C.J. (2007). Current and future prevalence of obesity and severe obesity in the United States. Forum for Health Economics and Policy. Obesity, 10(2), Article 6. Available: http://www.bepress.com/fhep/10/2/6. Schoeni, R.F., Freedman, V.A., and Martin, L.G. (2008). Why is late-life disability declining? Milbank Quarterly, 86, 47-89. Shekelle, P.G., Ortiz, E., Newberry, S.J., Rich, M.W., Rhodes, S.L., Brook, R.H., and Goldman, D.P. (2005). Identifying potential health care innovations for the future elderly. Health Affairs, W5, R67-R76. Technical Review Panel on the Medicare Trustees Report. (2000). Review of the assumptions and methods of the Medicare Trustees’ financial projections. Available: http://www.cms.gov/ReportsTrustFunds/downloads/tr2009.pdf. Technical Review Panel on the Medicare Trustees Report. (2004). Review of the assumptions and methods of the Medicare Trustees’ financial projections. Available: http//www.aspe.gov/health/medpanel/2004/2004_Technical_Review_Panel_on_the_Medicare_Trustees_Report.pdf. Thorpe, K. (2009). The future costs of obesity: National and state estimates of the impact of obesity on direct health care expenses. Available: http://www.fightchronicdisease.org/pdfs/CostofObesityReport-FINAL.pdf. Thorpe, K.E., and Howard, D.H. (2006). The rise in spending among Medicare beneficiaries: The role of chronic disease prevalence and changes in treatment intensity. Health Affairs, 25, 5. Thorpe, K.E., Florence, C.S., Howard, D.H., and Joski, P. (2004). Trends: The impact of obesity on rising medical spending. Health Affairs, Suppl Web Exclusive W4:480-486. Thorpe, K.E., Ogden, L.O., and Galactionova, K. (2010, April). Chronic conditions account for rise in Medicare spending from 1987 to 2006. Health Affairs, 29, 4. van Meijgaard, J, Fielding, J.E., and Kominski, G.F. (2009). Assessing and forecasting population health: Integrating knowledge and beliefs in a comprehensive framework. Public Health Reports, 124, 778-789. Wang, Y., Baydoun, M., Liang, L., Caballerno, B., and Kumanyika, S. (2008, July 24) Will all Americans become overweight or obese? Estimating the progression and cost of the US obesity epidemic. Obesity, 16(10), 2323-2330. Weizman, M. (2001). Gamma discounting. American Economic Review, 91(1), 260-271.
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Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population: Summary of a Workshop White, C. (2006, July). The slowdown in Medicare spending growth. Working Paper 2006-08, Congressional Budget Office. Available: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/74xx/doc7453/2006-08.pdf. White, C. (2008). Why did Medicare spending growth slow down? Health Affairs, 27(3), 793-802.