Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

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The U.S. National Academies have had an ongoing program of cooperation with the Chinese Academies (Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Engineering) since the late 1990s, focusing on issues of mutual interest in the fields of energy and environmental management. Their first joint publication, Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States (2000), was the first examination of broad energy questions both nations faced as they entered the new millennium.

This initial study was followed by Personal Cars in China (2003), which examined China’s nascent automotive industry and the implications of increasing personal vehicle use. Subsequently, the respective Academies jointly published Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead (2004) and Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States (2007), offering two detailed examinations of the interrelation between energy use and air quality on an urban scale. By the time this last study had concluded, the committees had witnessed a dramatic shift in terms of global interest in energy issues, climate change, and the U.S.-Chinese bilateral relationship.

It is against this backdrop that the present study was developed. Leaders from both countries’ respective Academies agreed that renewable energy provided a topic of mutual interest, with implications domestically and globally, and with important scientific and technical questions to address. Upon consultations with government agencies in each country, the respective Academies proposed a study that would focus on utility-scale electricity generation from three major resources: wind, solar, and biomass.

The expert committees appointed by the Academies were tasked with comparatively assessing resource potential, exploring near-term market opportunities for mature technologies, and providing recommendations on priorities for enhanced U.S.-Chinese cooperation in this field. Recognizing that a tremendous amount of work was already underway, at a domestic level in each country but also bilaterally in the form of public and private collaborations, the committees sought to identify areas where cooperation might bring the most benefits in terms of technology development, cost reduction, or deployment.

Four bilateral meetings were organized over the course of 12 months so that the committees could jointly gather information, examine issues on a regional basis, and formulate their joint findings and recommendations. Meetings were held in Guangzhou and Beijing (December 2008), Hawaii (March 2009), Xining, Qinghai province (July 2009), and Colorado and California (October 2009). During each of the meetings, committee members benefited from the help of state/provincial and local government agencies, local industries and electric utilities, and local universities and research laboratories. This report has been prepared on the basis of those visits, the information provided during the public meetings, publicly available data and academic literature, and the professional expertise of the U.S. and Chinese committee members. The report attempts to provide side-by-side comparisons where possible, but in sections where more information or data were available on the United States than on China, the committees decided to present this additional information rather than omit it. This is particularly true for information on resource assessments in China, and so the additional information on experience in the United States should be instructive as China improves its own capacity in this field.

This study did not examine in detail the trade, intellectual property, and economic competitiveness issues that are an important dynamic of the U.S.-Chinese bilateral relationship. The committees acknowledge in several places in the report that these issues have a bearing on U.S.-Chinese cooperation in renewable energy, but the committees do not provide any specific recommendations on trade or intellectual property matters, which are outside the scope of the report. The study also does not explicitly examine the effect of climate change legislation, in the form of an economy-wide cap or tax on greenhouse gas emissions, on bilateral cooperation in renewable energy, although it does describe how these mechanisms could affect the market for renewable power. Such legislation, or a global agreement to reduce emissions, would eventually influence the structure and timing of some cooperation, but as the report notes, cooperation has been ongoing for many years and is motivated by a range of factors.

We hope that the resultant report is of value to decisionmakers in both countries, as well as to a broader international audience. We face many challenges in scaling up electricity generation from renewables, and we acknowledge that renewables represent one portion of a larger, diverse portfolio of energy options.

But it is our hope that international cooperation in this field, between the United States, China, and the global community, can help accelerate progress toward a cleaner energy future.

We were honored to serve as chairs of these distinguished committees, and we compliment the U.S. and Chinese committee members for their efforts throughout this study process.

Lawrence T. Papay

U.S. committee chair

Zhao Zhongxian

Chinese committee chair

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We wish to thank the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Policy and International Affairs, the U.S. Department of State, the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, the George and Cynthia Mitchell Foundation for Sustainability Science, Google.org, the U.S. National Academy of Engineering, the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Engineering Directorate, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Chinese Academy of Engineering for their financial support of this project.

The committees also wish to thank the many individuals and organizations who so graciously hosted us and organized site visits for us as part of our bilateral meetings. On the Chinese side, we would like to thank the Development and Reform Commission of Guangdong Province, the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Guangzhou Institute for Energy Conversion, Guangzhou Xingfeng Landfill Gas Recovery and Electricity Generation Plant, Nanbo Group Co. Ltd., Guangdong Fivestar Solar Energy Co. Ltd., Camda New Energy Science & Technology Co. Ltd., Guanting Wind Power Plant, Badaling Solar Thermal Power Station, Tianwei Yingli New Energy Resources Co. Ltd., Baoding Huayi Wind Turbine Blade Research and Development Co. Ltd., Qinghai Province Department of Science and Technology, Asia Silicon (Qinghai) Co. Ltd., Qinghai Huagui Energy Co. Ltd., Qinghai Suntech Nima Solar Power Co. Ltd., Qinghai New Energy Group Co. Ltd., Qinghai Institute of Salt Lakes (CAS), and Zhuangkuo Solar Valley.

On the U.S. side, we would like to thank the Governor’s Office of the State of Hawaii, the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, Hawaiian Electric Company Inc., U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM), the University of Hawaii, Hilo, Hawaiian Electric Light Company Inc., Puna Geothermal Ventures, Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority, SunPower

Corp., Parker Ranch, Mauna Lani Resort, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Southern California Edison.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Academies’ Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Maxine Savitz (retired), Honeywell, Inc. Appointed by the National Academies, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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