Coffee break

Session 2:
Evolving Methods and Approaches, Thomas J. Wilbanks, Chair


Philosophies and State of Science in Projecting Long-Term Socioeconomic Change, Robert Lempert


Panel Discussion: Issues in Projecting Socioeconomic Change

  • Demographic Change, Thomas Buettner

  • Economic Development, Gary Yohe

  • Connecting Narrative Story Lines with Quantitative Socioeconomic Projections, Ritu Mathur

  • Quantitative Downscaling Approaches, Tom Kram

  • U.S. Department of Interior Scenarios

12:30 p.m.


Session 3:
Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties—Adaptation/Vulnerability and Mitigation, Chris Field, Chair

This session will include both plenary and breakout groups that seek to stimulate discussion of the major forces that will influence future vulnerability, adaptation potential, and mitigation potential to be analyzed in future scenarios. Breakout groups will meet for several hours today and reconvene over lunch on Friday.


Importance of “Driving Forces” and Critical Uncertainties in Scenario Construction, M. Granger Morgan


Panel and Open Discussion: Illustrative Drivers and Uncertainties for Adaptation/Vulnerability and Mitigation

This session will include short (5-minute) interventions on driving forces and disciplinary perspectives in a number of domains relevant to assessing future vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Open discussion involving all participants will follow.


  • Population, Brian O’Neill

  • Economy and Infrastructure, Gary Yohe

  • Technology, Nebojsa Nakićenov

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