4

 

Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties in Adaptation, Vulnerability, and Mitigation

 

21

   

 Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties in Scenario Construction,

 

21

   

 Brief Presentations on Specific Drivers,

 

22

 

 

Discussion,

 

28

5

 

Representative Concentration Pathways and Socioeconomic Scenarios and Narratives

 

29

   

 Characteristics, Uses, and Limits of Representative Concentration Pathways,

 

29

   

 Multimodel Analysis of Key Assumptions Underlying Representative Concentration Pathways,

 

31

6

 

Lessons from Experience

 

33

   

 Personal Experiences with Scenarios,

 

33

   

 The U.S. National Assessment,

 

34

   

 The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment,

 

36

   

 The Asia Low-Carbon Society Project,

 

37

   

 The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios,

 

37

   

 The UK Climate Impacts Program and the Netherlands Experience,

 

38

   

 Discussion,

 

38

7

 

Reports from Breakout Groups

 

41

   

 Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Scenarios for 2020-2050,

 

41

   

 Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Issues to 2100, 42 Scenarios for Mitigation to 2100,

 

43

   

 Possible Products for the Fifth Assessment Report and Implications for Working Groups 2 and 3,

 

44

   

 What the IAV and IAM Communities Might Get from Each Other,

 

45

8

 

Concluding Comments

 

47

 

 

References

 

49

 

 

Appendixes

 

 

A

 

Workshop Agenda and List of Participants

 

51

B

 

Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff

 

59



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