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Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop A Workshop Announcement and Agenda NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WORKSHOP ON MODELING THE ECONOMICS OF GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION April 15-16, 2010 Washington, DC On behalf of the National Academies’ Board on Energy and Environmental Systems and the planning committee for the Workshop on Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation, we would like to invite you to our workshop scheduled for April 15-16, 2010, at the NAS Auditorium (2100 C Street NW) in Washington, D.C. Our goal is to stimulate a dialogue about the relative strengths and weaknesses of models used to assess the economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This workshop will be comprised of four major sessions taking place over the 2 days. These sessions and their times are listed below. Thursday, April 15 at 9:45 am Uses and Abuses of Marginal Abatement Supply Curves Thursday, April 15 at 1:30 pm Uses and Abuses of Learning/Experience/Knowledge Curves Friday, April 16 at 8:30 am Offsets—What’s Assumed, What is Known/Not Known, What Difference They Make Friday, April 16 at 1:30 pm Storylines, Scenarios, and the Limits of Long-Term Socio-Techno-Economic Forecasting This workshop is open to the public in its entirety, so RSVP is not necessary. For a more detailed agenda, including speakers and times, please see below.
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Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop Agenda Thursday, April 15 8:15 AM Registration and greeting 9:00 AM Welcome—Objectives and Motivation for Workshop John Weyant, Workshop Planning Committee Chair 9:10 AM Opening Remarks Rick Duke, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Climate Policy, DOE 9:20 AM Setting the Stage Administrator Richard Newell, Energy Information Administration 9:45 AM Panel Session: Uses and Abuses of Bottom-Up Marginal Abatement Supply Curves Planning Subgroup John Weyant (lead) Rich Richels Karen Palmer 9:45 AM Issues in the Use of Energy Conservation and GHG Abatement Cost Curves Mark Jaccard, Simon Frasier University 10:15 AM Efficiency Cost Curves—Empirical Insights for Energy-Climate Modeling Jayant Sathaye, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 10:45 AM Break 11:05 AM Discussion Session Marilyn Brown, Georgia Institute of Technology Rich Richels, Electric Power Research Institute Howard Gruenspecht, Energy Information Administration Hillard Huntington, Stanford University 11:45 PM Audience questions and answers 12:15 PM Lunch 1:30 PM Panel Session: Uses and Abuses of Learning/Experience/Knowledge Curves Planning Subgroup Marilyn Brown (lead) Steve Smith 1:30 PM Beyond the “Black Box” of Learning Curves: Their Use and Misuse in Assessments of Technological Change Nebojsa Nakicenoviic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 2:00 PM The Perils of the Learning Model for Modeling Endogenous Technological Change William Nordhaus, Yale University
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Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop 2:30 PM Uncertainties in Learning Curves for Climate Policy Analysis Edward Rubin, Carnegie Mellon University 3:00 PM Break 3:15 PM Discussion Session Jae Edmonds—Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Greg Nemet—University of Wisconsin David Greene—Oak Ridge National Laboratory 4:00 PM Audience questions and answers 4:30 PM Adjourn Friday, April 16 8:30 AM Panel Session: Offsets—What’s Assumed, What is Known/Not Known, What Difference They Make Planning subgroup Karen Palmer (lead) Rich Richels 8:30 AM Role of Offsets in Global and Domestic Climate Policy Ray Kopp, Resources For the Future 9:00 AM International Offsets: The Potential Role of the Energy Sector Geoff Blanford, Electrical Power Research Institute 9:30 AM Assessment of Forests and Other Land Based Offsets: Costs and Benefits Brent Sohngen, Ohio State University 10:00 AM Offsets in Policy Modeling Allen Fawcett, Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Economics Branch 10:30 AM Break 11:00 AM Discussion session Analysis of Clean Development Mechanism David Victor, University of California, San Diego Data Needs for Offset Verification Molly Macauley, Resources for the Future 11:50 AM Audience questions and answers 12:15 PM Lunch
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Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop 1:30 PM Panel Discussion: Storylines, Scenarios, and the Limits of Long-Term Socio-Techno-Economic Forecasting Planning subgroup Steve Smith (lead) Rich Richels Bill Nordhaus 1:30 PM Moderator’s Opening Remarks Steven Smith, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 1:40 PM Next Generation Scenarios for Climate Modeling and Research on Adaptation and Mitigation Richard Moss, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 2:10 PM Scenarios for Climate Economics Modeling Dale Jorgenson, Harvard University 2:40 PM Audience Q&A Session 3:00 PM Closing Roundtable—Reflections on the Workshop and Future Topics Workshop Planning Committee John Weyant Rich Richels Bill Nordhaus Karen Palmer Steve Smith Marilyn Brown 4:00 PM End of Workshop