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Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop (2010)

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Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

This study was supported by funding from the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AM01-04PI45013/DE-DT0000010/002. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-16235-7

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-16235-1

Copies of this report are available from the

National Academies Press,

500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.

Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

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Front Matter (R1-R10)
1 Introduction (1-3)
2 Uses and Abuses of Marginal Abatement Supply Curves (4-8)
3 Uses and Abuses of Learning, Experience, and Knowledge Curves (9-12)
4 Offsets - What's Assumed, What Is Known/Not Known, and What Difference They Make (13-18)
5 Story Lines, Scenarios, and the Limits of Long-Term Socio-Techno-Economic Forecasting (19-21)
6 Reflections on the Workshop (22-24)
References (25-26)
Appendixes (27-28)
Appendix A: Workshop Announcement and Agenda (29-32)
Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Planning Committee Members, Speakers, and Discussants (33-40)
Appendix C: Papers Submitted by Workshop Speakers (41-41)
Paradigms of Energy Efficiency's Cost and Their Policy Implications: Déjà Vu All Over Again--Mark Jaccard (42-51)
Energy Efficiency Cost Curves: Empirical Insights for Energy-Climate Modeling--Jayant Sathaye and Amol Phadke (52-68)
The Perils of the Learning Model For Modeling Endogenous Technological Change--William D. Nordhaus (69-75)
Uncertainties in Technology Experience Curves for Energy-Economic Models--Sonia Yeh and Edward Rubin (76-91)
Role of Offsets in Global and Domestic Climate Policy--Raymond J. Kopp (92-99)
Carbon Offsets in Forest and Land Use--Brent Sohngen (100-108)
Measurement and Monitoring of Forests in Climate Policy Design--Molly K. Macauley (109-110)
International Offsets Usage in Proposed U.S. Climate Change Legislation--Allen A. Fawcett (111-131)
The Politics and Economics of International Carbon Offsets--David G. Victor (132-142)
Developing Narratives for Next-Generation Scenarios Climate Change Research and Assessment--Richard Moss (143-150)