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Evaluation of a Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the Department of Homeland Security's Planned National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas Committee on the Evaluation of a Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the Department of Homeland Security’s Planned National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas Board on Life Sciences Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources Division on Earth and Life Studies THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. w ww.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. HSFLBP-10-C-00001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-16281-4 International Standard book Number-10: 0-309-16281-5 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON THE EVALUATION OF A SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY’S PLANNED NATIONAL BIO- AND AGRO- DEFENSE FACILITY IN MANHATTAN, KANSAS RONALD M. ATLAS (Chair), Professor of Biology and Public Health and Co-director, Center for Health Preparedness, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY THOMAS W. ARMSTRONG, Principal Investigator, TWA8HR Occupational Hygiene Consulting, LLC, Branchburg, NJ MICHAEL S. ASCHER, Visiting Researcher, University of California, Davis, CA MARK T. HERNANDEZ, Professor of Environmental Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO BARBARA JOHNSON, Consultant for Biosafety and Biosecurity, Johnson & Associates, LLC, Herndon, VA BRENDAN MCCLUSKEY, Executive Director, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, Newark, NJ KISHOR C. MEHTA, P.W. Horn Professor of Civil Engineering, Texas Technical University, Lubbock, TX FREDERICK A. MURPHY, Professor of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, TX PHILIP L. PAARLBERG, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN TIMOTHY C. RELUGA, Assistant Professor of Mathematics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA JAMES A. ROTH, Clarence Hartley Covault Distinguished Professor, Iowa State University, Ames, IA MARK C. THURMOND, Professor Emeritus, University of California, Davis, CA AKULA VENKATRAM, Professor of Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Riverside, CA STAFF PEGGY TSAI, Study Director and Program Officer CARL-GUSTAV ANDERSON, Senior Program Assistant FRANCES E. SHARPLES, Director, Board on Life Sciences ROBIN A. SCHOEN, Director, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources NORMAN GROSSBLATT, Senior Editor v

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BOARD ON LIFE SCIENCES KEITH R. YAMAMOTO (Chair), University of California, San Francisco, CA ANN M. ARVIN, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA BONNIE L. BASSLER, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ VICKI L. CHANDLER, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Palo Alto, CA SEAN EDDY, HHMI Janelia Farm Research Campus, Ashburn, VA MARK D. FITZSIMMONS, John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Chicago, IL DAVID R. FRANZ, Midwest Research Institute, Frederick, MD LOUIS J. GROSS, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN JO HANDELSMAN, Yale University, New Haven, CN CATO T. LAURENCIN, University of Connecticut Health Center, Farmington, CN JONATHAN D. MORENO, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA ROBERT M. NEREM, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA CAMILLE PARMESAN, University of Texas, Austin, TX MURIEL E. POSTON, Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, NY ALISON G. POWER, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY BRUCE W. STILLMAN, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, Cold Spring Harbor, NY CYNTHIA WOLBERGER, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD MARY WOOLLEY, Research!America, Alexandria, VA STAFF FRANCES E. SHARPLES, Director JO L. HUSBANDS, Scholar and Senior Project Director JAY B. LABOV, Senior Scientist and Program Director for Biology Education KATHERINE W. BOWMAN, Senior Program Officer MARILEE K. SHELTON-DAVENPORT, Senior Program Officer INDIA HOOK-BARNARD, Program Officer ANNA FARRAR, Financial Associate CARL-GUSTAV ANDERSON, Senior Program Assistant AMANDA MAZZAWI, Senior Program Assistant SAYYEDA AYESHA AHMED, Program Assistant vi

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BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES NORMAN R. SCOTT (Chair), Cornell University, Ithaca, NY PEGGY F. BARLETT, Emory University, Atlanta, GA HAROLD L. BERGMAN, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY RICHARD A. DIXON, Samuel Roberts Noble Foundation, Ardmore, OK DANIEL M. DOOLEY, University of California, Oakland, CA JOAN H. EISEMANN, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC GARY F. HARTNELL, Monsanto Company, St. Louis, MO GENE HUGOSON, Minnesota Department of Agriculture, St. Paul, MN KIRK C. KLASING, University of California, Davis, CA VICTOR L. LECHTENBERG, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN PHILIP E. NELSON, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN KEITH PITTS, Marrone Bio Innovations, Davis, CA CHARLES W. RICE, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS HAL SALWASSER, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR PEDRO A. SANCHEZ, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY ROGER A. SEDJO, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC KATHLEEN SEGERSON, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CN MERCEDES VÁZQUEZ-AÑÓN, Novus International, Inc., St. Charles, MO STAFF ROBIN A. SCHOEN, Director KAREN L. IMHOF, Administrative Coordinator AUSTIN J. LEWIS, Senior Program Officer EVONNE P.Y. TANG, Senior Program Officer PEGGY TSAI, Program Officer CAMILLA YANDOC ABLES, Associate Program Officer KARA N. LANEY, Associate Program Officer RUTH S. ARIETI, Research Associate JANET M. MULLIGAN, Research Associate KAMWETI MUTU, Research Associate KATHLEEN REIMER, Program Assistant vii

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report has been reviewed in draft form by persons chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of the independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following for their review of this report: E. Paul Gibbs, University of Florida Philip Hagan, Georgetown University Peter B. Jahrling, National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases Roger Kasperson, Clark University William W. Laegreid, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Jonathan Richmond, Jonathan Richmond & Associates Joseph Scire, Atmospheric Studies Group, TRC Gary Smith, University of Pennsylvania Alan Washburn, Naval Postgraduate School (Emeritus) Ronald H. White, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Alex Winter-Nelson¸ University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Corrie Brown, University of Georgia, and Lynn Goldman, George Washington University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered.1 Responsibility for the final content of this report rests with the author committee and the institution. After the prepublication version of the report was provided to the sponsor for a required security 1 review, the committee provided a few modifications in the text to clarify statements that may be misconstrued. ix

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CONTENTS LETTER FROM COMMITTEE CHAIR .............................................................................. xvii SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................1 1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................9 Background, 9 Committee’s Approach to its Task, 12 New Capabilities of and Risks Posed by the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility, 14 Proposed Site in Manhattan, Kansas, 16 Organization of the Report, 16 References, 17 2 CONSIDERATION OF SITE-SPECIFIC RISK AND MITIGATION FACTORS .........19 Site-Specific Characteristics that Affect Risk, 20 Site-Specific Factors that Affect Mitigation Plans, 22 References, 25 3 EVALUATION OF METHODS ............................................................................................27 Major Modeling Assumptions and Errors, 27 Modeling Critical Tornado and Air Dispersion Scenarios, 32 Epidemiological Modeling, 37 Economic Modeling, 44 References, 47 4 EVALUATION OF DESIGN PLANS AND PERSONNEL PREPAREDNESS................51 Facility Design for Biosafety and Biosecurity, 51 Personnel Training and Preparedness, 54 References, 56 5 OVERALL ASSESMENT, FINDINGS, AND CONCLUDING REMARKS ....................57 Overall Assessment, 57 Findings, 58 Concluding Remarks, 67 References, 68 xi

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APPENDIXES A Committee Biosketches .....................................................................................................71 B Preliminary Letter Report ..................................................................................................77 C Public Meeting Agendas..................................................................................................127 xii

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LIST OF FIGURES AND BOXES Figures 2-1 Map of the planned NBAF and the surrounding Manhattan, Kansas, vicinity, 21 3-1 Risk of release that results in FMD infection over the life span of the NBAF, 32 Boxes 1-1 Public Law 111-83: Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2010, 10 1-2 Statement of Task, 11 1-3 Summary of Recommendations from Preliminary Letter Report, 13 B-1 Statement of Task, 95 xiii

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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS BMBL – Biosafety in Microbiological and Biomedical Laboratories BRI – Biosecurity Research Institute BSE – bovine spongiform encephalopathy BSL – biosafety level CDC – Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CEEZAD – Center of Excellence for Emerging and Zoonotic Animal Diseases (DHS) DADS – Davis Animal Disease Simulation DHS – Department of Homeland Security EIS – environmental impact statement FAD – foreign animal disease FADD – foreign animal disease diagnostician FMD – foot-and-mouth disease FMDv – foot-and-mouth disease virus GAO – Government Accountability Office HAN – Health Alert Network HEPA – high-efficiency particulate air HSPD-9 – Homeland Security Presidential Directive 9, “Defense of United States Agriculture and Food” HVAC – heating, ventilating, and air conditioning IAQ – indoor air quality ID – infectious dose KSU – Kansas State University MRHC – Mercy Regional Health Center NAADSM – North American Animal Disease Spread Model NAHLN – National Animal Health Laboratory Network NBAF – Nation Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility NCMI – National Center for Medical Intelligence NIH – National Institutes of Health NOAA – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NorthCom – U.S. Northern Command NVS – National Veterinary Stockpile xv

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NWS – National Weather Service OIE – Organisation Mondiale de la Santé Animale (World Organisation for Animal Health) PCR – polymerase chain reaction PFU – plaque-forming units PIADC – Plum Island Animal Disease Center RVF – Rift Valley fever RVFV – Rift Valley fever virus SCIPUFF – second-order closure integrated puff model SME – subject matter experts SPC – Storm Prediction Center SSRA – site-specific risk assessment TRA – threat risk assessment USAMRIID – U.S. Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases USDA – U.S. Department of Agriculture UTMB – University of Texas Medical Branch WTP – willingness to pay xvi

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Board on Life Sciences 500 Fifth Street, NW Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources Washington, DC 20001 Phone: 202 334 2215 Fax: 202 334 1289 E-mail: bls@nas.edu November 1, 2010 The Honorable Tara O’Toole, M.D., M.P.H. Under Secretary for Science and Technology U.S. Department of Homeland Security Washington, DC 20528 Dear Dr. O’Toole: At the request of the U.S. Congress and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the National Research Council’s Division on Earth and Life Studies established the ad hoc Committee on the Evaluation of a Site-Specific Risk Assessment (SSRA) for the Department of Homeland Security’s Planned National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility (NBAF) in Manhattan, Kansas. The SSRA is extremely important for understanding the risks posed by and the potential effects of placing the NBAF in Manhattan, Kansas. It provides critical guidance for design and operation of the facility to ensure that risk can be reduced through appropriate design, training, and operational procedures; effects can also be reduced through surveillance and mitigation planning. The involvement of this committee is an important component of this critical activity. The committee examined the SSRA work plans and specific questions posed by DHS so that it could advise DHS about the approach to the SSRA. DHS completed the SSRA in late June 2010. In July and August 2010, DHS supplied additional written responses to the committee’s questions about the SSRA. All page references in this report are to the June 2010 version of the SSRA and the follow-up materials provided in July and August, which were submitted to the committee for its evaluation. Because of the time constraints imposed by Congress, the SSRA and its evaluation turned out to be a heroic effort, on the part of both DHS and the committee. A great deal of work was accomplished in a very short time. As chair of the committee, I wish to thank the NRC staff, the committee members, and DHS for their responsiveness to the demands of generating the SSRA and its review within the required time. This has been an interactive and iterative process aimed at producing the best estimates of risk and of potential effects associated with construction of the NBAF in Manhattan, Kansas. This final report constitutes the committee’s evaluation of the SSRA. Sincerely, Ronald M. Atlas, Chair COMMITTEE ON THE EVALUATION OF A SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY’S PLANNED NATIONAL BIO- AND AGRO-DEFENSE FACILITY IN MANHATTAN, KANSAS xvii

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