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Evaluation of a Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the
Department of Homeland Security's Planned National
Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas
Committee on the Evaluation of a Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the Department of
Homeland Security’s Planned National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan,
Kansas
Board on Life Sciences
Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources
Division on Earth and Life Studies
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
w ww.nap.edu
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences
and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. HSFLBP-10-C-00001 between the National Academy
of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do
not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the
project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-16281-4
International Standard book Number-10: 0-309-16281-5
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth
Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the
Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged
in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the
general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate
that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president
of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of
Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection
of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government.
The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs,
encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is
president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of
eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public.
The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be
an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and
education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad
community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal
government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the
principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in
providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is
administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest
are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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COMMITTEE ON THE EVALUATION OF A SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE
DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY’S PLANNED NATIONAL BIO- AND AGRO-
DEFENSE FACILITY IN MANHATTAN, KANSAS
RONALD M. ATLAS (Chair), Professor of Biology and Public Health and Co-director, Center
for Health Preparedness, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY
THOMAS W. ARMSTRONG, Principal Investigator, TWA8HR Occupational Hygiene
Consulting, LLC, Branchburg, NJ
MICHAEL S. ASCHER, Visiting Researcher, University of California, Davis, CA
MARK T. HERNANDEZ, Professor of Environmental Engineering, University of Colorado at
Boulder, Boulder, CO
BARBARA JOHNSON, Consultant for Biosafety and Biosecurity, Johnson & Associates, LLC,
Herndon, VA
BRENDAN MCCLUSKEY, Executive Director, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New
Jersey, Newark, NJ
KISHOR C. MEHTA, P.W. Horn Professor of Civil Engineering, Texas Technical University,
Lubbock, TX
FREDERICK A. MURPHY, Professor of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch at
Galveston, Galveston, TX
PHILIP L. PAARLBERG, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West
Lafayette, IN
TIMOTHY C. RELUGA, Assistant Professor of Mathematics, Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, PA
JAMES A. ROTH, Clarence Hartley Covault Distinguished Professor, Iowa State University,
Ames, IA
MARK C. THURMOND, Professor Emeritus, University of California, Davis, CA
AKULA VENKATRAM, Professor of Mechanical Engineering, University of California,
Riverside, CA
STAFF
PEGGY TSAI, Study Director and Program Officer
CARL-GUSTAV ANDERSON, Senior Program Assistant
FRANCES E. SHARPLES, Director, Board on Life Sciences
ROBIN A. SCHOEN, Director, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources
NORMAN GROSSBLATT, Senior Editor
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BOARD ON LIFE SCIENCES
KEITH R. YAMAMOTO (Chair), University of California, San Francisco, CA
ANN M. ARVIN, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA
BONNIE L. BASSLER, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ
VICKI L. CHANDLER, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Palo Alto, CA
SEAN EDDY, HHMI Janelia Farm Research Campus, Ashburn, VA
MARK D. FITZSIMMONS, John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Chicago, IL
DAVID R. FRANZ, Midwest Research Institute, Frederick, MD
LOUIS J. GROSS, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
JO HANDELSMAN, Yale University, New Haven, CN
CATO T. LAURENCIN, University of Connecticut Health Center, Farmington, CN
JONATHAN D. MORENO, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
ROBERT M. NEREM, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
CAMILLE PARMESAN, University of Texas, Austin, TX
MURIEL E. POSTON, Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, NY
ALISON G. POWER, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
BRUCE W. STILLMAN, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, Cold Spring Harbor, NY
CYNTHIA WOLBERGER, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
MARY WOOLLEY, Research!America, Alexandria, VA
STAFF
FRANCES E. SHARPLES, Director
JO L. HUSBANDS, Scholar and Senior Project Director
JAY B. LABOV, Senior Scientist and Program Director for Biology Education
KATHERINE W. BOWMAN, Senior Program Officer
MARILEE K. SHELTON-DAVENPORT, Senior Program Officer
INDIA HOOK-BARNARD, Program Officer
ANNA FARRAR, Financial Associate
CARL-GUSTAV ANDERSON, Senior Program Assistant
AMANDA MAZZAWI, Senior Program Assistant
SAYYEDA AYESHA AHMED, Program Assistant
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BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
NORMAN R. SCOTT (Chair), Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
PEGGY F. BARLETT, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
HAROLD L. BERGMAN, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY
RICHARD A. DIXON, Samuel Roberts Noble Foundation, Ardmore, OK
DANIEL M. DOOLEY, University of California, Oakland, CA
JOAN H. EISEMANN, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
GARY F. HARTNELL, Monsanto Company, St. Louis, MO
GENE HUGOSON, Minnesota Department of Agriculture, St. Paul, MN
KIRK C. KLASING, University of California, Davis, CA
VICTOR L. LECHTENBERG, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN
PHILIP E. NELSON, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN
KEITH PITTS, Marrone Bio Innovations, Davis, CA
CHARLES W. RICE, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS
HAL SALWASSER, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
PEDRO A. SANCHEZ, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY
ROGER A. SEDJO, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC
KATHLEEN SEGERSON, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CN
MERCEDES VÁZQUEZ-AÑÓN, Novus International, Inc., St. Charles, MO
STAFF
ROBIN A. SCHOEN, Director
KAREN L. IMHOF, Administrative Coordinator
AUSTIN J. LEWIS, Senior Program Officer
EVONNE P.Y. TANG, Senior Program Officer
PEGGY TSAI, Program Officer
CAMILLA YANDOC ABLES, Associate Program Officer
KARA N. LANEY, Associate Program Officer
RUTH S. ARIETI, Research Associate
JANET M. MULLIGAN, Research Associate
KAMWETI MUTU, Research Associate
KATHLEEN REIMER, Program Assistant
vii
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This report has been reviewed in draft form by persons chosen for their diverse
perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National
Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of the independent review is to
provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published
report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of
objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft
manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following for
their review of this report:
E. Paul Gibbs, University of Florida
Philip Hagan, Georgetown University
Peter B. Jahrling, National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases
Roger Kasperson, Clark University
William W. Laegreid, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Jonathan Richmond, Jonathan Richmond & Associates
Joseph Scire, Atmospheric Studies Group, TRC
Gary Smith, University of Pennsylvania
Alan Washburn, Naval Postgraduate School (Emeritus)
Ronald H. White, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Alex Winter-Nelson¸ University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and
suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they
see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by
Corrie Brown, University of Georgia, and Lynn Goldman, George Washington University.
Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an
independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional
procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered.1 Responsibility for the final
content of this report rests with the author committee and the institution.
After the prepublication version of the report was provided to the sponsor for a required security
1
review, the committee provided a few modifications in the text to clarify statements that may be
misconstrued.
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CONTENTS
LETTER FROM COMMITTEE CHAIR .............................................................................. xvii
SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................1
1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................9
Background, 9
Committee’s Approach to its Task, 12
New Capabilities of and Risks Posed by the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility, 14
Proposed Site in Manhattan, Kansas, 16
Organization of the Report, 16
References, 17
2 CONSIDERATION OF SITE-SPECIFIC RISK AND MITIGATION FACTORS .........19
Site-Specific Characteristics that Affect Risk, 20
Site-Specific Factors that Affect Mitigation Plans, 22
References, 25
3 EVALUATION OF METHODS ............................................................................................27
Major Modeling Assumptions and Errors, 27
Modeling Critical Tornado and Air Dispersion Scenarios, 32
Epidemiological Modeling, 37
Economic Modeling, 44
References, 47
4 EVALUATION OF DESIGN PLANS AND PERSONNEL PREPAREDNESS................51
Facility Design for Biosafety and Biosecurity, 51
Personnel Training and Preparedness, 54
References, 56
5 OVERALL ASSESMENT, FINDINGS, AND CONCLUDING REMARKS ....................57
Overall Assessment, 57
Findings, 58
Concluding Remarks, 67
References, 68
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APPENDIXES
A Committee Biosketches .....................................................................................................71
B Preliminary Letter Report ..................................................................................................77
C Public Meeting Agendas..................................................................................................127
xii
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LIST OF FIGURES AND BOXES
Figures
2-1 Map of the planned NBAF and the surrounding Manhattan, Kansas, vicinity, 21
3-1 Risk of release that results in FMD infection over the life span of the NBAF, 32
Boxes
1-1 Public Law 111-83: Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2010, 10
1-2 Statement of Task, 11
1-3 Summary of Recommendations from Preliminary Letter Report, 13
B-1 Statement of Task, 95
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
BMBL – Biosafety in Microbiological and Biomedical Laboratories
BRI – Biosecurity Research Institute
BSE – bovine spongiform encephalopathy
BSL – biosafety level
CDC – Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
CEEZAD – Center of Excellence for Emerging and Zoonotic Animal Diseases (DHS)
DADS – Davis Animal Disease Simulation
DHS – Department of Homeland Security
EIS – environmental impact statement
FAD – foreign animal disease
FADD – foreign animal disease diagnostician
FMD – foot-and-mouth disease
FMDv – foot-and-mouth disease virus
GAO – Government Accountability Office
HAN – Health Alert Network
HEPA – high-efficiency particulate air
HSPD-9 – Homeland Security Presidential Directive 9, “Defense of United States Agriculture
and Food”
HVAC – heating, ventilating, and air conditioning
IAQ – indoor air quality
ID – infectious dose
KSU – Kansas State University
MRHC – Mercy Regional Health Center
NAADSM – North American Animal Disease Spread Model
NAHLN – National Animal Health Laboratory Network
NBAF – Nation Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility
NCMI – National Center for Medical Intelligence
NIH – National Institutes of Health
NOAA – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NorthCom – U.S. Northern Command
NVS – National Veterinary Stockpile
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NWS – National Weather Service
OIE – Organisation Mondiale de la Santé Animale (World Organisation for Animal Health)
PCR – polymerase chain reaction
PFU – plaque-forming units
PIADC – Plum Island Animal Disease Center
RVF – Rift Valley fever
RVFV – Rift Valley fever virus
SCIPUFF – second-order closure integrated puff model
SME – subject matter experts
SPC – Storm Prediction Center
SSRA – site-specific risk assessment
TRA – threat risk assessment
USAMRIID – U.S. Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases
USDA – U.S. Department of Agriculture
UTMB – University of Texas Medical Branch
WTP – willingness to pay
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Board on Life Sciences 500 Fifth Street, NW
Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources Washington, DC 20001
Phone: 202 334 2215
Fax: 202 334 1289
E-mail: bls@nas.edu
November 1, 2010
The Honorable Tara O’Toole, M.D., M.P.H.
Under Secretary for Science and Technology
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Washington, DC 20528
Dear Dr. O’Toole:
At the request of the U.S. Congress and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS),
the National Research Council’s Division on Earth and Life Studies established the ad hoc
Committee on the Evaluation of a Site-Specific Risk Assessment (SSRA) for the Department of
Homeland Security’s Planned National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility (NBAF) in Manhattan,
Kansas. The SSRA is extremely important for understanding the risks posed by and the potential
effects of placing the NBAF in Manhattan, Kansas. It provides critical guidance for design and
operation of the facility to ensure that risk can be reduced through appropriate design, training,
and operational procedures; effects can also be reduced through surveillance and mitigation
planning. The involvement of this committee is an important component of this critical activity.
The committee examined the SSRA work plans and specific questions posed by DHS so that it
could advise DHS about the approach to the SSRA. DHS completed the SSRA in late June 2010.
In July and August 2010, DHS supplied additional written responses to the committee’s
questions about the SSRA. All page references in this report are to the June 2010 version of the
SSRA and the follow-up materials provided in July and August, which were submitted to the
committee for its evaluation. Because of the time constraints imposed by Congress, the SSRA
and its evaluation turned out to be a heroic effort, on the part of both DHS and the committee. A
great deal of work was accomplished in a very short time.
As chair of the committee, I wish to thank the NRC staff, the committee members, and
DHS for their responsiveness to the demands of generating the SSRA and its review within the
required time. This has been an interactive and iterative process aimed at producing the best
estimates of risk and of potential effects associated with construction of the NBAF in Manhattan,
Kansas. This final report constitutes the committee’s evaluation of the SSRA.
Sincerely,
Ronald M. Atlas, Chair
COMMITTEE ON THE EVALUATION OF A SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND
SECURITY’S PLANNED NATIONAL BIO- AND AGRO-DEFENSE FACILITY IN MANHATTAN, KANSAS
xvii
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