has served as president for the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. He has received the Outstanding Teaching Award from Ohio University’s College of Arts and Sciences and two Teaching Recognition Awards from Ohio University. He has a B.A from Carleton College, an M.S. in psychology from the University of Michigan, and a Ph.D. in psychology from the University of Michigan.


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and the Silver professor of politics at New York University. In the broad context of international conflict, foreign policy formation, and nation building, his current research focuses on the links between political institutions, economic growth, and political change. He is also investigating the causes and consequences of international conflict, as well as national security policy forecasting and analysis. He is an elected member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a member of the American Political Science Association, the International Studies Association, and the Peace Science Society. He is also a member of the board of advisers of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. He has a B.A. from Queens College, an M.A. and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan, and an honorary doctorate from the University of Groningen in the Netherlands.


Cherie Chauvin (Study Director) is a program officer at the National Research Council, working on several studies and workshops relevant to defense and national security issues. Previously, she held several positions with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), where her work included support for military operations and liaison relationships in Japan, South Korea, and Mongolia, as well as conducting intelligence collection operations in Afghanistan to answer strategic and tactical military intelligence requirements. In recognition of her service, she was awarded the DIA Civilian Expeditionary Medal, the Department of the Army Commander’s Award for Civilian Service, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence National Meritorious Unit Citation. She holds a B.S. in cognitive science from the University of California at San Diego, an M.A. in international relations from The Maxwell School at Syracuse University, and an M.S. in strategic intelligence from the National Defense Intelligence College.


Thomas Fingar is a research scholar at Stanford University. Previously, he served as deputy director of national intelligence for analysis at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and chairman of the National Intelligence Council, and as assistant secretary of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the U.S. Department of State. Prior to joining the State



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