FIGURE 4.11 WSA-Enlil simulation of solar wind transient associated with Galaxy 15 failure in April 2010. Solar wind density is indicated by color in the heliospheric equatorial plane, and a coronal mass ejection approaching Earth is shown by the three-dimensional white structure. This ejecta drives a moderate interplanetary shock with a speed of >900 km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field lines are shown by red lines. SOURCE: Courtesy of Dusan Odstrcil, George Mason University.
From an operational perspective, it is clear that models are essential to predict the state of the system, to specify the current conditions, and to provide information at locations not served by sensors (see Figure 4.11). Recent results of “metric challenges”18 and validation efforts demonstrate that models must be improved in order to meet the demands of both now-casting and forecasting. Although substantial progress has been made over the past decade in understanding the fundamental physics of space weather, leading to better physics-based, integrated models of the dynamic space environment, users can benefit from this improved understanding only if it is incorporated in operationally useful forecast tools. Transitioning to
18 Acquiring quantitative metrics-based knowledge about the performance of various space physics modeling approaches is central for the space weather community. Quantification of the performance helps the users of the modeling products to better understand the capabilities of the models and to choose the approach that best suits their specific needs. See A. Pulkkinen, M. Kuznetsova, A. Ridley, J. Raeder, A. Vapirev, D. Weimer, R.S. Weigel, M. Wiltberger, G. Millward, L. Rastätter, M. Hesse, H.J. Singer, and A. Chulaki, Geospace Environment Modeling 2008-2009 Challenge: Ground magnetic field perturbations, Space Weather 9:S02004, doi:10.1029/2010SW000600, 2011.