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7
A Vision for Space Weather and Climatology
MOTIVATION
Consider what would happen if access were lost to the NOAA weather satellite data used to
forecast hurricanes and the GPS satellites that enable navigation and precise timing services. The
availability of timely and reliable space-based information about our environment underpins the
fundamental infrastructure of today’s society. Society expects and relies upon instant coverage of events,
the ability to communicate to remote corners of the world, and the availability of geospatial information
needed for national security and other purposes. However, the space-based technologies that provide this
information are vulnerable to the conditions in the dynamic and complex space environment through
which radio waves propagate and where satellites orbit. In this chapter, the survey committee presents its
vision for a comprehensive program consisting of observations, models, and forecasting, enhanced
beyond current capabilities, to help protect these critical technologies.
Economic and Societal Value
From economic and societal perspectives, reliable knowledge on a range of time scales of
conditions in the geospace environment (including the mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, exosphere,
geocorona, plasmasphere and magnetosphere) is important for multiple applications, prominent among
them radio signal utilization (which enables increasingly precise navigation and communication) and drag
on Earth-orbiting objects (which alters the location of spacecraft, threatens their functionality by
collisions with debris, and impedes reliable reentry determination). Energetic particles can damage assets
and humans in space. Currents induced in ground systems can disrupt and damage power grids and
pipelines, and this topic has been a recent research focus (see Box 7.1).
Understanding space weather and climate is a prerequisite to fulfilling at least two directives of
U.S. National Space Policy.1
1. “Take necessary measures to sustain the radiofrequency environment in which critical U.S.
space systems operate.” Societal use of the radio wave spectrum is growing dramatically but its reliability
and precision depends fundamentally on conditions in the ionosphere, which alters the paths and
properties of radio waves of all frequencies, including GPS signals.
2. Preserve the space environment, in part by pursuing “research and development of
technologies and techniques…to mitigate and remove on-orbit debris, reduce hazards, and increase
understanding of the current and future debris environment” and leading “the continued development and
adoption of international and industry standards to minimize debris.” Satellite drag is relevant to orbit and
reentry prediction and to long-term mitigation of orbital debris. The recent inability, for example, to
forecast the demise of the UARS spacecraft underscores limitations in current ability to model and
understand the interaction of Earth-orbiting objects with the upper atmosphere. Space junk now exceeds
1
“National Space Policy of the United States of America,” June 28, 2010, available at
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/649374main_062810_national_space_policy.pdf.
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FIGURE 7.1 Snapshot of debris larger than 10 cm dimension in low-Earth orbit on 1 May 2001.
SOURCE: Hugh Lewis, University of Southampton.
22,000 objects larger than a softball shown schematically in Figure 7.1; collisions are expected to become
more frequent (and may have propelled the UARS satellite into a less stable orbit).
Previous National Research Council reports2 and the interagency National Space Weather
Program Strategic Plan3 document the United States’ need for increased capability to specify and predict
the weather and climate of the space environment. Growth in the number of space weather customers
since NOAA initiated a customer subscription service in 2004 (see Figure 7.2) is another important
indicator of the increasing space weather needs of the United States. Note that the number of customers
has been growing rapidly despite the deep and long-lasting solar minimum for much of the time period
shown.
2
National Research Council reports Severe Space Weather: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A
Workshop Report (2008) and Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris
Programs: An Assessment of NASA's Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (2011), both published by The
National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
3
Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, National Space
Weather Program Strategic Plan, FCM-P30-2010, June 2010, available at http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-sp/fcm-
p30.htm.
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FIGURE 7.2 Number of unique customer subscribers routinely receiving Space Weather Prediction
Center’s (SWPC) space weather services electronically, service beginning 2004. SOURCE: Updated
from E. Hildner, H. Singer, and T. Onsager, Space weather workshop: A catalyst for partnerships,
Space Weather 9:S03006, doi:10.1029/2011SW000660, 2011.
BEGIN BOX****************************************************************
BOX 7.1
Predicting Geomagnetically Induced Currents on the Power Grid: An Example of a Critical
National Need
A geomagnetic storm is caused by energetic streams of particles and magnetic flux that originate from
the Sun and impact and distort Earth’s magnetic field. The transient changes in Earth’s magnetic field
interact with the long wires of the power grid, causing electrical currents to flow in the grid. The grid is
designed to handle AC currents effectively, but not the DC currents induced by a geomagnetic storm.
These currents, called geomagnetically induced currents (GICs; also known as ground-induced currents),
cause imbalances in electrical equipment, reducing its performance and leading to dangerous
overheating.1
Solar and space physicists, working with bulk power grid engineers, have helped to create the
capability to model the effects of GICs on electricity transmission and distribution systems. This crucially
important work relies on a body of knowledge built up over years of study. Today, sophisticated
modeling software is used to assess the response of the electrical power system to geomagnetic storms, to
assess the system’s vulnerabilities, and to develop mitigation strategies, an important example of which is
work to develop sensors that can detect transformer saturation (via harmonic detection) and overheating.
With this information, operators can take steps to protect costly (on the order of $10 million) and difficult
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to replace transformers. Additionally, in response to the prediction of intense geomagnetic disturbances,
utilities will pre-position replacement equipment at key locations of high vulnerability. Such measures are
critical to restoration of bulk power capabilities from a possibly crippling space weather event.
The electric power industry continues to rely on the latest developments in space weather forecasting
and thus would benefit directly from implementation of the research- and application-related programs
that are recommended in this report.
1
Adapted from National Research Council, Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and
Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2008.
END BOX****************************************************************
STRENGTHENING THE CURRENT NATIONAL SPACE WEATHER PROGRAM
U.S. space-based operational environment monitoring, currently based on NOAA GOES, POES,
and DOD DMSP satellites, is of recognized fundamental importance to both space weather operational
and research communities. However, despite well-documented vulnerability of essential societal,
economic and security services space environment monitoring remains resource challenged.4 For example,
key energetic particle measurements now made by the POES and DMSP spacecraft are not currently
slated to continue with the next generation of low-Earth orbiting weather satellites. The 2010 NSWP
Strategic Plan5 lists the following four recommendations for this decade.
1. Establish a NSWP focal point in the Executive Office of the President
2. Ensure continuity of critical data sources
3. Strengthen the science to user chain
4. Emphasize public user awareness of Space Weather critical needs
The following vision for an increased NASA role and increased resources for NASA, NOAA, NSF and
DOD space weather activities supports these goals.
RESEARCH SOURCES OF SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION
NASA research satellites, such as ACE, SOHO (with ESA), STEREO, and SDO, designed for
scientific studies have, over the past decade or more, provided critical measurements essential for
specifying and forecasting the space environment system, including the outward propagation of eruptive
solar events and solar wind conditions upstream from Earth. While these observational capabilities have
become essential for space environment operations, climatological monitoring, and research, NASA
currently has neither the mandate nor the budget to sustain these measurements into the future. A growing
literature has documented the need to provide a long-term strategy for monitoring in space, and elucidated
the large number of space weather effects, the forecasting of which depend critically on the availability of
suitable data streams.6 An example is the provision of measurements of particles and fields at the L1
4
See, for example, National Space Weather Program Strategic Plan, 2010, available at
http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-sp/fcm-p30.htm.
5
Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, National Space
Weather Program Strategic Plan, FCM-P30-2010, June 2010, available at http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-sp/fcm-
p30.htm.
6
See, for example, National Research Council, Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and
Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2008, and D.N. Baker
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Lagrange point (or, using technologies such as solar sails, closer to the Sun on the Sun-Earth line), which
is critical for short term forecasting of harmful space weather effects such as radiation, GPS accuracy
reduction, and potentially deleterious geomagnetically induced currents on the power grid. Previous
National Research Council reports7 and the 2010 National Space Weather Program Strategic Plan8 have
demonstrated clear and tangible societal impacts, which specify need for proactive mitigation.
The decadal survey steering committee finds that the existing ad hoc approach towards the
provision of these capabilities is inadequate. The committee therefore articulates a vision for an enhanced
national commitment by partnering agencies for continuous measurements of critical space environment
parameters, analogous to the monitoring of the terrestrial environment NASA is conducting in
collaboration with a number of other agencies, for example, NOAA and the U.S. Geological Survey
(USGS). The committee anticipates the criticality of such a program growing in priority relative to other
societal demands and envisions that NASA utilize its unique space-based capabilities as the basis for a
new program that could provide sustained monitoring of key space environment observables to meet this
pressing national need (see Box 7.1). In addition to ensuring the continuity of critical measurements,
robust space environment models capable of operational deployment are also necessary for the prediction
and specification of conditions where observations are lacking. The committee anticipates that it will take
decades to achieve a space environment weather and climatology infrastructure equivalent to current
capabilities in the modeling and forecasting of terrestrial weather and climate; thus, it is necessary to start
immediately. The committee’s vision for achieving critical continuity of key space environment
parameters, their utilization in advanced models and application to operations is a major endeavor that
will require unprecedented cooperation among agencies in areas where they have specific expertise and
unique capabilities.
CORE ELEMENTS OF A ROBUST SPACE WEATHER AND CLIMATOLOGY PROGRAM
Like Earth’s near-surface environment, where climate and weather occur, the extended
operational environment that encompasses space weather and space climate varies continuously on
multiple time scales in response to forcing from the Sun, the heliosphere, and the underlying atmosphere.
To advance space weather and space climatology capabilities, it is essential to improve, and design
appropriately, the temporal and spatial coverage of space-based measurements and ground-based
measurements. A mixture of space-based and ground-based assets is needed: Space-based measurements
provide the coverage necessary for detecting space weather hazards, some of which are undetectable from
the ground, while ground-based measurements provide more extensive spatial coverage and a link to
historical measurements. However, at the present time, there is no path toward meeting all identified and
traceable national requirements. The committee believes a new approach is necessary to address these
shortcomings. Here, the committee describes the highest priority additional data needs, which will be
used to describe a notional new program for NASA, building upon the unique strengths of that agency.
and L.J. Lanzerotti, A continuous L1 presence required for space weather, Space Weather 6:S11001,
doi:10.1029/2008SW000445, 2008.
7
National Research Council reports Severe Space Weather: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A
Workshop Report (2008) and Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris
Programs: An Assessment of NASA's Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (2011), both published by The
National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
8
Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, National Space
Weather Program Strategic Plan, FCM-P30-2010, June 2010, available at http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-sp/fcm-
p30.htm.
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BEGIN BOX****************************************************************
BOX 7.2
Continuous Measurements for Space Weather and Climatology:
Complementing and Preserving Existing and Planned Observations
Solar-Heliosphere ….System Forcing
• Solar X-ray, extreme ultraviolet, and ultraviolet spectral irradiance and images, magnetograms
• Solar coronal-heliospheric images
• Solar wind (speed, density, temperature, ion composition)
• Interplanetary magnetic fields
• Energetic particles (solar and galactic)
Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere . . . System Response and Variability
• Neutral temperature
• Electron density profile and total electron content
• Total mass density
• Neutral winds
• Electric and magnetic fields
• Ionospheric scintillation (amplitude, phase, morphology)
• Composition of major species (especially O, and O+)
• Concentration of minor species (especially radiatively active gases)
• Wave activity on all scales (gravity and planetary waves, tides)
• Energetic particles (protons, electrons, ions, neutrals)
• Auroral morphology
END BOX****************************************************************
NEW ELEMENTS OF A SPACE ENVIRONMENT OPERATIONAL PROGRAM
Essential components of a robust space environment operational program that will complement what
exists today or, in some cases, provide much needed continuity of critical capabilities, includes:
• Monitor the variable solar-heliospheric photon, particle and magnetic field inputs with
satellites at L1 and L5.
• Monitor the geospace global and regional responses to the varying solar-heliospheric inputs
with Earth-orbiting satellites, one in a high-altitude orbit (GEO, for ionospheric imaging) and one in a
low-altitude orbit (LEO, for detailed regional sensing and radiation belt monitoring).
• Develop, validate, test and transition to operations physical and assimilative models of
coupled solar, heliospheric, and geospace properties for specification and forecasting of the extended
operational environment.
• Integrate relevant research efforts with operational activities to achieve seamless Research to
Operations and Operations to Research (R2O-O2R) and identify emerging needs and advances.
• Leverage the strength of NASA’s community by taking advantage of PI led missions, hosted
payloads, and other innovative approaches such as microsatellites.
• Coordinate with other complementary agency missions such as NSF (supporting model
development and ground based-observations), DOD and NOAA (providing operational forecasts and
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space weather monitoring), DOE (supporting modeling and monitoring) and USGS (supporting ground-
based magnetic observations).
There is one quasi-stable orbit at the L1 Lagrange point, located about one hour upstream of
Earth, used for the ACE and SOHO measurements of solar wind parameters and solar coronagraph
imaging, respectively. The L5 point, located 60º behind the Sun-Earth line, is a gravitationally stable
location which provides global coverage of the inner heliosphere one to five days before transient
disturbances such as CMEs arrive at L1 or geospace; L5 allows viewing of solar activity behind the limb
rotating Earthward; it allows in situ sampling of solar wind structure at a longitude distinct from L1 and
rotating Earthward. An L5 mission would build upon experience using STEREO B coronagraph
measurements for space weather forecasting. A comprehensive and sustained program of measurements
in geospace is also required, including ground-based measurements supported by NSF and the Air Force
as well as space-based measurements from NOAA and DOD, with NASA taking on a new monitoring
role with new resources, coordinating with operational agencies. Finally, new models are needed to
satisfy the demands of increased user diversity.
AN ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO
The committee envisions a national commitment to a new program in solar and space physics that
would provide long term observations of the space weather environment and support the development and
application of geospace models to protect critical societal infrastructure, including communication,
navigation and terrestrial weather spacecraft through accurate forecasting of the space environment.
Because NASA has a long history of conducting collaborative forefront space weather research in concert
with researchers in academia, the commercial sector, and other government laboratories, the committee
envisions an expanded role for NASA in a future Space Weather and Climatology program. NASA could
provide leadership in making the requisite measurements to forecast solar eruptions, to enable accurate
radiation and satellite drag forecasts, to observe and model the ionosphere and scintillations which disrupt
HF communications and ground induced currents which disrupt pipelines and electrical power
transmission lines, as examples. The strengths inherent in the NASA community, combined with the
benefit of synergy between forefront research and space weather operations, should be brought to bear on
U.S. needs.
Our vision encompasses long-term planning for critical measurements, such as L1 solar and solar
wind measurements, currently acquired from ACE and SOHO. The committee endorses DSCOVR as a
temporary interagency solution to the current lack of continuity beyond ACE of L1 plasma and field
measurements essential to current space weather models, while advocating the need to have a plan beyond
DSCOVR for continuous and comprehensive L1 coverage. NASA is uniquely qualified to develop, build,
launch and operate spacecraft in Earth orbit and beyond, including the recommended measurements at L1
and L5 (as a number of white papers described). Operating such spacecraft requires use of the Deep Space
Network, for example.
A set of notional new activities is described below, emphasizing NASA, which can provide a
critical new capability, and which build on continuation of present activities. The latter are described in
Chapter 4 for all participating agencies; the vision described here focuses on steps beyond. Chapter 4 also
recommends re-chartering of the National Space Weather Program at an appropriate level of the federal
government for strategic support and coordination.
A new initiative like SWaC will enable fulfillment of requirements for space weather presented in
the President’s June 2010 U.S. National Space Policy. The following is a description of agency-specific
new activities as elements of this new program. The emphasis is on an expanded role for NASA, building
upon the traditional strengths of the U.S. space agency. Assuming availability of new resources, notional
vision implementation elements are for each agency.
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NSF
The National Science Foundation will be enabled to provide real-time monitoring by means of its
set of ground-based facilities. Ground-based facilities include radars, lidars, magnetometers, and solar
observatories such as the Global Oscillation Network Group, Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations
of the Sun, and the Advanced Technology Solar Telescope. NSF will also be enabled to provide key data
streams from platforms such as Iridium and to support space weather model development.
NOAA and DOD
Both NOAA and the Department of Defense will be enabled to transition models, developed as
part of this vision, into operations, and they will be enabled to utilize any new data streams provided by
an implementation of this vision to enhance operational services.
DOE
The Department of Energy, in cooperation with DOD will be enabled to provide both continuity
of, as well as access to, real-time data streams from space weather sensors on geosynchronous and GPS
satellite platforms.
Commercial Sector
The United States will have a healthy commercial sector enabled to develop tailored space
weather products for specific applications.
An Expanded Role for NASA
Today, NASA missions, such as ACE, SOHO (NASA/ESA), STEREO, and SDO already provide
space weather information without which the forecasting of solar eruptions and their heliospheric
propagation would not be possible. NASA and partner agencies NSF, AFOSR, and ONR, support
researchers to develop the most advanced space environment models. Many of these models can be
applied to space weather forecasting, with a potentially dramatic increase in forecasting capabilities.
NASA already conducts operational activities in a number of areas, from space weather forecasting for its
own human and robotic missions, to human space flight activities, and communications such as those
based on TDRSS. NASA also routinely provides societal-relevant information from models and space-
based measurements, such as from the MODIS Earth-monitoring system for atmosphere, land and ocean.
The NASA Heliophysics Directorate has developed exceptional capabilities for continuous
measurement of critical space environment parameters, but does not have a program that sustains the
observational capabilities needed to meet societal needs. Consequently, it presently does not support long-
term Heliophysics monitoring (with continuously evolving skill) analogous to the monitoring of the
terrestrial environment and surface climate that the Earth Science Mission Directorate has implemented
over the past two decades.
NASA is the appropriate place to ensure the continuity of critical data sources for space weather
forecasts and operations that address pressing national needs. A suitable vehicle may be a new
Heliophysics Space Weather and Climatology Program, with a primary focus on obtaining societally
relevant data and observations. This program could be implemented in concert with academic research
programs, government laboratories and the commercial sector, applying the strength of NASA’s science
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community. Recognizing the importance of modeling to forecasting of terrestrial weather, the program
would also support model development and model applications to space weather forecasting, applying the
latest advances in modeling capabilities and the most advanced data sources to drive models. The new
activity could make its space weather information available to interests in the United States and beyond,
and coordinate its relevant activities with DOD and NOAA operations, as well as the commercial and
international space weather communities.
Implementation Concept
A concept of how to start the Space Weather and Climatology (SWaC) program is discussed in
the following, a list of SWaC Enhanced Space Missions presented in Table 7.1 and an Illustrative
Funding Scenario for NASA and SWaC is presented in Table 7.2. This new program could be started as
soon as fiscal year 2014, responding to a demonstrated national need. Assuming the availability of the
necessary new funding for this activity, the following steps could be taken during the first 5 years:
Year 1
• Initiate development of an operational solar wind and solar monitoring (L1) mission.
• Initiate NASA center activities to provide real-time data streams from missions and models,
to evaluate and test models, and to continue operating space weather-relevant research missions.
• Initiate a grants program to develop and advance to operational readiness space environment
specification and forecasting models.
• Initiate continued coordination with space weather forecasting organizations at DOD, NOAA,
NASA, and the commercial sector for transition of relevant observations and models to operations.
Year 2
• Development and build phase of operational L1 mission.
• Expand NASA center activities to coordinate space weather data acquisition with other
agencies (NOAA, DOD, DOE) into the new Space Weather Clearinghouse providing access to previously
unavailable space weather data.
• Expand grants program to develop and advance to operational readiness space environment
specification and forecasting models.
Year 3
• Build phase of operational L1 mission.
• Begin development of solar and solar wind monitoring mission for L5.
• Evaluate effectiveness of new Space Weather Clearinghouse in meeting multiagency
operational forecast needs.
• Continue grants program to test operational readiness of space environment specification and
forecasting models and coordinate with DOD and NOAA partners.
Year 4
• Build, integrate, and launch operational L1 mission.
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• Continue development of solar monitoring mission for L5.
• NASA center begins to integrate and distribute operational L1 measurements.
• Continue grants program to transition to operations environment specification and forecasting
models for use by NASA and NOAA and DOD operations.
Year 5
• Operate operational L1 mission, initiate concept study of follow-on mission.
• Continue development of solar monitoring mission for L5.
• Initiate geospace monitoring mission concept study.
• NASA center plans for integration of operational L5 and geospace monitoring measurements
into environment specification and forecast.
• Continue grants program to facilitate transition to operational readiness of space environment
specification and forecasting models which will include new data sets as they become available.
A new synergy is also needed that capitalizes on the strength of respective agencies, collecting
key data as well from DOE, DOD, commercial opportunities such as Iridium/AMPERE and ground-based
observatories, such as SuperDARN, the latter two supported by NSF. The committee envisions NASA
assuming a leading role in creating a Clearinghouse for coordinating the acquisition, processing, and
archiving of under-utilized real-time and near real-time ground and space-based data needed for space
weather applications. For example, highly valued energetic particle measurements made by GPS and
LANL GEO satellites for specification of the radiation belts, are not now routinely provided. Likewise,
model development has been supported by individual agencies rather than coordinated.
The survey committee also foresees NASA assuming a leading role in coordinating model
development through a center such as the CCMC, which serves both as a repository for models and
coordinates model development and transition to operations at NOAA, NASA, and DOD. Additional
funding will be required by NOAA and DOD to support the integration of data acquired and models
developed by this new NASA program in order to address the specific needs of the user communities.
Table 7.2 shows an illustrative scenario for new funding that incorporates support for the new
Clearinghouse and modeling effort. Combined with existing and recommended activities, a program
similar to SWaC can put the Nation’s space weather forecasting and space weather and space climate
monitoring on solid footing.
The programs described here would help meet the growing space weather needs of the United
States. However, given scarce resources, the survey committee recommends their implementation only
under circumstances that would not delay the development or the timely execution of the recommended
programs for NASA that are shown in Figure 6.1.
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TABLE 7.1 Space Weather and Climatology Enhanced Space Missions
Spacecraft Key
(Key Regions) Instruments/Observations Utility Heritage/Status
L5 Mission Advanced warning of
• Solar coronagraph • STEREO satellite
solar activity,
• Solar demonstrated
• Solar X-ray, EUV,
background solar wind importance
• Heliosphere and magnetic field
and solar disturbances •
imagers No plans for future
• Solar wind
(e.g., CMEs) aimed at L5 observations
• Solar irradiance
Earth and other locations
• Heliospheric imager
in the solar system.
• Solar wind
parameters
(e.g., B, T, v, n,
composition)
L1 Mission Provides high-accuracy, Solar
• Solar coronagraph
~ 30-45 min advanced
• Solar • NASA/ESA SOHO
• Solar X-ray, EUV,
warning of impending demonstrated value
• Solar wind and magnetic field
geomagnetic storms, • NASA concepts
imagers
validates models, and exist, and NOAA
• Solar irradiance
detects CMEs Compact
• Solar wind
Coronagraph
parameters (e.g., B,
(CCOR) under
T, v, n, composition)
evaluation, but no
funding identified.
Solar Wind
• ACE and WIND
demonstrated value
• ACE data currently
in use
• NOAA/Interagency
DSCOVR satellite
under development
• IMAP recommended
GEO Mission Provides instantaneous
• • No existing
UV, EUV, and
global distribution of
• Geosynchronous ENA Earth measurement
geospace neutral and
orbit, Geospace imaging
electron densities
remote imaging of
(important, e.g., for GPS
ionosphere/
and satellite drag)
thermosphere
LEO Mission Provides high spatial
• •
Electron and neutral TIMED GUVI
resolution and regional
• Low-Earth Orbit density demonstrated value
detail of conditions
Geospace in situ and of remotely sensing
• Temperature
important, e.g., for GPS
remote sensing of temperature and
• Electric and
and satellite drag
ionosphere/ densities.
magnetic fields
thermosphere • Current observations
Winds
from AF/DMSP
• No plans for future
measurements
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TABLE 7.2 Illustrative Funding Scenario for a NASA Space Weather and Climatology Program (in
$millions)a
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
L1 50 100 100 100 25 25 25 25 25 25
L5 0 0 50 50 100 100 100 100 50 25
Earth
0 0 0 0 25 25 25 25 75 100
Orbiting
NASA
25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Centers
Grants
25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Programb
Total 100 150 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
a
Assumes L1 launch in year 4, $500 million over 10 years, start over year 10; assumes L5 launch year 8, $575
million over 9 years, start over year 12; assumes 5-year multi-sat Earth orbit technology development in years 5-9,
launch year 10.
b
Model development, data assimilation.
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Part II
Reports to the Survey Committee from the Discipline Panels
The decadal survey steering committee’s assessment and recommendations for the field of solar
and space physics, Part I of this report, was informed to a great degree by the extensive scientific discus-
sion and technical input of the three science discipline panels. Themes for these panels were chosen to
emphasize interactions between physical domains, with the goal to further the integration of the overall
research across traditional discipline boundaries. Consequently, the panels were formed for Solar and
Heliospheric Physics (SHP), Solar Wind-Magnetospheric Interactions (SWMI), and Atmosphere-
Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Interactions (AIMI). The panels were charged to summarize scientific pro-
gress and to identify the most compelling scientific questions emerging as targets for research within the
next ten years. The panels also were chartered to develop a prioritized approach to addressing those ques-
tions in the most productive manner. Panels were encouraged to investigate and report on the broader
context of their proposed research, for example, how it pertains to societal needs, and to identify techno-
logical needs and means to address the most compelling scientific questions.
Panel deliberations drew on information gathered at town hall meetings; three face-to-face 2.5-
day panel meetings, and weekly teleconferences. Panels also made extensive use of community input via
the white papers that were submitted as part of the survey committee’s RFI (request for information pro-
cess),1 and from briefings from other decadal survey activities, such as the five cross-disciplinary working
groups.2
Panel interactions with the survey committee were numerous. Each panel was assigned a liaison
member who was, at the same time, also a member of the survey committee. Survey committee members
also attended panel meetings to stay informed of emerging developments. Panel chairs and co-chairs par-
ticipated in most survey committee meetings; however, they were not present at survey committee meet-
ings during the final phase of the study. Notably, panel leads were full participants in survey committee
meetings that developed the overarching scientific motivations that are integral to this report’s recom-
mendations:
Motivation 1: To understand our home in the solar system.
Motivation 2: To predict the changing space environment and its societal impact.
Motivation 3: To explore space to reveal universal physical processes.
Panel leads and steering committee members also worked together to develop the requisite key
scientific goals for the decade that would address these overarching themes.
1
The survey’s website, http://sites.nationalacademies.org/SSB/CurrentProjects/SSB_056864, includes links to
the RFI and to the more than 300 submissions that were received in response. The RFI is also reprinted in Appendix
H of this report, and a list of responses is given in Appendix I.
2
The topics for interdisciplinary working groups were Theory, Modeling, and Data Exploitation; Explorers,
Suborbital, and Other Platforms; Innovations: Technology, Instruments, and Data Systems; Research to Opera-
tions/Operations to Research; and Workforce and Education.
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Each of the overarching scientific questions identified by the panels was evaluated against these
goals:
Goal 1. Determine the origins of the Sun’s activity and predict the variations of the space envi-
ronment.
Goal 2. Understand the dynamics and coupling of the Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and
atmosphere and their response to solar and terrestrial inputs.
Goal 3. Determine the interaction of the Sun with the solar system and the interstellar medium.
Goal 4. Discover and characterize fundamental processes that occur both within the heliosphere
and throughout the universe.
With the exception of Goal 3, which is specific to the SHP panel, all panels directly address the
entirety of goals. Panels cast their scientific prioritization in the form of discipline goals and priorities,
from which they derived more detailed scientific “imperatives” and, finally, implementation scenarios or
reference mission concepts. It is important to recognize that panel-specific imperatives are not equivalent
to report recommendations, which can only be offered by the decadal survey steering committee.3
The panel reports were used as the basis for identifying the science challenges in Part I (Chapter 3)
of this report. Each of the panels’ emphases for research in the field was brought forward to the survey
committee for adoption as survey recommendations. In the further course of this work, a set of spacecraft
mission concepts that would achieve particular scientific goals of each individual panel were developed
and evaluated for cost and technical readiness. That evaluation process is described in Part I (Chapter 5)
and in Appendix C.
The work of the discipline panels has been fundamental to the decadal survey and it forms the
foundation of Part I of this report. The panel reports follow.
3
The report of the decadal survey steering committee and its recommendations are found in Part I of this report.
Key recommendations of the survey committee are aggregated in the report Summary.
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Part II-2
