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10
Report of the Panel on Solar and Heliospheric Physics
10.1 PHYSICS OF THE SUN AND HELIOSPHERE
To grasp immediately the nature of the field of solar and heliospheric (SH) physics, one need
only look at the striking image of the 2010 solar eclipse shown in Figure 10.1.
The solar atmosphere extends outward from the Sun’s surface, apparently without end. In fact,
this extended atmosphere—the heliosphere—does end at roughly 140 AU, where the solar wind runs into
the galaxy at the heliopause. Our Earth, its upper atmosphere, and its magnetosphere—and the other
planets of the solar system—are all embedded deep inside this extended stellar atmosphere. Hence, the
vast physical domain stretching from the center of the Sun out to the heliopause defines our home in
space. The heliopause is where our home ends and the rest of the universe begins.
To achieve the vision set forth by this decadal survey, we must understand the physical processes
that create and sustain connections within the heliosphere. Figure 10.1 demonstrates, however, that
gaining such an understanding requires overcoming major fundamental physics challenges. The most
striking feature of the image is the beautifully intricate structure, obviously due to the Sun’s magnetic
field that has its origins deep below the solar surface. Understanding the processes that produce the solar
field is a prerequisite for achieving the goals of the survey, but the recent, unexpected deep solar
minimum demonstrates that our understanding of the Sun’s dynamo is still rudimentary. Consequently,
the Solar and Heliospheric Physics (SHP) Panel has identified as the first of four major SH science goals
for the upcoming decade, SH1, to determine how the Sun generates the quasicyclical variable
magnetic field that extends throughout the heliosphere.
The extended structure of Figure 10.1 shows that the magnetic field provides a coupling across
the SH domain, from the solar interior to the galaxy. In fact, the field not only couples the SH domain, it
is essential for its creation. All current theories for heating the corona and accelerating the wind postulate
the magnetic field as the central agent. Although this is not immediately obvious from Figure 10.1,
because it is only a snapshot, the magnetic coupling of the Sun and heliosphere is always dynamic. The
field at the solar surface and low corona is observed to vary dramatically on temporal scales ranging from
seconds to decades. In situ measurements of the heliosphere indicate that that variability creates a broad
range of temporal scales, from subseconds for discontinuities produced by explosive events to decades for
the solar cycle evolution. Furthermore, the heliosphere is inherently turbulent, so it produces internal
dynamics down to kinetic dissipation scales. All those heliospheric dynamics couple directly to Earth’s
magnetosphere and upper atmosphere, again by the magnetic field, producing the myriad forms of space
weather that we must understand and mitigate against. The SHP Panel therefore has identified as its
second major goal for the coming decade, SH2, to determine how the Sun’s magnetism creates its
dynamic atmosphere.
In addition to its ceaseless dynamics, a defining feature of our home in space is that it is filled
with high-energy radiation, both electromagnetic—ultraviolet (UV), x rays, and gamma rays—and
particulate. High-energy particle radiation, especially protons, is the greatest threat to human exploration
of the solar system and to our deep-space missions. The most dangerous bursts of energetic particles are
due to the giant explosions of the solar magnetic field and matter known as coronal mass
ejections/eruptive flares. Those events also produce the most destructive space weather at Earth, with
damaging consequences ranging from communication and GPS blackouts to the loss of high-orbiting
satellites and power transformers on the ground. In recent years, we have made substantial progress in
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understanding the Sun’s magnetic explosions. We know where on the Sun they are likely to occur; but we
are far from understanding when and how large the explosions will be and, in particular, how so much of
their energy produces particle radiation. It should be emphasized that the processes of magnetic energy
storage and release are commonly observed in all laboratory and cosmic plasmas; therefore,
understanding them in the Sun and heliosphere will be a fundamental advance for all physics. Thus, the
SHP Panel’s third major SH goal, SH3, is to determine how magnetic energy is stored and explosively
released.
As stated above, the heliopause is where the Sun’s extended atmosphere ends and the galactic
medium begins. That interface where two regions collide is generally rich in unexplored and unique
physics. For example, the dominant energy form in the region is due not to the solar-wind plasma or
magnetic field but to interstellar neutrals that stream freely into the heliosphere and charge exchange with
the solar-wind ions. The magnetic structure of the region is also unique in that the field is wound into
such a tight spiral due to solar rotation that it is almost cylindrical rather than radial. Note further that the
structure of the outer heliosphere has important effects close to home: it determines the penetration of
high-energy galactic cosmic rays into near-Earth space. We are now making enormous advances in
understanding the region with direct sampling by the Voyager spacecraft and new methods for global
imaging of the outer boundary of the heliosphere. Our understanding of the heliosphere has been
revolutionized during the last decade. During the next decade, we expect that the Voyager spacecraft will
pass the heliopause and enter interstellar space. For the first time, we will leave our home in space and
enter the universe—a truly historic event. The coming decade will be critical for gaining an understanding
not only of how our space environment is created and driven but of how it ends. That is the SH4 Panel’s
final major SH goal for the decade, SH4, to discover how the Sun interacts with the local galactic
medium and protects Earth.
FIGURE 10.1 White-light image of the solar corona out to 4 solar radii during the solar eclipse of
November 7, 2010. SOURCE: Courtesy of M. Druckmüller, Brno University of Technology, M. Dietzel,
Graz University of Technology, S. Habbal, Institute for Astronomy, and V. Rušin, Slovak Academy of
Sciences.
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Solar and Heliospheric Physics Actions
Associated with each of the panel’s four goals are several SH actions that, if carried out, promise
substantial progress in achieving the goals. Box 10.1 summarizes the four SHP panel goals and 14
associated actions.
BEGIN BOX************************************************************************
BOX 10.1
Solar and Heliospheric Physics Goals
1. Determine how the Sun generates the quasicyclical variable magnetic field that extends
throughout the heliosphere.
a. Measure and model the near-surface polar mass flows and magnetic fields that seed variations
in the solar cycle.
b. Measure and model the deep mass flows in the convection zone and tachocline that are
believed to drive the solar dynamo.
c. Determine the role of small-scale magnetic fields in driving global-scale irradiance variability
and activity in the solar atmosphere.
2. Determine how the Sun’s magnetism creates its dynamic atmosphere.
a. Determine whether chromospheric dynamics is the origin of heat and mass fluxes into the
corona and solar wind.
b. Determine how magnetic free energy is transmitted from the photosphere to the corona.
c. Discover how the thermal structure of the closed-field corona is determined.
d. Discover the origin of the solar wind’s dynamics and structure.
3. Determine how magnetic energy is stored and explosively released.
a. Determine how the sudden release of magnetic energy enables both flares and coronal mass
ejections to accelerate particles to high energies efficiently.
b. Identify the locations and mechanisms that operate in impulsive solar energetic-particle sites,
and determine whether particle acceleration plays a role in coronal heating.
c. Determine the origin and variability of suprathermal electrons, protons, and heavy ions on time
scales of minutes to hours.
d. Develop advanced methods of forecasting solar eruptive events.
4. Discover how the Sun interacts with the local galactic medium and protects Earth.
a. Determine the spatial–temporal evolution of heliospheric boundary interactions.
b. Discover where and how anomalous cosmic rays are accelerated.
c. Explore the properties of the heliopause and surrounding interstellar medium.
END BOX***********************************************************************
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10.2 SOLAR AND HELIOSPHERIC IMPERATIVES
To achieve the four major goals above, the SHP Panel has developed a strategy that consists of a
set of imperatives for the federal agencies involved in SH research. The imperatives, actions that are
essential for future progress, are listed briefly below according to the relevant agency (or agencies) and
discussed in detail later in this chapter.
10.2.1 Priorities for Imperatives for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
1. Complete the development and launch of the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph IIRIS)
and Solar Probe Plus missions, and deliver U.S. contributions to the European Space Agency–National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (ESA–NASA) Solar Orbiter mission. The measurements from
those missions are central to our strategy for addressing SH science goals 1, 2, and 3 in the next decade
(§10.5.3.1).
2. Augment the Heliophysics Explorer budget to expand launch opportunities and add new cost-
effective middle-size launch vehicles (§10.5.3.2).
3. Substantially enhance the following key elements of the NASA Heliophysics research and
analysis programs so that the science community can use the new measurements to attain the science
goals above (§10.5.3.4):
• Create new Heliophysics Science Centers composed of teams of theorists, numerical
modelers, and data experts to tackle major science problems.
• Implement a graduated increase in individual principal investigator grant programs to
20% of Heliophysics Division funding, primarily by increasing the size of individual grants.
• Augment the mission operations and data analysis program to facilitate systems science
using the Heliophysics Systems Observatory.
• Ensure that all newly confirmed missions have Phase E budgets adequate to ensure
mission success and that they sponsor a guest-investigator program as part of their success
criteria.
• Form a consolidated Heliophysics Instrument Development Program for innovative
instrument concepts.
• Provide flight and training opportunities through increased funding of the Low Cost
Access to Space program for science-payload development and data analysis.
4. To attack SH science goals 3 and 4, develop the Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe
(IMAP), a mission to observe the interaction of the heliosphere with the interstellar medium and measure
suprathermal ion populations with unprecedented resolution (§10.5.2.2). IMAP is our highest-priority
middle-size mission.
5. To attack SH science goals 2 and 3, support U.S. participation in the Japanese-led Solar-C
mission that will measure the magnetic coupling of the lower atmosphere into the corona (§10.5.2.3).
6. To maximize the science returns on limited resources, extend the Explorer mission
development model to middle-size strategic missions (§10.5.3.3).
7. To attack SH science goal 3, develop the solar eruptive events (SEE) mission to image
electron and ion acceleration in SEEs with unprecedented resolution. This is our highest-priority mission
concept for an LWS-class strategic mission (§10.5.2.4)
8. Carry out advanced planning for the Solar Polar Imager and Interstellar Probe missions
(§10.5.2.6, §10.5.2.7).
9. To develop solar-sail propulsion for future Heliophysics Division missions, invest about $50
million “seed money” in a full-scale Solar Sail Demonstration mission by partnering with the Office of
the Chief Technologist Technology Demonstration Missions program (§10.5.2.8).
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10.2.2 Priorities for Imperatives for the National Science Foundation
1. Provide base funding sufficient for efficient and scientifically productive operation of the
Advanced Solar Technology Telescope, which is also central for achieving our SH science goals
(§10.5.4.1).
2. Establish a middle-scale projects funding program similar to NASA’s Explorer Model
(§10.5.4.2).
3. Fund the development and operation of the Frequency Agile Solar Radiotelescope (FASR) to
produce three-dimensional images of the solar atmosphere with high temporal and spatial resolution
(§10.5.4.3).
4. Fund the development and operation of the Coronal Solar Magnetism Observatory
(COSMO), a large-aperture coronagraph, chromosphere, and prominence magnetometer (§10.5.4.4).
5. Double the size of the National Science Foundation (NSF) small-grants programs to support
the effort required for analyzing and modeling the new datasets (§10.5.4.5).
6. Broaden the definition of NSF’s Solar-Terrestrial Research Program to include outer-
heliosphere research (§10.5.4.6).
10.2.3 Priories for Multiagency Imperatives
1. Ensure continued support of current ground-based observations of the Sun, especially the
line-of-sight and vector measurements of the solar magnetic field that are being used routinely for space-
weather operations (§10.5.5.1).
2. Ensure continued support of laboratory facilities for accurate measurement of atomic
properties and for instrument calibrations (§10.5.5.2).
3. Develop real-time and near-real-time instrumentation and data streams from future missions
and ground-based facilities. In collaboration with other agencies, fly missions devoted to space-weather
objectives. Establish an interagency clearinghouse and archive for space-weather data (§10.5.5.3)
4. Ensure continuity of real-time solar-wind measurements from L1 (§10.5.5.4).
5. Identify key long-term solar and heliospheric datasets and recommend approaches to ensure
that they are continued and archived (§10.5.5.5).
6. Continue support of laboratory plasma physics at current or higher levels to complement
spacecraft measurements in understanding basic heliophysical processes (§10.5.5.6).
7. NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Department
of Defense are encouraged to develop a plan for a mission at the L5 Lagrangian point to conduct high-
priority helioseismology studies and develop advanced capabilities to forecast space weather (§10.5.5.7).
10.3 IMPORTANT ACCOMPLISHMENTS DURING THE PREVIOUS DECADE
During the 10 years since the previous decadal survey (The Sun to the Earth—and Beyond) was
published, there has been much progress in all fields of solar and heliospheric physics, including many
surprising discoveries. In the following four subsections, organized by the four SH goals in Section 10.1,
we describe a small sampling of recent developments. Accomplishments or goals that address the three
guiding motivations (M1-M3) described in the introduction to Part II are noted.
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FIGURE 10.2 Average value of the magnetic flux density at the Sun’s polar regions during the last
four cycles. The polar flux density peaks at the times of maximum. The recent cycle minimum had the
weakest polar flux ever recorded. SOURCE: Courtesy of Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University. Red, data
from Wilcox Solar Observatory; blue, data from Mt. Wilson Observatory scaled to match.
FIGURE 10.3 Left, numerical simulation of a sunspot; right, an actual photograph. Detailed
comparisons of observations and models like these have elucidated the physics of such solar features.
Left: Left half courtesy of M. Rempel, High Altitude Observatory; right half courtesy of F. Woeger,
National Solar Observatory; from M. Rempel, “Numerical Simulations of Sunspots: From the Scale of
Fine Structure to the Scale of Active Regions,” paper presented at the 42nd meeting of the American
Astronomical Society Solar Physics Division, Las Cruces, N.M., 2011. Right: Courtesy of Big Bear
Solar Observatory.
10.3.1 Determine How the Sun Generates the Quasicyclical Variable Magnetic Field that Extends
Throughout the Heliosphere
As emphasized in the last decadal survey (Panel reports Ch. 1, p. 12), an enduring major
scientific goal is to determine how the Sun generates its quasicyclical variable magnetic field. The
practical goal of such research is to learn enough to be able to help to predict the changing space
environment and its societal impact (Motivation M2). Here we sketch four of the many notable
accomplishments of the last decade toward meeting these goals.
With a wide array of ground-based and space-based sensors, solar activity in its many forms was
observed to fall in 2008-2009 to low levels not seen for nearly a century. Solar activity is driven by the
solar magnetic field, and the recent decline in the polar magnetic field flux is shown in Figure 10.2. The
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sharp decline was not generally expected. However, researchers noted that ground and Solar and
Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) space-based measurements before the activity minimum showed
unusually small amounts of magnetic flux near the poles of the Sun. Considered by some to be a useful
precursor of the strength of an activity cycle, the low flux levels led to predictions that the current solar
cycle maximum will be the lowest since polar flux measurements have been available—as appears to be
the case. Other venerable solar activity precursors that suggested a high level of activity proved to be
spectacularly unreliable. Vital observational work in this research is continuing with ground-based and
space-based assets, particularly because there is a chance that the Sun is entering a sustained period of
low activity.
The effects of record low solar activity were observed throughout the heliosphere. Among the
prominent effects with societal consequences were these: cosmic ray fluxes near Earth reached the highest
levels on record, and reduced heating of Earth’s upper atmosphere by solar UV radiation led to less drag
on satellites.
Those surprising events and the rapid development of flux-transport dynamo models have led to
intense recent work in solar dynamo modeling. Two key issues that involve the transport of magnetic flux
have emerged: the speed with which meridional flows move poloidal magnetic flux to the solar poles and
the extent to which this moving flux stays near the surface or diffuses inward on its journey to the poles.
Because of the importance of those issues, there is a critical need for measurements of meridional flow
and its variability. The measurements are difficult, and a consensus has not yet emerged.
Observational spatial resolution has greatly improved through image-processing techniques
applied to ground-based observations made with the 1.6-m New Solar Telescope (NST) at the Big Bear
Solar Observatory and other 1-m class apertures and direct observations made with the 0.5-m Hinode
satellite. But it is the combination of these state-of-the-art observations with advanced numerical
modeling that has, after 400 years of speculation, revealed the main physical processes at work in sunspot
penumbral filaments, bright umbral dots, bright faculae, and small-scale magnetic elements. Figure 10.3
shows a numerical simulation of a sunspot and an actual photograph. Good observational and modeling
progress has also been made with respect to the more complicated upper layers of the solar atmosphere.
Continuing and improved space measurements (SOHO, then SDO) and ground-based (GONG)
helioseismic measurements of the solar interior have shown cycle-related changes in large-scale internal
zonal and meridional flows. The varying flows may play a driving role rather than just being
consequences of the solar activity cycle, and they narrow the wide range of realistic solar dynamo models.
Helioseismic observations of active regions have shown subsurface helical flows whose strength
is closely related to flare activity. In addition, a new analytic method shows surprisingly deep-seated
effects of large active regions well before they emerge at the surface (see Figure 10.4). Either or both of
those findings may develop into useful forecasts of strong solar activity with societal significance.
The Sun sustains life on Earth by its nearly steady output of light. Measurements of total solar
irradiance (TSI) with different space-based instruments have consistently shown a cycle variation of order
0.1% but give conflicting results about the absolute value of the TSI. The conflicts have recently been
resolved in favor of a lower value that improves agreement with climate research results. The original
conflicting results and new results are shown in the two panels of Figure 10.5. The new results indicate
that the TSI at the recent cycle minimum was less than at previous minima. It has also been suggested that
this level is about as low as can be expected even if a long cessation of solar activity occurs (as during the
Maunder Minimum).
10.3.2 Determine How the Sun’s Magnetism Creates Its Dynamic Atmosphere
Major advances have been made during the last decade in understanding the dynamic and coupled
nature of the Sun’s extended atmosphere that reaches from the chromosphere and corona to the end of the
heliosphere (motivations M1-M3). The advances highlight the need for direct sampling of the solar wind
in the deep inner heliosphere as close to the Sun as possible, with high-resolution measurements of
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plasma and electromagnetic fluctuations; high spatial- and temporal-resolution observations of the solar
atmosphere from the photosphere into the corona; accurate magnetic field measurements in the low-beta
chromosphere and corona; and advanced theoretical models that can couple closely to the upcoming
observations.
In situ measurements of the solar-wind plasma velocity distribution functions and
electromagnetic fluctuations permit us to identify the dominant kinetic physics responsible for the
generation and dissipation of Alfvénic fluctuations and other types of solar-wind turbulence (motivations
M1 and M3). Progress has been made in measuring and understanding the types of turbulent fluctuations
in the solar wind and the likely dissipation mechanisms, but important questions remain. Observations
from spacecraft—such as Cluster, Wind, and ACE—and archival data from Helios have been used to
probe the power in fluctuations perpendicular and parallel to the local magnetic field as a function of
scale and have demonstrated that these fluctuations are highly anisotropic. Higher time-resolution
measurements have allowed us to trace the evolution of the turbulent cascade and dissipation past ion
kinetic scales toward electron scales. More work is needed to determine the relative fraction of
fluctuations dissipated by ions and electrons and to distinguish between different mechanisms for
dissipation, such as ion-cyclotron resonance, kinetic Alfvén waves, or the formation of small-scale current
sheets. It is also unclear where broadband Alfvénic fluctuations and other types of solar-wind turbulence,
such as 1/f noise, originate, either in the corona or during propagation in the inner heliosphere. Further
theoretical work and joint analysis of solar-wind plasma and electromagnetic fields will allow us to
determine whether nonlinear plasma physics can explain the highly nonadiabatic expansion of the solar
wind.
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FIGURE 10.4 Upper panel shows the surface magnetic field (grey) with a travel-time perturbation
map constructed at a depth of 42–75 Mm (blue) about a day before an active region appeared at the
surface as seen in the lower panel. SOURCE: Adapted from S. Ilonidis, J. Zhao, and A. Kosovichev.
Detection of emerging sunspot regions in the solar interior, Science 333:993-996, 2011. Reprinted
with permission from AAAS.
Major progress has been made in understanding the development of kinetic instabilities in the
solar wind due to nonthermal ion and electron distribution functions, in particular how temperature
anisotropies are limited by the mirror, firehose, and cyclotron instabilities (motivations M1 and M3). A
surprising result is that the mirror instability appears to play a stronger role than the cyclotron instability
in limiting temperature anisotropy. Instabilities have also been proposed to explain the observed
restriction of differential ion flow to the local Alfvén speed, but observational confirmation of these
theories has remained elusive.
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FIGURE 10.5 Recent improvements in the accuracy and precision of measurements of total solar
irradiance have resolved several basic issues. The upper panel shows the original discordant
measurements before recalibration. SOURCE: G. Kopp and J. Lean, Improved calibration facility
capabilities have resolved several basic issues affecting the absolute accuracy of these fundamental
total solar irradiance measurements. The upper panel shows the original discordant measurements
before applying recent corrections, Geophysical Research Letters 38:L01706,
doi:10.1029/2010GL04577, 2011. Copyright 2011 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced by
permission of American Geophysical Union.
FIGURE 10.6 Sunspot number (top) and three solar-wind components (bottom) during 1998–2008:
interplanetary coronal mass ejections (yellow), coronal hole wind (green), and noncoronal hole
wind (orange). SOURCE: Zhao, L., Zurbuchen, T.H., and Fisk, L.A., Global distribution of the
solar wind during solar cycle 23: ACE observations, Geophysical Research Letters 36:L14104,
doi:10.1029/2009GL039181, 2009. Copyright 2009 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced by
permission of American Geophysical Union.
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In situ measurements of the solar wind are also a powerful diagnostic of the evolving connection
between the corona and interplanetary space, and measurements in the last decade have revealed new
features in the solar wind and related them to the structure and dynamics of the inner heliosphere and
evolving Sun. The anomalously low levels of solar activity in the recent solar minimum were associated
with substantial decreases in the density and pressure of the solar wind. Charge state and composition
allow us to track changes in the coronal sources of the solar wind independently of changes in the solar-
wind speed due to the evolution of the plasma as it expands into interplanetary space. We now know that
the three distinct forms of wind—fast, slow, and transient (associated with ICMEs)—can be clearly
identified by their ionic charge-state signatures (using O7+/O6+) without assumptions about the dynamic
evolution of the wind. The compositions of the three winds provide vital clues to their sources in the Sun
and the mechanisms of their formation. Figure 10.6 shows the fractions of the three solar-wind
components for the decade 1998-2008. That is especially important for understanding the slow wind
because its source and origin have constituted one of the outstanding problems in SH physics. With new
insights into the slow wind’s origin and with the upcoming Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter missions,
we are poised to solve this problem definitively in the coming decade.
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A (2-21 GHz): about 100
B (0.3-2.5 GHz): about 70
Number antennas deployed
C (50-350 MHz): about 50
A (2-21 GHz): 2 m
B (0.3-2.5 GHz): 6 m
Size antennas
C (50-350 MHz): LPDA
Array size 4.25 km EW x 3.75 km NS
Absolute positions 1 arcsec
Absolute flux calibration <10%
10.5.4.4 The Coronal Solar Magnetism Observatory
Imperative: The SHP Panel gives high priority to NSF’s support of construction and operation of
the COSMO50 large-aperture coronagraph and chromosphere and prominence magnetometer to
complement the ATST and FASR.
Justification: Until explosively released, most of the mass and energy that produce space weather
events is stored in the coronal magnetic field. Coronal faintness is an observational challenge especially
for sensitive magnetic and velocity measurements. Responding to a next-step suggestion of the previous
decadal survey, COSMO is proposed as a suite of three instruments: A ground-based, 1.5-m-aperture
solar coronagraph supported by a 12-cm-aperture white-light K-coronagraph (under construction) and a
20-cm-aperture chromosphere and prominence magnetometer. COSMO will be a facility for use by the
solar-physics research community. The facility will take continuous daytime synoptic measurements of
magnetic fields in the solar corona and chromosphere to support understanding of solar eruptive events
that drive space weather and investigation of long-term coronal phenomena. The large emission-line
coronagraph will be the largest refracting telescope in the world.
COSMO complements other facilities and missions by providing 300-days/year limb observations
of the coronal magnetic field down to 1 Gauss over a 1° field of view. Long-term synoptic observations
will directly address how the coronal magnetic field responds to the sunspot cycle and how the switch in
polarity of the global field manifests itself in the heliosphere.
On a shorter timescale, COSMO will provide new information on the evolution of and
interactions between magnetically closed and open regions that determine the changing structure of the
heliospheric magnetic field and provide verification of extrapolations of the photospheric field.
COSMO will detect polarization signatures of nonpotential fields to afford insight into the roles
of energy storage, magnetic reconnection, helicity creation and transport, and flux emergence in CME
formation. It will also provide white-light images of CMEs in the low corona needed to determine basic
properties of CMEs in early stages of formation. Particles accelerated by CME-driven shocks have the
highest particle energies and pose the greatest space-weather hazards. COSMO can detect compressions
and distortions in the field that are due to the formation and passage of a CME and associated waves.
Density compressions resulting from shock formation can produce intensity enhancements in white-light
coronal images. COSMO has the potential to detect shock and CME locations simultaneously.
COSMO will provide routine observations of prominence, filament, and chromospheric magnetic
fields and prominence flows. Those observations will constrain prominence densities and determine how
prominence and coronal magnetic fields interact, how and where magnetic energy is stored (for example,
by flux and helicity transport), and how it is released (for example, by instabilities, reconnection, or
dissipative heating). COSMO will provide the first routine high-time-cadence measurements of coronal
magnetic fields in and around flares and associated CMEs as seen above the solar limb. The high-time-
cadence observations can help to determine when, where, and how magnetic energy is released by CMEs
and by dissipative processes that result in flares.
NRC PRIVILEGED DOCUMENT⎯DO NOT QUOTE, CITE, OR DISSEMINATE
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10.5.4.5 The National Science Foundation Small-Grants Program
Imperative: To support the community effort required to analyze, interpret, and model the vast
new solar and space physics datasets of the next decade, the SHP Panel assigns high priority to NSF’s
adopting the policy of doubling the size of its small-grants programs.
Justification: The coming decade should see major advances in solar and space physics with new
ground-based and space-based instrumentation coming on line, new computational technology becoming
available, and new personnel in the nation’s universities and other institutions. Funding will be needed to
achieve the science promise of the new capabilities and researchers. Core support for new researchers,
especially in universities, comes from NSF small-grants programs, which include the CEDAR, GEM,
SHINE, and base grants programs and associated postdoctoral and young-faculty programs. The NSF
small-grants program is inadequate to cover the science requirements of existing facilities and personnel.
Whether measured by publications, data analyzed, or students educated, increased investment in the
small-grants program is by far the most effective strategy for NSF to use to achieve its science and
education goals.
10.5.4.6 Broadening the Definition of the National Science Foundation’s Solar-Terrestrial Research
Program to Include Outer-Heliosphere Research
Imperative: New scientific discoveries about the outer heliosphere may have important effects on
the history and future of our planet, and this justifies broadening the scope of NSF’s Solar-Terrestrial
Research Program.51
Justification: NSF’s solar-terrestrial research program is in the Geospace Section of the
Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Division. To be funded, proposals to the program must demonstrate
direct relevance to solar-terrestrial science or be transformational in our understanding of the outer solar
system. Even high-quality proposals in outer-heliospheric research may not be funded if they are not
perceived to be directly relevant to changing terrestrial conditions. Outer-heliosphere research is not
funded in other NSF programs and is “falling between the cracks” in NSF. Recent discoveries suggest
that solar interactions with the local interstellar medium may play a much larger role in influencing
terrestrial conditions than previously thought. In addition, this exciting and rapidly emerging field is
providing new insights into processes occurring in the Sun, solar wind, planetary magnetospheres and
atmospheres, and the galaxy. All that suggests that the definition of solar-terrestrial research in NSF
should be broadened to include solar-wind interactions with the local interstellar medium.
10.5.5 Multiagency Imperatives
10.5.5.1 Ground-based Solar Observations
Imperative: The SHP Panel gives high priority to NSF’s and other agencies’ support (where it is
appropriate to their missions) of continuation of ground-based observations of the Sun.52
Justification: The Sun’s scientific and societal importance stimulates a broad array of research
approaches. Much of our current understanding of the Sun originates in observations made on the ground.
Continuing ground-based observations serve crucial roles in studies of long-term variations of the Sun, in
attaining the highest spatial resolution of solar features, in measuring wavelengths from the infrared to
radio, in exploring new ideas, in testing numerical models, in developing new instruments, and in
verifying space-based results. National and university-based solar observatories are supported mainly by
NSF, and support from mission-oriented agencies is sometimes available when specific mission
objectives align with ground-based capabilities. In spite of an outstanding record of scientific
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accomplishments, support of ground-based observations and research based on them has eroded. The SHP
Panel believes that agencies, especially NSF, should work to reverse that trend.
10.5.5.2 Laboratory Astrophysics and Calibration Facilities
Imperative: NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and NSF
are encouraged to continue their support of laboratory facilities for accurate measurement of atomic
properties and for instrument calibrations as needed for several research programs and missions.53
Justification: Understanding the Sun and heliosphere requires observing them remotely.
Diagnosing these observations requires both theoretical knowledge of radiation across the
electromagnetic spectrum and well-calibrated instrumentation. Heliophysics research relies heavily on
measurements of atomic and molecular collision physics, especially for highly charged ions that dominate
x-ray and EUV production. Proper interpretation of observations requires cross sections for calculating
excitation, direct and dielectronic recombination, single-charge and multiple-charge exchange, lifetimes,
and other values. And calibration facilities (for example, at the National Institute of Standards and
Technology) are required for accurate calibration and characterization of NASA and NOAA
instrumentation before flight. Without such facilities, the scientific return from missions and ground-
based remote-sensing observations can be substantially limited. The SHP Panel assigns high priority to
continued support of these facilities by NASA, NOAA, and NSF, preferably through budget line items for
laboratory facilities.
10.5.5.3 Enhanced Space-Weather Monitoring and Modeling
Imperative: To optimize space-weather capabilities, the SHP Panel recommends that all future
SH space missions and ground-based facilities consider including capabilities for delivering space-
weather data products. It would be a benefit for NASA to develop multiagency missions whose primary
purpose is space-weather monitoring. An interagency clearinghouse and archive of space-weather data
would benefit forecasters, researchers, and model-builders.
Justification: During the last decade, the direct application of SH physics to protection of life and
our high-technology society has demonstrated that the nation’s investment in the field is returning
tangible benefits. The SHP Panel recognizes the great benefit that would be realized if studies of new
NASA missions considered adding space-weather measurements and real-time data-transmitting
capabilities where appropriate. Examples of possible missions include IMAP, SEE, and L5. The technical
and financial effects of adding space-weather instrumentation could be addressed by partnering with other
NASA directorates or other agencies. Furthermore, the SHP Panel recognizes a benefit in NASA
consideration of partnering with other agencies to fly missions whose primary purpose is space-weather
operations but that also have science objectives, such as an L5 mission (§10.5.2.5).
Currently, ground-based neutron monitors and solar optical telescopes and radiotelescopes
provide unique real-time data. In the future, an expansion of SOLIS to a three-site network and
completion of FASR and COSMO would provide key data. The panel encourages ground-based facilities
to assess data products that could improve space-weather capabilities. Finally, to expand the availability
of space-weather data to forecasters, researchers, and model-builders, we encourage development of an
interagency clearinghouse for real-time and near-real-time data and an active national archive of current
and past space-weather data.
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10.5.5.4 Continuity of Real-Time Solar-Wind Data from L1
Imperative: Maintaining the continuity of real-time solar-wind data from L1 is essential for the
preservation and improvement of current space-weather forecasting capabilities.
Justification: Observations of the solar wind and the Sun from 1 million miles upstream from
Earth (orbiting the L1 Lagrangian point) have proved to be extremely valuable. The ACE mission has
returned solar-wind observations in real time since 1998, and the NOAA Space Weather Prediction
Center uses them to drive five of its 11 space-weather watches and warnings with up to 60-min lead time.
The real-time data are also downloaded about 1 million times a month by about 25,000 unique customers,
including deep-sea drilling, surveying, mining, and airline companies. NOAA, NASA, and the U.S. Air
Force are refurbishing the DSCOVR spacecraft to provide operational real-time data to partially replace
the aging ACE spacecraft. IMAP will be able to replace and expand on the suite of real-time space-
weather data provided by ACE and DSCOVR.
10.5.5.5 Preserving Key Solar-Heliospheric Datasets
Imperative: Agencies that engage in solar-heliospheric research or use solar and heliospheric data
products (such as NASA, NOAA, NSF, and DOD) are encouraged to initiate an internal or external study
that would identify key long-term data records and recommend approaches to ensure that they are
continued and archived.54
Justification: A number of long-term solar and heliospheric datasets are essential for tracking the
evolution of the solar-heliosphere system on timescales ranging from minutes to millennia. Examples
include neutron-monitor records of cosmic-ray variations, TSI measurements, and solar-wind properties
upstream of Earth. Some of the datasets are often in danger of being discontinued because of lack of
funding or changes in agency priorities.
10.5.5.6 Laboratory Plasma Physics
Imperative: NASA and NSF are encouraged to continue supporting laboratory plasma-physics
research at current or higher levels because it complements ground-based and space measurements in
efforts to understand basic heliophysical processes.55
Justification: Facilities that approximate solar and space plasma environments in the laboratory
have long been part of the scientific investigation of space. Next-generation experiments have been
emerging to provide experimental capabilities to study detailed processes directly relevant to space and
solar plasmas. Some fundamental plasma processes are difficult, if not impossible, to measure and
confirm with spacecraft but are potentially in reach through laboratory experiments. Examples include
studies of magnetic reconnection and associated particle acceleration, solar coronal loops, and large-scale
dynamo experiments at the Madison Dynamo Experiment facility. Moderate funding for laboratory
heliophysics in support of space-plasma and solar research, preferably through budget line items for
laboratory facilities, would be beneficial.
10.5.5.7 Interagency Planning for a Future L5 mission
Imperative: The SHP Panel assigns high priority to the development by NASA, NOAA, and
DOD of plans for a mission at the L5 Lagrangian point to conduct helioseismology studies and develop
advanced capabilities to forecast space weather.
Justification: From L5, it is possible to forecast the arrival of Earth-directed CMEs with high
precision, to observe emerging or developed active regions and corotating interaction regions about 4
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days earlier than from Earth, and to measure photospheric magnetic fields over about 60° additional
longitude, improving magnetic-field models of regions rotating toward Earth.31,32 In addition,
stereohelioseismology studies combining L1 and near-Earth observations have the potential for even
longer solar-activity forecasts (§10.3.1 and §10.5.2.5).
We encourage NASA, NOAA, and DOD to study means of achieving an L5 orbit for minimum
cost and to define the spacecraft, instrument, and mission requirements needed to optimize the scientific
and operational opportunities from a future L5 mission.
10.6 Connections to Other Disciplines
This panel has interests that are connected to those of the Panel on Atmosphere-Ionosphere-
Magnetosphere (AIMI) and the Panel on Solar-Wind-Magnetosphere Interactions (SWMI). Solar photon
radiation and energetic particle outputs are primary energy inputs into and thus drivers of dynamic
processes in Earth’s atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere and those of other planets. The Sun
varies on timescales of minutes (flares, CMEs, and SEPs), days (27-day solar rotation), years (11-year
solar-activity cycle), and even longer. There are corresponding responses throughout the heliosphere,
including Earth and other planets. Successful space-weather modeling and forecasting of magnetospheric
and ionospheric events include continuous tracing through interplanetary space and monitoring of
conditions upstream of Earth. Consequently, most SHP Panel initiatives also support AIMI and SWMI
goals. Robust observational and modeling programs of solar outputs and interactive collaborations among
the SHP, AIMI, and SWMI communities are critically important for current and future heliophysics
research and space-weather operations.
10.6.1 Connections to Earth Science and Climate Change
Solar-irradiance variations in the near-ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared have direct forcing on
Earth’s climate change because of energy deposition in the lower atmosphere and at the surface and
oceans. The solar-energy input and other indirect forcings, such as top-down coupling of solar ultraviolet
heating and photochemistry in the stratosphere, and the possible influence of galactic cosmic rays affect
both global climate changes and regional changes that are due to subtle changes in the atmosphere, ocean
circulation patterns, and cloud cover. Solar-irradiance observations and reconstruction and modeling of
long-term variations, such as improved solar-dynamo models, are important support for the Earth-science
goal of understanding natural influences on climate change. We encourage enhanced collaboration among
the solar, heliosphere, Earth-science, and climate-change communities, in particular between the NASA
Heliophysics LWS TR&T and NASA Earth Science radiation and stratosphere programs.
10.6.2 Connections to Astrophysics
Understanding the Sun as a star, understanding how solar structure and dynamics are related to
those of other stars, and understanding relations between the heliosphere and astrospheres are examples of
how solar, stellar, galactic and heliospheric physics research benefit each other. Basic plasma processes
that include particle acceleration, reconnection, and turbulence in the heliosphere also occur in other
astrophysical environments. Studies of stellar evolution, through asteroseismology and other means, and
improved understanding of the range of variability of Sun-like stars also benefit Sun-climate studies of
long-term solar variations, such as the Maunder Minimum.56 It is highly desirable to continue and
improve collaborations between heliophysics and astrophysics programs in NSF.
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10.6.3 Comparative Planetology and Astrospheres
The magnetosphere represents a boundary in space plasmas created through the interaction of
Earth’s magnetic field and solar wind. Comparable boundaries exist around planets, their moons,
asteroids, comets, the heliosphere, and astrospheres. Detailed study of plasma boundaries mutually
benefits understanding of boundaries surrounding Earth, planets (including exoplanets), moons, comets,
the heliosphere, and astrospheres surrounding other stars. It is highly desirable to continue and improve
collaborations among heliophysics, planetary science, and astrophysics programs to elevate and
generalize our understanding of planetary and astrophysical boundaries in space.
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Appendixes
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