4

Recommendations

In previous chapters the survey committee describes challenges and opportunities for the field of solar and space physics and outlines goals for the upcoming decade and beyond. This chapter presents recommendations for accomplishing these goals, addressing both research and applications. Summarized in Tables 4.1 and 4.2, the recommendations are prioritized (and numbered as in the Summary) and, where appropriate, directed to a particular agency to form programs that satisfy fiscal and other constraints. Additional recommendations are offered throughout the chapter. The implementation and budget implications of the research recommendations are described for NSF in Chapter 5 and for NASA in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 expands further on the applications recommendations by presenting the survey committee’s vision for a new national program in space weather and space climatology.

TABLE 4.1 Summary of Top-Level Decadal Survey Research Recommendations

 

Priority Recommendation NASA NSF Other

 

0.0 Complete the current program X X  
1.0 Implement the DRIVE initiative

Small satellites; midscale NSF projects; vigorous ATST and synoptic program support; science centers and grant programs; instrument development

X X X
2.0 Accelerate and expand the Heliophysics Explorer program

Enable MIDEX line and Missions of Opportunity

X    
3.0 Restructure STP as a moderate-scale, PI-led line X    
3.1    Implement an IMAP-like mission X    
3.2    Implement a DYNAMIC-like mission X    
3.3    Implement a MEDICI-like mission X    
4.0 Implement a large LWS GDC-like mission X    

 



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4 Recommendations In previous chapters the survey committee describes challenges and opportunities for the field of solar and space physics and outlines goals for the upcoming decade and beyond. This chapter presents recommendations for accomplishing these goals, addressing both research and applications. Summarized in Tables 4.1 and 4.2, the recommendations are prioritized (and numbered as in the Summary) and, where appropriate, directed to a particular agency to form programs that satisfy fiscal and other constraints. Addi- tional recommendations are offered throughout the chapter. The implementation and budget implications of the research recommendations are described for NSF in Chapter 5 and for NASA in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 expands further on the applications recommendations by presenting the survey committee’s vision for a new national program in space weather and space climatology. TABLE 4.1  Summary of Top-Level Decadal Survey Research Recommendations Priority Recommendation NASA NSF Other 0.0 Complete the current program X X 1.0 Implement the DRIVE initiative X X X  Small satellites; midscale NSF projects; vigorous ATST and synoptic program support; science centers and grant programs; instrument development 2.0 Accelerate and expand the Heliophysics Explorer program X   Enable MIDEX line and Missions of Opportunity 3.0 Restructure STP as a moderate-scale, PI-led line X 3.1 Implement an IMAP-like mission X 3.2 Implement a DYNAMIC-like mission X 3.3 Implement a MEDICI-like mission X 4.0 Implement a large LWS GDC-like mission X 75

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76 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY TABLE 4.2  Summary of Top-Level Decadal Survey Applications Recommendations Priority Recommendation NASA NSF Other 1.0 Recharter the National Space Weather Program X X X 2.0 Work in a multiagency partnership to achieve continuity of solar and solar wind observations X X X 2.1 Continue solar wind observations from L1 (DSCOVR, IMAP) X X 2.2 Continue space-based coronagraph and solar magnetic field measurements X X 2.3 Evaluate new observations, platforms, and locations X X X 2.4 Establish a space weather research program at NOAA to effectively transition research to X operations 2.5 Develop and maintain distinct funding lines for basic space physics research and for space X X X weather specification and forecasting RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS Baseline Priority for NASA and NSF: Complete the Current Program The survey committee’s recommended program for NSF and NASA assumes continued support in the near term for the key existing program elements that constitute the Heliophysics Systems Observatory (HSO) and successful implementation of programs in advanced stages of development. NASA’s existing heliophysics flight missions and NSF’s ground-based facilities form a network of observing platforms that operate simultaneously to investigate the solar system. This array can be thought of as a single observatory—the Heliophysics Systems Observatory (HSO) (see Figure 1.2). The evolving HSO lies at the heart of the field of solar and space physics and provides a rich source of observations that can be used to address increasingly interdisciplinary and long-term scientific questions. Missions now under development will expand the HSO and drive scientific discovery. For NASA, these missions include the following: • Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP; Living With a Star (LWS); 2012 launch1) and the related Balloon Array for RBSP Relativistic Electron Losses (BARREL; first launch 2012). These missions will determine the mechanisms that control the energy, intensity, spatial distribution, and time variability of the radiation belts. • The Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS; Explorer program; 2013 launch). IRIS will deliver pioneering observations of chromospheric dynamics to help reveal their role in the origin of the fluxes of heat and mass into the corona and wind. • The Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS; Solar-Terrestrial Probes (STP) program; 2014 launch). MMS will address the physics of magnetic reconnection at the previously inaccessible tiny scale where reconnection is triggered. Missions that are less fully developed but that are part of the assumed baseline program2 include: 1  Following its launch on August 30, 2012, RBSP was renamed the Van Allen Probes. 2  accordance with its charge, the committee did not reprioritize any NASA mission that was in formulation or advanced devel- In opment. In June 2010, the committee’s charge was modified by NASA to include a request for it to present decision rules to guide the future development of the SPP mission.

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RECOMMENDATIONS 77 • Solar Orbiter (a European Space Agency-NASA partnership, 2017 launch). Solar Orbiter will inves- tigate links between the solar surface, corona, and inner heliosphere from as close as 62 solar radii (i.e., closer to the Sun than Mercury’s nearest approach). • Solar Probe Plus (SPP; LWS program; 2018 launch). Solar Probe Plus will make mankind’s first visit to the solar corona to discover how the corona is heated, how the solar wind is accelerated, and how the Sun accelerates particles to high energy. The powerful fleet of space missions that explore our local cosmos will be significantly strengthened with the addition of these missions. However, their implementation as well as the rest of the baseline program will consume nearly all of the resources anticipated to be available for new starts within NASA’s Heliophysics Division through the midpoint of the overall survey period, 2013-2022. For NSF, the previous decade has seen the initial deployment of the Advanced Modular Incoherent Scatter Radar (AMISR) in Alaska, a modular, mobile radar facility that is being used for studies of the upper atmosphere and space weather events, and the initial development of the Advanced Technology Solar Tele- scope (ATST), a 4-meter-aperture optical solar telescope—by far the largest in the world—that will provide the most highly resolved measurements ever obtained of the Sun’s plasma and magnetic field. These new NSF facilities join a broad range of existing ground-based assets (see Figure 1.2) that provide an essential global synoptic perspective and complement space-based measurements of the solar and space physics system. With adequate science and operations support, they will enable frontier research, even as they add to the long-term record necessary for analyzing space climate over solar cycles. The success of these activities at NASA and NSF is fundamentally important to long-term scientific progress in solar and space physics. The survey committee concluded that, with prudent management and careful cost-containment, support for and completion of the ongoing program constitute precisely the right first step for the next decadal interval and as such represent the baseline priority. First Research Recommendation [R1.0], for NASA, NSF, and Other Agencies—Implement the DRIVE Initiative The survey committee recommends implementation of a new, integrated, multiagency initiative (DRIVE— Diversify, Realize, Integrate, Venture, Educate) that will develop more fully and employ more effectively the many experimental and theoretical assets at NASA, NSF, and other agencies. Relatively low-cost activities that maximize the science return of ongoing projects and enable new ones are both essential and cost-effective. However, too often recommendations regarding such activities are relegated to background status or referred to in general terms that are difficult to implement. With this in mind, the survey committee raises as its highest new priority for both NASA and NSF the implementa- tion of an integrated, multiagency initiative (DRIVE; see Figure 4.1) that strengthens existing programs and develops critical new capabilities to address the complex science issues that confront the field. DRIVE is an initiative unified not by a central management structure, but rather through a comprehensive set of multiagency recommendations that will facilitate scientific discovery. This integrative approach is motivated by a sea-change in the way breakthrough science is done. Innovative science is often about breaking down disciplinary boundaries, and nowhere is this more evident than in solar and space physics where, increasingly, a deep understanding of multiply connected physical systems is required to make significant progress. Such system science requires new types and configurations of observations, as well as a new cadre of researchers who can cross disciplinary boundaries seamlessly

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78 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY D R I V E FIGURE 4.1  A relatively small, low-cost initiative, DRIVE provides high leverage to current and future space science research investments with a diverse set of science-enabling capabilities. The five DRIVE components are as follows: • Diversify observing platforms with microsatellites and midscale ground-based assets. • Realize scientific potential by sufficiently funding operations and data analysis. • Integrate observing platforms and strengthen ties between agency disciplines. • Venture forward with science centers and instrument and technology development. • Educate, empower, and inspire the next generation4-1 Figure of space researchers. and develop theoretical and computational models that extract the essential physics from measurements made across multiple observing platforms. The survey committee concluded that a successful solar and space physics scientific program over the next decade is one that balances spaceflight missions of various sizes with supporting programs and infrastructure investments. The goal for the next decade is to: • Aggressively pursue innovative technological and theoretical advances, • Build tools for the research community that enable new breakthroughs, and • Implement an exciting program that addresses key science opportunities while being mindful of fiscal and other constraints.

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RECOMMENDATIONS 79 The five DRIVE components are defined in Figure 4.1, and specific, actionable sub-recommendations for each of these components are presented below. In recommending the DRIVE initiative, the survey committee is cognizant that in a constrained budget environment funding for this program, while mod- est, will come at the expense of NASA missions. In the case of the NASA DRIVE sub-recommendations, the survey committee has therefore provided explicit costing to ensure that the initiative, along with the other program recommendations, fits within the projected NASA budget envelope (Chapter 6). For NSF, the survey committee provides a more general discussion of expected costs, here and in the NSF program implementation discussion in Chapter 5. The survey committee views the implementation of the DRIVE initiative as crucial to accomplishing the proposed program of research in solar and space physics over the next decade. Diversify: Diversify Observing Platforms with Microsatellites and Midscale Ground-Based Assets Exploration of the complex heliospheric system in the next decade requires the strategic use of diverse assets that range from large missions and facilities, through Explorers and mid-size projects, to small CubeSats and suborbital flights (Figure 4.2). The field is entering an era of opportunities for multipoint and multiscale3 measurements made with an increasingly diverse set of platforms and technologies (rockets, balloons, CubeSats, arrays, commercial and international launchers and satellites, and so on). For more information, see Appendix C, “Toward a Diversified, Distributed Sensor Deployment Strategy.” As part of the DRIVE initiative, the survey committee particularly urges that NASA and NSF develop ongoing small flight opportunities and midscale ground-based projects. Such platforms enable the direct engagement and training of a new generation of experimentalists who gain end-to-end experiences ranging from concept formation to project execution. Midscale Projects The current NSF equipment and facilities program supports investments in both small and very large facilities. NSF maintains a major research instrumentation program for instrument development projects (less than $4 million per year), and the Major Research Equipment and Facilities Construction (MREFC) program for large infrastructure projects (greater than ~$90 million per year for Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Division-sponsored projects). However, this program does not cover midscale projects, many of which have been identified by the survey committee as cost-effective additions of high priority to the overall program. The addition of a midscale funding capability could enable solar and space physics projects with well-developed science and implementation plans. Examples include the proposed Frequency-Agile Solar Radio (FASR) and Coronal Solar Magnetism Observatory (COSMO) telescopes, as well as next-generation ATST instrumentation and other projects that are not yet well developed but are representative of the kind of creative approaches that will be necessary for filling gaps in observational capabilities and for moving the survey’s integrated science plan forward (see “Candidates for a Midscale Line” in Chapter 5). A mid- scale funding line would also have a major impact on existing ground-based facilities, because it would rejuvenate broadly utilized assets by taking advantage of new innovations and addressing modern science opportunities. Finally, it would include essential support for accompanying research—a key requirement for maximizing scientific benefit. This is consistent with the emphasis in the 2010 astronomy and astrophysics decadal survey, which recommended a midscale line as its second priority in large ground-based projects.4 3  Multiscale measurements involve the study of plasma dynamics, which involves the interaction of distinct domains with a large range of spatial scales. 4  National Research Council, New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics, The National Academies Press, Wash- ington, D.C., 2010.

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80 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY DIVERSIFY FIGURE 4.2  Diversify observing platforms with microsatellites and midscale ground-based assets. A broad range of assets of multiple sizes, both ground- and space-based, are needed to span the heliophysics system. Figure 4-2 Recommendation: The National Science Foundation should create a new, competitively selected midscale project funding line in order to enable midscale projects and instrumentation for large projects. Tiny Satellites Since the 2003 solar and space physics decadal survey, a new experimental capability has emerged for very small spacecraft, which can act as stand-alone measurement platforms or be integrated into a greater whole. These platforms are enabled by innovations in miniature, low-power, highly integrated electron- ics and nanoscale manufacturing techniques, and they provide potentially revolutionary approaches to experimental space science. For example, small, low-cost satellites may be deployed into regions where satellite lifetimes are short but where important yet poorly characterized interactions take place. Opera- tion of miniaturized avionics and instrumentation in high radiation environments both spurs technological development and provides valuable knowledge of space weather. Experiments on very small spacecraft have an important educational impact, as well. A survey of solar and space physics graduate students at NSF’s GEM, SHINE, and CEDAR workshops indicated that

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RECOMMENDATIONS 81 the opportunity to work on projects that could produce real results within the time frame of a graduate thesis was a great attraction to the field (see Appendix D, “Education and Workforce Issues in Solar and Space Physics”). NSF’s CubeSat initiative5 promotes science done by very small satellites and provides prime educa- tional opportunities for young experimenters and engineers. The education and training value of these programs has been strongly recognized by the university research community, an endorsement that is itself an argument for an increased launch cadence (more than one per year). As CubeSat grows, it is critical to develop best-in-class educational projects and track the impacts of investments in these potentially game-changing assets. Recommendation: NSF’s CubeSat program should be augmented to enable at least two new starts per year. Detailed metrics should be maintained, documenting the accomplishments of the program in terms of training, research, technology development, and contributions to space weather forecasting. NASA’s Low-Cost Access to Space (LCAS) program supports suborbital science missions, and it also provides a unique avenue for graduate-student training and technology development. An increase in the present cadence of sounding rocket investigations and an augmentation by a tiny satellites program, complementary to NSF’s CubeSats, will strengthen LCAS and capitalize on new capabilities. Recommendation: A NASA tiny-satellite grants program should be implemented, augmenting the cur- rent Low-Cost Access to Space (LCAS) program, to enable a broadened set of observations, technology development, and student training. Sounding rocket, balloon, and tiny-satellite experiments should be managed and funded at a level to enable a combined new-start rate of at least six per year, requiring the addition of $9 million per year (plus an increase for inflation) to the current LCAS new-start budget of $4 million per year for all of solar and space physics. Realize: Realize Scientific Potential by Sufficiently Funding Operations and Data Analysis The value of a mission or ground-based investigation is fully realized, and science goals achieved, only if the right measurements are performed over the mission’s lifetime and new data are analyzed fully (Figure 4.3). Realizing the full scientific potential of solar and space physics assets therefore requires investment in their continuing operation and in effective exploitation of data (Box 4.1). Furthermore, a successful investigation should also include a focused data analysis program (Box 4.2) that supports science goals that might span platforms or might change throughout a mission. The following program augmentations expand the potential for new discoveries from data. Advanced Technology Space Telescope (ATST) Operations Starting in 2018, NSF’s ATST will provide the most highly resolved measurements of the Sun’s plasma and magnetic field ever obtained. The ATST is currently under construction, funded as a large project by NSF’s MREFC program. To fully realize this investment, funding for its operations and for data analysis has to be identified. In particular, ATST requires adequate, sustained funding from NSF for operation, data processing and analysis, development of advanced instrumentation, and research grant support for ATST users. The National Solar Observatory (NSO) FY 2001-2015 long-range budget estimate for annual ATST operations and data services is approximately $18 million. This amount, in addition to a required $4 mil- 5  Formally known as the CubeSat-based Science Missions for Space Weather and Atmospheric Research.

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82 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY REALIZE FIGURE 4.3  Realize scientific potential by sufficiently funding operations and data analysis. As an example of how exten- sive data analysis leads to physical understanding, this figure shows a power spectrum of solar surface oscillations (black line) that can be analyzed via sophisticated helioseismic inversion to determine the nature of plasma flows inside the Sun (two-dimensional color image). Figure 4-3 lion per year for NSO synoptic programs, will require a budget augmentation of approximately $12 million above the current NSO operating budget. Research grants and advanced instrumentation development will require additional funds. Recommendation: NSF should provide funding sufficient for essential synoptic observations and for effi- cient and scientifically productive operation of the Advanced Technology Solar Telescope (ATST), which provides a revolutionary new window on the solar magnetic atmosphere. Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO&DA) The very successful Heliophysics Systems Observatory is fueled by NASA MO&DA mission exten- sions and guest investigator (GI) programs, which ensure that the full range of essential data are collected, maintained, and analyzed. The survey committee concluded that a higher level of MO&DA funding is

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RECOMMENDATIONS 83 BOX 4.1  DATA EXPLOITATION Significant progress has been made over the past decade in establishing the essential components of the solar and space physics data environment. However, to achieve key national research and applications goals requires a data environment that draws together new and archived satellite and ground-based solar and space physics data sets and computational results from the research and operations communities. As discussed in more detail in Appendix B, such an environment would include: • Coordinated development of a data systems infrastructure that includes data systems software, data analysis tools, and training of personnel; • Community oversight of emerging, integrated data systems and interagency coordination of data policies; • Exploitation of emerging information technologies without investment in their initial development; • Virtual observatories as a specific component of the solar and space physics research-supporting infra- structure, rather than as a direct competitor for research funds; • Community-based development of software tools, including tools for data mining and assimilation; and • Semantic technologies to enable cross-discipline data access. required to exploit the opportunities created by the HSO, especially considering the importance of broad and extended data sets for exploring space weather and space climatology. Moreover, the survey committee concluded that annual competition for support via a stable general GI program is essential. The general GI program is the only funding source for research utilizing data from missions beyond their prime mission phase. Thus, for example, when the data-rich SDO mission finishes its prime phase in 2015, the enormous research potential of this mission should be supported by the general GI program. Recommendation: NASA should permanently augment MO&DA support by $10 million per year plus annual increases for inflation, in order to take advantage of new opportunities yielded by the increasingly rich Heliophysics Systems Observatory assets and data. BOX 4.2  NASA FUNDING FOR MISSION DATA ANALYSIS The hard decisions that have to be made in response to budget limitations have too often resulted in cuts in the mission operations and data analysis (MO&DA) and guest investigator (GI) portions of missions, com- promising the scientific potential of the mission. Example 1: The general GI program (supported from MO&DA funds) was completely cut in 2010, with impacts that cascaded through the other Research and Analysis (R&A) programs, causing the Solar and Heliospheric Supporting Research and Technology (SR&T) program to be over- subscribed by a factor of 6.7 (40 percent higher than the previous year). As a result, 36 percent of top-ranked (selectable) proposals were not funded. Example 2: Limited Phase-E funding for data analysis was included in the original mission funding profile of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Even less was allocated to the instrument teams after the first 2 years because science funding was planned to come from a mission-specific GI program. The GI program was subsequently scaled back because of budget pressures and little was available in the first year for data analysis for the SDO, a mission that cost around $850 million to build and launch and that is producing unprecedented volumes of data.

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84 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY Mission Guest Investigators In addition to MO&DA, a vibrant NASA mission-specific GI program helps ensure mission success by broadening participation and facilitating new discoveries. Future funding should keep pace with new missions. Recommendation: A directed guest investigator program, set at a percentage (~2 percent) of the total future NASA mission cost, should be established in order to maximize each mission’s science return. Fur- ther, just as an instrument descoping would require an evaluation of impact on mission science goals, so, too, should the consequences of a reduction in mission-specific guest investigator programs and Phase-E funding merit an equally stringent evaluation. Integrate: Integrate Observing Platforms and Strengthen Ties Between Agency Disciplines The frontiers of current solar and space physics research are at the interfaces between traditional disciplines (Figure 4.4). Moreover, increasingly complex observational requirements (multipoint and mul- tiscale) are becoming tractable thanks to platform diversification and other technological advances (see Appendix C). In particular, recent efforts such as the Whole Heliosphere Interval have demonstrated the effectiveness of coordinating multiscale instruments and a multidisciplinary analysis approach to yield cutting-edge science at modest cost (Box 4.3). Similarly, solar and space physics can benefit science inves- tigations in related fields, such as planetary science, Earth science, physics, and astrophysics, and can also benefit from novel experimental (e.g., laboratory) and theoretical tools that provide end-to-end integration. Dedicated Laboratory Experiments Laboratory studies probe fundamental plasma physical processes and produce chemical and spectro- scopic measurements that support satellite measurements and atmospheric models. They provide bench- marks for integrating theory and modeling with observation in solar and space physics (Box 4.4). Such laboratory experiments should be funded in a multiagency fashion. Recommendation: NASA should join with NSF and DOE in a multiagency program on laboratory plasma astrophysics and spectroscopy, with an expected NASA contribution ramping from $2 million per year (plus increases for inflation), in order to obtain unique insights into fundamental physical processes. Multidisciplinary Science Solar and space physics is a multidisciplinary science, in terms of both the range of topics within its sub- fields and its interfaces with physics, chemistry, astronomy, and planetary and Earth science. Understanding how solar structure, evolution, and dynamics relate to those of other stars, how the heliosphere relates to astrospheres, and how Earth’s magnetosphere compares to those of other planets illustrates why research in each of the subdisciplines of solar, planetary, stellar, galactic, and heliospheric physics benefits the others. Solar-irradiance variations and other indirect forcings of Earth, such as top-down coupling of solar ultraviolet heating and photochemistry in the stratosphere and the possible influence of galactic cosmic rays, affect global climate changes and also regional changes due to subtle shifts in the atmosphere, ocean circulation patterns, and cloud cover. Breakthrough science can arise at the interfaces of these disciplines. The multidisciplinary nature of solar and space physics is reflected in its placement within multiple divisions and directorates at NSF. However, the survey committee concluded that this organizational structure may be limiting in particular for science lying at the interfaces between solar and space physics and research in Earth science and astrophysics. A key example of the consequences of the current NSF

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RECOMMENDATIONS 85 INTEGRATE FIGURE 4.4  Integrate observing platforms and strengthen ties between agency disciplines. Diverse space- and ground- based assets have to be routinely combined to maximize their multiscale potential for understanding the solar and space physics system as a whole. Likewise, developing connections between field and related scientific disciplines strengthens insight into shared, fundamental physical processes. Figure 4-4 arrangement concerns the ongoing exploration of the boundary regions of the heliosphere—currently one of the most fruitful and exciting areas of research, but one that has very little focus at NSF. Recommendation: NSF should ensure that funding is available for basic research in subjects that fall between sections, divisions, and directorates, such as planetary magnetospheres and ionospheres, the Sun as a star, and the outer heliosphere. In particular, research on the outer heliosphere should be included explicitly in the scope of research supported by the Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Division at NSF. Solar and space physics has a clear home in NASA’s Heliophysics Division. However, there remain important scientific links between the Heliophysics Division and the Astrophysics, Planetary Sciences, and Earth Sciences divisions. The survey committee concluded that multidisciplinary collaborations between the solar, heliosphere, Earth science, and climate change communities are valuable, and it recognizes in

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RECOMMENDATIONS 105 TABLE 4.5  MEDICI Key Parameters to Be Measured from Space Measurement Instrument Key Parametersa Requirements ENA imager Three-dimensional ring current and near- Temporal and spatial resolution: 1 minute, Earth plasma sheet pressure-bearing ion 0.5 RE densities EUV imager Evolution of plasmasphere density 30.4 nm, temporal/spatial resolution: 1 minute, 0.05 RE FUV cameras (1 spacecraft only) Precipitating auroral particle flux, LBH long and short wavelengths; 5- to ionospheric electron density and 10-km resolution conductivity, and thermospheric conditions Ion and electron plasma sensors In situ electron and ion plasma densities, Helium, oxygen, protons, electrons from temperatures, and velocities a few electronvolts to 30 keV; ~1-minute resolution Magnetometer In situ magnetic fields Vector B and delta-B (dc and ac); ~ 1-second resolution NOTE: Parameters listed are those that must be measured to achieve the most important objectives and to address the key science questions that motivate the selection of this reference mission. MEDICI requires no new technology development and all of the instruments have high heritage. Each of the mission’s three measurement goals contributes essential information about cross-scale geospace dynamics: the first is to continuously image the three-dimensional distribution of two critical inner magnetospheric plasmas; the second is to image and measure the ionosphere-thermosphere system at multiple wavelengths in the far ultraviolet (FUV); and the third is to measure, in situ, the critical near-Earth plasmas and magnetic field in the cusp and near-Earth plasma sheet plasma. The instrument configuration shown here illustrates one realization of MEDICI; alternative configurations are possible that would not impact cost significantly, for example, the addition, to an otherwise identical spacecraft, of a second set of FUV Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) long- and short-wavelength cameras (see Appendix E). Complementing and augmenting the high-altitude observations, MEDICI includes funded participation for significant low-altitude components: measurements from a large range of resources including DMSP or its follow-on Defense Weather Satellite System, IRIDIUM/AMPERE current maps, radar arrays from high to midlatitudes (SuperDARN, Millstone Hill, AMISR), GPS TEC maps, and magnetometer and ground-based auroral all-sky camera arrays. The result will be global specification of the ionospheric electric field and electric current patterns in both hemispheres, essentially completing observational constraints on the electrodynamic system at low altitude. MEDICI Contributions to the HSO MEDICI will both benefit from and enhance the science return from almost any geospace mission that flies contemporaneously, such as upstream solar wind monitors, geostationary satellites, and low- Earth-orbit missions. In particular, by providing global context and quantitative estimates for magneto- spheric-ionospheric plasma and energy exchange, MEDICI has significant value for missions investigating ionospheric conditions, outflow of ionospheric plasma into the magnetosphere, energy input from the magnetosphere into the ionosphere, and AIM coupling in general. Thus it will add value to a host of pos- sible ionospheric strategic missions, Explorers, and rocket and balloon campaigns. Further, with continuous imaging and in situ observations from two separate platforms, it would provide indispensable validating observations of system-level interactions and processes that feed geospace predictive models. The likely long duration of the notional MEDICI mission will allow it to provide a transformative framework into which additional future science missions can naturally fit.

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106 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY Fourth Research Recommendation [R4.0] for NASA—Implement a Large Living With a Star Mission A very important distinction is made by the survey committee between the restructured STP program and the Living with a Star (LWS) mission. Certain scientific problems can be addressed only by missions that are relatively complex and costly. Solar Probe Plus, which will travel closer to the Sun than any previous spacecraft, is an example of this type of mission; future constellation missions that would utilize multiple spacecraft to provide simultaneous measurements from broad regions of space (so as to be able to separate spatial from temporal effects and reveal the couplings between adjacent regions of space) are another. As research evolves naturally from the discovery-based mode to one focused increasingly on quantification and prediction, missions benefit strongly from an integrative approach, whereby the knowledge obtained from prior research can be combined with new, innovative measurements for the development of understanding of the global machinery of the system. This effort may naturally require a larger mission, and it also accords with the societal-relevance theme of the LWS program. In the survey committee’s plan, major missions are thus appropriately undertaken via NASA’s LWS program and would continue to be executed by NASA centers, whereas the STP program should be considered a community program, like the Explorer program. Besides the flight program, there are other integral thematic elements essential to the LWS science and technology program, such as the TR&T program that conducts relevant focused research, and strategic capabilities that establish essential underlying technical capabilities. Also included in LWS are heliophys- ics summer schools. The survey committee concluded that the unique LWS research, technology, and education programs remain of great value. The survey committee’s recommended science target for the next major LWS mission, as demonstrated by the reference mission Geospace Dynamics Constellation, would provide crucial scientific measurements of the extremely variable conditions in near-Earth space. Recommended LWS Science Target The survey committee recommends that, following the launch of RBSP and SPP, the next LWS science target focus on how Earth’s atmosphere absorbs solar wind energy. The recommended reference mission is Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC). Geospace Dynamics Constellation GDC Overview During geomagnetic storms, solar wind energy is deposited in Earth’s atmosphere, but only after being transformed and directed by a number of processes in geospace. The primary focus of the Geospace Dynamics Constellation reference mission is to reveal how the atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere are coupled together as a system and to understand how this system regulates the response of all geospace to external energy input. Using current and foreseeable technologies, GDC implements a systematic and robust observational approach to measure all the critical parameters of the system in optimally spaced orbital planes, thus providing unprecedented coverage in both local time and latitude. Moreover, spacecraft in the GDC constellation will orbit at relatively low altitudes where both neutral and ionized gases are strongly coupled through dynamical and chemical processes. The GDC reference mission brings a new focus to critical scientific questions: 1. How does solar wind/magnetospheric energy energize the ionosphere and thermosphere? 2. How does the IT system respond and ultimately modify how the magnetosphere transmits solar wind energy to Earth?

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RECOMMENDATIONS 107 3. How is solar wind energy partitioned into dynamical and chemical effects in the IT system, and what temporal and spatial scales of interaction determine this partitioning? 4. How are these effects modified by the dynamical and energetic variability of the ionosphere-upper atmosphere introduced by atmospheric wave forcing from below? The observational problem is such that global dynamics cannot be captured by any number of probes on a single satellite. When averaged over a sufficiently long period of time, data from a single satellite provide a useful climatology as a function of latitude and longitude. However, such data are static and do not show the physical coupling inherent in the continuously evolving density and velocity patterns (dynamics) as they respond at all local times to the many drivers of the AIM system. For example, electromagnetic flux and energetic particle precipitation are highly structured and variable in latitude and local time. The dynamical response includes hydrodynamic atmospheric waves propagating from high to low latitudes, but differently during day and night due to the large difference in neutral-ion drag. During major storms, the large-scale upper atmospheric wind patterns are greatly disturbed and constantly altered by the penetrating and dynamo electric fields that exhibit strong local time varia- tions. Further, the chemical mixing of the upper atmosphere by auroral heating expands to low latitudes and depletes the ionospheric plasma, reducing an important source of fuel for a geomagnetic storm, but again in a highly local-time-dependent manner. These phenomena exemplify why a new approach must be taken to advance understanding of the AIM system and how Earth’s upper atmosphere and ionosphere regulate the response of geospace to significant solar wind energy inputs. GDC would be a constellation of identical satellites in low Earth orbit providing simultaneous, global observations of the AIM system over roughly the range of local times over which magnetospheric drivers (and thus AIM responses) are organized. The satellites would have high-inclination circular orbits in the 300- to 450-km altitude range. Table 8.1 in Chapter 8 summarizes the science objectives, science merit, and space weather relevance of GDC and how it relates to the overall decadal survey strategy. GDC Mission Concept The nominal plan for GDC is to have six identical satellites that will be spread individually into equally spaced orbital planes separated by 30° longitude, thus providing measurements at 12 local times, with a resolution of 2 hours local time, as shown in Figure 4.10. The satellites will nominally have an inclina- tion of 80°, in order to use precession to help separate the local time planes, while maintaining adequate coverage of the high-latitude region. GDC Contributions to the HSO GDC will make measurements critical to understanding how the IT system regulates the response of geospace to external forcing (Table 4.6). The constellation of satellites will provide a complete picture of the dynamic exchange of energy and momentum that occurs between ionized and neutral gases at high latitudes, providing the HSO a critical capability for measuring the response and electrodynamic feedback of Earth’s IT system to drivers originating in the solar wind and magnetosphere. GDC will also determine the global response of the IT system to magnetic activity and storms and expose how changes in the system at different locations are related. Finally, it will determine the influence of forcing from below on the IT system, by measuring the global variability of thermospheric waves and tides on a day-to-day basis with the spatial resolution that only a constellation of satellites can provide.

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108 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY FIGURE 4.10  Potential orbital configurations for Geospace Dynamics Constellation. Three main orbital configurations have been considered thus far: (a) spacecraft fully spread out in latitude to provide continuous, global coverage; (b) spacecraft configured as a group with simultaneous, dense coverage at high latitudes alternating between polar cap regions every 45 minutes; and (c) satellites configured to orbit in Figure 4-10 and 8-20 two, separated three-satellite armadas, such that three are in the Northern Hemisphere while three are in the Southern Hemisphere, providing simultaneous coverage of both polar regions every 45 minutes. Configurations (b) and (c) both gather consolidated measurements at the mid- and low latitudes, with simultane- ous crossings of the equator by all six satellites every 45 minutes (d), while the entire globe is sampled every 90 minutes at 12 local times (as is the case for configuration (a). Minimal amounts of propellant relative to the baseline capacity are needed to alternate between these configurations, and the station-keeping time to change and maintain these configura- tions is on the order of hours. The most cost-effective launch approach (given available launchers) would be to launch all six satellites with one vehicle. In this case, the satellites are first placed in a highly elliptical orbit plane (e.g., with perigee of 450 and apogee of 2,000 km) with an 80° inclination. As they then precess, these satellites will spread out in equally separated local time planes (requiring ~12 months). Note that propulsion can be used to decrease this deployment time. In this scenario, the apogee of one satellite is immediately lowered to provide an initial 450-km circular orbit, while the remaining five satellites precess in local time. After about 2.5 months, in which the satellites have precessed 30 degrees in local time, a second satellite orbit is changed to 450-km circular orbit. The process continues until all six are spread out equally and converted to 450-km circular orbits. Dur- ing the time required to establish the final distribution in local time of the six satellites, this initial observing phase permits “pearls-on-a-string” observations by the satellites along highly elliptical orbits. SOURCE: (a-c) Orbital configurations courtesy of the Aerospace Corporation using Earth images provided by Living Earth, Inc.; (d) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

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RECOMMENDATIONS 109 TABLE 4.6  GDC Key Parameters to Be Measured from Space Notional Instrument Key Parameters Nominal Altitude Ion Velocity Meter (includes RPA) Vi, Ti, Ni, broad ion composition 300-400 km Neutral Wind Meter (NWM) Un, Tn, Nn, broad neutral composition 300-400 km Ionization Gauge Neutral density 300-400 km Magnetometer Vector B, Delta B, currents 300-400 km Electron Spectromenter Electron distributions, pitch angle 300-400 km (0.05 eV to 20 keV) NOTE: The measurements needed to achieve the main objectives of the mission and answer the science questions linked to them are itemized. Each satellite includes an identical suite of “notional” instruments, as listed here. Instruments to measure both neutral and ionized state parameters, including dynamics, are included. Also included are a magnetometer and an energetic particle detector for measuring energy and momentum forcing from the magnetosphere. All instruments have extensive flight heritage. APPLICATIONS RECOMMENDATIONS: SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATOLOGY Space weather is receiving increased attention as the importance of its effects on society is more broadly recognized. Previous NRC reports13 and the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) Strategic Plan 201014 document the nation’s need for increased capability to specify and predict the weather and climate of the space environment. The past decade has seen the growth of new services and technologies, including GPS location and timing services, aircraft flights over polar regions, electric power transmission systems, and a growing space tourism industry, all of which increase the need to consider vulnerabilities that can result from space weather conditions. Space weather affects our lives directly and indirectly. In the extreme case of an event of historic proportion, space weather may even lead to catastrophic disrup- tions of society. From economic and societal perspectives, reliable knowledge about and forecasting of conditions in the space environment are important on a range of timescales for multiple applications. Prominent among them are radio signal utilization (which enables increasingly precise navigation and communication) and mitigation of the drag on Earth-orbiting objects that alters the location of spacecraft, threatens their functionality as a result of collisions with debris, and impedes reliable determination of reentry. Energetic particles can damage assets and humans in space. Currents induced in ground systems can disrupt and damage power grids and pipelines. All national space weather forecasting entities (Box 4.8) currently rely on potentially threatened operational space assets and critical data from limited-term research missions, and they require a better- supported and cost-effective research-to-operations pathway for models. As such, the future of even the status quo is threatened—at a time when national space weather requirements are continuously growing. The U.S. and international space physics communities are poised to make significant advances in space weather and space climate science. There is already a vibrant, cooperative enterprise of study along with a strong culture of student development across the three major skill areas: instrument development, data analysis, and theory and modeling. The future is therefore highly promising. However, the key is long-term 13  See National Research Council, Severe Space Weather: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts (2009), and National Research Council, Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (2011), both published by the National Academies Press, Washington, D.C. 14  Committee for Space Weather, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, “National Space Weather Program Strategic Plan,” FCM-P30-2010, August 17, 2010, available at http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-sp/fcm-p30.htm.

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110 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY BOX 4.8  SPACE WEATHER TODAY As the nation’s official source of space weather alerts and warnings, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) delivers space weather products and services that meet evolving national needs. Within NOAA, SWPC works especially closely with the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), which provides satellite services and includes the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), which archives and disseminates NOAA’s data. As part of the National Weather Service, SWPC provides actionable alerts, fore- casts, and data products to space weather customers and works closely with partner agencies, including NASA, the Department of Defense (DOD), the Department of Energy, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Federal Aviation Administration. In addition to these agencies, SWPC also works with commercial service providers and the international community to acquire and share data and information needed to carry out its role in serving the nation with space weather products and services. The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) has the lead for providing space weather data, products, and ser- vices to DOD users worldwide. Missions supported range from ground- and sea-based users of HF and satellite communications and GPS navigation systems, to space surveillance and tracking radars, to on-orbit satellite operations. AFWA’s Space Weather Operations Center collects observations in real time, operates specification and forecast models, and disseminates mission-tailored information to users via Web services, Web pages, and dedicated communications. AFWA, in close collaboration with Air Force Space Command and the Air Force and Naval Research Laboratories, has been a strong proponent of transitioning research to operations, and it routinely leverages sensor data and models provided by NOAA, NASA, and DOD-funded research efforts. AFWA collaborates closely with the Air Force Research Laboratory Space Weather Center of Excellence and with NASA’s Space Weather Laboratory. NASA is addressing its own space weather needs through a combination of two collaborating centers. The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) has as its focus the protection of humans in space, from low Earth orbit to destinations beyond. Combining data from NASA, NOAA, and partner sensors, SRAG provides state-of-the- art assessments tailored to the needs of NASA’s human spaceflight program. The Space Weather Laboratory (SWL) provides services to NASA’s robotic missions, based on execution of the largest set of space weather forecasting models in existence to date. Data from a large variety of sources and model output are gathered and disseminated by an innovative space weather analysis system that is accessible not only by NASA but also by interests worldwide. Both SRAG and SWL collaborate closely with each other, as well as with entities inside and outside the United States. Recent years have seen the emergence of a vibrant commercial sector that is engaging in space weather operations and providing new services and products for customers ranging from agencies and commercial aerospace to consumers. University organizations have established operational centers that produce space weather data for commercial users (e.g., Utah State University’s Space Weather Center). An important focus of these commercial activities is the provision of derivative products to improve communications and naviga- tion. The American Commercial Space Weather Association was formed in 2011 to represent private-sector commercial interests nationally and internationally; its formation represents a milestone at the end of the first decade of a maturing commercial space weather enterprise. Member companies also supply advisory services related to space weather to government agencies and commercial organizations.

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RECOMMENDATIONS 111 space environment measurements and modeling, with many commonalities between space weather and space climate needs. First Applications Recommendation [A1.0]—Recharter the National Space Weather Program The survey committee concluded that, in addition to agency-appropriate activities by NASA, NSF, NOAA, and DOD to support space weather model research and development, validation, and transition to operations, a comprehensive plan for space weather and climatology is also needed to fulfill the require- ments presented in the June 2010 U.S. National Space Policy15 and envisioned in the 2010 National Space Weather Program Strategic Plan.16 However, implementation of such a program would require funding well above what the survey committee assumes to be currently available; the committee advises that an initiative in space weather and climatology proceed only if its execution does not impinge on the development and timely completion of the other recommended activities that are described in this chapter and shown in Figure 6.1. In Chapter 7, the survey committee presents a vision for a renewed national commitment to a compre- hensive program in space weather and climatology that would provide long-term observations of the space weather environment and support the development and application of coupled space weather models to protect critical societal infrastructure, including communication, navigation, and terrestrial meteorological spacecraft. Realization of the committee’s plan, or a similar plan, will require action across a number of agencies and coordination at an appropriately higher level in government. The charter for the NSWP dates to its inception in 1995. Rechartering the NSWP would provide an opportunity to review the program and to consider the issues raised here, especially those pertaining to pro- gram oversight and agency roles and responsibilities. This need informs the following recommendation:17 As part of a plan to develop and coordinate a comprehensive program in space weather and climatology, the survey committee recommends that the National Space Weather Program be rechartered under the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council. With the active participation of the Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Office of Management and Budget, the program should build on current agency efforts, leverage the new capabilities and knowledge that will arise from implementation of the programs recommended in this report, and develop additional capabilities, on the ground and in space, that are specifically tailored to space weather monitoring and prediction. 15 National Space Policy of the United States of America, June 28, 2010, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/ national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf. 16 Committee for Space Weather, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM), National Space Weather Program Strategic Plan, FCM-P30-2010, August 17, 2010, available at http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-sp/fcm- p30.htm. 17  similar recommendation was made in a review of the NSWP program that was published in 2006. In that review, it is recom- A mended that,   The NSWPC should review and update its now 10-year-old charter to describe clearly its oversight responsibilities. These   should include, but not be limited to, the authority to: (1) address and resolve interagency issues, concerns, and questions; (2) reprioritize and leverage existing resources to meet changing needs and requirements; (3) approve priorities and new require- ments as appropriate and take coordinated action to obtain the needed resources through each agency’s budgetary process; (4) identify resources needed to achieve established objectives; and (5) coordinate and leverage individual organizational efforts and resources and ensure the effective exchange of information.   See, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, Report of the Assessment Committee for the National Space Weather Program, FCM-R24-2006, June 2006, p. xiii, available at http://nswp.gov/nswp_acreport0706.pdf.

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112 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY Benefits of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research Interplay An interplay between research and operations benefits both, as reflected by the operational commu- nity’s use of real-time data from research spacecraft and by use of operational ground and space assets for science. There are many examples of the value of operational assets to the research community and of research assets to the operational community. Examples include research data from GOES, POES, DMSP, and COSMIC, and operational use of data from ACE, SOHO, SDO, and STEREO. The routine provision of space weather data from science missions is invaluable. Nevertheless, although NOAA’s operational mission data are generally available, other data sets, e.g., from DOD’s LANL and GPS spacecraft, are not receiving the necessary support or being made available to the scientific community. The operational use of models, and their validation, help to identify model limitations and contribute to future model improve- ments. Research models and theory are becoming more accessible to operators and are contributing to improved forecasts (e.g., the Community Coordinated Modeling Center). By making output from research and operational models widely available to the research community, broad-based model development and supporting validation and verification are facilitated. Conducting space weather operations in a closely coupled fashion with related research efforts benefits from an infusion of the latest knowledge and technol- ogy. Including research personnel in the review of requirements for operational sensors and data maximizes the data’s value to both operations and science. Such efforts advance the pace of model development and transition to operations by all participants, ranging from the academic researcher to the SWPC, AFWA, and NASA operators. The SWL at NASA GSFC had many successes in transitioning models to NASA operations. The first major transition of a large-scale physics-based numerical model to SWPC operations, the WSA- Enlil model (developed as part of the NSF Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling), was achieved in 2011, building on 20 years of scientific research funded by multiple agencies. Second Applications Recommendation [A2.0]—Work in a Multiagency Partnership to Achieve Continuity of Solar and Solar Wind Observations Solar, interplanetary, and near-Earth observations of the space environment are the mainstays of the space weather enterprise. Space observations are used for (1) space environment situational awareness; (2) inputs to models that provide spatial and temporal predictions; (3) assimilation into models to improve model accuracy; (4) validation of model performance, both in operations and during model development; (5) building of a historical database for climatology and empirical models; (6) specific tailored products such as, for example, satellite anomaly resolution; and (7) research to improve understanding of the space environment and the physical processes involved in solar-terrestrial interactions. Most of these observations are needed in real time to be useful for operations. They come from NOAA or DOD operational missions, from NASA’s science missions, or from science activities at other agencies. Examples include NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), the Air Force’s Solar Observing Optical Network (SOON), and H-alpha monitoring via NSO’s Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), or NASA missions such as SDO, SOHO, ACE, and STEREO. They also come from other agency programs, such as ground-based magnetometers operated by the U.S. Geological Survey, or from international collaborations, such as the proposed collaboration between the United States and Taiwan to jointly fund and operate the COSMIC-2 spacecraft constellation. For some uses—such as resolving satellite anomalies, validating operational model performance, and providing data for long-term climate purposes—data are not needed in real time. The space environment from the Sun to Earth and other planets is vast, in terms not only of the volume that has to be monitored but also the parameters that have to be measured and the spectral ranges that need

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RECOMMENDATIONS 113 to be covered. In the past decade, space weather needs have been served by improved observations from both operational and science missions, such as GOES, STEREO, and ACE. At the same time, there are defi- ciencies, for example, the likely absence of energetic-particle sensors on future NOAA low-altitude polar- orbiting satellites and uncertainty regarding their presence on future Air Force defense weather satellites. Recently, there has been admirable progress as well as interagency cooperation among NASA, the U.S. Air Force, and NOAA to develop a long-sought and much-needed replacement for the aging ACE solar wind satellite, which was launched into a halo orbit around the L1 libration point in 1997. However, it now appears that the replacement spacecraft, DSCOVR, will not carry the coronagraph that is needed to replace observations from the SOHO spacecraft, which was launched in 1995. Moreover, instruments on DSCOVR, like those currently on ACE, have significant limitations in monitoring the highest-velocity events. IMAP, described above, provides an opportunity to apply to a next generation of solar wind instruments what has been learned over the past two solar cycles about solar wind variability. In summary, the survey committee found that NOAA, DOD, and other agencies play an important role in maintaining and expanding the observational foundation of accurate and timely data used for space weather operations and space climatology. The survey committee also concluded that it is important that NASA continue to make science mission data available in cases in which those data contribute to timely space weather operations. The survey committee recommends that NASA, NOAA, and the Department of Defense should work in partnership to plan for continuity of solar and solar wind observations beyond the lifetimes of ACE, SOHO, and STEREO. In particular, • [A2.1] Solar wind measurements from L1 should be continued, because they are essential for space weather operations and research. The DSCOVR L1 monitor and IMAP STP mission are recommended for the near term, but plans should be made to ensure that measurements from L1 continue uninterrupted into the future. • [A2.2] Space-based coronagraph and solar magnetic field measurements should likewise be continued. • [A2.3] The space weather community should evaluate new observations, platforms, and locations that have the potential to provide improved space weather services. In addition, the utility of employing newly emerging information dissemination systems for space weather alerts should be assessed. Models and the Transition of Research to Operations Research, the foundation for future improvements in space weather services, is necessary for progress and improvement in models that are just beginning to reach a level of maturity such that they can benefit space weather customers. But just as the first Sun-to-Earth model (WSA-Enlil) is being implemented at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (Figure 4.11), space weather specialists are witnessing a major decline in support for model improvement and new model development. Continued support is critical to developing models that are useful for operational forecasts, focused primarily on addressing operational needs and prepared with the goal of making the transition from the research environment to operational service. Further, model development aimed at improving operational forecasts requires a dedicated effort focused on validation and verification. Finally, the pursuit of models that are meant to be more than just science tools is most effective when the end purpose is usefulness in operations. This in turn requires a close working relationship between the end users of space weather forecasts and the research community.

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114 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY FIGURE 4.11  WSA-Enlil simulation of solar wind transient associated with Galaxy 15 failure in April 2010. Solar wind den- sity is indicated by color in the heliospheric equatorial plane, and a coronal mass ejection approaching Earth is shown by the three-dimensional white structure. This ejecta drives a moderate interplanetary shock with a speed of >900 km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field lines are shown by red lines. SOURCE: Courtesy of Dusan Odstrcil, George Mason University. Figure 4-11 replaced From an operational perspective, it is clear that models are essential to predict the state of the system, to specify the current conditions, and to provide information at locations not served by sensors (see Fig- ure 4.11). Recent results of “metric challenges”18 and validation efforts demonstrate that models must be improved in order to meet the demands of both now-casting and forecasting. Although substantial progress has been made over the past decade in understanding the fundamental physics of space weather, leading to better physics-based, integrated models of the dynamic space environment, users can benefit from this improved understanding only if it is incorporated in operationally useful forecast tools. Transitioning to 18 Acquiring quantitative metrics-based knowledge about the performance of various space physics modeling approaches is central for the space weather community. Quantification of the performance helps the users of the modeling products to better understand the capabilities of the models and to choose the approach that best suits their specific needs. See A. Pulkkinen, M. Kuznetsova, A. Ridley, J. Raeder, A. Vapirev, D. Weimer, R.S. Weigel, M. Wiltberger, G. Millward, L. Rastätter, M. Hesse, H.J. Singer, and A. Chulaki, Geospace Environment Modeling 2008-2009 Challenge: Ground magnetic field perturbations, Space Weather 9:S02004, doi:10.1029/2010SW000600, 2011.

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RECOMMENDATIONS 115 operations requires time, resources, a dedicated effort, and a mind-set different from that brought to the problem by the science community. The survey committee concluded that a national, multifaceted program is needed to transition research to operations more effectively by fully leveraging labor from different agencies, universities, and indus- try and by avoiding duplication of effort. Such a program could coordinate the development of models across agencies, including advance planning for developing and coupling large-scale models. The survey committee further concluded that each operations agency should develop the appropriate processes and funding opportunities to facilitate model transition to operations, which must include validation and estab- lishment of metrics and skill scores that reflect operational needs. To a large extent, the value of research and operational codes can be gauged by whether end-user needs are being met. The survey committee concluded that further efforts are needed to better identify what these needs currently are and to anticipate what they will be in the future. It is also important for NOAA to maintain a level of research expertise needed to work together with its partners, to provide professional forecasts and products, to define requirements, to understand possibilities for supporting customer needs, and to make wise and cost-effective choices about new models and data to support space weather customers. On a broader level, the survey committee concluded that distinct funding lines for basic space phys- ics research and for space weather specification and forecasting need to be identified and/or developed. This will require maintaining and growing the research programs at NSF, NASA, AFOSR, and ONR, and it will provide a more effective transition from basic research to space weather forecasting applications. Accordingly, the survey committee recommends: • [A2.4] NOAA should establish a space weather research program to effectively transition research to operations. • [A2.5] Distinct funding lines for basic space physics research and for space weather specification and forecasting should be developed and maintained.