SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS

A Science for a Technological Society

Committee on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics)

Space Studies Board

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

                     OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

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Committee on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) Space Studies Board Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS  500 Fifth Street, NW  Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH06CE15B between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Grant AGS-1050550 between the National Academy of Sci- ences and the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-3: 978-0-309-16428-3 International Standard Book Number-0: 0-309-16428-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2013940083 Cover: Insets, from the top: Solar Dynamics Observatory, full-disk multiwavelength extreme ultraviolet image of the Sun (NASA/GSFC/AIA); depiction of a coronal mass ejection and Earth’s magnetosphere (Steele Hill/NASA); Advanced Modular Incoherent Scatter Radars at Resolute Bay (Craig Heinselman, EISCAT); ultraviolet image of the southern polar region of Saturn with its aurora (here shown inverted) from the Hubble Space Telescope (NASA/ESA/J. Clarke, Boston University/Z. Levay, STScI); depiction of the regions of the heliosphere (NASA); and bow shock around the star LL Orionis (NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA). Background images: View from the International Space Station of the Midwestern United States and the aurora borealis (NASA). Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-242 or (202) 334-3133; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.nationalacademies.org

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OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD AND THE AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD Assessment of a Plan for U.S. Participation in Euclid (Board on Physics and Astronomy [BPA] with Space Studies Board [SSB], 2012) Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Spacecraft Missions to Icy Solar System Bodies (SSB, 2012) Continuing Kepler’s Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command’s Astrodynamics Standards (Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2012) Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Midterm Assessment of NASA’s Implementation of the Decadal Survey (SSB, 2012) The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2012) NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities: Restoring NASA’s Technological Edge and Paving the Way for a New Era in Space (ASEB, 2012) NASA’s Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus (Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, 2012) Recapturing NASA’s Aeronautics Flight Research Capabilities (ASEB, 2012) Report of the Panel on Implementing Recommendations from the New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey (BPA and SSB, 2012) Reusable Booster System: Review and Assessment (ASEB, 2012) Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation (SSB, 2012) Assessment of Impediments to Interagency Collaboration on Space and Earth Science Missions (SSB, 2011) An Interim Report on NASA’s Draft Space Technology Roadmaps (ASEB, 2011) Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (ASEB, 2011) Panel Reports—New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA and SSB, 2011) Preparing for the High Frontier—the Role and Training of NASA Astronauts in the Post-Space Shuttle Era (ASEB, 2011) Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era (SSB with ASEB, 2011) Sharing the Adventure with the Public—The Value and Excitement of “Grand Questions” of Space Science and Exploration: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2011) Summary of the Workshop to Identify Gaps and Possible Directions for NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (ASEB, 2011) Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 (SSB, 2011) Advancing Aeronautical Safety: A Review of NASA’s Aviation Safety-Related Research Programs (ASEB, 2010) Capabilities for the Future: An Assessment of NASA Laboratories for Basic Research (Laboratory Assessments Board with SSB and ASEB, 2010) Controlling Cost Growth of NASA Earth and Space Science Missions (SSB, 2010) Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth-Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies (SSB with ASEB, 2010) An Enabling Foundation for NASA’s Space and Earth Science Missions (SSB, 2010) Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era of Space Exploration: An Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2010) New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA and SSB, 2010) Revitalizing NASA’s Suborbital Program: Advancing Science, Driving Innovation, and Developing a Workforce (SSB, 2010) Limited copies of SSB reports are available free of charge from Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-4777/ssb@nas.edu www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html iv

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COMMITTEE ON A DECADAL STRATEGY FOR SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS (HELIOPHYSICS) DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado, Boulder, Chair THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN, University of Michigan, Vice Chair BRIAN J. ANDERSON, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering JAMES F. DRAKE, JR., University of Maryland, College Park LENNARD A. FISK, University of Michigan MARVIN A. GELLER, Stony Brook University SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research MICHAEL HESSE, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center J. TODD HOEKSEMA,* Stanford University MARY K. HUDSON,* Dartmouth College DAVID L. HYSELL, Cornell University THOMAS J. IMMEL, University of California, Berkeley JUSTIN KASPER, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics JUDITH L. LEAN, Naval Research Laboratory RAMON E. LOPEZ, University of Texas, Arlington HOWARD J. SINGER, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center HARLAN E. SPENCE, University of New Hampshire EDWARD C. STONE, California Institute of Technology   *An asterisk indicates additional service on the survey’s Solar Probe Plus Study Group, which was chaired by Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology. v

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PANEL ON ATMOSPHERE-IONOSPHERE-MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS JEFFREY M. FORBES, University of Colorado, Boulder, Chair JAMES H. CLEMMONS, Aerospace Corporation, Vice Chair ODILE de la BEAUJARDIERE, Air Force Research Laboratory JOHN V. EVANS, COMSAT Corporation (retired) RODERICK A. HEELIS,* University of Texas, Dallas THOMAS J. IMMEL, University of California, Berkeley JANET U. KOZYRA, University of Michigan WILLIAM LOTKO, Dartmouth College GANG LU, High Altitude Observatory KRISTINA A. LYNCH, Dartmouth College JENS OBERHEIDE, Clemson University LARRY J. PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory ROBERT F. PFAFF, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center JOSHUA SEMETER, Boston University JEFFREY P. THAYER, University of Colorado, Boulder PANEL ON SOLAR WIND–MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS MICHELLE F. THOMSEN, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Chair MICHAEL WILTBERGER, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Vice Chair JOSEPH BOROVSKY, Los Alamos National Laboratory JOSEPH F. FENNELL, Aerospace Corporation JERRY GOLDSTEIN, Southwest Research Institute JANET C. GREEN, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration DONALD A. GURNETT, University of Iowa LYNN M. KISTLER, University of New Hampshire MICHAEL W. LIEMOHN, University of Michigan ROBYN MILLAN, Dartmouth College DONALD G. MITCHELL, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory TAI D. PHAN, University of California, Berkeley MICHAEL SHAY, University of Delaware HARLAN E. SPENCE, University of New Hampshire RICHARD M. THORNE, University of California, Los Angeles   *An asterisk indicates additional service on the survey’s Solar Probe Plus Study Group, which was chaired by Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology. vi

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PANEL ON SOLAR AND HELIOSPHERIC PHYSICS RICHARD A. MEWALDT, California Institute of Technology, Chair SPIRO K. ANTIOCHOS,* NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Vice Chair TIMOTHY S. BASTIAN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory JOE GIACALONE, University of Arizona GEORGE M. GLOECKLER,* University of Michigan and University of Maryland (emeritus professor) JOHN W. HARVEY,* National Solar Observatory RUSSELL A. HOWARD, Naval Research Laboratory JUSTIN KASPER, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics ROBERT P. LIN,† University of California, Berkeley GLENN M. MASON, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory EBERHARD MOEBIUS, University of New Hampshire MERAV OPHER, Boston University JESPER SCHOU, Stanford University NATHAN A. SCHWADRON, Boston University AMY R. WINEBARGER, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center DANIEL WINTERHALTER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory THOMAS N. WOODS, University of Colorado, Boulder STAFF ARTHUR A. CHARO, Senior Program Officer, Space Studies Board, Study Director ABIGAIL A. SHEFFER, Associate Program Officer, Space Studies Board MAUREEN MELLODY, Program Officer, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board LEWIS B. GROSWALD, Research Associate, Space Studies Board CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor, Space Studies Board DANIELLE PISKORZ, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern LINDA M. WALKER, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board TERRI BAKER, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board (until April 2012) BRUNO SÁNCHEZ-ANDRADE NUÑO, National Academies Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow HEATHER D. SMITH, National Academies Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Space Studies Board, and Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board   *An asterisk indicates additional service on the survey’s Solar Probe Plus Study Group, which was chaired by Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology. †Dr. Lin died on November 17, 2012. vii

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENNEL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chair JOHN KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired), Vice Chair MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University JAMES ANDERSON, Harvard University JAMES BAGIAN, University of Michigan YVONNE C. BRILL,† Aerospace Consultant ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ANDREW B. CHRISTENSEN, Dixie State College of Utah ALAN DRESSLER, The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution THOMAS R. GAVIN, California Institute of Technology HEIDI B. HAMMEL, AURA FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology JOSEPH S. HEZIR, EOP Group, Inc. ANTHONY C. JANETOS, University of Maryland JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE, U.S. Naval War College ROBERT P. LIN,‡ University of California, Berkeley MOLLY K. MACAULEY, Resources for the Future, Inc. JOHN F. MUSTARD, Brown University ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona DAVID N. SPERGEL, Princeton University MEENAKSHI WADHWA, Arizona State University CLIFFORD M. WILL, Washington University THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN, University of Michigan MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer SANDRA WILSON, Financial Assistant  †Dr. Brill died on March 27, 2013. ‡Dr. Lin died on November 17, 2012. viii

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AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD LESTER LYLES, The Lyles Group, Chair AMY L. BUHRIG, Enterprise Technology Strategy, Boeing, Vice Chair ELLA M. ATKINS, University of Michigan INDERJIT CHOPRA, University of Maryland, College Park JOHN-PAUL B. CLARKE, Georgia Institute of Technology RAVI B. DEO, EMBR VIJAY DHIR, University of California, Los Angeles EARL H. DOWELL, Duke University MICA R. ENDSLEY, SA Technologies DAVID GOLDSTON, Harvard University R. JOHN HANSMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN B. HAYHURST, Boeing Company (retired) WILLIAM L. JOHNSON, California Institute of Technology RICHARD KOHRS, Independent Consultant IVETT LEYVA, Air Force Research Laboratory ELAINE S. ORAN, Naval Research Laboratory HELEN R. REED, Texas A&M University ELI RESHOTKO, Case Western Reserve University EDMOND SOLIDAY, United Airlines (retired) MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer SANDRA WILSON, Financial Assistant ix

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Preface Strategic planning activities within NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD) and several National Science Foundation (NSF) divisions draw heavily on reports issued by the National Research Council (NRC), particularly those from the Space Studies Board (SSB). Principal among these SSB inputs is identifi- cation of priority science and missions and facilities in the decadal science strategy surveys. The first true decadal strategy for the field of solar and space physics, The Sun to the Earth—and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics, was published in 2003. That comprehensive study reviewed relevant research and applications activities, listed the key science questions, and recommended specific spacecraft missions and ground-based facilities and programs for the period 2003-2012. Supplemented by several subsequent SSB studies—for example, A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Heliophysics Program (2009); Distributed Arrays of Small Instruments for Solar-Terrestrial Research: Report of a Workshop (2006); Plasma Physics of the Local Cosmos (2004); Exploration of the Outer Heliosphere and the Local Interstellar Medium: A Workshop Report (2004); and The Role of Solar and Space Physics in NASA’s Space Exploration Initiative (2004)—the 2003 survey report provided key guidance for the SMD’s solar and space physics (called heliophysics at NASA) programs and NSF’s related atmospheric and geosciences programs during the first decade of the 21st century. The successful initiation of many of the missions and programs recommended in the preceding studies, combined with important discoveries by a variety of ground- and space-based research activities, dem- onstrated the need for a second decadal survey of solar and space physics. Thus, in March 2010, Edward J. Weiler, NASA’s associate administrator for the SMD, requested that a new decadal strategy survey be initiated (Appendix A). The request was seconded by the leadership of NSF’s Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences. Specific tasks outlined in the request included the following: • An overview of the science and a broad survey of the current state of knowledge in the field, includ- ing a discussion of the relationship between space- and ground-based science research and its connection to other scientific areas; • Determination of the most compelling science challenges that have arisen from recent advances and accomplishments; xi

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xvi ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF MEMBERS OF THE DECADAL SURVEY WORKING GROUPS • Research to Operations/Operations to Research: Michael Hesse, NASA Goddard Space Flight Cen- ter, Co-Lead; Ronald E. Turner, Analytic Services, Inc. (ANSER), Co-Lead; John Allen, NASA Headquarters; Odile de la Beaujardiere, Air Force Research Laboratory; Joe Fennell, The Aerospace Corporation; Tamas Gombosi, University of Michigan; Kelly Hand, Air Force Space Command; Russ Howard, Naval Research Laboratory; Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology; Scott Pugh, Department of Homeland Security; Geoff Reeves, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Pete Riley, Predictive Science, Inc.; Al Ronn, Northrop Grumman Co.; Robert W. Schunk, Utah State University; Howard Singer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Space Weather Prediction Center; and Kent Tobiska, Space Environment Technologies. • Education and Workforce: Cherilynn Morrow, Georgia State University, Co-Lead; Mark Moldwin, University of Michigan, Co-Lead; Bryan Mendez, University of California, Berkeley; James Drake, Univer- sity of Maryland; Nicholas Gross, Boston University; Michael Liemohn, University of Michigan; Ramon Lopez, University of Texas, Arlington; Joshua Semeter, Boston University; Allan Weatherwax, Siena College; and Amy Winebarger, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center.

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and criti- cal comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Vassilis Angelopoulos, University of California, Berkeley, Roger D. Blandford, Stanford University, John C. Foster, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Timothy J. Fuller-Rowell, University of Colorado, William C. Gibson, Southwest Research Institute, John T. Gosling, University of Colorado, Boulder, J. Randy Jokipii, University of Arizona, Charles F. Kennel, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, David Y. Kusnierkiewicz, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, J. Patrick Looney, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Janet G. Luhmann, University of California, Berkeley, William H. Matthaeus, University of Delaware, Atsuhiro Nishida, Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (emeritus professor), Patricia H. Reiff, Rice University, Arthur D. Richmond, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Karel Schrijver, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, A. Thomas Young, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired), and Gary P. Zank, University of California, Riverside. xvii

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xviii ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEWERS Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Martha P. Haynes, Cornell University, and George A. Paulikas, The Aerospace Corporation (retired). Appointed by the NRC, they were respon- sible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents SUMMARY 1 PART I: REPORT FROM THE DECADAL SURVEY COMMITTEE 1 ENABLING DISCOVERY IN SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS 15 Earth’s Dynamic Space Environment, 15 Framing the 2013-2022 Decadal Survey, 17 Key Science Goals for a Decade, 21 Key Science Goal 1, 22 Key Science Goal 2, 25 Key Science Goal 3, 27 Key Science Goal 4, 28 Optimizing a Science Program, 30 The Enabling Foundation, 31 Ground-Based Facilities, 31 Small Space Missions, 32 Moderate-Scale Space Missions, 33 Major Space Missions, 34 Implementation Strategies, 35 Funding Priorities for NASA’s Heliophysics Program, 35 Decision Rules, 35 A Decade of Transformative Science, 37 2 SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: RECENT DISCOVERIES, FUTURE FRONTIERS 38 Scope and Relevance of the Discipline, 38 A Decade of Heliophysics Discovery, 40 The Sun and Heliosphere, 40 xix

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xx CONTENTS Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interactions, 44 Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Interactions, 51 Key Science Challenges, 55 Challenges Related to the Sun and Heliosphere, 55 Challenges Related to Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interactions, 57 Challenges Related to Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Interactions, 61 Rising to the Challenges of the Coming Decade, 65 3 ADDRESSING SOCIETAL NEEDS 67 Impacts of Earth’s Near-Space Environment, 67 The Climate System, 67 Satellite Infrastructure, 68 Ionospheric Variability, Communication, and Navigation, 69 Radiation and Human Space Exploration, 69 Geomagnetic Effects on the Electric Power Grid, 70 Severe Solar Storms, 71 The Challenge of Predicting Space Weather Events, 71 4 RECOMMENDATIONS 75 Research Recommendations, 76 Baseline Priority for NASA and NSF: Complete the Current Program, 76 First Research Recommendation [R1.0], for NASA, NSF, and Other Agencies— Implement the DRIVE Initiative, 77 NASA Mission Lines, 93 Second Research Recommendation [R2.0] for NASA—Accelerate and Expand the Heliophysics Explorer Program, 94 Third Research Recommendation [R3.0] for NASA—Restructure Solar-Terrestrial Probes as a Moderate-Scale, Principal-Investigator-led Line, 96 Fourth Research Recommendation [R4.0] for NASA—Implement a Large Living With a Star Mission, 106 Applications Recommendations: Space Weather and Space Climatology, 109 First Applications Recommendation [A1.0]—Recharter the National Space Weather Program, 111 Benefits of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research Interplay, 112 Second Applications Recommendation [A2.0]—Work in a Multiagency Partnership to Achieve Continuity of Solar and Solar Wind Observations, 112 Models and the Transition of Research to Operations, 113 5 NSF PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION 116 Ground-Based Observations, 116 Advanced Technology Solar Telescope, 117 Midscale Funding Line, 117 Candidates for a Midscale Line, 118 CubeSats, 120 Education, 120

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CONTENTS xxi Faculty and Curriculum Development, 120 Undergraduate and Graduate Training, 120 Multidisciplinary Research, 121 Funding Cross-Cutting Science, 121 Heliophysics Science Centers, 121 Solar and Space Physics at NSF, 122 International Collaborations, 122 6 NASA PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION 124 The NASA Heliophysics Core Program, 124 Decision Rules and Augmentation Priorities, 130 Recommended Decision Rules, 131 Recommended Augmentation Priorities, 134 International Collaborations, 134 7 SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATOLOGY: A VISION FOR FUTURE CAPABILITIES 135 Motivation—Economic and Societal Value, 135 Strengthening the National Capability for Obtaining Space Weather and Climate Information, 138 Current National Space Weather Program, 138 Research Sources of Space Weather Information, 139 A Robust Space Weather and Climatology Program, 140 Core Elements, 140 New Elements, 140 An Illustrative Scenario, 141 Implementation Concept, 143 PART II: REPORTS TO THE SURVEY COMMITTEE FROM THE DISCIPLINE PANELS 8 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON ATMOSPHERE-IONOSPHERE-MAGNETOSPHERE 149 INTERACTIONS 8.1 Summary of AIMI Science Priorities and Imperatives for the 2013-2022 Decade, 149 8.1.1 Spaceflight Missions, 150 8.1.2 Explorers, Suborbital, and Other Platforms, 151 8.1.3 Ground-Based Facilities, 151 8.1.4 Theory and Modeling, 152 8.1.5 Enabling Capabilities, 153 8.2 Motivations for Study of Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Interactions, 153 8.3 Significant Accomplishments of the Previous Decade, 155 8.3.1 Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling, 156 8.3.2 Solar-AIM Coupling, 158 8.3.3 Meteorology-AIM Coupling, 158 8.3.4 AIM Coupling and Global Change, 159 8.3.5 International Programs, 162 8.3.6 Current and Future Programs, 162

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xxii CONTENTS 8.4 Science Goals and Priorities for the 2013-2022 Decade, 163 8.4.1 AIMI Science Goal 1. Global Behavior of the Ionosphere-Thermosphere, 164 8.4.2 AIMI Science Goal 2. Meteorological Driving of the IT System, 168 8.4.3 AIMI Science Goal 3. Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling, 172 8.4.4 AIMI Science Goal 4. Plasma-Neutral Coupling in a Magnetic Field, 175 8.4.5 AIMI Science Goal 5. Planetary Change, 178 8.4.6 Science Priorities, 182 8.5 Implementation Strategies and Enabling Capabilities, 182 8.5.1 Spaceflight Missions, 183 8.5.2 Explorers, Suborbital, and Other Platforms, 193 8.5.3 Ground-Based Facilities, 195 8.5.4 Theory and Modeling, 202 8.5.5 Enabling Capabilities, 202 9 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON SOLAR WIND-MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS 209 9.1 Summary of SWMI Science Priorities and Imperatives, 209 9.1.1 Missions, 211 9.1.2 DRIVE-Related Actions, 211 9.1.3 Space Weather, 212 9.2 Introduction to SWMI Science, 212 9.2.1 What Is the Magnetosphere?, 212 9.3 Significant Accomplishments of the Previous Decade, 215 9.3.1 Scientific Progression, 215 9.3.2 Regions, 216 9.3.3 Processes, 217 9.3.4 Linkages, 219 9.3.5 System Dynamics, 220 9.3.6 Comparative Magnetospheres, 223 9.4 Science Goals for the Coming Decade, 223 9.4.1 Regions, 225 9.4.2 Universal Processes, 230 9.4.3 System Dynamics, 233 9.4.4 Comparative Magnetospheres, 234 9.4.5 Summary, 236 9.5 Prioritized Imperatives, 237 9.5.1 Introduction, 237 9.5.2 Missions, 239 9.5.3 DRIVE-Related Actions, 252 9.5.4 Space Weather, 256 9.5.5 Prioritization, 257 9.6 Connections to Other Disciplines, 259 9.6.1 Solar and Heliospheric Physics, 259 9.6.2 Atmosphere and Ionosphere, 260 9.6.3 Planetary Science, 260 9.6.4 Physics and Astrophysics, 260 9.6.5 Complex Nonlinear System Studies, 260

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CONTENTS xxiii 10 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON SOLAR AND HELIOSPHERIC PHYSICS 261 10.1 Physics of the Sun and Heliosphere—Major Science Goals, 261 10.2 Solar and Heliospheric Physics Imperatives, 263 10.2.1 Prioritized Imperatives for NASA, 263 10.2.2 Prioritized Imperatives for NSF, 265 10.2.3 Prioritized Multiagency Imperatives, 265 10.3 Significant Accomplishments During the Previous Decade, 266 10.3.1 Determining How the Sun Generates the Quasi-cyclical Variable Magnetic Field That Extends Throughout the Heliosphere, 266 10.3.2 Determining How the Sun’s Magnetism Creates Its Dynamic Atmosphere, 268 10.3.3 Determining How Magnetic Energy Is Stored and Explosively Released, 274 10.3.4 Discovering How the Sun Interacts with the Local Galactic Medium and Protects Earth, 280 10.4 Solar and Heliospheric Objectives for the Coming Decade, 283 10.4.1 Determine How the Sun Generates the Quasi-cyclical Variable Magnetic Field That Extends Throughout the Heliosphere, 283 10.4.2 Determine How the Sun’s Magnetism Creates Its Dynamic Atmosphere, 285 10.4.3 Determine How Magnetic Energy Is Stored and Explosively Released, 286 10.4.4 Discover How the Sun Interacts with the Local Galactic Medium and Protects Earth, 288 10.4.5 Contributions of the SHP Panel’s Program to Achieving the Decadal Survey’s Key Science Goals, 291 10.4.6 Goals for the Ongoing Program and Missions in Development, 291 10.4.7 Goals for Ground-Based Facilities, 297 10.5 Imperatives for the Health and Progress of Solar and Heliospheric Physics, 298 10.5.1 NASA Missions in Development, 299 10.5.2 New Imperatives for NASA, 299 10.5.3 Summary of NASA-Related Imperatives Developed by the Panel on Solar and Heliospheric Physics, 311 10.5.4 NSF-Related Initiatives, 315 10.5.5 Multiagency Imperatives, 320 10.6 Connections to Other Disciplines, 323 10.6.1 Earth Science and Climate Change, 323 10.6.2 Astrophysics, 324 10.6.3 Comparative Planetology and Astrospheres, 324 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task and Work Plan 327 B Instrumentation, Data Systems, and Technology 332 C Toward a Diversified, Distributed Sensor Deployment Strategy 342 D Education and Workforce Issues in Solar and Space Physics 351 E Mission Development and Assessment Process 365 F Committee, Panels, and Staff Biographical Information 380 G Acronyms 401 H Request for Information from the Community 409 I List of Responses to Request for Information 412

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This report is dedicated to the memory of ROBERT P. LIN (1942-2012), a pioneering space scientist and a beloved colleague.

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