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Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations (2011)
Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences (BBCSS)

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. "11 Structuring Accountability Systems in Organizations: Key Trade-Offs and Critical Unknowns--Philip E. Tetlock and Barbara A. Mellers." Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2011.

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Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations

Simonson, I., and B. M. Staw. 1992. Deescalation strategies: A comparison of techniques for reducing commitment to losing courses of action. Journal of Applied Psychology 77(4):419–426.

Suskind, R. 2006. The one-percent doctrine: Deep inside America’s pursuit of its enemies since 9/11. New York: Simon and Schuster.

Taleb, N. N. 2007. The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.

Tetlock, P. E. 1985. Accountability: The neglected social context of judgment and choice. In B. Staw and L. Cummings, eds., Research in organizational behavior, vol. 7 (pp. 297–332). Greenwich, CT: JAI Press. Reprinted in L. Cummings and B. Staw, eds., Research in organizational behavior: Judgment processes. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.

Tetlock, P. E. 1992. The impact of accountability on judgment and choice: Toward a social contingency model. In M. Zanna, ed., Advances in experimental social psychology, vol. 25 (pp. 331-376). New York: Academic Press.

Tetlock, P. E. 2000. Cognitive biases and organizational correctives: Do both disease and cure depend on the ideological beholder? Administrative Science Quarterly 45:293–326.

Tetlock, P. E. 2005. Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Tetlock, P. E., and R. Boettger. 1989. Accountability: A social magnifier of the dilution effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 57(3):388–398.

Tetlock, P. E., and R. Boettger. 1994. Accountability amplifies the status quo effect when change creates victims. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 7:1–23.

Tetlock, P. E., and L. I. Kim. 1987. Accountability and judgment processes in a personality prediction task. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 52(4):700–709.

Tetlock, P. E., and G. Mitchell. 2009. Implicit bias and accountability systems: What must organizations do to prevent discrimination? In B. M. Staw and A. Brief, eds., Research in organizational behavior, vol. 29 (pp. 3–38). New York: Elsevier.

Tetlock, P. E., and F. Vieider, 2011. Accountability, agency, and ideology: Exploring managerial preferences for process versus outcome accountability. Unpublished manuscript, Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania.

Wilson, J. Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What government agencies do and why. New York: Basic Books.

Page
270
Front Matter (R1-R14)
Part I: Introduction (1-2)
1 Analysis in the U.S.Intelligence Community: Missions, Masters, and Methods--Thomas Fingar (3-28)
Part II: Analytic Methods (29-30)
2 Operations Research and Intelligence Analysis--Edward H. Kaplan (31-56)
3 Applications of Game Theory in Support of Intelligence Analysis--Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (57-82)
4 Use of Signal Detection Theory as a Tool for Enhancing Performance and Evaluating Tradecraft in Intelligence Analysis--Gary H. McClelland (83-100)
5 Qualitative Analysis for the Intelligence Community--Kiron K. Skinner (101-114)
Part III: Analysts (115-116)
6 Individual Reasoning--Barbara A. Spellman (117-142)
7 Intuitive Theories of Behavior--Hal R. Arkes and James Kajdasz (143-168)
8 Group Processes in Intelligence Analysis--Reid Hastie (169-196)
9 Social Categorization and Intergroup Dynamics--Catherine H. Tinsley (197-224)
Part IV: Organizations (225-226)
10 Communicating About Analysis--Baruch Fischhoff (227-248)
11 Structuring Accountability Systems in Organizations: Key Trade-Offs and Critical Unknowns--Philip E. Tetlock and Barbara A. Mellers (249-270)
12 Workforce Effectiveness: Acquiring Human Resources and Developing Human Capital--Steve W. J. Kozlowski (271-308)
13 Implementing Change: Organizational Challenges--Amy Zegart (309-330)
Appendix A: Contents List for *Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences* (331-332)
Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Authors and Staff (333-338)