Measuring the Group Quarters Population in the American Community Survey

Interim Report

Panel on Statistical Methods for Measuring the Group Quarters Population in the American Community Survey

Krisztina Marton and Paul R. Voss, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

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Measuring the Group Quarters Population in the American Community Survey Interim Report Panel on Statistical Methods for Measuring the Group Quarters Population in the American Community Survey Krisztina Marton and Paul R. Voss, Editors Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by contract number YA132309CN0089 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Census Bureau. Support for the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (award number SES-0453930). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-18510-3 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-18510-6 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2011). Measuring the Group Quarters Population in the American Community Survey: Interim Report. Panel on Statistical Methods for Measuring the Group Quarters Population in the American Community Survey, Krisztina Marton and Paul R. Voss, Editors. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. ii

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org iii

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PANEL ON STATISTICAL METHODS FOR MEASURING THE GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION IN THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY PAUL R. VOSS (Chair), Odum Institute for Research in Social Science, University of North Carolina WILLIAM A.V. CLARK, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles SUSAN COPELLA, Pennsylvania State Data Center, Pennsylvania State University DAVID DOLSON, Statistics Canada, Ottawa RALPH FOLSOM, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina RACHEL HARTER, National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago STEVEN HEERINGA, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan JOSEPH SALVO, New York City Department of City Planning RICHARD VALLIANT, Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland and Survey Research Center, University of Michigan KRISZTINA MARTON, Study Director AGNES E. GASKIN, Administrative Assistant v

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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2010-2011 LAWRENCE D. BROWN (Chair), Department of Statistics, University of Pennsylvania JOHN M. ABOWD, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University ALICA CARRIQUIRY, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University WILLIAM DuMOUCHEL, Phase Forward, Inc., Waltham, Massachusetts V. JOSEPH HOTZ, Department of Economics, Duke University MICHAEL HOUT, Department of Sociology, University of California, Berkeley KAREN KAFADAR, Department of Statistics, Indiana University SALLIE KELLER, Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, DC LISA LYNCH, Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University SALLY C. MORTON, Department of Biostatistics, University of Pittsburgh JOSEPH NEWHOUSE, Division of Health Policy Research and Education, Harvard University SAMUEL H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania HAL STERN, Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine ROGER TOURANGEAU, Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland, and Survey Research Center, University of Michigan ALAN ZASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director vi

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Acknowledgments I am very pleased to see this interim report of The Panel on Statistical Methods for Measuring the Group Quarters Population in the American Community Survey (ACS) come together so extraordinarily well after just four meetings of a group of talented individuals, many of whom did not know one another just eight busy months ago. I wish to thank the many people who have assisted our work and contributed to the report. The ACS staff of the U.S. Census Bureau, under the leadership of Daniel Weinberg (assistant director for decennial census and American Community Survey) and Susan Schechter (formerly chief of the ACS Office), have been generous in providing information to the panel and addressing our inquiries. The communication between the panel and the Census Bureau was greatly facilitated by lead technical liaison, Alfredo Navarro, who was a pleasure to work with; Philip Gbur served as contracting officer, and was always accessible. A number of Census Bureau staff made very informative presentations and provided useful materials to the panel, including Mark Asiala, Michael Beaghen, Scott Boggess, Edward Castro, Annetta Smith Clark, Sandy Clark, Steven Hefter, Todd Hughes, Sharon Stern, Amy Symens Smith, Victoria Velkoff, and David Whitford. We also sought input on data collected about major segments of the group quarters population from experts in other agencies in the federal statistical system. In particular, William Sabol from the Bureau of Justice Statistics gave an overview of that agency’s portfolio of data series on the correctional population. We also benefited from a discussion with Lauren Harris-Kojetin from the National Center for Health Statistics about health care facilities. At our first meeting in March 2010, the panel formed two working groups to pursue specific tasks between meetings, and our work to date has been accomplished with few disagreements and with a keen sense of remaining within the boundaries of our charge from the Census Bureau and delivering the interim report on schedule. This could not have happened without the steady guidance and excellent writing talents of our study director, Krisztina Marton, and the strong support of other CNSTAT staff. We extend our sincere appreciation to Constance Citro, CNSTAT Director, for her always deeply knowledgeable guidance when questions of procedure arose or when advice was requested. We thank CNSTAT senior program officers Daniel Cork and Michael Cohen for taking time from their own busy schedules to attend the panel’s meetings and provide occasional counsel. We also thank Christine McShane for the expert technical editing of the draft report, and Agnes Gaskin for handling a variety of logistical matters so capably. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for vii

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their review of this report: Alicia L. Carriquiry, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University; John L. Czajka, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, DC; David Hubble, Westat, Inc., Rockville, MD; Bruce D. Spencer, Department of Statistics, Northwestern University; and Preston Jay Waite, Consultant, Logan, UT. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Richard A. Kulka, Abt Associates, Inc., Durham, NC and Charles F. Manski, Department of Economics, Northwestern University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution. Finally, we recognize the many federal agencies that support the Committee on National Statistics directly and through a grant from the National Science Foundation. Without their support and their commitment to improving the national statistical system, the committee work that is the basis of this report would not have been possible. Paul R. Voss, Chair Panel on Statistical Methods for Measuring the Group Quarters Population in the American Community Survey viii

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Contents Executive Summary 1 1 Introduction 3 Panel Charge 3 Background 5 Overview of the Interim Report 8 2 Sampling Frame Development and Maintenance 9 Opportunities for Increased Collaboration to Improve 10 the GQ Inventory Integrating Updates from Field Representatives 12 Scope of Coverage 12 Sample Redesign Options 17 3 Sample Allocation and Selection 19 State-Level Allocation 20 Subsampling Within GQ Facilities 21 4 Weighting and Estimation 22 Weighting Procedures 22 PEP Controls and Alternatives 22 Estimates of the GQ Population in Small Areas 24 Publication of Data Products 26 5 Future Work 27 References 28 APPENDIXES A Panel Charge 30 B Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff 31 ix

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