National Academies Press: OpenBook
« Previous: Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and Participants
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Abstracts of Background Papers." National Research Council. 2011. Sociocultural Data to Accomplish Department of Defense Missions: Toward a Unified Social Framework: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13077.
×

B
Abstracts of Background Papers

THE IMPORTANCE OF INTERPRETATION

Mark Bevir


This briefing paper describes a broad consensus in current philosophy of social science and then considers the implications of this consensus for the ways one might think about data, knowledge, and policy making.

Since the late 20th century, philosophy has been dominated by meaning holism. Holists believe that the meaning of a sentence or belief depends on the wider language game or web of beliefs of which it is a part. This holism has given rise to comparative epistemology, constructivist ontology, and contextualizing historical explanations. Current philosophy thus supports a view of the social sciences as an attempt to interpret other people’s interpretations of the world.

Interpretive social science encourages certain views of data and knowledge. First, all kinds of techniques generate valid data, and ethnographic and historical studies are important supplements to other data. Second, models, frameworks, and correlations are reifications, so one should consider if they need to be disaggregated. Third, correlations, models, and frameworks are just more data, not explanations, and—to explain such data—one has to tell stories. An interpretive social science suggests lessons for policy makers. First, practitioners should take an eclectic approach to data and remember that all data are partial and provisional. Second, practitioners should remain aware of the diversity of beliefs and actions as well as the historical and cultural contexts that influence them.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Abstracts of Background Papers." National Research Council. 2011. Sociocultural Data to Accomplish Department of Defense Missions: Toward a Unified Social Framework: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13077.
×

Finally, practitioners should consider multiple stories that reveal new aspects of situations.

WHY MODELS DON’T FORECAST

Laura A. McNamara


The title of this paper, “Why Models Don’t Forecast,” has a deceptively simple answer: models don’t forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies.

I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation and includes the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision-making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, are a critical problem for the organizations that promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

A PERSPECTIVE ON MODELING, DATA, AND KNOWLEDGE

Robert G. Sargent


This paper presents and discusses the problem-solving methodology used in operations research. The advantages presented using this methodology include (1) the development of a problem statement, (2) the construction and use of a causal mathematical model based on system knowledge, and (3) the data requirements determined from the steps of the methodology. Also discussed is how this methodology differs from the method of first collecting significant amounts of data and then attempting to develop models from that data.

Two major types of models, causal and empirical, are compared and discussed; this includes the strengths and weaknesses of each type. This paper also discusses why causal models are preferred, the importance of understanding that causal models contain system relationships and empirical models contain data relationships, and the different kinds of graphical and mathematical models for each model type. Different

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Abstracts of Background Papers." National Research Council. 2011. Sociocultural Data to Accomplish Department of Defense Missions: Toward a Unified Social Framework: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13077.
×

kinds of data and measurement scales for data are also described. System knowledge, needed for developing causal models, is discussed and depicted in a table containing different levels of system knowledge and types of system knowledge.

The modeling process and obstacles that may arise during this process are described. The importance of validation of models, model solutions, and model theories is stressed. Finally, the use of domain experts in problem solving is discussed, including why it is an important approach for solving social system problems.

THE DANGERS OF RUSHING TO DATA: CONSTRAINTS ON DATA TYPES AND TARGETS IN COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL MODELING AND SIMULATION

Jessica Glicken Turnley


By the time most modeling projects address data, the project team has made significant decisions in the course of the project that determine the type of data they need and constrain which part of a comprehensive picture they will provide. I argue that it is not possible to create, a priori with data, a comprehensive picture of some area of interest.

A model is not all things and all relations in the target domain but a selection from them. That selection is made by the modeling team which constructs the model. By exercising this selection process, the team acts as sort of a prism, controlling which part of the target domain one sees and how one sees it. The model as artifact, once it is constructed, embodies this prism.

This gives great power to the people involved in the modeling process. I have parsed that process into different social roles, each of which contributes differently: the questioner, who poses the question that initiates the process and establishes the model’s purpose; the user, who exercises the model in a particular sociotechnical environment; a disciplinary or theoretical expert who identifies the elements to include in the model and the relationships among them; the data provider; and the model builder, who captures relevant theory and data in the chosen medium.

A model is much more than an artifact or bucket into which data can be dumped. It actually is a process of creating a particular way of looking at the world. It is like Karl Weick’s sense making, a process that “structures the unknown,” using theory to choose elements of the target domain that are relevant to a particular problem. Rushing too quickly to the data question is likely to lead the team to the dangerous and impossible request to collect everything or to collect the wrong things. And finally, by definition, no model will provide a comprehensive picture of anything. In fact, the creative power of models may actually cause people to revise the picture through the very act of constructing the analytic tool.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Abstracts of Background Papers." National Research Council. 2011. Sociocultural Data to Accomplish Department of Defense Missions: Toward a Unified Social Framework: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13077.
×

This page intentionally left blank.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Abstracts of Background Papers." National Research Council. 2011. Sociocultural Data to Accomplish Department of Defense Missions: Toward a Unified Social Framework: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13077.
×
Page 105
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Abstracts of Background Papers." National Research Council. 2011. Sociocultural Data to Accomplish Department of Defense Missions: Toward a Unified Social Framework: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13077.
×
Page 106
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Abstracts of Background Papers." National Research Council. 2011. Sociocultural Data to Accomplish Department of Defense Missions: Toward a Unified Social Framework: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13077.
×
Page 107
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Abstracts of Background Papers." National Research Council. 2011. Sociocultural Data to Accomplish Department of Defense Missions: Toward a Unified Social Framework: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13077.
×
Page 108
Sociocultural Data to Accomplish Department of Defense Missions: Toward a Unified Social Framework: Workshop Summary Get This Book
×
Buy Paperback | $42.00 Buy Ebook | $33.99
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

Sociocultural Data to Accomplish Department of Defense Missions: Toward a Unified Social Framework summarizes presentations and discussions that took place on August 16-17, 2010, at a National Research Council public workshop sponsored by the Office of Naval Research. The workshop addressed the variables and complex interaction of social and cultural factors that influence human behavior, focusing on potential applications to the full spectrum of military operations.

The workshop's keynote address by Major General Michael T. Flynn, U.S. Army, provided critical context about the cultural situation and needs of the military operating in Afghanistan. Additional presentations were divided into four panels to address the diverse missions encountered by the U.S. military worldwide. The workshop concluded with a final panel to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of different methods of acquiring and using relevant data and knowledge to accomplish these missions. The panel topics and presenters are listed below:

  1. Conflict Is Local: Mapping the Sociocultural Terrain David Kennedy, Hsinchun Chen, and Kerry Patton
  2. Bridging Sociocultural Gaps in Cooperative Relationships Robert Rubinstein, Alan Fiske, and Donal Carbaugh
  3. Building Partner Capacity with Sociocultural Awareness Jeffrey Sanchez-Burks and Shinobu Kitayama
  4. The Art of Sociocultural Persuasion Jeanne Brett, James Dillard, and Brant R. Burleson
  5. Tools, Methods, Frameworks, and Models Mark Bevir, Laura A. McNamara, Robert G. Sargent, and Jessica Glicken Turnley
  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!