time-frames of 0-5 years, 6-20 years, and the overall 20-year total. In summary, the annualized cost for the first 5 years of the program for national earthquake resilience is $306.5 million/year.


Much of the finer detail used as the basis for task costing is presented in Appendix E. The following is summary information (using 2009$) to assist with reading the cost estimates presented in Table 4.1.

Task 1—Physics of Earthquake Processes

Basic research on the physics of earthquake processes is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) under NEHRP. In recent fiscal years, neither agency has explicitly summarized its expenditures in this particular task area, but current investments can be estimated from reported agency budgets.

• Significant support by NSF for research on the physics of earthquake processes is channeled through the International Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) (total budget of $12.4 million in FY2010), the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) ($3.0 million), and EarthScope ($25.0 million), as well as through NSF’s Division of Earth Sciences (EAR) core program in geophysics. At least $15 million of these FY2010 funds supported basic research on earthquake physics.

• The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program expended a total of $13 million on earthquake physics research in FY2010; this amount included $10.6 million for its internal program and $2.4 million for its external programs.

Therefore, FY2010 NEHRP expenditures in support of Task 1 totaled more than $27 million/year, when summed over NSF and USGS. Many of the tasks outlined in this report require a better understanding of earthquake physics. Basic research in this area is proceeding vigorously, as described in Chapter 3, and current levels on investment should be maintained for at least the next 5 years, which implies a minimum 5-year budget of ~$135 million. Following this initial investment, we estimate average annual expenditure of ~$30 million/year.

Task 2—Advanced National Seismic System

• The capitalization cost for the full ANSS is estimated at $175 million. Prior to ARRA and through FY2009, USGS will have invested about

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