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2 Biofuel Supply Chain T he biofuel supply chain involves producing biomass feedstock; harvesting, collecting, storing, and transporting the feedstock to the bioreﬁnery; converting the biomass to fuel at the bioreﬁnery; distributing biofuels to end users; and, ﬁnally, using the fuel. Biomass is procured from diverse environments, each associated with different economic costs for production and collection. These differing conditions contribute to a range of economic costs for feedstocks and environmental effects. Each subsequent stage of biofuel production and use could incur positive or negative effects on the economics of producing biofuels, the economic effects on other sectors, and the environment. This chapter examines the supply chains of food-based biofuels that are produced and nonfood-based biofuels that are likely to be produced in the United States within the 2022 timeline as established by the Renewable Fuel Standard amended by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (RFS2). Other feedstocks and conversion technologies that are not likely to be deployed by 2022 also are discussed. FOOD-BASED BIOFUELS Corn-Grain Biofuels Feedstock As of 2010, the primary feedstock for biofuel produced and consumed in the United States was corn grain. The majority of corn acreage is found in the Midwest (Figure 2-1). Corn yield in the United States has been increasing over recent decades (Cassman and Liska, 2007). The national average reached 165 bushels per acre in 2009 and was 156 bushels per acre in 2010. An advantage of grains as biofuel feedstock is that they are relatively dense and efﬁcient to store and transport; have well-established production, harvest, storage, and transport supply chains or systems; and are commodity crops with well-established grades and standards that facilitate marketing and trading. 29
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30 RENEWABLE FUEL STANDARD FIGURE 2-1 Distribution of planted corn acres in the United States in 2008. SOURCE: USDA-ERS (2010). Conversion Starch from grains can be converted gure 2 eps F to ethanol by biochemical pathways. Most corn is dry milled—that is, the grain is bitmapped, un and then the starch from the grain is ground to a meal, ditable hydrolyzed by enzymes to glucose. The 6-carbon 3 R01 sugars are then fermented to ethanol by natural yeast and bacteria. The fermented mash is separated into ethanol and residue by distillation (Figure 2-2). The residue can be marketed wet as a dairy or cattle feedstuff or as dried distillers grain with solubles (DDGS) as a dairy, cattle, swine, and poultry feedstuff (Schwietzke et al., 2008). The theoretical yield of converting corn starch to ethanol is 112 gal- lons per dry ton (Patzek, 2006). A survey of U.S. ethanol plants conducted in 2008 reported average ethanol yield of 100 gallons per dry ton (Mueller, 2010). Products and Coproducts DDGS is a coproduct of grain ethanol production. Starch from grains is fermented to ethanol and the remaining protein, oil, yeast, minerals, and ﬁber form the coproduct DDGS, which is mostly used as an animal feedstuff (Nichols et al., 2006). For every bushel of corn grain used for ethanol production, about one-third comes out as DDGS, one-third as ethanol, and one-third as carbon dioxide (CO2). The wet-mill process also produces corn oil and high-fructose corn syrup as coproducts. Distribution and Use Many biofuels, including ethanol, are more soluble in water than petroleum-based fuels, requiring biofuels to be stored and handled more carefully to avoid water contamination. If
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31 BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN FIGURE 2-2 Processing steps for converting corn grain to ethanol. SOURCE: Schwietzke et al. (2008). Reprinted with permission from IEA Bioenergy. ethanol picks up water, it might not meet the fuel-ethanol speciﬁcations because the fraction of water exceeds the allowable amount. For that reason and because it is highly corrosive, ethanol cannot be transported in existing pipelines used for petroleum and is distributed Figure 2 2 eps by rail cars, barges, and trucks in the United States (USDA-AMS, 2007). tmapped u edi able Ethanol has been used as a gasoline blending component or substitute for many years (see Chapter 1). It is almost exclusively R01935 outside a normal petroleum reﬁnery and produced shipped to the reﬁner or distributor for blending into ﬁnished gasoline. The industry has developed stringent speciﬁcations for ethanol quality, such as ASTM D4806, so that all batches of ethanol can be treated equally and the ﬁnal user is assured of getting a product that is ﬁt for its desired purpose. All ethanol that meets this speciﬁcation can be assumed to have the same performance as a fuel, regardless of its source. The reﬁner or blender does not have to be concerned about the source of the ethanol or how it was transported to the facility as long as it meets the speciﬁcations when it arrives. Ethanol has a high octane value,1 a beneﬁcial characteristic, but it requires petroleum- reﬁnery operational adjustments that reduce the value of the additional octane. It also has a high blending Reid vapor pressure (RVP)2; RVP is about 20 pounds per square inch (psi; or 136,895 Pascal) at 10-percent ethanol and even higher at lower concentrations. This high RVP can cause drivability problems for the fuel, namely vapor locking,3 even if all other speciﬁcations are met. Therefore, the petroleum reﬁner has to reduce the amount of light hydrocarbons, such as butanes and hexanes, blended into gasoline. If ethanol is used as a gasoline substitute, there will be a reduction in the amount of hydrogen produced by the naphtha reformer in a standard petroleum reﬁnery. Hy- drogen is a valuable coproduct of petroleum reﬁning because it is used in upgrading hydrocarbons to more valuable products. This loss in hydrogen production would have to be compensated with either an increase in hydrogen production from within the reﬁnery or an increase in purchased hydrogen produced via steam-methane reform- ing. Reﬁners that have access to a hydrogen pipeline system will usually just increase hydrogen purchases. Those facilities without access to merchant hydrogen would have 1 Octane value is a measure of the maximum compression ratio at which a particular fuel can be used in an engine without some fuel and air mixture self-igniting or so-called “engine knocking.” 2 Reid vapor pressure is a measure of volatility. 3 Vapor locking is the interruption of ﬂow of fuel in an internal-combustion engine caused by vapor.
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32 RENEWABLE FUEL STANDARD to modify their operations to maintain or increase hydrogen availability. This modiﬁca- tion can sometimes be achieved by increasing reformer severity, but as petroleum-based gasoline demand declines and diesel demand increases, the reﬁnery ultimately would need to build a hydrogen plant. Hydrogen production from methane releases CO2 as a byproduct. This additional CO2 production offsets some of the CO2 reduction from using the biofuels.4 Status as of 2010 The amount of corn used for corn-grain ethanol has been increasing since 2000, and the percentage of U.S. corn production used for fuel ethanol increased dramatically from 2005 to 2009 (Figure 2-3). In 2010, about 40 percent of corn yield was used to produce 13.2 billion gallons of ethanol (USDA-NASS, 2010; RFA, 2011b). Given that RFS2 consumption mandate for conventional ethanol is 15 billion gallons per year from 2015 to 2022, the mandate can be achieved with a small increase in corn grain for ethanol. The number of corn-grain ethanol bioreﬁneries in the United States and the total ca- pacity to produce ethanol has been increasing rapidly since 2002 (Figure 2-4). The average capacity build rate of ethanol bioreﬁneries from 2001 to 2009 was about 25 percent with a substantial expansion in 2006 and 2007 (RFA, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010). In January 2011, there were about 200 bioreﬁneries (Figure 2-5) that converted corn starch into ethanol and had a combined installed (also known as nameplate) capacity5 of 14.1 billion gallons of ethanol per year (RFA, 2011a). A list of food-based ethanol reﬁneries is available in Appendix H. Motor gasoline consumption in the United States was about 9 million barrels per day (or 138 billion gallons per year) in the same period (EIA, 2010). As of 2010, gasoline for light-duty vehicles in the United States was sold mostly as 90-percent gasoline blended with 10-percent ethanol by volume (E10). In October 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protec- tion Agency (EPA) approved a waiver that allows the use of E15 in model year 2007 or newer light-duty vehicles. In January 2011, EPA extended the waiver to model year 2001 to 2006 light-duty vehicles (EPA, 2011). Despite the regulatory change, E15 had not been implemented at the time this report was written because gasoline retailers would have to install new tanks and pumps to accommodate the blend and no reliable system had been developed to prevent misfueling of older vehicles. Some ethanol is sold as E85 blend for use in ﬂex-fuel vehicles. As of 2010, there were about 2,000 E85 stations in the United States. Corn starch also can be converted to biobutanol via the acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) fermentation pathway (Ezeji et al., 2007). Coproducts include alcohols with lower molecular weight than butanol and acetone. However, only a small number of compa- nies have pursued biobutanol from corn starch, and the development of that technology remains in the precommercial stage. Challenges to producing biobutanol include its toxicity to the microorganisms that ferment sugar for its production and reducing the yield of coproducts to maximize butanol yield. If corn grain is the source of the sugars for fermentation, a residue similar to DDG will also be produced. However, the DDG from conversion of corn grain to biobutanol might require additional processing to remove any toxic biobutanol and acetone residue before it could be used as an animal feed- stuff. Biobutanol is signiﬁcantly less soluble in water than ethanol. It could be a drop-in 4 At constant diesel production, every gallon of ethanol increases diesel CO2 emissions by about 1.4 lbs. This offsets the reduction in the CO2 attributable to ethanol use by about 10 percent. 5 The full-load continuous rating of the process plant as designed.
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35 BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN FIGURE 2-5 Location of ethanol bioreﬁneries in the United States as of September 2010. NOTE: Green ﬂags indicate locations of operating bioreﬁneries and red ﬂags indicate locations of bioreﬁneries under construction. SOURCE: Urbanchuk (2010). FIGURE 2-6 Distribution of planted soybean acres in the United States in 2008. SOURCE: USDA-ERS (2010).
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37 BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN coprocess animal fats in Conoco-Phillips existing diesel hydrotreaters to produce 175 mil- lion gallons of renewable diesel each year. This coprocessing was discontinued when the U.S. Internal Revenue Service ruled that the tax credit for biodiesel did not apply to material coprocessed with petroleum. Products and Coproducts A typical transesteriﬁcation plant can produce biodiesel from virgin oil and requires methanol, potassium hydroxide, and heat and electricity. The process results in the genera- tion of glycerol and other impurities. Glycerol can be sold commercially for pharmaceutical formulation, soap production, and other uses before the market saturates. It also can be used as a feedstock to produce hydrogen, but technical improvements are needed to prove this pathway scalable and economically viable. Soybean seeds yield about 18-percent oil and the remaining meal, the primary product of soybean production, is sold as a highly nutritious animal feedstuff. Because of the high yield of the meal, this coproduct provides better monetary returns per ton of seed than the oil used in biofuel production. Green diesel or renewable diesel generally has poor cold-ﬂow properties (many prod- ucts are solid at room temperature). Aside from the poor cold-ﬂow properties, it is fully compatible with petroleum diesel and can use the existing distribution infrastructure. Production of green diesel does not result in any coproducts of signiﬁcant volume. The coproducts from the production of green diesel are primarily water, CO2, and propane. Distribution and Use Because of the ﬂexibility in feedstocks that can be used to produce biodiesel, biodiesel reﬁneries are more widely distributed geographically than reﬁneries that produce corn- grain ethanol and include many that are processing waste oil as a feedstock rather than agricultural products (Figure 2-8). It is currently the largest volume class of biofuels after ethanol. FAME biodiesel is also mostly distributed by truck, barge, or rail. Although pipe- line distribution would be the most economical option, it requires further experimentation. FAME has poor cold-ﬂow properties, which could pose problems for delivery in colder climates. The fuel needs to be stored in special heated tanks to keep it ﬂuid if it is to be used in northern tier states. The current speciﬁcations for FAMEs do not set limits on cold-ﬂow properties, which are required to be reported to the customer only. The lack of limits makes reﬁnery planning and operation more difﬁcult. For many conventional petroleum crude oils, cold-ﬂow properties limit the amount of diesel that can be produced. Operating a reﬁnery capable of accepting FAMEs with different cold-ﬂow properties would be difﬁcult and costly. The base petroleum streams would have to be produced for the “worst case sce- nario” of poor cold-ﬂow properties. Cold-ﬂow properties do not always blend predictably, so the reﬁneries have to produce conservative blends. It is costly for a reﬁnery to reblend or reprocess product that is off speciﬁcation for cold-ﬂow properties. Commercially relevant quantities of FAME have been blended into diesel fuel for sev- eral years. Quality control and economic and feedstock availability issues, however, have limited its growth as a petroleum-diesel replacement. FAME is more chemically active than petroleum-based diesel, and it degrades and forms corrosive acids during storage. Exposure to air and water accelerates this degradation. In addition, FAME can undergo biological degradation in contact with water. This process forms a “scum” at the oil-water interface that will plug downstream ﬁlters, including those owned by the ﬁnal user, such as vehicle fuel ﬁlters or home heating system ﬁlters. Although ASTM speciﬁcations exist
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39 BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN Most HDS units can handle the incremental amount of water and propane that are pro- duced from limited coprocessing, but again these facilities would have to be upgraded to process additional volumes. The oxygen removed via triglyceride hydrogenation produces some CO2 in addition to water. Up to half of the total oxygen can be released in the form of CO2. Most HDS units are not designed to handle CO2 as a reaction product. If the HDS unit has a recycle-gas, amine-based hydrogen sulﬁde (H2S) scrubber, then the CO2 will be recovered together with the H2S. This will minimize the effect of CO2 on the HDS operation but will increase the load on the amine system and the sulfur plant, reducing the reﬁnery’s ability to process high-sulfur crudes. Without a recycle-gas scrubber, CO2 can build up in the recycle gas. This buildup has negative effects on unit operation. Processing triglycerides can also affect the HDS pre- heat system. All biobased triglycerides contain oleﬁnic bonds as well as some free fatty acids. The oleﬁnic bonds can interact and form gums either in storage or in the preheat train. These gums deposit in the preheat exchangers, the furnace, and the catalyst bed and degrade unit performance. The free fatty acids can also cause additional corrosion in the preheat exchangers. HDS preheat train metallurgy would most likely have to be upgraded to process signiﬁcant volumes of triglycerides. Because most reﬁneries control diesel cold-ﬂow properties by adjusting the back-end distillation cut point of the diesel components, including green diesel in the diesel pool requires an end-point reduction in the other blend components. Reducing the diesel end point decreases the amount of diesel that can be produced from a barrel of crude oil. This heavy stream that can no longer be included in diesel would have to be processed by ﬂuid- ized catalytic cracking (FCC), the vacuum gas oil hydrocracker, or blended into heavy fuel oil. All of these alternate options are usually less proﬁtable than including it in diesel fuel. Status as of 2010 In 2008, an estimated 16 percent of soybean production in the United States was used to produce biodiesel (USDA-NASS, 2010). Biodiesel production increased from 9 million gallons per year in 2001 to 532 million gallons per year in 2009 (EIA, 2010), but members of the National Biodiesel Board reported a total production capacity of 2.7 billion gallons per year (NBB, 2010). A list of biodiesel reﬁneries is provided in Appendix I. Nonfood oils produced from algae or dedicated bioenergy crops, such as camelina, are expected to be used as biomass feedstock in the future. NONFOOD-BASED BIOFUELS Cellulosic Feedstock Cellulose,6 hemicellulose,7 and lignin8 provide the structural components of plant cells. Those plant materials can be used to produce biofuels, commonly referred to as cellulosic biofuels. Potential feedstocks for cellulosic biofuels include agricultural residues, dedicated energy crops, forest resources, and municipal solid waste. 6 A complex carbohydrate, (C6H10O5)n, that forms cell walls of most plants. 7 A matrix of polysaccharides present in almost all plant cell walls with cellulose. 8 A complex polymer that occurs in certain plant cell walls. Lignin binds to cellulose ﬁbers and hardens and strengthens the cell walls of plants.
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TABLE 2-4 Continued 68 DOE Grant Nonfederal Grantee Location Amount Amount Feedstock Source Description Gas Technology Des Plains, IL $2,500,000 $625,000 Algae from This project was selected to complete preliminary engineering design Institute PetroSun and Blue for a novel process to produce green gasoline and diesel from woody Marble; 1 T wood biomass, agricultural residues, and algae. from Johnson Timber; and corn stover from Cargill Haldor Topsoe, Inc. Des Plains, $25,000,000 $9,701,468 Wood from UPM, This project will convert wood to green gasoline by fully integrating IL, MN and optimizing a multistep gasiﬁcation process. The pilot plant will have the capacity to process 23 dry tons of feedstock per day. ICM, Inc. St. Joseph, $25,000,000 $6,268,136 Corn stover from This project will modify an existing corn-ethanol facility to produce MO LifeLine Foods; cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and energy sorghum using other feedstocks biochemical conversion processes. from unknown sources Logos Technologies Visalia, CA $20,445,849 $5,113,962 Corn stover from This project will convert switchgrass and woody biomass into ethanol Next Step Biofuels using a biochemical conversion processes. Inc.; switchgrass from Ceres; wood from central California facilities Renewable Toledo, OH $19,980,930 $5,116,072 Unknown This project will produce high-quality green diesel from agriculture and Energy Institute forest residues using advanced pyrolysis and steam reforming. The pilot International plant will have the capacity to process 25 dry tons of feedstock per day. Solazyme, Inc. Riverside, PA $21,765,738 $3,857,111 Sucrose, MSW This project will validate the projected economics of a commercial scale organics, or bioreﬁnery producing multiple advanced biofuels. This project will switchgrass from produce algal oil that can be converted to oil-based fuels. unknown sources UOP LLC Kapolei, HI $25,000,000 $6,685,340 Unknown This project will integrate existing technology from Ensyn and UOP to produce green gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from agricultural residue, woody biomass, dedicated energy crops, and algae.
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TABLE 2-4 Continued DOE Grant Nonfederal Grantee Location Amount Amount Feedstock Source Description ZeaChem Inc. Boardman, $25,000,000 $48,400,000 Wood from This project will use purpose-grown hybrid poplar trees to produce OR Greenwood fuel-grade ethanol using hybrid technology. Additional feedstocks such Resources as agricultural residues and energy crops will also be evaluated in the pilot plant. Demonstration-Scale Projects (in alphabetical order) BioEnergy Clearﬁeld $50,000,000 $89,589,188 Corn from Lansing This project will biologically produce succinic acid from sorghum. The International, LLC County, PA Trade Group, LLC process being developed displaces petroleum-based feedstocks and uses less energy per ton of succinic acid produced than its petroleum counterpart. Enerkem Pontoc, MS $50,000,000 $90,470,217 Plant located in This project will construct a facility that produces ethanol fuel from Corporation landﬁll site woody biomass, mill residue, and sorted municipal solid waste. The facility will have the capacity to produce 19 million gallons of ethanol per year. INEOS New Planet Vero Beach, $50,000,000 $50,000,000 Locally sourced This project will produce ethanol and electricity from wood and BioEnergy, LLC FL organic MSW vegetative residues and construction and demolition materials. The facility will combine biomass gasiﬁcation and fermentation and will have the capacity to produce 8 million gallons of ethanol and 2 megawatts of electricity per year by the end of 2011. Sapphire Energy, Columbus, $50,000,000 $85,064,206 Onsite algae This project will cultivate algae in ponds that will ultimately be Inc. NM production converted into green fuels, such as jet fuel and diesel, using the Dynamic Fuels reﬁning process. Increased Funding to Existing Bioreﬁnery Projects Blueﬁre LLC Fulton, MS $81,134,686 $223,227,314 Unmerchantable This project will construct a facility that produces ethanol fuel from timber and logging woody biomass, mill residue, and sorted municipal solid waste. The wastes from sites facility will have the capacity to produce 19 million gallons of ethanol 75 to 100 mile per year. radius from plant 69
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70 RENEWABLE FUEL STANDARD One potential feedstock source for biofuels that continues to be pursued is algae. The concept of converting algae to fuels has been investigated for over 30 years. For example, DOE operated the Aquatic Species Program (ASP) that was terminated in 1995 because its product was shown to be uncompetitive with petroleum. However, 1995 was also the year when the ﬁrst genome of a free-living organism was sequenced, that of Haemophilus inﬂuenzae Rd (Fleischmann et al., 1995), a date considered a milestone in the advancement of genomics. Application of genomics or synthetic biology to algal biofuel production could lead to a technology that will be able to produce large quantities of biofuels at competitive costs. The past 15 years have seen a signiﬁcant amount of research in genomics that has cre- ated a foundation on which a whole new set of technologies have been based. This founda- tion has led to another foray into algal biofuel research and development. Signiﬁcant public and private investments have been committed, such as $600 million from ExxonMobil. OTHER FEEDSTOCKS AND PROCESSING TECHNOLOGIES IN DEVELOPMENT The technologies for producing biofuels from algae and cyanobacteria and hydrocar- bon fuels16 from biomass are discussed in the report Liquid Transportation Fuels from Coal and Biomass: Technological Status, Costs, and Environmental Impacts (NAS-NAE-NRC, 2009). Technologies for those biofuels are further from commercial deployment than cellulosic biofuels. Some examples of those biofuel reﬁneries are included in Table 2-3. Algal biofuels are attractive for many reasons. Algae and cyanobacteria can be cul- tivated in mass quantities in open ponds or in photoreactors. They would not necessar- ily compete with food for agricultural land or fresh water, and they would use CO2 as a feedstock. Several types of fuel potentially can be produced from algae and cyanobacteria, including biodiesel, ethanol, and hydrocarbons from various conversion pathways. The spectrum of research and development into algal biofuels is broad and covers both the use of naturally occurring and genetically modiﬁed (including entirely synthetic) organisms as well as engineering systems that involve open ponds, closed bioreactors, and combinations of both. Companies are building or operating pilot- and demonstration-scale facilities17 for cultivating algae and cyanobacteria and for converting them to biofuels (EMO, 2009). Algal and cyanobacterial biofuels have the potential to contribute to biofuels consumed in the United States in 2022, but the quantity and cost of production are highly uncertain and depend largely on the development of those industries in the next 5-10 years. The environmental effects of algal biofuel production are discussed in another NRC study on Sustainable Development of Algal Biofuels to be completed in 2012. Production of hydrocarbon fuels directly from biomass is mostly in the research and development phase (Huber et al., 2005; Roman-Leshkov et al., 2007; Kunkes et al., 2008; Gürbüz et al., 2010). Some technological innovations might never reach the demonstration phase. Pilot and demonstration facilities need to be coupled with research and develop- ment programs to resolve issues identiﬁed during demonstration and to reduce costs (NAS- NAE-NRC, 2009). Commercial demonstrations are critical to proving and improving tech- nologies, improving proﬁciency in technology operation, and quantifying the economics 16 Fuels that are organic compounds that contains only carbon and hydrogen. Hydrocarbon fuels include pe- troleum and alkanes. 17 A pilot facility is a small processing facility that is operated to gather information. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory deﬁnes a pilot biofuel facility as one that processes 1-10 dry tons of feedstock per day.
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71 BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN at large commercial scales (Sagar and van der Zwaan, 2006; Katzer, 2010). Demonstration, scaling up, and learning-by-doing takes time and, therefore, technologies for converting biomass to fuels that are not in pilot demonstration as of 2010 would need “fast-track” development to make any signiﬁcant contribution to meeting RFS2. CONCLUSION The U.S. Congress has mandated that 36 billion gallons per year of biofuels in four categories—renewable fuels, advanced biofuels, cellulosic biofuels, and biomass-based diesel18—be consumed by U.S. transportation by 2022. The capacity of existing corn-grain ethanol facilities was estimated to be 14.1 billion gallons per year as of January 2011 and predicted to reach almost 15 billion gallons per year by 2012, essentially ensuring that production capacity is available to meet the legislated mandate for conventional biofuel. Similarly, existing biodiesel facilities are expected to meet that target for biomass-based diesel in the next several years. In contrast, whether and how the mandates for advanced biofuels and cellulosic biofuels will be met is uncertain. At the time this report was written, the technologies for producing advanced and cel- lulosic biofuels were being developed and demonstrated at pilot scale. Many potential feedstocks, including crop residues, dedicated bioenergy crops, forest residues, and MSW, have been proposed. In the near term, crop and forest residues might be the most likely feedstocks because those resources are available and only investments in harvesting, stor- age, and transport are needed for delivery to bioreﬁneries. Although MSW is available in large quantities, recovery rate of biological fraction is low. Many species of herbaceous perennial grasses and short-rotation woody crops have been suggested as potential dedi- cated bioenergy crops, and appropriate species would have to be selected on the basis of agronomic conditions to minimize the need for inputs (for example, irrigation and fertil- izers) and maximize yield. At the time this report was written, no proven commercial-scale technologies were available for converting lignocellulosic biomass to fuels. Another report estimated that the 16 billion gallons of ethanol-equivalent cellulosic biofuels could be produced by 2022 under an aggressive deployment scenario in which the capacity build rate doubles the historic capacity build rate of corn-grain ethanol (NAS-NAE-NRC, 2009). That scenario assumes that bioreﬁneries with a collective capacity of 1 billion gallons per year will be available by 2015. The industry will expand at an average build rate of 50 percent per year over 6 years. At the maximum build rate, 2-4 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels will be added each year to achieve 16 billion gallons of ethanol-equivalent cellulosic biofuels by 2022. Successful commercial-scale demonstration in the next few years and aggressive deployment there- after will be key determinants of whether RFS2 could be met. The success of demonstration and the rate of deployment depend on many other factors, including research and develop- ment to improve the economics of biomass and biofuel production and to resolve issues that arise during demonstration, economic conditions, and investors’ conﬁdence. 18 See section on “Renewable Fuel Standard” in Chapter 1 for deﬁnition of each category.
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