Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions | |||

Parameter | Feedstock | Mean Value (Likeliest if Skewed) | Statistical Distribution of Cost Estimates^{1} |

Nutrient Replacement (C_{NR}) |
Stover | $13.6/ton ($14.6) | Minimum Extreme |

Switchgrass (All) | $15.6/ton ($16.6) | Minimum Extreme | |

Miscanthus (All) |
$8.35/ton | Normal | |

Wheat Straw | $5.6/ton | Normal | |

Short-rotation woody | - | - | |

crops (SRWC) | - | - | |

Forest Residue | $62.5/acre (~$15.6/ton) | Fixed | |

Alfalfa (2nd year) | |||

Harvest and Maintenance (C_{HM}) |
Stover | $43/ton ($46) | Minimum Extreme |

Switchgrass (All) | $36/ton ($38) | Minimum Extreme | |

Miscanthus (All) |
$45/ton ($48) | Minimum Extreme | |

Wheat Straw | $32/ton ($33) | Minimum Extreme | |

SRWC | $26/ton | Normal | |

Forest Residue | $26/ton | Normal | |

Alfalfa | $57 per acre per harvest | Fixed | |

Stumpage Fee (SF) | SRWC | $20/ton | Normal |

Distance Fixed Cost (DFC) | Stover | $8.50/ton | Normal |

Switchgrass (All) | $8.50/ton | Normal | |

Miscanthus (All) |
$8.50/ton | Normal | |

Wheat Straw | $8.50/ton | Normal | |

SRWC | $10/ton | Normal | |

Forest Residue | $10/ton | Normal | |

Alfalfa | $8.50/ton | Normal |

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L
BioBreak Model Assumptions
Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions
Statistical
Mean Value Distribution of
Cost Estimates1
Parameter Feedstock (Likeliest if Skewed)
Nutrient Replacement (CNR) Stover $13.6/ton ($14.6) Minimum Extreme
Switchgrass (All) $15.6/ton ($16.6) Minimum Extreme
Miscanthus (All) $8.35/ton Normal
Wheat Straw $5.6/ton Normal
Short-rotation woody - -
crops (SRWC) - -
Forest Residue $62.5/acre (~$15.6/ton) Fixed
Alfalfa (2nd year)
Harvest and Maintenance (CHM) Stover $43/ton ($46) Minimum Extreme
Switchgrass (All) $36/ton ($38) Minimum Extreme
Miscanthus (All) $45/ton ($48) Minimum Extreme
Wheat Straw $32/ton ($33) Minimum Extreme
SRWC $26/ton Normal
Forest Residue $26/ton Normal
Alfalfa $57 per acre per harvest Fixed
Stumpage Fee (SF) SRWC $20/ton Normal
Distance Fixed Cost (DFC) Stover $8.50/ton Normal
Switchgrass (All) $8.50/ton Normal
Miscanthus (All) $8.50/ton Normal
Wheat Straw $8.50/ton Normal
SRWC $10/ton Normal
Forest Residue $10/ton Normal
Alfalfa $8.50/ton Normal
351

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352 APPENDIX L
Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions
Statistical
Mean Value Distribution of
Cost Estimates1
Parameter Feedstock (Likeliest if Skewed)
Distance Variable Cost (DVC) Stover $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme
Switchgrass (All) $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme
Miscanthus (All) $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme
Wheat Straw $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme
SRWC $0.50/ton/mile ($0.53) Minimum Extreme
Forest Residue $0.50/ton/mile ($0.53) Minimum Extreme
Alfalfa $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme
Distance2 Stover (CS) 36 miles Fixed
Stover/Alfalfa 26 miles Fixed
Alfalfa 43 miles Fixed
Switchgrass (MW) 19 miles Fixed
Switchgrass (MW_low) 21 miles Fixed
Switchgrass (App) 15 miles Fixed
Switchgrass (SC) 16 miles Fixed
Miscanthus (MW) 13 miles Fixed
Miscanthus (MW_low) 14 miles Fixed
Miscanthus (App) 13 miles Fixed
Wheat Straw 37 miles Fixed
SRWC 17 miles Fixed
Forest Residue 53 miles Fixed
772,000 tons3
Annual Biomass Demand (BD) All Fixed
Yield (YB) Stover (CS) 2.1 tons Gamma
Alfalfa (1st year) 1.25 tons Fixed
Alfalfa (2nd year) 4 tons Fixed
Switchgrass (MW) 4 tons (3.4) Maximum Extreme
Switchgrass (MW_low) 3.1 tons Log Normal
Switchgrass (App) 6 tons (5) Maximum Extreme
Switchgrass (SC) 5.7 tons Beta
Miscanthus (MW) 8.6 tons (8) Maximum Extreme
Miscanthus (MW_low) 7.1 tons (6) Maximum Extreme
Miscanthus (App) 8.8 tons (8) Maximum Extreme
Wheat Straw 1 ton Normal
SRWC 5 tons Normal
Forest Residue 0.5 tons Normal
Biomass Density (B) Alfalfa 0.15 Normal
Other Feedstocks 0.20 Normal
Storage (CS) Stover $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme
Switchgrass (All) $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme
Miscanthus (All) $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme
Wheat Straw $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme
SRWC $11.50/ton ($12) Minimum Extreme
Forest Residue $11.50/ton ($12) Minimum Extreme
Alfalfa $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme
Establishment and Seeding (CES) 4,5 Stover - -
Switchgrass (All) $40/acre Log Normal
Miscanthus (All) $150/acre Log Normal
Wheat Straw - -
SRWC $52/acre Normal
Forest Residue - -
Alfalfa (1st year w/ fert) $165/acre Fixed

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353
APPENDIX L
Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions
Statistical
Mean Value Distribution of
Cost Estimates1
Parameter Feedstock (Likeliest if Skewed)
Opportunity Cost (COpp) Stover (CS) - -
$150/acre6
Switchgrass (MW) Log Normal
Switchgrass (MW_low) $100/acre Log Normal
Switchgrass (App) $75/acre Normal
Switchgrass (SC) $50/acre Normal
Miscanthus (MW) $150/acre Log Normal
Miscanthus (MW_low) $100/acre Log Normal
Miscanthus (App) $75/acre Normal
Wheat Straw $1.80/acre ($0) Maximum Extreme
SRWC - -
Forest Residue - -
Alfalfa (1st year w/ fert) $175/acre Fixed
Processor Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions
Mean Value in Baseline
Parameter Feedstock (Likeliest if Skewed) Distribution
Oil Price (POil) All $52/barrel Fixed
$111/barrel (3 scenarios)
$191/barrel
Energy Equivalent Factor (EV) All 0.68 (0.65) Maximum Extreme
Tax (T) All $1.01/gal Fixed
Byproduct value (VBP) Stover $0.16/gal Fixed
Switchgrass (All) $0.18/gal Fixed
Miscanthus (All) $0.18/gal Fixed
Wheat Straw $0.18/gal Fixed
SRWC $0.14/gal Fixed
Forest Residue $0.14/gal Fixed
Alfalfa $0.18/gal Fixed
Octane (VO) All $0.10/gal Fixed
Capital Cost (CI) All $0.91/gal ($0.85) Maximum Extreme
Non-enzyme Operating Cost All $0.36/gal Fixed
Enzyme Cost All $0.50/gal ($0.46) Minimum Extreme
Yield (YE) All – current 70 gal/ton Normal
All – future 80 gal/ton Normal
1 The cost estimates taken from several published studies cited in Appendix L are not necessarily normally dis-
tributed. This column reﬂects the statistical distribution that the cost observations tended to best ﬁt and that was
used in the Monte Carlo process to derive statistical “mean” and “most likely values” if the statistical distribution
of costs was skewed.
2 Average hauling distance is calculated using the formulation by French (1960) for a circular supply area with
a square road grid. Technically, the distance is not ﬁxed since it is a function of stochastic parameters including
biomass density and yield. French, B. 1960. Some considerations in estimating assembly cost functions for agri-
cultural processing operations. Journal of Farm Economics 62:767-778.
3 Equivalent to 2,205 tons per day delivered to a bioreﬁnery operating 350 days per year.
4 Switchgrass establishment seeding cost is amortized over 10 years at 10 percent, Miscanthus establishment and
seeding cost is amortized over 20 years at 10 percent, and woody biomass is amortized over 15 years at 10 percent.
The values presented in the table are annual payments per acre.
5 All per acre costs are converted to per ton costs using the yield assumptions provided in the table.
6 Midwest opportunity cost is assumed to be positively correlated with corn yield through stover yield with a
correlation of 0.75.

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