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Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: BioBreak Model Assumptions." National Research Council. 2011. Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13105.
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L

BioBreak Model Assumptions

Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions
Parameter Feedstock Mean Value (Likeliest if Skewed) Statistical Distribution of Cost Estimates1
Nutrient Replacement (CNR) Stover $13.6/ton ($14.6) Minimum Extreme
Switchgrass (All) $15.6/ton ($16.6) Minimum Extreme
Miscanthus (All) $8.35/ton Normal
Wheat Straw $5.6/ton Normal
Short-rotation woody - -
crops (SRWC) - -
Forest Residue $62.5/acre (~$15.6/ton) Fixed
Alfalfa (2nd year)    
Harvest and Maintenance (CHM) Stover $43/ton ($46) Minimum Extreme
Switchgrass (All) $36/ton ($38) Minimum Extreme
Miscanthus (All) $45/ton ($48) Minimum Extreme
Wheat Straw $32/ton ($33) Minimum Extreme
SRWC $26/ton Normal
Forest Residue $26/ton Normal
Alfalfa $57 per acre per harvest Fixed
Stumpage Fee (SF) SRWC $20/ton Normal
Distance Fixed Cost (DFC) Stover $8.50/ton Normal
Switchgrass (All) $8.50/ton Normal
Miscanthus (All) $8.50/ton Normal
Wheat Straw $8.50/ton Normal
SRWC $10/ton Normal
Forest Residue $10/ton Normal
Alfalfa $8.50/ton Normal
Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: BioBreak Model Assumptions." National Research Council. 2011. Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13105.
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Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions
Parameter Feedstock Mean Value (Likeliest if Skewed) Statistical Distribution of Cost Estimates1
Distance Variable Cost (DVC) Stover $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme
Switchgrass (All) $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme
Miscanthus (All) $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme
Wheat Straw $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme
SRWC $0.50/ton/mile ($0.53) Minimum Extreme
Forest Residue $0.50/ton/mile ($0.53) Minimum Extreme
Alfalfa $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme
Distance2 Stover (CS) 36 miles Fixed
Stover/Alfalfa 26 miles Fixed
Alfalfa 43 miles Fixed
Switchgrass (MW) 19 miles Fixed
Switchgrass (MW_low) 21 miles Fixed
Switchgrass (App) 15 miles Fixed
Switchgrass (SC) 16 miles Fixed
Miscanthus (MW) 13 miles Fixed
Miscanthus (MW_low) 14 miles Fixed
Miscanthus (App) 13 miles Fixed
Wheat Straw 37 miles Fixed
SRWC 17 miles Fixed
Forest Residue 53 miles Fixed
Annual Biomass Demand (BD) All 772,000 tons3 Fixed
Yield (YB) Stover (CS) 2.1 tons Gamma
Alfalfa (1st year) 1.25 tons Fixed
Alfalfa (2nd year) 4 tons Fixed
Switchgrass (MW) 4 tons (3.4) Maximum Extreme
Switchgrass (MW_low) 3.1 tons Log Normal
Switchgrass (App) 6 tons (5) Maximum Extreme
Switchgrass (SC) 5.7 tons Beta
Miscanthus (MW) 8.6 tons (8) Maximum Extreme
Miscanthus (MW_low) 7.1 tons (6) Maximum Extreme
Miscanthus (App) 8.8 tons (8) Maximum Extreme
Wheat Straw 1 ton Normal
SRWC 5 tons Normal
Forest Residue 0.5 tons Normal
Biomass Density (B) Alfalfa 0.15 Normal
Other Feedstocks 0.20 Normal
Storage (CS) Stover $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme
Switchgrass (All) $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme
Miscanthus (All) $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme
Wheat Straw $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme
SRWC $11.50/ton ($12) Minimum Extreme
Forest Residue $11.50/ton ($12) Minimum Extreme
Alfalfa $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme
Establishment and Seeding (CES)4,5 Stover - -
Switchgrass (All) $40/acre Log Normal
Miscanthus (All) $150/acre Log Normal
Wheat Straw - -
SRWC $52/acre Normal
Forest Residue - -
Alfalfa (1st year w/ fert) $165/acre Fixed
Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: BioBreak Model Assumptions." National Research Council. 2011. Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13105.
×
Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions
Parameter Feedstock Mean Value (Likeliest if Skewed) Statistical Distribution of Cost Estimates1
Opportunity Cost (COpp) Stover (CS) - -
Switchgrass (MW) $150/acre6 Log Normal
Switchgrass (MW_low) $100/acre Log Normal
Switchgrass (App) $75/acre Normal
Switchgrass (SC) $50/acre Normal
Miscanthus (MW) $150/acre Log Normal
Miscanthus (MW_low) $100/acre Log Normal
Miscanthus (App) $75/acre Normal
Wheat Straw $1.80/acre ($0) Maximum Extreme
SRWC - -
Forest Residue - -
Alfalfa (1st year w/ fert) $175/acre Fixed
Processor Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions
Parameter Feedstock Mean Value in Baseline
(Likeliest if Skewed)
Distribution
Oil Price (POil) All $52/barrel
$111/barrel
$191/barrel
Fixed
(3 scenarios)
Energy Equivalent Factor (EV) All 0.68 (0.65) Maximum Extreme
Tax (T) All $1.01/gal Fixed
Byproduct value (VBP) Stover
Switchgrass (All)
Miscanthus (All)
Wheat Straw
SRWC
Forest Residue
Alfalfa
$0.16/gal
$0.18/gal
$0.18/gal
$0.18/gal
$0.14/gal
$0.14/gal
$0.18/gal
Fixed
Fixed
Fixed
Fixed
Fixed
Fixed
Fixed
Octane (VO) All $0.10/gal Fixed
Capital Cost (CI) All $0.91/gal ($0.85) Maximum Extreme
Non-enzyme Operating Cost All $0.36/gal Fixed
Enzyme Cost All $0.50/gal ($0.46) Minimum Extreme
Yield (YE) All–current
All–future
70 gal/ton
80 gal/ton
Normal
Normal

1 The cost estimates taken from several published studies cited in Appendix L are not necessarily normally distributed. This column reflects the statistical distribution that the cost observations tended to best fit and that was used in the Monte Carlo process to derive statistical “mean” and “most likely values” if the statistical distribution of costs was skewed.

2 Average hauling distance is calculated using the formulation by French (1960) for a circular supply area with a square road grid. Technically, the distance is not fixed since it is a function of stochastic parameters including biomass density and yield. French, B. 1960. Some considerations in estimating assembly cost functions for agricultural processing operations. Journal of Farm Economics 62:767-778.

3 Equivalent to 2,205 tons per day delivered to a biorefinery operating 350 days per year.

4 Switchgrass establishment seeding cost is amortized over 10 years at 10 percent, Miscanthus establishment and seeding cost is amortized over 20 years at 10 percent, and woody biomass is amortized over 15 years at 10 percent. The values presented in the table are annual payments per acre.

5 All per acre costs are converted to per ton costs using the yield assumptions provided in the table.

6 Midwest opportunity cost is assumed to be positively correlated with corn yield through stover yield with a correlation of 0.75.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: BioBreak Model Assumptions." National Research Council. 2011. Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13105.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: BioBreak Model Assumptions." National Research Council. 2011. Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13105.
×
Page 351
Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: BioBreak Model Assumptions." National Research Council. 2011. Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13105.
×
Page 352
Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: BioBreak Model Assumptions." National Research Council. 2011. Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13105.
×
Page 353
Suggested Citation:"Appendix L: BioBreak Model Assumptions." National Research Council. 2011. Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13105.
×
Page 354
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In the United States, we have come to depend on plentiful and inexpensive energy to support our economy and lifestyles. In recent years, many questions have been raised regarding the sustainability of our current pattern of high consumption of nonrenewable energy and its environmental consequences. Further, because the United States imports about 55 percent of the nation's consumption of crude oil, there are additional concerns about the security of supply. Hence, efforts are being made to find alternatives to our current pathway, including greater energy efficiency and use of energy sources that could lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as nuclear and renewable sources, including solar, wind, geothermal, and biofuels. The United States has a long history with biofuels and the nation is on a course charted to achieve a substantial increase in biofuels.

Renewable Fuel Standard evaluates the economic and environmental consequences of increasing biofuels production as a result of Renewable Fuels Standard, as amended by EISA (RFS2). The report describes biofuels produced in 2010 and those projected to be produced and consumed by 2022, reviews model projections and other estimates of the relative impact on the prices of land, and discusses the potential environmental harm and benefits of biofuels production and the barriers to achieving the RFS2 consumption mandate.

Policy makers, investors, leaders in the transportation sector, and others with concerns for the environment, economy, and energy security can rely on the recommendations provided in this report.

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