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Committee on the Planetary Science Decadal Survey Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by Contract NNH06CE15B between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Grant AST-1050744 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-22464-2 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-22464-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2011944161 Cover design by Penny E. Margolskee Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in sci- entific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad com- munity of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the gov- ernment, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.nationalacademies.org
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OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD Assessment of Impediments to Interagency Collaboration on Space and Earth Science Missions (Space Studies Board [SSB], 2011) Panel Reports—New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (Board on Physics and Astronomy [BPA] and SSB, 2011) Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era (SSB, 2011) Report of the Panel on Implementing Recommendations from the New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey (BPA and SSB, 2011) Capabilities for the Future: An Assessment of NASA Laboratories for Basic Research (Laboratory Assessments Board [LAB] with SSB and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2010) Controlling Cost Growth of NASA Earth and Space Science Missions (SSB, 2010) Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth-Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Final Report (SSB with ASEB, 2010) An Enabling Foundation for NASA’s Space and Earth Science Missions (SSB, 2010) Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era of Space Exploration: An Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2010) New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA and SSB, 2010) Revitalizing NASA’s Suborbital Program: Advancing Science, Driving Innovation, and Developing a Workforce (SSB, 2010) America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Approaches to Future Space Cooperation and Competition in a Globalizing World: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Mars Sample Return Missions (SSB, 2009) Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2009) A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Heliophysics Program (SSB, 2009) Radioisotope Power Systems: An Imperative for Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: Elements of a Strategy to Recover Measurement Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring (SSB, 2008) Launching Science: Science Opportunities Provided by NASA’s Constellation System (SSB with ASEB, 2008) Opening New Frontiers in Space: Choices for the Next New Frontiers Announcement of Opportunity (SSB, 2008) Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA’s Constellation System: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2008) Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2008) Space Science and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2008) Assessment of the NASA Astrobiology Institute (SSB, 2007) An Astrobiology Strategy for the Exploration of Mars (SSB with the Board on Life Sciences [BLS], 2007) Building a Better NASA Workforce: Meeting the Workforce Needs for the National Vision for Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2007) Decadal Science Strategy Surveys: Report of a Workshop (SSB, 2007) Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (SSB, 2007) Exploring Organic Environments in the Solar System (SSB with the Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology, 2007) Grading NASA’s Solar System Exploration Program: A Midterm Review (SSB, 2007) The Limits of Organic Life in Planetary Systems (SSB with BLS, 2007) NASA’s Beyond Einstein Program: An Architecture for Implementation (SSB with BPA, 2007) Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2007) A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Astrophysics Program (SSB with BPA, 2007) Portals to the Universe: The NASA Astronomy Science Centers (SSB, 2007) The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon (SSB, 2007) Limited copies of SSB reports are available free of charge from Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001 (202) email@example.com www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html
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COMMITTEE ON THE PLANETARY SCIENCE DECADAL SURVEY Steering Group STEVEN W. SQUYRES, Cornell University, Chair LAURENCE A. SODERBLOM, U.S. Geological Survey, Vice Chair WENDY M. CALVIN, University of Nevada, Reno DALE CRUIKSHANK, NASA Ames Research Center PASCALE EHRENFREUND, George Washington University G. SCOTT HUBBARD, Stanford University WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, JR., Carnegie Institution of Washington (retired) (until November 2009) MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California, Los Angeles B. GENTRY LEE, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory JANE LUU, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory STEPHEN MACKWELL, Lunar and Planetary Institute RALPH L. McNUTT, JR., Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory HARRY Y. McSWEEN, JR., University of Tennessee, Knoxville GEORGE A. PAULIKAS, The Aerospace Corporation (retired) (from January 2010) AMY SIMON-MILLER, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center DAVID J. STEVENSON, California Institute of Technology A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired) Inner Planets Panel ELLEN R. STOFAN, Proxemy Research, Inc., Chair STEPHEN MACKWELL, Lunar and Planetary Institute, Vice Chair BARBARA A. COHEN, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center MARTHA S. GILMORE, Wesleyan University LORI GLAZE, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center DAVID H. GRINSPOON, Denver Museum of Nature and Science STEVEN A. HAUCK II, Case Western Reserve University AYANNA M. HOWARD, Georgia Institute of Technology CHARLES K. SHEARER, University of New Mexico DOUGLAS S. STETSON, Space Science and Exploration Consulting Group EDWARD M. STOLPER, California Institute of Technology ALLAN H. TREIMAN, Lunar and Planetary Institute Mars Panel PHILIP R. CHRISTENSEN, Arizona State University, Chair WENDY M. CALVIN, University of Nevada, Reno, Vice Chair RAYMOND E. ARVIDSON, Washington University ROBERT D. BRAUN, Georgia Institute of Technology (until February 2010) GLENN E. CUNNINGHAM, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (retired) DAVID DES MARAIS, NASA Ames Research Center (until August 2010) LINDA T. ELKINS-TANTON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology FRANCOIS FORGET, Université de Paris 6 JOHN P. GROTZINGER, California Institute of Technology PENELOPE KING, University of New Mexico v
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PHILIPPE LOGNONNE, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris PAUL R. MAHAFFY, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center LISA M. PRATT, Indiana University Giant Planets Panel HEIDI B. HAMMEL, Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., Chair AMY SIMON-MILLER, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Vice Chair RETA F. BEEBE, New Mexico State University JOHN R. CASANI, Jet Propulsion Laboratory JOHN CLARKE, Boston University BRIGETTE HESMAN, University of Maryland WILLIAM B. HUBBARD, University of Arizona MARK S. MARLEY, NASA Ames Research Center PHILIP D. NICHOLSON, Cornell University R. WAYNE RICHIE, NASA Langley Research Center (retired) KUNIO M. SAYANAGI, California Institute of Technology Satellites Panel JOHN SPENCER, Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, Chair DAVID J. STEVENSON, California Institute of Technology, Vice Chair GLENN FOUNTAIN, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory CAITLIN ANN GRIFFITH, University of Arizona KRISHAN KHURANA, University of California, Los Angeles CHRISTOPHER P. McKAY, NASA Ames Research Center FRANCIS NIMMO, University of California, Santa Cruz LOUISE M. PROCKTER, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory GERALD SCHUBERT, University of California, Los Angeles THOMAS R. SPILKER, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory ELIZABETH P. TURTLE, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory J. HUNTER WAITE, JR., Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio Primitive Bodies Panel JOSEPH F. VEVERKA, Cornell University, Chair HARRY Y. McSWEEN, JR., University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Vice Chair ERIK ASPHAUG, University of California, Santa Cruz MICHAEL E. BROWN, California Institute of Technology DONALD E. BROWNLEE, University of Washington MARC BUIE, Southwest Research Institute, Boulder TIMOTHY J. McCOY, Smithsonian Institution, National Museum of Natural History MARC D. RAYMAN, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory EDWARD REYNOLDS, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory MARK SEPHTON, Imperial College London JESSICA SUNSHINE, University of Maryland FAITH VILAS, Planetary Science Institute vi
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Staff DAVID H. SMITH, Senior Program Officer, Study Director DWAYNE DAY, Senior Program Officer ABIGAIL SHEFFER, Associate Program Officer CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor DIONNA WILLIAMS, Program Associate LEWIS GROSWALD, Research Associate RODNEY HOWARD, Senior Program Assistant ELENA AMADOR, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern (2009) GABRIELE BETANCOURT-MARTINEZ, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern (2010) JORDAN BOCK, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern (2009) DARA FISHER, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern (2010) ABIGAIL FRAEMAN, Space Policy Intern (2009) ANDREAS FRICK, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern (2010) ANGIE WOLFGANG, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern (2009) MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Space Studies Board vii
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENNEL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chair JOHN KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired), Vice Chair MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering YVONNE C. BRILL, Aerospace Consultant ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Oak Ridge National Laboratory ANDREW B. CHRISTENSEN, Dixie State College and Aerospace Corporation ALAN DRESSLER, Observatories of the Carnegie Institution JACK D. FELLOWS, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research HEIDI B. HAMMEL, Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology ANTHONY C. JANETOS, University of Maryland JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE, Naval War College ROBERT P. LIN, University of California, Berkeley MOLLY K. MACAULEY, Resources for the Future JOHN F. MUSTARD, Brown University ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory JAMES PAWELCZYK, Pennsylvania State University MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona DAVID N. SPERGEL, Princeton University WARREN M. WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research CLIFFORD M. WILL, Washington University THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN, University of Michigan MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director (from April 1, 2010) RICHARD E. ROWBERG, Interim Director (from March 2, 2009, to March 31, 2010) MARCIA S. SMITH, Director (until March 1, 2009) CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer SANDRA WILSON, Financial Assistant viii
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Preface Strategic planning activities within NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD) draw heavily on reports issued by the National Research Council (NRC), particularly those from the Space Studies Board (SSB). Prime among these SSB inputs is identification of priority science and missions in the so-called decadal surveys. The first true decadal strategy for the planetary sciences, New Frontiers in the Solar System: An Integrated Explora- tion Strategy, was published in 2003. That comprehensive study canvassed planetary science activities, listed the key science questions, and recommended specific spacecraft missions for the period 2003-2013. Supplemented by several subsequent SSB studies—for example, Opening New Frontiers in Space: Choices for the Next New Frontiers Announcement of Opportunity (2008), The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon (2007), and Grading NASA’s Solar System Exploration Program: A Midterm Report (2007)—the 2003 report provided key guidance for SMD’s planetary science programs during the first decade of the 21st century. The successful implementation of many of the missions recommended in the preceding studies, combined with important discoveries by a variety of ground- and space-based research activities, created the demand for a second decadal survey of the planetary sciences. Thus, in December 2008, Edward J. Weiler, NASA’s associate administrator for SMD, requested that a new decadal strategy study be initiated (Appendix A). Moreover, the request was seconded by the leadership of the National Science Foundation’s (NSF’s) Division of Astronomical Sciences. Specific tasks outlined in the request included the following: • An overview of planetary science—what it is, why it is a compelling undertaking, and the relationship between space- and ground-based planetary science research; • A broad survey of the current state of knowledge of the solar system; • An inventory of the top-level science questions that should guide flight programs and supporting research programs; • Recommendations on the optimum balance among small, medium, and large missions and supporting activities; • An assessment of NSF-supported infrastructure; • A discussion of strategic technology development needs and opportunities; • A prioritized list of major flight investigations in the New Frontiers and larger classes recommended for initiation over the decade 2013-2022; ix
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x PREFACE • Recommendations for supporting research required to maximize the science return from the flight inves- tigations; and • A discussion of the opportunities for conducting science investigations involving humans in situ and the value of human-tended investigations relative to those performed solely robotically. In response to this request, the NRC appointed the Committee on the Planetary Science Decadal Survey, consisting of a 16-member steering group and 54 additional experts organized into five topical panels. For reasons of consistency and continuity, the panels were organized according to planetary objects—that is, inner planets (Mercury, Venus, and the Moon), Mars, giant planets, satellites of the giant planets, and primitive bodies—as in the 2003 planetary decadal survey. Unlike the 2003 survey, however, the present survey omits an astrobiology panel; instead, individuals with appropriate expertise were distributed among the five named panels. The study was formally initiated at a meeting of the steering group held in Washington, D.C., on July 6-8, 2009. Work continued at meetings held in Irvine, California (November 16-18, 2009, and February 22-24, 2010) and concluded with additional meetings in Washington, D.C. (July 13-15 and August 3-4, 2010). In parallel with these meetings, the committee’s five supporting panels held their own information-gathering and deliberative meetings. Each panel met three times: • Inner Planets Panel—August 26-28, 2009 (Washington, D.C.), October 26-28, 2009 (Irvine, California), and April 21-23, 2010 (Boulder, Colorado); • Mars Panel—September 9-11, 2009 (Tempe, Arizona), November 4-6, 2009 (Pasadena, California), and April 14-16, 2010 (Boulder, Colorado); • Giant Planets Panel—August 24-26, 2009 (Washington, D.C.), October 26-28, 2009 (Irvine, California), and May 5-7, 2010 (Boston, Massachusetts); • Satellites Panel—August 24-26, 2009 (Washington, D.C.), September 21-23, 2009 (Irvine, California), and April 12-14, 2010 (Boulder, Colorado); and • Primitive Bodies Panel—September 9-11, 2009 (Washington, D.C.), October 28-30, 2009 (Irvine, California), and April 26-28, 2010 (Knoxville, Tennessee). The committee made extensive use of teleconferences, e-mail, and password-protected websites to facilitate its work. Moreover to ensure the widest possible community participation in the committee’s meetings, all were webcast thanks to technical assistance provided by the NASA Astrobiology Institute. The planetary science community is extremely diverse in its geographic distribution, scientific interests, research techniques and approaches, and institutional affiliations. Thus, it was clear from the study’s initiation that the committee must successfully reflect the interests of this community and that, to achieve a broad consensus of opinion in support of the survey’s recommendations, it would be necessary to solicit and consider a wide variety of inputs from the scientific community, from NASA and NSF and their respective advisory committees, from other government agencies, from major universities and research institutes, and from the interested public. Such inputs were obtained through oral presentations made to the committee, through webcasts, and through numerous public forums and town hall sessions at major national and international community meetings, and by stimulating the drafting of a total of 199 community-authored white papers on a wide range of scientific subjects that covered essentially all topics within the decadal survey’s purview.* To ensure that the white papers would receive appropri- ate consideration, the committee requested that they be available no later than September 15, 2009, that is, prior to the steering group’s and panels’ second meetings. The panels were responsible for preparing a broad survey of the current state of knowledge of the solar system and for identifying the key science questions and measurement objectives most appropriate for being addressed in the period 2013-2022. The panels also assessed current research programs and infrastructure managed by NASA * The contributed papers are listed in Appendix B and are available at http://www8.nationalacademies.org/ssbsurvey/publicview.aspx.
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xi PREFACE and NSF. Finally, using information in the white papers and from other community inputs, the panels identified important spacecraft missions capable of addressing key science questions for those planetary bodies within their respective purviews. To ensure that the identified mission concepts were sufficiently mature for subsequent evaluation and prioriti- zation, the committee commissioned detailed technical studies from several leading design centers, including the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. One or more “science champions,” drawn from the ranks of the panels, was attached to each center’s study team to ensure that the concepts remained true to the science and measurement objectives of their originating panel. In addition, four detailed studies of key technologies were also conducted at the panels’ request. For details on the mission and technology reports completed, see Appendix G. Prior decadal surveys in planetary and other space sciences have been criticized for not paying appropriate attention to the fiscal and technical realism of recommended missions. To rectify this shortcoming and to be responsive to the statement of task’s call for “independent and expert cost analysis,” the NRC contracted with the Aerospace Corporation to provide cost and technical evaluations (see Appendix C) of a priority subset of missions studied by the design centers. Finally, the panels’ various scientific inputs, assessments, and recommendations for new ground- and space- based initiatives were integrated by the steering group. The integration and overall prioritization of new spacecraft initiatives were heavily influenced by the cost and technical evaluations provided by the Aerospace Corporation. Final drafts of the five panel reports were completed in August 2010. The steering group assembled the first full draft of this survey report in September. The text was sent to external reviewers in early October, was revised between December 2010 and February 2011, and was formally approved for release by the NRC on February 23, 2011. A version of this report in prepublication form was released to NASA and NSF on February 25, 2011, and to the public on March 7, 2011. This, the final printed version of the report, supersedes the prepublication report. The work of the committee was made easier thanks to the important help given by individuals too numerous to list, at a variety of public and private organizations, who made presentations at committee meetings, drafted white papers, and participated in missions studies. In addition, the following graduate students greatly assisted the work of the committee by taking notes at meetings: Michael Busch, Serina Diniega, Adrienne Dove, Raina Gough, Scott Guzewich, Paul Hayne, Robert Lossing, Kennda Lynch, Andrew Poppe, Kelsi Singer, and Patrick Whelley. Finally, the committee acknowledges the exceptionally important contributions made by the following individuals at the Aerospace Corporation: Randy Persinger (team leader), Mark Barrera, Dave Bearden, Mark Cowdin, Shirin Eftekharzadeh, Debra Emmons, Matt Hart, Robert Kellogg, Eric Mahr, Mark Mueller, Geoffrey Reber, and Carl Rice. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and techni- cal expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Charles Alcock, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; Kyle T. Alfriend, Texas A&M University; Fran Bagenal, University of Colorado; Richard P. Binzel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Roger D. Blandford, Stanford University; Joseph A. Burns, Cornell University; Athena Coustenis, Observatoire de Paris-Meudon; Victoria E. Hamilton, Southwest Research Institute; Harald Hiesinger, Westfalische Wilhelms-Universitat; Andrew Ingersoll, California Institute of Technology; N. Jeremy Kasdin, Princeton University; Eugene H. Levy, Rice University; Jonathan I. Lunine, University of Rome Tor Vergata; Alfred McEwen, University of Arizona; John F. Mustard, Brown Uni- versity; Keith Noll, Space Telescope Science Institute; Carlé Pieters, Brown University; and Daniel Scheeres, University of Colorado. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before
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xii PREFACE its release. The review of this report was overseen by Richard A. McCray, University of Colorado, Boulder, and Bernard F. Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 SUMMARY 9 1 INTRODUCTION TO PLANETARY SCIENCE 31 The Motivations for Planetary Science, 31 The 2003 Solar System Exploration Decadal Survey, 32 Recent Achievements in Planetary Science, 38 Scope of This Report, 44 Organization of This Report, 46 Notes and References, 49 2 NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS IN PLANETARY SCIENCE 51 Relationships Between Planetary Science Programs at NASA and NSF, 51 Relationships to Other NASA Science Programs, 52 Relationships to Other NSF Programs, 56 Relationship to NASA’s Human Exploration Program, 56 International Cooperation in Planetary Science, 63 Notes and References, 67 3 PRIORITY QUESTIONS IN PLANETARY SCIENCE FOR THE NEXT DECADE 69 Crosscutting Themes, 69 Priority Questions, 69 Building New Worlds: Understanding Solar System Beginnings, 72 Planetary Habitats: Searching for the Requirements of Life, 75 Workings of Solar Systems: Revealing Planetary Processes Through Time, 78 References, 83 xiii
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xiv CONTENTS 4 THE PRIMITIVE BODIES: BUILDING BLOCKS OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM 87 Science Goals for the Study of Primitive Bodies, 88 Decipher the Record in Primitive Bodies of Epochs and Processes Not Obtainable Elsewhere, 88 Understand the Role of Primitive Bodies as Building Blocks for Planets and Life, 93 Interconnections, 97 Supporting Research and Related Activities, 98 Instrumentation and Infrastructure, 98 Advancing Studies of the Primitive Bodies, 100 Notes and References, 108 5 THE INNER PLANETS: THE KEY TO UNDERSTANDING EARTH-LIKE WORLDS 111 Science Goals for the Study of Mercury, Venus, and the Moon, 112 Understand the Origin and Diversity of Terrestrial Planets, 113 Understand How the Evolution of Terrestrial Planets Enables and Limits the Origin and Evolution of Life, 117 Understand the Processes That Control Climate on Earth-Like Planets, 121 Interconnections, 124 Supporting Research and Related Activities, 126 Technology Development, 126 Advancing Studies of the Inner Planets, 126 Notes and References, 134 6 MARS: EVOLUTION OF AN EARTH-LIKE WORLD 137 Science Goals for the Study of Mars, 141 Determine If Life Ever Arose on Mars, 142 Understand the Processes and History of Climate, 147 Determine the Evolution of the Surface and Interior, 151 Interconnections, 156 Importance of Mars Sample Return, 157 Supporting Research and Related Activities, 161 Technology Development, 162 Instrumentation and Infrastructure, 163 Advancing Studies of Mars, 164 References, 168 7 THE GIANT PLANETS: LOCAL LABORATORIES AND 175 GROUND TRUTH FOR PLANETS BEYOND Science Goals for the Study of Giant Planets, 176 Giant Planets as Ground Truth for Exoplanets, 178 Giant Planets’ Role in Promoting a Habitable Planetary System, 190 Giant Planets as Laboratories for Properties and Processes on Earth, 193 Interconnections, 199 Supporting Research and Related Activities, 202 Instrumentation and Infrastructure, 202 Advancing Studies of the Giant Planets, 205 Note and References, 209
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xv CONTENTS 8 SATELLITES: ACTIVE WORLDS AND EXTREME ENVIRONMENTS 217 Science Goals for Studies of Planetary Satellites, 220 How Did the Satellites of the Outer Solar System Form and Evolve?, 220 What Processes Control the Present-Day Behavior of These Bodies?, 227 What Are the Processes That Result in Habitable Environments?, 237 Interconnections, 240 Supporting Research and Related Activities, 241 Instrumentation and Infrastructure, 241 Advancing Studies of the Satellites of the Giant Planets, 242 Notes and References, 252 9 RECOMMENDED FLIGHT INVESTIGATIONS: 2013-2022 257 Criteria for Judging Mission and Related Priorities, 257 Underlying Programmatic Requirements, 257 Missions Recommended Previously and Cost Considerations, 259 Mission Study Process and Cost and Technical Evaluation, 260 Definition of Mission Cost Classes, 260 Balance Among Mission Cost Classes, 261 Small Missions, 262 Prioritized Medium- and Large-Class Flight Missions: 2013-2022, 265 Example Flight Programs for the Decade 2013-2022, 272 Deferred High-Priority Missions, 275 Launch Vehicle Costs, 276 The Need for Plutonium-238, 278 Opportunities for Intra-Agency, Interagency, and International Collaboration, 280 Notes and References, 281 10 PLANETARY SCIENCE RESEARCH AND INFRASTRUCTURE 283 Supporting Research and Related Activities at NASA, 283 NASA Instrumentation and Infrastructure, 290 Supporting Research and Related Activities at NSF, 297 NSF Instrumentation and Infrastructure, 297 Notes and References, 301 11 THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT IN 303 PLANETARY EXPLORATION Technology: Portal into the Solar System, 303 Technology Needs, 306 Recommended Technology Investments, 310 12 A LOOK TO THE FUTURE 313 Preparing for the Next Planetary Decadal Survey, 313 Note and Reference, 314
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xvi CONTENTS APPENDIXES A Letter of Request and Statement of Task 317 B List of Planetary Science Community White Papers Contributed 323 C Cost and Technical Evaluation of Priority Missions 331 D Other Missions Considered 355 E Decadal Planning Wedge for NASA’s Planetary Science Division 369 F Glossary, Abbreviations, and Acronyms 371 G Mission and Technology Study Reports* 381 * NASA initiated mission studies and technology studies in support of this decadal survey. These reports are available at http://sites. nationalacademies.org/SSB/SSB_059331 and are supplied (unedited) on a CD, and not in printed form, with the final published report.