FRONTIERS IN UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLAR ECOSYSTEMS
REPORT OF A WORKSHOP
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under contract number ARC-0813667, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number NA10OAR4310198, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract number NNX08AB15G. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agency or any of its subagencies.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-21087-4
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-21087-9
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON FRONTIERS IN UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLAR ECOSYSTEMS
JACQUELINE M. GREBMEIER (Co-chair),
University of Maryland, Solomons
JOHN C. PRISCU (Co-chair),
Montana State University, Bozeman
ROSANNE D’ARRIGO,
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
HUGH W. DUCKLOW,
Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
CRAIG FLEENER,
Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Anchorage
KAREN E. FREY,
Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts
CHERYL ROSA,
U.S. Arctic Research Commission, Anchorage, Alaska
NRC Staff
MARTHA McCONNELL, Study Director
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
POLAR RESEARCH BOARD
JAMES W. C. WHITE (Chair),
University of Colorado, Boulder
JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE,
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
DAVID BROMWICH,
Ohio State University, Columbus
CHRISTOPHER J. R. GARRETT,
University of Victoria, Canada
SVEN D. HAAKANSON,
Alutiiq Museum, Kodiak, Alaska
AMY LAUREN LOVECRAFT,
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
MOLLY MCCAMMON,
Alaska Ocean Observing System, Anchorage
ELLEN MOSLEY-THOMPSON,
Ohio State University, Columbus
JOHN PRISCU,
Montana State University, Bozeman
CARYN REA,
ConocoPhillips, Anchorage, Alaska
VLADIMIR ROMANOVSKY,
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
JAMES SWIFT,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
ALLAN T. WEATHERWAX,
Siena College, Loudonville, New York
Ex-Officio Members:
JACQUELINE M. GREBMEIER,
University of Maryland, Solomons
MAHLON C. KENNICUTT II,
Texas A&M University, College Station
TERRY WILSON,
Ohio State University, Columbus
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Board Director
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Eddy C. Carmack, University of British Columbia
Jody W. Deming, University of Washington
Glenn Juday, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Gary Kofinas, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Caryn Rea, ConocoPhillips
Sharon E. Stammerjohn, University of California, Santa Cruz
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the views of the workshop participants, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by A. David McGuire,
University of Alaska, Fairbanks. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.