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RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM, REVISITED

Rapidly Approaching Category 5

By Members of the 2005
“Rising Above the Gathering Storm” Committee

Prepared for the Presidents of the
National Academy of Sciences,
National Academy of Engineering,
and Institute of Medicine

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES,
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING, AND
INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES



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RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM, REVISITED Rapidly Approaching Category 5 D SE N DE ION N CO ERS V By Members of the 2005 “Rising Above the Gathering Storm” Committee Prepared for the Presidents of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine

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2005 “Rising Above the Gathering Storm” Committee Members Participating in “The Gathering Storm, Revisited ”1 NORMAN R. AUGUSTINE [NAE/NAS] (Chair) is the retired CHERRY MURRAY [NAS/NAE] is dean of the School of chairman and CEO of the Lockheed Martin Corporation Engineering and Applied Science at Harvard University. and a former Undersecretary of the Army. He is a recipient She is immediate past president of the American Physical of the National Medal of Technology. Society and a past deputy director for science and tech- nology at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. She CRAIG BARRETT [NAE] is retired chairman and CEO of was formerly a senior vice president at Bell Labs, Lucent Intel Corporation. Technologies. GAIL CASSELL [IOM] is former vice president for scien- PETER O’DONNELL JR. is president of the O’Donnell tific affairs and a Distinguished Lilly Research Scholar for Foundation of Dallas, a private foundation that develops Infectious Diseases at Eli Lilly and Company. She is a for- and funds model programs designed to strengthen engi- mer member of the Food and Drug Administration Science neering and science education and research. Board. LEE R. RAYMOND [NAE] is the retired chairman of the NANCY GRASMICK is the Maryland state superintendent Board and CEO of Exxon Mobil Corporation. of schools. ROBERT C. RICHARDSON [NAS] is the F. R. Newman CHARLES HOLLIDAY JR. [NAE] is the chairman of Bank of Professor of Physics and the vice provost for research at America and the retired chairman of the Board and CEO Cornell University. He was a co-winner of the Nobel Prize of DuPont. in physics in 1996. SHIRLEY ANN JACKSON [NAE] is president of Rensselaer P. ROY VAGELOS [NAS/IOM] is the retired chairman and Polytechnic Institute. She is a past president of the American CEO of Merck & Co., Inc. Association for the Advancement of Science and was chair- man of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. CHARLES M. VEST [NAE] is president of the National Academy of Engineering and is president emeritus of MIT ANITA K. JONES [NAE] is University Professor Emerita and a professor of mechanical engineering. He is a recipi- at the University of Virginia. She served as director of ent of the National Medal of Technology. defense research and engineering at the U.S. Department of Defense and was vice-chair of the National Science GEORGE M. WHITESIDES [NAS/NAE] is the Woodford Board. L. & Ann A. Flowers University Professor at Harvard University. He has served as an adviser for the National RICHARD LEVIN is president of Yale University and the Science Foundation and the Defense Advanced Research Frederick William Beinecke Professor of Economics. Projects Agency. C. D. (DAN) MOTE JR. [NAE] is president emeritus of the RICHARD N. ZARE [NAS] is the Marguerite Blake Wilbur University of Maryland and the Glenn L. Martin Institute Professor of Natural Science at Stanford University. He was Professor of Engineering. chair of the National Science Board from 1996 to 1998. 1Additional members of the 2005 Committee: FOR MORE INFORMATION STEVEN CHU [NAS], a Nobel Laureate in physics, is currently More information, including the full body of the report serving as U.S. Secretary of Energy. and the original Gathering Storm report, is available at the ROBERT GATES, former president of Texas A&M University, is cur- National Academies Web site, www.nationalacademies.org. rently serving as U.S. Secretary of Defense. © 2011 National Academy of Sciences JOSHUA LEDERBERG [NAS], recipient of the Nobel Prize in phys- iology/medicine, passed away on February 2, 2008.

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THE GATHERING STORM, REVISITED Rapidly Approaching Category 5 “It is amazing the insights one can get sitting in an airport waiting for a flight. Last week I found myself at Heathrow Airport in London sitting with two businessmen. The stories they told were remarkable. “One businessman was on his way home from China. He had just spent a week working out the details to build a major manufacturing facility at a booming Chinese industrial park. The development authority promised expedited zoning procedures to facilitate rapid construction. Another government entity offered to line up job fairs to recruit workers. The mayor said they will provide free transportation services from downtown to the factory for employees for two years. The local university promised an intern program for engineering students. And on it went. “The other businessman relayed the challenges he faced with his factory in America. He wanted to double the size of the factory, but was informed he needed a new environmental impact study before he could approach zoning authorities. He sought a meeting with federal officials who were managing “stimulus” funds that he hoped would help finance the expansion. But he was informed he could not meet with the assistant secretary because it would possibly suggest a ‘conflict of interest’.” JOHN HAMRE, Former Deputy Secretary of Defense B ipartisan requests from the United States House example, all funding for the Advanced Research Projects of Representatives and the United States Senate – Energy (ARPA-E) program is scheduled to expire a few in 2005 prompted the National Academies to months into the current year. conduct a study of America’s competitiveness in the The original Gathering Storm report focused on the abil- newly evolved global marketplace. A National Academy ity of all Americans to compete for quality jobs in the of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and evolving global economy. The possession of such jobs is Institute of Medicine committee composed of 20 indi- of course the very foundation of a high quality life for the viduals of highly diverse professional backgrounds, nation’s citizenry. The Gathering Storm report presented supported by the staff of the Academies and many a daunting outlook for America if it were to continue others subsequently conducted a review of America’s on the perilous path it had been following in recent competitive position and released a document that has decades with regard to sustained competitiveness. become popularly referred to as the “Gathering Storm” report after the first line in its title. Five years after the release of the Gathering Storm report, a second report, Rising Above the Gathering The Academies’ original review culminated in four Storm, Revisited, was prepared to assess changes in overarching recommendations, underpinned by 20 spe- America’s competitive posture. The committee con- cific implementing actions. Generally strong bipartisan firmed once again that the 20 actions previously support was granted these findings on Capitol Hill and endorsed should be fully implemented.2 This document in the White House and a number of the recommenda- is a condensed version of that report. tions were eventually implemented. The preponder- ance of the enabling financial resources was provided The committee is, of course, acutely aware of the in the one-time American Recovery and Reinvestment extreme fiscal challenges facing the nation—however, Act (“Stimulus Legislation”). The three-year Authorizing it believes that in reducing outlays priorities must be Legislation, known as the America COMPETES Act, that assigned which distinguish between investments for the approved many of the Gathering Storm recommenda- future and near-term consumption. Just as the solution tions, expired in September 2010. It was then renewed in to the problems of an aircraft that is too heavy to fly is a modified form in December 2010, by a vote of 228 to not to remove an engine—the solution to the current 130 in the House of Representatives and by unanimous economic burden is not to eliminate the engine that consent in the Senate. While this was an extremely propels the economy. important action, the effort to “jump start” America’s competitiveness finds itself standing at a precipice with 2 The  status  of  Congressional  implementation  of  the  committee’s  regard to continued funding at an adequate level. For 20 recommended actions is tabulated in Gathering Storm, Revisited. 3

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Robert Solow received a Nobel Prize in economics in them, the salesperson who sells them, and the mainte- part for his work that indicated that well over half of nance person who repairs them—not to mention the the growth in United States output per hour during the benefits realized by the ultimate user. Further, each job first half of the twentieth century could be attributed to directly created in this chain of manufacturing activity advancements in knowledge, particularly technology.3 generates, on average, another 2.5 jobs in such unre- This period was, of course, before the technology explo- lated endeavors as operating restaurants, grocery stores, barber shops, filling stations, and banks.7 sion that has been witnessed in recent decades. The Gathering Storm committee concluded that a primary IT products such as those cited above were built upon the driver of the future economy and concomitant creation work of a few individuals who decades ago investigated of jobs in the 21st century will be innovation, largely something very basic called solid-state physics. None of derived from advances in science and engineering. these individuals could possibly have foreseen CT scans, While only 4 percent of the nation’s work force is com- GPS, or iPods and devices that store 160,000 books in posed of scientists and engineers, this group dispropor- one’s pocket, yet that is what their work made possible.8 tionately creates jobs for the other 96 percent.4 Similarly, we cannot foresee what products today’s basic When scientists discovered how to decipher the human research will lead to tomorrow. But what we can foresee clearly is that failure to invest in the future now is highly genome it opened entire new opportunities in many likely to result in extended unemployment and a reduced fields from medicine to archeology. Similarly, when scientists and engineers discovered how to increase the standard of living for most Americans. capacity of integrated circuits by a factor of one million The Gathering Storm report assessed America’s position as they have in the past 40 years, it enabled entrepre- with respect to each of the principal ingredients of inno- neurs to replace tape recorders with iPods, paper maps vation and competitiveness—Knowledge Capital, Human with GPS, pay phones with cell phones, two-dimensional Capital and the existence of a creative “Ecosystem.” X-rays with three-dimensional CT scans, paperbacks with Numerous significant findings resulted—for example, electronic books, slide rules with computers, and much, with regard to Knowledge Capital it was noted that fed- much more.5 Further, the pace of creation of new knowl- eral government funding of R&D as a fraction of GDP edge is seen by almost all measures to be accelerating.6 had declined by 60 percent in 40 years.9 With regard Importantly, leverage is at work here. It is not simply to Human Capital, it was observed that over two-thirds the scientist, engineer, and entrepreneur who benefit of the engineers who receive PhD’s from United States universities were not United States citizens.10 And with from progress in the research laboratory or engineering design center; it is also the factory worker with a job regard to the Creative Ecosystem it was found that United building the items that have been designed, the adver- States firms spend over twice as much on litigation as on research.11 However, the most pervasive concern was tiser who promotes them, the truck driver who delivers considered to be the state of the nation’s K-12 education, 3 R.M.  Solow,  “Technical  Change  and  the  Aggregate  Production  Function.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 39: 312-320, 1957. 7 J. Bivens, Updated Employment Multipliers for the U.S. Economy  (2003),  Economic  Policy  Institute  Working  Paper, August  2003.  4 National  Science  Board,  Science  and  Engineering  Indicators  Available  at:  http://www.epi.org/page/-/old/workingpapers/epi_ 2010. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation (NSB 10-01),  wp_268.pdf. Figure 3-3. 8 For a 64 gigabyte iPod, holding books with an average file size  5 In  1971,  the  Intel  4004  Processor  had  2300  transistors.  See:  of 400 kilobytes. http://download.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_ law_40th/MLTimeline.pdf.  In  2009,  Intel  released  the  Xeon®  9 Federal R&D was 1.92 percent of GDP in 1964 and 0.76 percent  ‘Nehalem-EX’  Processor  with  2.3  billion  transistors.  See:  of  GDP  in  2004.  See:  http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf10314/pdf/ http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/2009/ tab13.pdf. 20090526comp.htm. 10 National  Science  Foundation,  Division  of  Science  Resources  6 Beyond Discovery: The Path from Discovery to Human Benefit is  Statistics,  Survey  of  Earned  Doctorates.  See  http://www.nsf.gov/ a series of articles that explore the origins of various technological  statistics/nsf09311/pdf/tab3.pdf. and medical advances (www.beyonddiscovery.org/). 11 NSB, 2010, Appendix Tables 4-8 and 4-9; Towers Perrin, 2009  Update on U.S. Tort Cost Trends, Table 5. 4

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which on average is a laggard among industrial econo- In addition, a recent National Academies report points mies while costing more per student than any other out that “America faces a demographic challenge with OECD country.12 regards to its S&E workforce.” Minorities constitute almost 30 percent of the total U.S. population, yet com- So where does America stand relative to its position prise just 9.1 percent of Americans working in science of 5 years ago when the Gathering Storm report was and engineering occupations.16 A disproportionately prepared? The unanimous view of the committee mem- small percentage of underrepresented minority students bers participating in the preparation of this report is earn science or engineering bachelor’s degrees, yet that our nation’s outlook has not improved but rather this is the fastest growing segment of our population. has worsened. Unless this percentage increases substantially, the num- ber of U.S. engineers will decline in the coming years. Although progress has been made in certain areas such Addressing this issue requires that we improve public as launching the ARPA-E, the growth of our national debt K-12 STEM education and inspire these communities from $8 trillion to $13 trillion during the past five years about science and engineering. has diminished our latitude to confront challenges.13 Nonetheless, other nations facing corresponding chal- Finally, many other nations have been markedly pro- lenges are continuing to invest in competitiveness: Russia gressing, thereby affecting America’s relative ability to is building an entire new high-tech city; the world’s larg- compete effectively for new factories, research labo- est private solar R&D facility has just been established in ratories, administrative centers—and jobs. While this China (by a U.S. firm), Saudi Arabia has established one progress by other nations is to be both encouraged and of the highest-endowed technological universities in the welcomed, so too is the notion that Americans wish to world, and that only begins the list.14 continue to be among those peoples who prosper. Further, in spite of sometimes heroic efforts and occa- The only promising avenue for achieving this latter sional very bright spots, our public school system—or outcome, in the view of the Gathering Storm commit- more accurately 14,000 systems—has shown little sign tee and many others, is through innovation. Fortunately, of improvement, particularly in mathematics and sci- this nation has in the past demonstrated considerable ence.15 To do this we must upgrade the teacher corps, prowess in this regard. Unfortunately, it has increas- especially in math and science. ingly placed shackles on that prowess such that, if not relieved, America’s ability to provide financially and personally rewarding jobs for its own citizens can be 12 NSB,  2010,  Appendix  Tables  1-9,  1-10,  and  1-11;  and  expected to decay at an accelerating pace. The recom- Organization  for  Economic  Cooperation  and  Development,  mendations made 5 years ago, the highest priorities of Education  at  a  Glance  2009:  OECD  Indicators;  Table  B-1.  See:    which were strengthening the public school system and http://www.oecd.org/document/24/0,3343,en_2649_39263238_ investing in basic scientific research, appear to be as 43586328_1_1_1_37455,00.html. appropriate today as then. 13 See Table 7.1, Federal Debt at the End of the Year: 1940:2015  at:  http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals/  (accessed  In summary, the Gathering Storm committee’s con- August 23, 2010). sidered judgment is that in spite of the efforts of both 14 Smart Russia, Newsweek, May 14, 2010 (http://www.newsweek. those in government and the private sector, the outlook com/2010/05/14/smart-russia.html);  Applied  Materials  Opens  for America to compete for quality jobs has still further Solar  Technology  Center  in  Xian,  China,  TechOn,  October  27,    deteriorated over the past 5 years. 2009 (http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20091027/ 176977/);  L.  Gold,  Skorton  and  Rhodes  attend  groundbreaking  for  Saudi Arabian  university,  a  potential  Cornell  partner,  Cornell  The Gathering Storm appears to be a Category 5. Chronicle, October 25, 2007 (http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/ Oct07/saudiarabia.html);  and  E.  Prentice,  MIT  Endowment  Has  3.2 Percent Yield, Even As U.S. Markets Slide, The Tech, October  16 National Academy  of  Sciences,  National  Academy  of  7, 2008 (http://tech.mit.edu/V128/N45/endowment.html). Engineering,  Institute  of  Medicine.  2011.  Expanding  Under- 15 National Center for Education Statistics, Numbers and Types of  represented  Minority  Participation:  America’s  Science  and  Public Elementary and Secondary Local Education Agencies, From  Technology Talent at the Crossroads. Washington, DC: National  the Common Core of Data: School Year 2007–08. See: http://nces. Academies Press. ed.gov/pubs2010/2010306.pdf (accessed August 23, 2010). 5

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TABLE 1 U.S. Rankings in Various International Competitiveness Indicators Current innovation-based competitiveness a 6th (in the world) Percentage of young adults who have graduated from high school b 11th (in the OECD)* Science literacy among top students c 15th (of 65 countries/regions tested) College completion rate b 16th (in the OECD)* High school completion rateb 20th (in the OECD)* Density of broadband Internet penetration d 22nd (in the world) Science proficiency of 15-year-oldsc 23rd (of 65 countries/regions tested) Proportion of college students receiving S&E degreeb 27th (in the OECD)* Mathematics literacy among top students c 28th (of 65 countries/regions tested) Mathematics proficiency of 15-year-olds c 31st (of 65 countries/regions tested) Improvement in innovation-based competitiveness in 40th (in the world) the past decade a Quality of mathematics and science education e 48th (in the world) Density of mobile telephony subscriptions d 72nd (in the world) *The Organization of Economic Cooperation, and Development (OECD) currently has 34 members. aInformation Technology and Innovation Foundation, The Atlantic Century: Benchmarking EU & U.S. Innovation and Competitiveness, February 2009. See: http://www.itif.org/files/2009-atlantic-century.pdf. b OECD, 2009. Rankings include OECD members and partners, and college graduation ranking is based on Tertiary-A insti- tutions. See: Tables A1.2.a, A2.1, A3.1, and A.3.5 at http://www.oecd.org/document/24/0,3343,en_2649_39263238_43586328_1_1_ 1_1,00.html. cNational Center for Education Statistics, PISA 2009 Data Tables, Figures and Exhibits, Tables S1, S3, M1, and M3. See http:// nces.ed.gov/pubs2011/2011004_1.pdf. d S. Dutta and I. Mia, Global Information Technology Report 2009–2010: ICT for Sustainability, World Economic Forum, 2010. eWorld Economic Forum, The Global Information Technology Report 2009-2010, Available at: http://www.weforum.org/ node/48197. 6

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TABLE 2 A Tale of Two Countries, A and B: Why 77 Percent of Companies Say They Will Expand in Country B Representative Rapidly Consideration Established Country A* Developing Country B Multi-year tax holiday for Corporate Tax Rate Second highest in the world newly established facilities Assembly Labor Cost Approximately $20.00 per hour Approximately $1.50 per hour Fringe Benefits 35% of wage Zero — paid by government Relative Number of Engineers for One Eight Fixed Cost Average Global Standing of High School Bottom 25% Top 10% Graduates Annual Domestic Market Growth Rate 3% 10% Ratio of Corporate Litigation Cost to Double Near zero Research Investments Government Regulation Extensive Minimal Tax on Repatriated Foreign Earnings Yes No Nineteen categories containing Export Controls Few hundreds of items Sanctity of Contracts High Less certain Predictability of Controls on Business Moderate to high Low to moderate *Country A is the United States. Items highlighted in red are less favorable for innovation, and those highlighted in green are more favorable. 7

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O V E R V I E W O F R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S BOX 1 The Gathering Storm committee offered four overarching recommendations. These are highly interdepen- dent. For example, to produce more researchers but not increase research spending would be highly coun- terproductive. In order of assigned importance, the four recommendations can be summarized as follows: IMPLEMENTING ACTIONS I. Move the United States K-12 educa- tion system in science and mathe- In support of the above general recommenda- matics to a leading position by global tions, the National Academies offered 20 spe- cific implementing actions: standards. 10,000 Teachers Educating 10 Million Minds II. Double the real federal investment (focuses on K-12 education, the committee’s in basic research in mathematics, unanimous highest priority). the physical sciences, and engineer- • Provide 10,000 new mathematics and science ing over the next 7 years (while, at a teachers each year by funding competitively awarded 4-year scholarships for U.S. citizens minimum, maintaining the recently at U.S. institutions that offer special programs leading to core degrees in mathematics, science, doubled real spending levels in the or engineering accompanied by a teaching cer- biosciences). tificate. On graduation, participants would be required to teach in a public school for 5 years and, one hopes, beyond that time by choice. III. Encourage more United States citi- • Strengthen the skills of 250,000 current teach- ers by such actions as subsidizing the achieve- zens to pursue careers in mathemat- ment of master’s degrees (in science, math- ematics, or engineering) and participation in ics, science, and engineering. workshops, and create a world-class mathemat- ics and science curriculum available for volun- tary adoption by local school districts through- IV. Rebuild the competitive ecosystem out the nation. by introducing reforms in the nation’s • Increase the number of teachers qualified to teach Advanced Placement courses and the tax, patent, immigration, and litiga- number of students enrolled in those courses tion policies. 17 For a  complete  presentation  of  the  recommendations,  see  National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering,  and  Institute  of  Medicine  (2007),  Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future, Washington, DC: National Academies Press. 8

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F R O M T H E O R I G I N A L G A T H E R I N G S T O R M 17 by offering financial bonuses both to high- • Grant tax credits to employers that support continuing education for practicing scientists performing teachers and to students who excel. and engineers. Sowing the Seeds • Continue to improve visa processing for inter- national students. (focuses on funding for research). • Offer a one-year visa extension to PhD recipi- • Increase federal basic-research funding in the ents in science, technology, engineering, math- physical sciences, mathematics, and engineer- ematics, or other fields of national need; grant ing by a real 10 percent each year over the next automatic work permits to those meeting secu- 7 years. rity requirements and obtaining employment; provide a preferential system for acquiring citi- • Provide research grants each year to 200 early- zenship for those who complete their degrees; career researchers, payable over 5 years. and repeal the mandatory “go-away” provision • Provide an incremental $500 million per year now in U.S. immigration law. for at least 5 years to modernize the nation’s • Offer preferential visas to applicants who aging research facilities, with the expenditures have special skills in mathematics, science, overseen by a National Coordination Office for engineering, and selected languages. Research Infrastructure to be in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. • Modify the “deemed export” law to give faculty greater flexibility in teaching technol- • Allocate 8 percent of government research ogy classes and industry less-outdated criteria funds to pursuits specifically chosen at the dis- for determining the appropriateness of certain cretion of local researchers and their managers, exports. with emphasis on projects potentially offering a high payoff even though accompanied by sub- Incentives for Innovation stantial risk. (focuses on the innovation environment). • Establish an ARPA-E in the Department of Energy patterned after the highly successful DARPA • To permit accelerated handling of patent mat- in the Department of Defense but focused on ters, adopt a “first-to-file” patent system and major breakthroughs in energy security. increase employment of the U.S. Patent and • Institute a Presidential Innovation Award to Trademark Office. stimulate advances serving the national interest. • Expand and make permanent the R&D tax credit. It has been extended 11 times since it Best and Brightest was first enacted in 1981 but never made per- (focuses on higher education). manent. • Restructure the corporate income-tax laws to • Provide 25,000 competitively awarded under- help make firms that create jobs in the United graduate scholarships each year of up to $20,000 States more competitive. per year for 4 years in the physical and life sci- ences, mathematics, and engineering for U.S. • Increase broadband Internet access through- citizens attending U.S. institutions. out the nation. • Provide 5,000 competitively awarded portable graduate fellowships each year of up to $20,000 per year in fields of national need. 9

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A F E W F A C T O I D S 18 BOX 2 In October 2010, China announced that it had Thirty years ago, 10 percent of California’s built the world’s fastest supercomputer.19 general fund went to higher education and three percent to prisons. Today, nearly 11 percent goes Federal funding of research in the physical to prisons and 8 percent to higher education. sciences as a fraction of GDP fell by 55 percent between 1970 and 2007. The decline in engi- China is now second in the world in its publi- neering funding was 54 percent.20 cation of biomedical research articles, having recently surpassed Japan, the United Kingdom, India is projected to add 7 million to 8 million new Germany, Italy, France, Canada, and Spain. mobile subscribers a month in the coming years, while total U.S. mobile subscriber growth is In 2008, for the first time, more U.S. patents about 1 million per month.21 were awarded to non-U.S. companies than were awarded to U.S. companies. The U.S. is now a net importer of high technol- ogy goods, with its trade deficit reaching $80 Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. (computer manu- billion in 2008.22 facturing) employs more people than the world- wide employment of Apple, Dell, Microsoft, Intel, In the 2009 Program for International Student and Sony combined. Assessment (PISA) evaluation of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development United States consumers spend significantly (OECD), U.S. 15-year-olds ranked 23rd in science more on potato chips than the government and 31st in math among the 65 countries and devotes to energy R&D. economies tested.23 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is now lower than when the first per- sonal computer was built in 1975. 18 Factoid  references  not  provided  here  are  available  in  the  full  report,  available  at:  http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_ id=12999. China has now replaced the United States as the world’s number one high-technology exporter. 19 China: Our  supercomputer  is  faster  than  yours!  MSNBC,  October  28,  2010  (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39889753/ns/ technology_and_science-tech_and_gadgets/). Eight of the 10 global companies with the largest 20American  Association  for  the  Advancement  of  Science,  R&D budgets have established R&D facilities in Historical  Table:  Federal  Support  of  Research  by  Discipline  China, India, or both. (http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd/disc07tb.pdf);  NSB,  2010,  Appendix  Table 4-1. China has a $196 billion positive trade balance. 21 S. Singh,  3G,  MNP  to  define  2011  telecom  story,  Times of The United States’ balance is negative $379 India,  December  23,  2010  (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ business/india-business/3G-MNP-to-define-2011-telecom-story/ billion. articleshow/7148490.cms).  22 NSB, 2010. Forty-nine percent of United States adults do not know how long it takes for the Earth to revolve 23 Organization  for  Economic  Cooperation  and  Develop- ment,  PISA  2009  Results  (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/ around the Sun. 54/12/46643496.pdf). 10

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The United States graduates more visual arts in family income in recent decades. United States and performing arts majors than engineers. current and former students have amassed $633 billion in student loan debt. To put things in perspective, the total fed- eral investment in research in mathematics, the In 2008, 770,000 people worked in the United physical sciences and engineering each year States correction sector, a number which is is equal to the amount by which the nation’s projected to grow. During the same year there healthcare costs increase in just 9 weeks. were 880,000 workers in the entire United States automobile manufacturing sector. China’s Tsinghua and Peking Universities are the two largest suppliers of students who receive Between 1996 and 1999, 157 new drugs were PhD’s—in the United States. approved in the United States. In a correspond- ing period 10 years later the number dropped A Japanese company produces over 75 percent to 74. of the world’s nickel-metal hydride batteries used in vehicles. American youths between the ages of 8 and 18 average 7.5 hours a day in front of video games, The increase in cost of higher education in television, and computers—often multi-tasking. America has substantially surpassed the growth View of the Large Hadron Collider tunnel sector 3-4, under the Franco-Swiss border. Source: © Copyright CERN. See http:// 11 cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1211045/.

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A F E W FA C T O I D S BOX 2 (continued) In 2007, China became second only to the According to the ACT* College Readiness report, United States in the estimated number of people 78 percent of high school graduates did not engaged in scientific and engineering research meet the readiness benchmark levels for one or and development. more entry-level college courses in mathematics, science, reading, and English. In January 2010, China’s BGI made the biggest All the National Academies Gathering Storm purchase of genome sequencing equipment ever. committee’s recommendations could have been Almost one-third of U.S. manufacturing compa- fully implemented with the sum America spends nies responding to a recent survey say they are on cigarettes—with over $60 billion left over suffering from some level of skills shortages. each year. * ACT,  Inc.  is  a  non-profit  organization  best  known  for  its  standardized test used in college admissions. A man walks near solar energy panels on the top floor of the Theme Pavilion at the Shanghai Expo Site in Shanghai, China. The 30,000 square meters of solar energy panels sit on the top floor of the Theme Pavilion, which could generate 2.5 megawatts of electricity per hour on sunny days. Source: Photo by Liu Jianfeng/ ChinaFotoPress.

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QUOTES BOX 3 “Science is more essential for our prosperity, our security, our health, our environment, and our quality of life than it has ever been.” PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA “If we ensure that America’s children succeed in life, they will ensure that America succeeds in the world.” PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH “Where nations once measured their strength by the size of their armies and arsenals, in the world of the future knowledge will matter most.” PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON “The history of modernization is in essence a history of scientific and techno- logical progress. Scientific discovery and technological inventions have brought about new civilizations, modern industries, and the rise and fall of nations . . . I firmly believe that science is the ultimate revolution.” WEN JIABAO, Premier, People’s Republic of China “Basic scientific research is scientific capital.” VANNEVAR BUSH “. . . in today’s integrated and digitized global market, where knowledge and innovation tools are so widely distributed. . . . : Whatever can be done, will be done. The only question is will it be done by you or to you.” THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, Author, “The World Is Flat” “Such (scientific and engineering) research is what canals and roads once were—a prerequisite for long-term economic vitality.” GEORGE WILL, Pulitzer Prize-Winning Columnist “(Without a change in U.S. government policy) the next big thing will not be invented here. Jobs will not be created here. And wealth will not accrue here.” PAUL OTELLINI, CEO, Intel Corporation 13

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QUOTES BOX 3 (continued) “For decades the United States has enjoyed unquestioned leadership in various technologies required for military superiority. This is no longer true.” RICHARD ROCA, Director, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory “My partners and I found the best fuel cells, the best energy storage, and the best wind technologies were all born outside the United States…we need to restock the cupboard or be left behind.” JOHN DOERR, Partner, Kleiner Perkins “All of us are going where the high IQ’s are.” BILL GATES, Founder, Microsoft Corporation “We had more sports-exercise majors graduate than electrical engineering gradu- ates last year. If you want to become the massage capital of the world, you’re well on your way.” JEFF IMMELT, CEO, General Electric Co. “At this rate . . . we’ll be buying most of our wind generators and photovoltaic panels from China.” ARDEN BEMENT, former director, National Science Foundation “If the United States doesn’t get its act together, DuPont is going to go to the countries that do.” CHAD HOLLIDAY, Retired Chairman and CEO, DuPont Corporation “We educate the best and the brightest and then we don’t give them a green card.” MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, Mayor, New York City “If we’re number one in technology, why do I have to call India for tech support?” JAY LENO, Entertainer “Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.” STEVE JOBS, CEO, Apple 14 14

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“Second only to a weapon of mass destruction detonating in an American city, we can think of nothing more dangerous than a failure to manage properly science, technology and education for the common good . . .” United States Commission on National Security for the 21st Century, 2001 15

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