FUTURE SCIENCE OPPORTUNITIES IN
ANTARCTICA
AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
Committee on Future Science Opportunities in
Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
Polar Research Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, N.W. • Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under contract number ANT-1062149. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agency or any of its subagencies.
Cover image (courtesy of SuperStock) represents a satellite view of Antarctica and the surrounding sea ice derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. The AVHRR instrument is used for a wide range of applications in polar and climate research.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-21469-8
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-21469-6
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
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COMMITTEE ON FUTURE SCIENCE OPPORTUNITIES IN ANTARCTICA AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
WARREN M. ZAPOL (Chair), Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston
ROBIN E. BELL, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
DAVID H. BROMWICH, Ohio State University, Columbus
THOMAS F. BUDINGER, University of California, Berkeley
JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago, Illinois
RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park
SARAH B. DAS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
HUGH W. DUCKLOW, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
PETER HUYBERS, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
JOHN LESLIE KING, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RAMON E. LOPEZ, University of Texas, Arlington
OLAV ORHEIM, Research Council of Norway, Oslo
STANLEY B. PRUSINER, University of California, San Francisco
MARILYN RAPHAEL, University of California, Los Angeles
PETER SCHLOSSER, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
LYNNE D. TALLEY, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
DIANA H. WALL, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
NRC Staff
EDWARD DUNLEA, Study Director
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
POLAR RESEARCH BOARD
JAMES W. C. WHITE (Chair), University of Colorado, Boulder
SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
DAVID H. BROMWICH, Ohio State University, Columbus
JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
EILEEN E. HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
BERNICE M. JOSEPH, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
AMY LAUREN LOVECRAFT, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
MOLLY E. MCCAMMON, Alaska Ocean Observing System, Anchorage
ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ohio State University, Columbus
GEORGE B. NEWTON, QinetiQ North America, Marstons Mills, Massachusetts
CARYN REA, ConocoPhillips, Anchorage, Alaska
VLADIMIR E. ROMANOVSKY, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
GAIUS R. SHAVER, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
ALLAN T. WEATHERWAX, Siena College, Loudonville, New York
Ex-Officio Members:
JACQUELINE M. GREBMEIER, University of Maryland, Solomons
MAHLON C. KENNICUTT II, Texas A&M University, College Station
TERRY WILSON, Ohio State University, Columbus
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Board Director
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant
Preface
The purpose of science, in the broadest sense, is to expand the frontier of human understanding. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean have always been, and remain, a frontier—both an unexplored place and an untapped library of knowledge. In the past 50 years, scientists have made tremendous progress in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. But there are still many frontiers to explore in the coming decades.
Scientific inquiry in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean is helping to answer questions that are important to understanding the planet: its history, its processes, and how it is changing. The gas inside of a tiny bubble of air trapped in the Antarctic ice miles below the surface can help us understand how the climate of the whole planet is changing. A temperature sensor strapped to a seal swimming deep in the ocean under sea ice in the Southern Ocean can ultimately help us understand how sea levels might rise in Washington, DC. There are also mysteries to be solved about how the world and the universe work. Light from earliest seconds of the formation of the universe that is collected at telescopes at the South Pole can help unlock the mysteries of dark matter.
In this report, the Committee on Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean was asked to identify the important questions that will drive scientific research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean over the next two decades. This report is intended to inform the work of the National Science Foundation’s (NSF’s) Office of Polar Programs and in particular a Blue Ribbon Panel that is reviewing the logistical support of NSF’s U.S. Antarctic Program. In doing its work, the committee has tried to highlight important areas of research by encapsulating each in an overarching question. The questions fall into two themes—observing and understanding global change and fundamental discovery. Research support in the South requires considerable resources, so the committee has also attempted to identify key opportunities to be leveraged in the effort to enhance scientific research in the Antarctic region. In looking forward, the committee has identified a need for new initiatives to further develop an observing network and improve scientific modeling capabilities.
Through the process of gathering information for this report, the committee heard from many people in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean science community and we thank everyone for their thoughts (see Acknowledgments section). The committee relied upon a large number of reports from the community, and we would like to thank
the community at large for all of its work in these efforts over the years. In addition, we want to thank the Office of Polar Programs for providing information as we needed it, and for being open to receiving advice. Finally, this report would not have been possible without the dedication and contributions of the National Research Council staff: Edward Dunlea, Lauren Brown, Amanda Purcell, and Chris Elfring.
The Office of Polar Programs has a big job to do in supporting and enhancing scientific research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, and it is very important for understanding our world. We hope that this report offers advice to guide their efforts in the coming decades.
Warren M. Zapol, Chair
Committee on Future Science Opportunities
in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Pennsylvania State University
Gerald T. Garvey, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Thom J. Hodgson, North Carolina State University
Gretchen E. Hofmann, University of California, Santa Barbara
Barbara Methe, The Institute for Genomic Research
Ellen S. Mosley-Thompson, Ohio State University
Claire L. Parkinson, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Steve Rintoul, CSIRO
Colin P. Summerhayes, University of Cambridge
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the views of the committee, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by David Karl, University of Hawaii, and Martha Haynes, Cornell University, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies and the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.
In addition, the committee would like to thank in particular for their contributions during the study process: Karl Erb, Scott Borg, Brian Stone, Kate Moran, Joel Parriott, John Calder, Waleed Abdalati, Tom Wagner, Jerry Mullins, Larry Hothem, LCDR Michael Krause, Mahlon (Chuck) Kennicutt, Meredith Hooper, John Goodge, Helen Fricker, Eric Rignot, Sarah Gille, Jim Bishop, Donal Manahan, Alton Romig, Scott Doney, Allan
Weatherwax, Lawson Brigham, Alexandra Isern, and George Denton. The committee would also like to thank the numerous scientists spoken to throughout the study process, in particular all of the online questionnaire respondents who provided their thoughts on the future of science in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.
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Map of selected locations in Antarctica referenced in this report.
Contents
Opportunities to Enhance Research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
1.1 Content and Purpose of the Report
2 FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE
2.1 How Will Antarctica Contribute to Changes in Global Sea Level?
2.2 What Is the Role of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in the Global Climate System?
2.3 What Is the Response of Antarctic Biota and Ecosystems to Change?
2.4 What Role Has Antarctica Played in Changing the Planet in the Past?
3 FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS OF SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY
3.1 What Can Antarctica and the Southern Ocean Reveal About Past Climates?
3.2 How Has Life Adapted to Antarctica and the Southern Ocean Environments?
3.4 How Did the Universe Begin, What Is It Made of, and What Determines Its Evolution?
4 OPPORTUNITIES TO ENHANCE RESEARCH IN ANTARCTICA AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
4.2 Energy, Technology, and Infrastructure
4.4 Observing Network with Data Integration and Scientific Modeling
5 FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN ANTARCTIC AND SOUTHERN OCEAN SCIENCE Closing Thoughts
B Summary of Online Questionnaire Results
C Promising Technologies for Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science
D Icebreaking Polar Research Vessels and Heavy Icebreakers
E Components of an Antarctic and Southern Ocean Observing System
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