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Contents Summary 1 1 Study Purpose and Background 15 Why Examine Policies for a Single Sector, Transportation? 18 Informing Transportation Policy Choices 23 Transportation’s Current Dependence on Fossil Fuels 24 Outlook for Transportation Energy Use 27 Transportation Energy Use and GHG Buildup 30 Report Organization 34 2 U.S. Transportation Today 37 Scale, Scope, and Patterns of Personal and Goods Transportation 38 Energy Performance of Major Transport Modes 52 Considerations Affecting the Adoption of Fuel-Saving and GHG-Reducing Technologies 72 Summary Assessment 76 3 Transportation Policy Landscape 79 Overview of Decision Makers and Actors 81 Current Policies to Reduce Energy Use and Emissions 88 New and Proposed Policies 97 Summary Assessment 99 4 Factors Driving Modal Energy Use and Emissions 101 Factors Influencing Trends in Light-Duty Vehicles 102 Heavy-Duty Trucks 111 Air Passenger Transportation 125 Other Modes 129 Summary Assessment 129

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5 Policy Options to Reduce Transportation’s Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 133 Transportation Policies in the National Context 133 Transportation-Specific Policy Options 139 Transportation Fuel Taxes 140 Vehicle Efficiency Standards 149 Feebates as Financial Incentives 154 Low-Carbon Fuel Standards 157 Measures to Curb Private-Vehicle Travel 159 Measures Targeted to Freight and Passenger Service 168 Summary Assessment 173 6 Informing the Choices Ahead 179 Aligning Strategic Interests and Policies 182 Research to Inform Strategic Policy Making 188 Concluding Observations 190 Appendix: Scientific Concern over Greenhouse Gas Buildup 193 Study Committee Biographical Information 199