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PANEL I
BUILDING THE NEW ENERGY ECONOMY
Moderator:
Michael Borrus
X/Seed Capital Management
One of the many global issues that should unite China and the United
States is the “desperate need to diversify both economies,” said Mr.
Borrus, the founding general partner of early-stage investment firm
X/Seed Capital. Both economies must be weaned of their “dependence
on sources of energy that produce massive quantities of greenhouse gases
and deplete scare resources.”
Leaders of both nations have embraced the goal of rebuilding
economies based on renewable energy sources, Mr. Borrus noted. But
they face daunting challenges, such as political pressure from powerful
entrenched interests like domestic coal and oil producers.
Other challenges, he said, “come from the very different ways our
two nations interact to influence global competition.” A good example is
in the solar energy industry. Most innovations in solar come from the U.
S., he noted. But “virtually all of the manufacturing will end up in
China.” Over-capacity stemming from over-investment in China has
caused world solar-panel prices to plummet. That has “effectively
destroyed the economic case for investment in domestic U.S. solar
production capacity,” he said, “a situation that is not sustainable, in my
opinion.”
Only a combination of continued innovation and cooperation is likely
to solve such problems, Mr. Borrus said. He noted that the first speaker
addressing these challenges and opportunities for cooperation is Ren
Weimin of the National Development and Reform Commission. He had
been introduced previously. The other speaker, Energy Under Secretary
Kristina Johnson, “embodies both innovation and entrepreneurship, as
well as academic excellence,” Mr. Borrus said. Prior to her current
appointment, Dr. Johnson had been dean of Duke University’s Pratt
School of Engineering and provost and senior vice-president for
academic affairs at Johns Hopkins University. She also has helped found
two companies, performed pioneering research in optoelectronics, and
53
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54 BUILDING THE 21ST CENTURY: U.S.-CHINA COOPERATION
was awarded the prestigious John Fritz medal.1 Previous recipients of the
prize, Mr. Borrus noted, include Alexander Graham Bell, Thomas
Edison, and Orville Wright.
New Renewable Energy Initiatives in the United States
Kristina M. Johnson
U.S. Department of Energy
China and the United States share many strategic energy interests,
Energy Under Secretary Johnson said. Both nations are among the
world’s top energy producers and consumers and emitters of carbon
dioxide. “By working together we can leverage our comparative
advantages in innovation and address this global climate challenge,” she
said.
Controlling greenhouse gas emissions is a major responsibility of
both nations. Together, the United States and China emit 40 percent of
the world’s CO2. Europe accounts for around 20 percent. “There is no
way to tag the molecules under the Chinese flag or the American flag.
We own them all,” Dr. Johnson noted. “So we will have to work together
to figure out a way to mitigate the impact they have and will have in the
future on our environment.”
That impact already is becoming visible everywhere. In her home
town in Colorado, Dr. Johnson said, an infestation of pine beetles has
caused widespread deforestation. In a nearby state, half of glaciers have
been lost in the last 100 years. “I am sure there are places that are
familiar to you where you have seen the effects of climate change over
the past several decades,” she said.
The great news is that Americans and Chinese “both come from very
innovative cultures and we know how to address challenging problems,”
Dr. Johnson said. “As an engineer, every problem is an opportunity to
innovate. So I look forward to working together.”
Dr. Johnson presented an overview of the Obama Administration’s
agenda to expand the clean-energy economy in the United States. The
goals are to secure America’s energy future, reduce greenhouse-gas
1
The John Fritz Medal was established in 1902 in honor of steel magnate John
Fritz and is awarded by the American Association of Engineering Societies
(AAES) for important achievements in science or industry. Dr. Johnson won in
2008.
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55
PANEL I-BUILDING THE NEW ENERGY ECONOMY
emissions by 83 percent by 2050, demonstrate science and engineering
leadership, and collaborate with the global community to clean up toxic
waste that is a legacy of the Cold War by 2015.
Some 70 percent of U.S. electricity is derived from fossil fuels. De-
carbonizing U.S. energy generation is a challenge, but one that is “fairly
straightforward,” Dr. Johnson said. The United States plans to expand
commercial nuclear power generation, to install carbon-capture and
storage technologies in coal-fired plants, and to increase renewable
energy. “We will see a fundamental shift in how we meet our electricity
demand from primary sources converted to electricity,” she said.
The greatest challenge is de-carbonizing the transportation sector, Dr.
Johnson said, which accounts for 29 percent of U.S. energy use and puts
around 2 gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere. Of the 28 quads2 of
energy consumed by transportation, 95 percent is from petroleum.
Light-duty vehicles are responsible for about 60 percent of carbon
emissions, Dr. Johnson noted. Medium to heavy trucks and buses
consume another 20 percent, air transportation 14 percent, and the
balance by shipping and rail. Trucking is clearly less energy-efficient per
ton of goods shipped than rail. To de-carbonize commercial
transportation, she said, the United States must look at advanced bio-
fuels, jet diesel, and fuel cells for electric vehicles, as well as shifting
more freight from trucks to rail.
Heat and electricity in buildings consumes about 39 percent of energy
and releases about 2 gigatons of C02. Industry contributes a similar
amount. Another priority, therefore, is to make buildings more energy-
efficient. Industries of all sizes consume 32 percent.3
Despite the difficult economic environment in the United States, the
Administration is substantially increasing investment in clean energy, Dr.
Johnson explained. Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment
Act, which she described as “historic legislation,” $36.7 billion has been
allocated to the DoE alone for this purpose—more than twice the
agency’s normal annual budget—and $80 billion across the federal
government. These public funds leveraged $150 billion in private
investment in clean-energy projects.
The new funding also realigned DoE priorities. Under the agency’s
base 2009 budget of $16.6 billion, for example, 41 percent of funds were
devoted to R&D and 18 percent to deploying energy technologies, Dr.
2
A quad refers to 1 quadrillion BTUs of energy, the equivalent of 8 billion U.S.
gallons of gasoline or 293 billion kilowatt hours of electricity.
3
Data from “State Energy Consumption Estimates: 1960 through 2007,” Tables
8-12, Energy Information Administration, August 2009.
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56 BUILDING THE 21ST CENTURY: U.S.-CHINA COOPERATION
Johnson explained. By contrast, 75 percent of the DoE’s Recovery Act
funds—or $27.5 billion—are earmarked for deployment while 8 percent
is earmarked for R&D. Other funds went to loan guarantees and other
opportunities to grow the clean-energy economy.
The DoE has focused on what Dr. Johnson described as the “really
difficult part of the clean-energy economy”—de-carbonizing
transportation. It invested $3.4 billion to develop next-generation
vehicles and fueling infrastructure. Those funds are in addition to $8.4
billion extended so far under the Advanced Technology Vehicle
Manufacturing Loan Program,4 which is outside the Recovery Act. “The
projects aim to transform our transportation sector by creating
competition among electrification of the fleet, hydrogen fuel cells, and
compressed natural gas,” she said, “as well as pushing the industry to
create a pathway toward bio-fuels and more efficient commercial
combustion engines.”
Over the next several years, three new electric-vehicle plants will be
built, Dr. Johnson noted, the first ever built in the United States. Thirty
new battery and electric-vehicle component manufacturing plants also
will become fully operational.
To discover new sources of fuel, the Recovery Act deployed $600
million to build 19 pilot, demonstration, and commercial-scale bio-
refineries. Currently, these facilities are for ethanol, Dr. Johnson
explained. In the future, the focus will shift to third- and fourth-
generation fuels that involve direct conversion of sunlight into fuel.
In addition to the bio-refineries, the DoE “has tried to be innovative in
the way we do innovation,” Dr. Johnson said. It has launched programs
such as Energy Frontier Research Centers, the Advanced Research
Project Agency, and hubs.5
To understand how these initiatives fit together, Dr. Johnson said, it
helps to understand the historical background of America’s research-and-
development ethic. Today’s U.S. innovation system was influenced 60
years ago by Vannevar Bush, who Dr. Johnson described as a “brilliant
4
The Advanced Technology Vehicle Loan program is administered by the
Department of Energy. First funding of grants, loans, and other incentives to
makers of automobiles and auto parts to support development and
manufacturing of advanced vehicles was provided under Section 136 of the
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.
5
For explanations of recent Department of Energy innovation initiatives, see
Kristine Johnson presentation in upcoming book, Charles W. Wessner,
Clustering for 21st Century Prosperity, Washington, DC: The National
Academies Press, forthcoming.
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57
PANEL I-BUILDING THE NEW ENERGY ECONOMY
thinker.” Bush thought the government should fund basic research but
that applied technologies and product development should be left to the
private sector. “His initial vision was that there should be a continuum,
and that we in the United States should support that,” she said. The
approach was successful at the start and continues to serve as a model.
“But the world has become more complex in the last 65 years,” she said.
The process of innovation was revolutionized by the invention of the
transistor, which led to the computer, Dr. Johnson said. Thanks to these
breakthroughs, she said, “we can now model and simulate what we want
to build before we build it.” She noted that the Boeing 777 and some
submarines have been designed and built without physical prototypes.
“It’s stunning if you think about that kind of change over the past 60
years,” she remarked.
For a good model of how innovation works, Dr. Johnson
recommended a book called Pasteur’s Quadrant.6 The book describes a
model in which innovation is conducted along two axes. One axis
represents fundamental research. The other represents research into
applied technology. Louis Pasteur operated on both levels: He engaged
in very basic scientific discovery as well as development of vaccines
made possible by that research. At the DoE, the approach is to focus on
“use-inspired” research, Dr. Johnson said. The agency attempts to be
both at the cutting edge of fundamental discovery as well as at the
frontier of applied research. “So we need new models for innovation,”
she said.
The DoE’s Energy Frontier Research Centers fund innovation in
research, Dr. Johnson explained. The ARPA-E program, by contrast,
funds innovation in technology. “As an engineer, that is where I like to
play,” she said. The energy research hubs “fund innovation at scale.”
Work in bio-fuels illustrates how these DoE programs support
research at every level of the innovation continuum. The Energy Frontier
Research Centers explore “ways to be biologically inspired by the way
plants convert sunlight CO2 water into energy and bypass having to
grow, harvest, and gasify the plants to create fuel,” Dr. Johnson said.
ARPA-E explores ways to implement breakthroughs. The hubs “are
trying to gather all of the best ideas together in order to reach
commercial scale,” she said.
6
For explanation of the model of innovation based on the balance of basic and
applied research, see Donald E. Stokes, Pasteur’s Quadrant: Basic Science and
Technological Innovation, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1997.
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58 BUILDING THE 21ST CENTURY: U.S.-CHINA COOPERATION
This new approach to innovation is being “pioneered and led” by
Energy Secretary Steven Chu, she said. “Part of our innovation is that we
need to be open and collaborative, and together figure out the best ideas
that will move our civilization and planet forward,” she said. The
approach used for bio-fuels is also used for “the entire search for the next
generation of renewable energy.”
Collaboration is vital if the DoE is to achieve its goal of doubling
renewable electricity generating capacity and advanced energy
manufacturing by 2012, Dr. Johnson said. The Recovery Act investments
and incentives of $23 billion, combined with private capital of $40
billion, “will give us the fuel to help meet these goals,” she said. Still,
there is not enough funding from one source alone to make this clean-
energy revolution happen.
To give one example, Dr. Johnson said she has been very close to the
effort in hydro power. She noted that her father was a hydro power
engineer and her grandfather was a hydro power engineer. “Now I am a
hydro power engineer,” she quipped.
The DoE spent $30 million, leveraged with about $100 million from
private industry, to create 30 megawatts of new hydro power. Probably
30 gigawatts to 100 gigawatts of potential hydropower can be generated
in the United States. But that would require $30 billion in investment, far
beyond the agency’s resources. “So we have to be clever about how we
make those projects happen by using policy instruments,” she said.
Dr. Johnson noted that the United States has 79,000 dams, but only
2,200 of them produce electricity. In some cases it may make sense to
remove a dam and have a small hydropower in that river. “That requires
us to think strategically again over how we deploy this opportunity,” The
DoE is working with the Treasury Department to provide $2.3 billion in
tax credits to assist such innovative activity.
The United States also is promoting conservation. The government
has committed $5 billion to weatherize low-income housing. “This has
the potential to save 20 percent to 30 percent on the energy bills in the
hardest-hit families in the economy climate,” she said. Buildings account
for 40 percent of energy-use in the United States. Thirty percent of that
energy can be cut through fairly simple energy-efficiency moves, such as
installing more insulation and replacing incandescent bulbs with compact
fluorescent bulbs. There also are incentives for more efficient furnaces
and appliances. The federal funds have been matched with $3 billion
from state governments and another $3 billion distributed to 2,300 cities,
counties, territories, and Indian tribes. Also, the DoE is creating a
regional innovation hub for energy-efficient building technologies.
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59
PANEL I-BUILDING THE NEW ENERGY ECONOMY
President Barack Obama expressed America’s commitment to the
environment is a speech in Prague on April 5, 2009, Dr. Johnson noted.
The President said: “To protect our planet, now is the time to change the
way that we use energy. Together, we must confront climate change by
ending the world's dependence on fossil fuels, by tapping the power of
new sources of energy like the wind and sun, and by calling upon all
nations to do their part. And I pledge to you that, in this global effort, the
United States is ready to lead.”7
The United States and China have a long history of working together,
Dr. Johnson noted. “We are very proud of that history,” she said, noting
that the two nations currently are working through the bilateral strategic
dialogue on subjects such as bio-fuels, wind, and transportation.
One important example of such cooperation is a partnership involving
the DoE’s Argonne National Laboratory, the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and U.S. and
Chinese universities to model regional and local air quality. The program
provided information to Beijing officials to improve conditions for
athletes and spectators at the 2010 Summer Olympic Games, she said.
Dr. Johnson noted that she attended the Beijing Olympics, and wished
to compliment China for the performance of its female field hockey
team. Dr. Johnson, a former field hockey player herself, attended several
Olympic matches. “If you can imagine sitting in the stadium at dusk and
seeing a crystal clear sky,” she said. “It was a perfect day for hockey. It
was really inspiring.”
The most important new collaboration is the U.S.-China Clean
Energy Research and Development Center. The center was announced in
July. The goal is for both the United States and China to each invest $75
million over five years in three areas—energy-efficient buildings,
vehicles, and carbon capture and sequestration for coal. “I was pleased to
have a role in planning this center,” she said. “And I’m looking forward
to working with our colleagues in the United States and China to make
this an exemplar of international cooperation in solving the global
climate challenge.” She thanked her Chinese counterparts for their help.
7
See The Office of the White House Press Secretary, “Remarks by President
Obama,” Hradcany Square, Prague, Czech Republic, April 5, 2009.
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60 BUILDING THE 21ST CENTURY: U.S.-CHINA COOPERATION
Renewable Energy Policy in China
Ren Weimin
National Development and Reform Commission
The growing pressure of energy demand is an important topic at the
Academy of Macroeconomic Research, at the NDRC, said Mr. Ren, the
unit’s deputy director. “Developing clean energy is an inevitable choice
that China will make,” Mr. Ren said. By 2020, non-fossil fuel is expected
to account for 15 percent of China’s primary energy consumption.
These pressures will continue to mount as China seeks to attain its
economic development goals. China already is the world’s largest
developing nation, Mr. Ren noted. The nation’s long-term economic
blueprint calls for becoming a “comfortably well-off society” by 2020,
“more or less realizing industrialization” by 2035. By 2050, he added,
China should be a “medium-level developed nation,” but not yet
reaching the level of the United States.
Many problems must be solved for China to meet its future energy
demand, Mr. Ren said. In 2005, he noted, China already had reached
very high levels of energy production and demand, consuming 2.2 billion
tons of coal equivalent (TCE) worth of primary energy in that year. In
2009, consumption reached 2.8 billion TCE. Demand is expected to hit
3.1 billion TCE in 2010, 4.5 billion in 2020, and about 6 billion TCE in
2050. These required production level will be “gigantic,” he said.
China currently is a major producer of fossil-based fuels. In 2009,
produced about 3.05 billion tons of coal, 189 million tons of crude oil, 85
billion cubic meters of natural gas, Mr. Ren noted. These are the main
sources of electrical power generation in China. “As you can imagine, as
we look forward, the pressure on China’s energy need is huge,” he said.
“So renewable energy is an inevitable choice for China.”
In terms of renewable energy production, China’s view is similar to
that of many other nations around the world, Mr. Ren said. The country
is seeking a mix of wind, solar, biomass, hydro, ocean, and geothermal
power,” he said. “This is our inevitable choice in our strategy in
developing renewable energy.”
The nation has substantial potential resources. Mr. Ren estimated that
China’s “basic conditions are good” to produce 1.7 trillion TCE of solar
energy and the potential for 1,000 gigawatts of wind power. China also
has “technically available exploit capacity” of 540 gigawatts of hydro
power and a large amount of biomass and geothermal energy.
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61
PANEL I-BUILDING THE NEW ENERGY ECONOMY
China has “a solid foundation for developing renewable energy,” Mr.
Ren said. One reason is that “Chinese leaders are very clear about their
goals.” In 2009, President Hu Jintao vowed that China will do its best to
develop renewable and nuclear energy, aiming to have non-fossil
energies account for 15 percent of consumption of primary energy by
2020.8 “This is China’s national policy, and also our solemn promise to
the whole world,” he said. By that time, he pointed out, China’s annual
energy demand will have more than doubled, to 4.6 billion CTE.
Meeting that target will be a major challenge. While China’s
conditions for renewable energy are favorable, Mr. Ren said, it is
relatively expensive. As an illustration, he cited the cost differences
between power from coal and other sources. In Xinjiang Province, coal is
so abundant that electricity costs only 0.23 yuan (3.4 U.S. cents) per
kilowatt.
Wind power, by contrast, costs 0.5 yuan to 0.65 yuan (7 cents to 9
cents). Biomass power costs 0.40 yuan to one yuan. With solar power,
the price jumps to 1.2 yuan to 1.5 yuan (19 cents to 22 cents). “So you
can see from these prices that we face a lot of hurdles,” Mr. Ren said. “In
order to develop renewable energy, we have to gradually reduce cost a
great deal.” Industrial enterprises that use energy inefficiently will be
weeded out. Then it will be possible for enterprises to have both high
productivity and energy efficiency, he said.
In terms of the energy mix, the Chinese government wants hydro
power to account for percent to 8-9 percent of primary energy by 2020.
China has 400 gigawatts of potential hydro power. “So far, we have only
developed 50 percent of that,” Mr. Ren said, with 196 gigawatts
produced. “We hope the figure reaches 70 percent.” The government
hopes solar power will account for 20 gigawatts of electricity, biomass
will account for 30 gigawatts, and wind for at least 200 gigawatts.
Nuclear plants are expected to produce 70 gigawatts.
China set out its long-term agenda in February 2005, when it released
the Renewable Energy Law.9 The law was enacted in January 2006. Two
years later, the long- and medium-term goal strategies10 were published,
8
Speech by Chinese President Hu Jintao to United Nations General Assembly,
September 22, 2009.
9
The Renewable Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China was approved
by the Standing Committee in the 14th Session of the National People’s
Congress on February 25, 2005. See
.
10
For details in English, see “Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for
Renewable Energy in China,” National Development and Reform Commission,
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62 BUILDING THE 21ST CENTURY: U.S.-CHINA COOPERATION
Mr. Ren noted. The country already is making some progress. In 2008,
annual utilization of renewable energy totaled 250 million CTE, or 8.6
percent of annual primary energy needs. Even though renewable energy
declined slightly in 2009 as a percentage of total consumption, to 8.3
percent, output rose to 260 million CTE. “The reason for the drop in
percentage is that total production and consumption of energy increased
very fast,” he explained.
In wind power, China now ranks as No. 2 in the world in terms of
installed capacity. It has 80 manufacturers of turbines. China experienced
the world’s biggest boost in wind capacity last year, rising 124 percent in
2009. With 10,129 new wind-turbine generators added last year, capacity
13,803 megawatts. China has a total of 21,851wind turbine generators
with a capacity of 2,5805 megawatts. “We can say that China’s wind
power is developing rapidly,” Mr. Ren said. The quality of turbines and
assembly capacity of spare parts also have increased. “The current trend
is very good,” he said.
China also is the world’s leading producer of solar panels, with total
production reaching 4 gigawatts in 2009. Ten Chinese photovoltaic
manufacturers are among the 30 biggest in the world, Mr. Ren noted. The
nation now has 300 megawatts of installed solar capacity. In addition,
China’s is the world’s biggest consumer and producer of solar water
heaters. In 2009, 145 million square meters of water were heated with
solar power in China.
China is producing fuel from all kinds of biomass as well, Mr. Ren
said. National annual production of biogas reached 14 billion cubic
meters in 2009, providing fuel for 80 million rural people. Annual output
of bio-ethanol reached 1.65 million tons, and installed capacity of
biomass power-generation plants across the country reached 3.2
gigawatts. About 5 million tons of biodiesel were produced. Geothermal
heating also increasing, by about 10 percent annually, he said. By the end
of 2008, geothermally heated water reached around 600,000 people in
China.
Substantial barriers still must be overcome for China to meet its
renewable-energy goals, Mr. Ren said. The two biggest are the costs of
renewable energy and weak market competition, he said. Another major
hurdle is that the market is still immature. There is a lack of knowledge
of how to improve the market performance of renewable energy. There
PRC, September 2007 (
63
PANEL I-BUILDING THE NEW ENERGY ECONOMY
also is “lack of broad social recognition” of the importance of renewable
energies, he said.
Mr. Ren presented a long list of other shortcomings. A “weak
industrial system and supporting capacity” is an obstacle to wider
deployment of renewable energy, Mr. Ren said. The “policy system” is
imperfect. There is little in-depth assessment and no “clear mechanisms
guided by objective,” he said. “Market monitoring mechanisms,” policy
coordination, public disclosure, legal frameworks, and security policies
are weak, he said.
Research and development also needs to be strengthened, Mr. Ren
said. Currently, China is weak in technological innovation. More R&D
funds and a “clear roadmap” are needed. Some Chinese-made renewable-
energy equipment is “technologically backward” and “lacks
competitiveness,” Mr. Ren said. The key technology, equipment, and raw
materials must be imported. As a result, China still is far from “high-
efficiency, large-scale development and utilization of renewable energy,”
he said.
Nevertheless, there is plenty of reason to push ahead. “The world
financial crisis has provided opportunities for leapfrogging forward in
renewable energies,” he said. “We should have strategic positioning and
strategic goals.” Advocates of clean energy “should neither be overly
optimistic nor overly pessimistic on this issue,” he said.
China is not backing off of its long-term goals. It aims to produce and
consume the equivalent of 700 million tons of coal in renewable energy
by 2020, about 10 percent of primary energy, Mr. Ren noted. By 2030,
the target is to have the equivalent of 1 billion tons of coal, 20 percent of
primary energy from non-fossil sources, and one-third by 2050, which
would be equal to 2 billion tons of coal. “By 2020, we hope renewable
energy will be an effective supplement,” Mr. Ren said. “By 2030, it will
become one of the mainstream energy sources. And by 2050, it will
become the main energy.”
In terms of strategic importance, wind power ranks first, Mr. Ren
said, wind ranks at the top. After that comes solar power, and then bio-
fuels. With wind power, he explained, China is focusing on developing
land-based systems and connecting them to the power grid. The
government also wants to advance industrialization of wind turbines. In
terms of solar power, China is focusing on thermal utilization technology
that is connected with architecture and the “balanced development of the
photovoltaic industry,” he said.
64 BUILDING THE 21ST CENTURY: U.S.-CHINA COOPERATION
China’s strategy in bio-fuels is to focus on biomass feed stocks that
do not require arable land or potable water. 11 That means “no robbing
people of their grains, no grabbing land from crops, no snatching water
sources from farm land, and no taking feed from livestock,” Mr. Ren
said. “As you know, China is a country that has just accomplished its
goal of feeding people,” he said. “So we will pay attention to liquid fuel
that will not consume grain or food.”
To go forward, China is developing a “comprehensive policy and
institutional framework” for renewable energy. This involves
strengthening laws and establishing a “very rational structure” for
government policy. “Economic and industrial policy should be
compatible with energy policy,” he said. Another element of the plan is
to nurture talent. China needs to “foster people who have the ability to
development renewable energy and to make decisions,” Mr. Ren said.
By implementing these measures, “China can improve its level of
development for renewable energy to reach the goal that we promised to
the world,” Mr. Ren said.
11
The conversion of agricultural land to grow crops for bio-fuels has been
blamed by some for food shortages and rising prices for crops such as corn,
commonly used to produce ethanol.