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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Global Change and Extreme Hydrology: Testing Conventional Wisdom. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13211.
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B

Agenda

A Workshop on Global Change and Extreme Hydrologic Events: Testing Conventional Wisdom Sponsored by the National Research Council Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS)

January 5: Precipitation and floods

8:00

Welcome and Introductions

Charles Vörösmarty, Chair, COHS

Agenda Overview and Workshop Goals

Dennis Lettenmaier and Victor R. Baker, COHS

8:15

Understanding Changes in Precipitation and Runoff with a Changing Climate

Kevin E. Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research

9:00

Global to Regional Perspectives on Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle: Implications for Extreme Events

Tom Huntington, U.S. Geological Survey

9:45

Is Precipitation Becoming More Intense?

Pavel Groisman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

10:45

A Process-Based “Bottom-Up” Approach for Addressing Changing Flood-Climate Relationships

Katie Hirschboeck, University of Arizona

11:30

The Ghosts of Flooding Past, Present, and Future

Harry R. Lins, U.S. Geological Survey

1:00

Planning for Non-Stationary Extreme Events: Statistical Approaches

Richard M. Vogel, Tufts University

1:45

Planning for Non-Stationarity and Floods: A Management Perspective

Gerald E. Galloway, University of Maryland

2:45

Breakout groups

Rapporteurs: Victor R. Baker and Dennis Lettenmaier

4:00

Rapporteurs report back and summary of research and operational needs

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Global Change and Extreme Hydrology: Testing Conventional Wisdom. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13211.
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January 6: Drought

8:30

Welcome and Day 2 Agenda Overview

Charles Vörösmarty, Chair, COHS

8:45

Synthesis of Day 1

Dennis Lettenmaier and Victor R. Baker, COHS

9:00

Mechanisms for Global Warming Impacts on the Large-Scale Atmospheric Branch of the Hydrological Cycle

Richard Seager, Columbia University

9:45

Connecting Global-Scale Variability to Regional Drought: Mechanisms and Modeling Challenges

Siegfried Schubert, NASA Goddard

10:45

Do We Need to Put Aquifers into Atmospheric Simulation Models? Evidence for Large Water Table Fluctuations and Groundwater Supported ET under Conditions of Pleistocene and Holocene Climate Change

Mark Person, New Mexico Tech

11:30

Breaking the Hydro-Illogical Cycle: The Status of Drought Risk Management in the U.S.

Mike Hayes, National Center for Drought Mitigation

1:00

Breakout groups

Rapporteurs: Victor R. Baker and Dennis Lettenmaier

3:00

Rapporteurs report back and summary of research and operational needs

4:00

Adjourn

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Global Change and Extreme Hydrology: Testing Conventional Wisdom. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13211.
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Page 22
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Global Change and Extreme Hydrology: Testing Conventional Wisdom. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13211.
×
Page 23
Next: Appendix C: Speaker Abstracts »
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Climate theory dictates that core elements of the climate system, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, and reservoirs of atmospheric and soil moisture, should change as the climate warms, both in their means and extremes. A major challenge that faces the climate and hydrologic science communities is understanding the nature of these ongoing changes in climate and hydrology and the apparent anomalies that exist in reconciling their extreme manifestations.

The National Research Council (NRC) Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS) held a workshop on January 5-6, 2010, that examined how climate warming translates into hydrologic extremes like floods and droughts. The workshop brought together three groups of experts. The first two groups consisted of atmospheric scientists and hydrologists focused on the scientific underpinnings and empirical evidence linking climate variability to hydrologic extremes. The third group consisted of water managers and decision-makers charged with the design and operation of water systems that in the future must be made resilient in light of a changing climate and an environment of hydrologic extremes.

Global Change and Extreme Hydrology summarizes the proceedings of this workshop. This report presents an overview of the current state of the science in terms of climate change and extreme hydrologic events. It examines the "conventional wisdom" that climate change will "accelerate" the hydrologic cycle, fuel more evaporation, and generate more precipitation, based on an increased capacity of a warmer atmosphere to hold more water vapor. The report also includes descriptions of the changes in frequency and severity of extremes, the ability (or inability) to model these changes, and the problem of communicating the best science to water resources practitioners in useful forums.

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