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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13216.
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The National Weather Service

MODERNIZATION

and Associated Restructuring

A RETROSPECTIVE ASSESSMENT

Committee on the Assessment of the
National Weather Service’s Modernization Program

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13216.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, N.W. • Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number DG133R08CQ0062, Task Order #8. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor or any of its sub agencies.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-21798-9
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-21798-9

Copies of this report are available from the program office:
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Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu

Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13216.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13216.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13216.
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COMMITTEE ON THE ASSESSMENT OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE’S MODERNIZATION PROGRAM

JOHN A. ARMSTRONG (Chair), Retired, IBM Corporation, Amherst, Massachusetts

JAMES D. DOYLE, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, California

WILLIAM B. GAIL, Microsoft Corporation and Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, Colorado

DAVID J. GOCHIS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

HOSHIN V. GUPTA, University of Arizona, Tucson

HOLLY HARTMANN, University of Arizona, Tucson

KEVIN A. KLOESEL, University of Oklahoma, Norman

NICHOLAS LAMPSON, Retired, United States House of Representatives, Beaumont, Texas

JOHN W. MADDEN, Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, Fort Richardson

GORDON MCBEAN, University of Western Ontario, Canada

DAVID J. MCLAUGHLIN, University of Massachusetts, Amherst

ADRIAN E. RAFTERY, University of Washington, Seattle

JAMES L. RASMUSSEN, Retired, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Frederick, Maryland

PAUL L. SMITH, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City

JOHN TOOHEY-MORALES, NBC-6 WTVJ-TV and ClimaData, Miami, Florida

NRC Staff

MAGGIE WALSER, Study Director

RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13216.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13216.
×

Preface

The Modernization and Associated Restructuring (MAR) of the National Weather Service (NWS) was a large and complex reengineering of a federal agency. The process lasted a decade and cost an estimated $4.5 billion. The result was greater integration of science into weather service activities and improved outreach and coordination with users of weather information. It was responsible for a marked increase in the accuracy and timeliness of forecast and warning services provided to the nation by the NWS. The modernized NWS was achieved through the development and deployment of new observational and computational systems and redefining the NWS field office structure to best utilize the investment in the new technologies.

The MAR was both necessary and generally well executed. However, it required revolutionary, often difficult, changes. The procurement of large, complex technical systems presented challenges in and of itself. The MAR also affected the career paths and personal lives of a large portion of the field office workforce. The MAR created a new, modernized NWS, and, significantly, it created a framework that will allow the NWS to keep up with technological changes in a more evolutionary manner. In addition to this new framework, the MAR also resulted in many “Lessons Learned” for the NWS. It is our hope that the NWS will apply the lessons we have identified in this report as they map their future direction.

This report contains the first part of the committee’s work, a retrospective assessment of the MAR with a focus on lessons learned from the effort to plan, deploy, and oversee the MAR. The second phase of our work will apply the lessons learned from the MAR to advise NWS on how best to plan, deploy, and oversee future improvements, and will be presented in a second report.

This congressionally requested report presents the first comprehensive assessment of the execution of the MAR and its impact on the provision of weather services in the United States. This assessment would not have been possible without the assistance of many of our colleagues in the weather enterprise. The committee would like to acknowledge the many individuals who briefed us, provided written information, or other technical information. They include Carl Bjerkaas, Gary Carter, Valery Dagostaro, Joe Facundo, George Frederick, Joe Friday, Mary Glackin, Richard Hallgren, Jack Hayes, Rick Heuwinkel, Richard Hirn, Fiona Horsfall, Jack Kelly, Chuck Kluepfel, Ken Kraus, Sandy MacDonald, Lauren Marone, Frank Misciasci, Joel Myers, Vickie Nadolski, Tim Owen, Maria Pirone, Bill Proenza, Barry Reichenbaugh, Buddy Ritchie, Jae-Kyung Schemm, Bob Serafin, John Sokich, Margaret Spring, Louis Uccellini, Rich Vogt, Glenn White, and Doug Young.

The committee is particularly grateful to the NWS staff who hosted committee member Weather Forecast Office (WFO) site visits. They include Pat Baye, Eric Boldt, Dave Carpenter, Brad Coleman, Glenn Field, Michael Foster, Bob Glancy, Gene Hafele, Robert Hopkins, Mark Jackson, Jayme Laber, Jim Lee, Harold Opitz, Robin Radlein, David Reynolds, Nezette Rydell, Glen Sampson, Susan Sanders, Pablo

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13216.
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Santos, Robert Thompson, Steve Todd, David Vallee, and Steve Zubrick.

We would also like to acknowledge the NWS staff who assisted with our survey of WFOs collocated with academic or other research institutions. They include Peter Ahnert, Jonathan Blaes, Bruce Budd, Dave Carpenter, Tony Hall, Ray O’Keefe, Rhett Milne, David Reynolds, Nezette Rydell, Glen Sampson, Dennis Staley, Ray Tanabe, and Mark Tew.

Our sincerest thanks are extended to Edward Johnson and John Sokich for providing information and helping with access to NWS staff and facilities. The committee is greatly indebted to Study Director Maggie Walser and to Senior Program Assistant Ricardo Payne for their expert support.

John A. Armstrong, Chair
Committee on the Assessment of
the National Weather Service’s
Modernization Program

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13216.
×

Acknowledgments

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report:

Leo Andreoli, Retired, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Corporation, Torrance, California

Grady Booch, IBM Research, Littleton, Colorado

William Hooke, American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC

Roger Pielke Sr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins

Maria Pirone, Harris Corporation, Washington, DC

Erik Pytlak, Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, Oregon

Robert Serafin, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

George Smith, Riverside Technology, Inc., Moneta, Virginia

Warren Washington, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Joseph Yura, Retired, University of Texas, Austin

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. Margaret LeMone, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO. Appointed by the Report Review Committee, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2012. The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13216.
×

Institutional oversight for this project was provided by

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park

GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

RICHARD CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia

GREG S. FORBES, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia

LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, New York, New York

ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey

ANTHONY JANETOS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland, College Park

HAROON S. KHESHGI, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey

MICHAEL D. KING, University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric & Space Physics, Boulder, Colorado

JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin, Madison

ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California

ROBERT J. LEMPERT, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California

ROGER B. LUKAS, University of Hawaii, Honolulu

SUMANT NIGAM, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, Maryland

RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, University of Chicago, Illinois

KIMBERLY PRATHER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

RICH RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, DC

DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, New Jersey

KIRK R. SMITH, University of California, Berkeley

JOHN T. SNOW, University of Oklahoma, Norman

CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey

XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson

NRC Staff

CHRIS ELFRING, Director

EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer

LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer

MAGGIE WALSER, Program Officer

KATIE WELLER, Associate Program Officer

LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant

RICARDO PAYNE, Senior Program Assistant

AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant

ELIZABETH FINKLEMAN, Program Assistant

GRAIG MANSFIELD, Financial Associate

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The Modernization and Associated Restructuring (MAR) of the National Weather Service (NWS) was a large and complex re-engineering of a federal agency. The process lasted a decade and cost an estimated $4.5 billion. The result was greater integration of science into weather service activities and improved outreach and coordination with users of weather information. The MAR created a new, modernized NWS, and, significantly, it created a framework that will allow the NWS to keep up with technological changes in a more evolutionary manner.

The MAR was both necessary and generally well executed. However, it required revolutionary, often difficult, changes. The procurement of large, complex technical systems presented challenges in and of itself. The MAR also affected the career paths and personal lives of a large portion of the field office workforce. The MAR created a new, modernized NWS, and, significantly, it created a framework that will allow the NWS to keep up with technological changes in a more evolutionary manner.

The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring presents the first comprehensive assessment of the execution of the MAR and its impact on the provision of weather services in the United States. This report provides an assessment that addresses the past modernization as well as lessons learned to support future improvements to NWS capabilities.

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