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2
Pre-Modernization Environment and Planning
T
his chapter focuses on the state of the National particularly in the West. The field office structure with
Weather Service (NWS) in the 1980s, prior approximately only one WSFO per state limited rela-
to the official start of the Modernization and tionships between forecasters and local communities,
Associated Restructuring (MAR) in 1989. During especially in states with large populations and multiple
the period preceding the MAR, improved radar and media markets.
other observation systems were already under devel-
opment, the numerical weather prediction operations Technology
at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) were
improving steadily, and the operational application of
Surface Observations
data and information from both polar orbiting and geo-
stationary satellites had become a critical component Prior to the MAR, NWS, Federal Aviation Admin-
of atmospheric observation and improved forecasting istration (FAA), and Department of Defense (DOD)
capability. However, the NWS could not fully realize staff manually made surface observations. Methods of
the benefits of these rapidly evolving technological weather observation had changed very little in the 100
improvements within their existing organizational years preceding the MAR (McNulty et al., 1990), and
structure, staffing, and physical infrastructure. The studies had found large variations in manual observa-
MAR execution objectives were to address this prob- tions from individual to individual, and from site to
lem, yielding several promised benefits. site (Chisholm and Kruse, 1974; Woodall, 1966). In
addition, the growing aviation industry increased the
demand for surface observations. The desire to better
PRE-MODERNIZATION
address mesoscale weather events (e.g., severe thunder-
WEATHER SERVICE
storms, hail, and tornadoes) required a denser network
In the 1980s, surface observations were being made of observing stations taking frequent and continuous
manually, and were often inconsistent between observ- observations.
ers and locations. Forecaster workstations, themselves a The NWS and FAA teamed with the DOD (i.e.,
fairly recent innovation, operated across multiple com- Air Force and Navy) to begin the process of replac-
puting systems, all with limited computational capabil- ing manual surface observations at approximately 250
ity. The NWS radar network was composed of three airports, which were not always recorded around the
different types of radars that could determine echo clock, with the Automated Surface Observing Sys-
structure and intensity, important for tornado detec- tem (ASOS). The three agencies designed ASOS to
tion and forecasts, but had no capability to measure improve upon the manual surface observation practices
wind speeds; there were significant gaps in coverage, and standards, operate 24 hours a day, seven days a
11
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12 THE NWS MODERNIZATION AND RESTRUCTURING: A RETROSPECTIVE ASSESSMENT
week, and increase the spatial resolution of surface Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). By the late 1960s
observations by expanding from 250 to almost 1,000 it was evident that the technology could reveal storm
airports around the country. The network was intended signatures of potential value in forecast and warning
to automate the observation and dissemination of applications (Donaldson et al., 1969); a tornado vortex
temperature, dew point, visibility, wind direction, wind signature was identified in the echoes from a 1973
speed, barometric pressure, cloud height and amount, Oklahoma storm (Burgess et al., 1975). However, it
and the type and amount of precipitation. The goal took the introduction of real-time computing and the
was acquisition of spatially and temporally uniform development of color display technology in the early
measurements, continuous observation and reporting, 1970s to provide a means for bringing the data from
and more observing sites nationwide. a single Doppler radar to meteorologists in a conve-
niently usable fashion.
In the mid-1970s the NWS jointly teamed with the
Radar
DOD and the Department of Transportation (DOT)
The NWS weather radar system in the 1980s in anticipation of the need to replace the WSR-57,
comprised some fifty-odd WSR-57 and WSR-74S WSR-74, and FPS-77 radars deployed over the pre-
( Weather Surveillance Radar) S-band “network” radars ceding 20 years, to form the Joint Doppler Operational
and nearly seventy WSR-74C C-band “local warning” Project ( JDOP; Whiton et al., 1998). The experiments
radars. These radars displayed the storm echo pat- and tests performed at NSSL and by the NWS and
terns and measured radar reflectivity, related to storm USAF Air Weather Service in 1976 and 1977 showed
intensity, in a semi-quantitative manner. Coverage at that Doppler radar provided much earlier detection of
mid-levels for the atmosphere was fairly broad east of severe and tornadic storms, and could also detect gust
the Rockies, but only spotty farther west. The WSR- fronts that might present a hazard to flight operations
57s in particular were aging and becoming difficult and at airports.
expensive to maintain. Thus the need for a replacement On the basis of the successful JDOP demonstration
system in the not too distant future was becoming of the potential value of Doppler radar to the missions of
pronounced. the NWS, the USAF, and the FAA, development of the
Fortunately, the development of the Next Genera- NEXRAD system got under way in earnest in 1979: the
tion Weather Radar (NEXRAD) was well under way Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological
long before the nominal beginning of the MAR. Early Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) approved
work using 3.2 cm (X-band) wavelength short-range a NEXRAD concept document and established a tri-
continuous-wave (CW) Doppler radar technology agency NEXRAD Program Council (NPC); the NPC
had demonstrated capability to detect tornadic wind approved formation of a Radar Test and Development
speeds (Smith and Holmes, 1961) in addition to mea- Branch (later to become the Interim Operational Test
suring reflectivity. However, that system was limited Facility, then the Operational Support Facility, and
by inability to determine range to the target and by e ventually the Radar Operations Center); and the
problems with loss of signal intensity in conditions Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directed
involving precipitation. For routine operational appli- the OFCM to conduct a tri-agency cross-cut study for
cations, the development of pulse-Doppler technology NEXRAD. Finally, NOAA approved establishment of
for long-range weather radar (at longer wavelengths a NEXRAD Joint System Program Office ( JSPO) to
less subject to attenuation) was needed to furnish both move forward with the development, contract award,
range and velocity information (Whiton et al., 1998). and deployment of a NEXRAD network. An NRC
Improvements in data processing and display technol- report (NRC, 1980) added momentum to the effort
ogy were also needed to present the information in to implement an operational Doppler weather radar
usable formats. capability. The NPC formed a NEXRAD Technical
Work on the pulse-Doppler technology also began Advisory Committee in 1980 to provide recommen-
around the late-1950s (Rogers, 1990), first under U.S. dations on newly-developed capabilities that are ready
Air Force (USAF) auspices and later at the National for implementation as well as engineering and scien-
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13
PRE-MODERNIZATION ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING
tific developments needed to improve the NEXRAD With the costs of wideband communication links at the
capabilities. Thus the NEXRAD development process time, the principal users had to be located not far from
was under way well before the nominal beginning of the radar site proper. In some cases the radar site was
the MAR. In fact, the NEXRAD system was eventu- to be moved from city locations (which suffered from
ally designated officially as the WSR-88D, the “88” extensive ground clutter, a “cone of silence” or coverage
signifying the year when the basic design was finalized, gap, and radio frequency interference [RFI] problems)
the year before the MAR officially began. to more rural locations. While new or modified opera-
Congress appropriated the first funding for tional offices or centers were specifically not part of
NEXRAD in the fall of 1980. The JSPO issued Joint the NEXRAD system at this stage (though the costs
Operational Requirements and NEXRAD Technical for such things were later included in the estimated
Requirements (NTR) documents in 1981 to initiate cost of the NEXRAD system; GAO, 1991a), under
the process of system development and procurement the restructuring some of those locations also became
( Whiton et al., 1998). Work by the three System Defi- preferred locations for the new WFOs.
nition Phase contractors indicated that modifications
to the NTR would be needed to define an affordable Satellites
system. With those revisions accomplished two Valida-
tion Phase contractors began work in 1983; this phase, The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and
including Initial Operational Test and Evaluation (Part Information Service (NESDIS) is the National Oce-
1), was completed in 1987 and led to the selection anic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) line
of the Unisys design for the Limited and Full-Scale office responsible for satellites and in this capacity was
Production phases. During that period a different a major contributor to the MAR. Only a combination
vendor promoted the idea of using C-band radars as a of geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites can pro-
less expensive alternative to the S-band design, but a vide the spatial and temporal coverage and resolution
1985 “Blue Ribbon Panel” headed by Raymond Kam- required to measure the atmosphere and Earth system
mer reviewed the revised NEXRAD requirements for weather and climate information. As early as the
and found them to be “on target” and directly related late 1980s and early 1990s there was an understanding
to weather and public safety needs (ROC, 2011; U.S. that modernization of the observing satellite systems
Congress, 1985). The Unisys prototype arrived at the was expected to lead to improvements in Numeri-
Operational Support Facility (OSF) in late 1988 for cal Weather Prediction (NWP). NWP models use
further operational test and evaluation, with production input data describing temperature, moisture, and wind
readiness established at the end of 1989—by which parameters in the atmosphere. These data are obtained
time the official MAR was under way. via various observation technologies; however, none
Meanwhile, the site-survey contractor had begun are as globally complete and areally consistent as those
work in 1983 to identify prospective sites for the from satellite data. Upgrades to the sounders, includ-
NEXRAD network. A NEXRAD Siting Handbook ing microwave sounders, were of particular interest to
issued in 1983 ( JSPO, 1983) outlined the planned NWP.
approach for deploying the radars. Insofar as possible, Geostationary satellites, consistently stationed
existing radar sites or other user facilities were to be above the same point on Earth, are important for near-
used, simplifying problems of land acquisition, site continuous monitoring of the tropics and mid-latitudes
access, and utilities. Guidance in the Siting Handbook within a hemispheric view, but do not capture the polar
indicated that radar coverage was to be the primary regions as well. A set of polar orbiting satellites, each
requirement. After preliminary surveys, in-depth sur- crossing above the equator at a different local time,
veys were conducted of promising candidate sites. A work together to provide coverage of the entire Earth,
detailed report was prepared for each survey, focusing including the poles. Each polar satellite observes a given
on coverage and cost issues (including particularly the point on Earth’s surface and the atmosphere above it
cost of wideband communication between the radar only twice a day. Although the polar system observa-
site and the location of the principal users of the data). tions have lower temporal resolution in comparison
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14 THE NWS MODERNIZATION AND RESTRUCTURING: A RETROSPECTIVE ASSESSMENT
to those from the geostationary system, they have the of the MAR and was one of the major components of
advantage of being at a higher spatial resolution due the modernization. Kalnay et al. (1998) document the
to the much lower orbital altitude. In addition, the evolution of numerical weather prediction techniques
temperature and vapor soundings derived from polar within the NWS against the backdrop of evolving
orbiters have better vertical resolution. The complete computing capacity from the 1950s through the mid-
global coverage that the sounder data provides is used 1990s. Computing capacity increased approximately
for initiation of global NWP models. In addition, the six orders of magnitude (in terms of “flops” or “floating
polar-orbiting satellites provide better all-weather point operations per second”) since the NWS under-
performance. took NWP activities in the late 1950s. Two emerging
The launch of the Television Infrared Observation capabilities helped define and drive the MAR objec-
Satellite (TIROS-1) in 1960 began significant strides tives for more uniform and scientifically-based forecast
forward in synoptic scale weather interpretation with products: the power to generate timely and accurate
routine global cloud observations from the system of information content and the uniformity of nationally
polar orbiting satellites (NRC, 1999b). The images distributable forecast products afforded by the grow-
proved valuable in data-sparse areas, particularly in ing computational capacity. Managing, disseminating,
detecting and tracking tropical storms over the oceans and interpreting this expanding volume of information
(NRC, 1997b). content required changes in many areas. The downscal-
Beginning with the launch of the Applications ing of numerical prediction results to specific guidance
Technology Satellite (ATS-1) in geostationary orbit in information that forecasters could utilize for their
1966, meteorologists obtained full disk images of Earth specific location was another important development.
and its cloud cover every 20 minutes. The spin scan
cloud camera implemented on the ATS-1 geostation- Forecaster Workstations
ary platform enabled observations of weather systems
in motion during daytime (Purdom, 1996). Since then, Before the deployment in the late 1970s and early
each new series of geostationary satellites has incor- 1980s of the Automation of Field Operations and Ser-
porated improvements in both instruments and data vices (AFOS), a computer-based forecaster workstation
provision. Improvements in the instruments included technology, the communication infrastructure of the
addition of infrared and microwave channels to the vis- NWS consisted of teletypewriter and facsimile circuits.
ible channels on the imager, allowing nighttime obser- AFOS consisted of a set of mini-computers and tele-
vations, and addition of a sounder capability to observe phone communication systems organized as “regional
the vertical structure of the atmosphere. Since its first loops” supported by hub-and-spoke networks that
launch in 1975, the Geostationary Operational Envi- interconnected each Weather Service Forecast Office
ronmental Satellite (GOES) data has been a critical and its Weather Service Offices. The communications
part of NWS operations by providing cloud and water system was vulnerable to failure, especially in severe
vapor imagery to the National Centers through direct weather conditions (high winds, ice storms, etc.). In
receipt. The GOES series of satellites also began to the late-1980s, the AFOS system became increasingly
assist in provision and transmission of additional data. technologically obsolete and not worth modification or
For example, starting in the mid-1970s the GOES upgrading (NBS, 1988). Major advances in meteoro-
Data Collection System (DCS) was implemented, logical instrumentation and measurement techniques
allowing for the relay of data from remote, ground- were providing new data and information, contribut-
based data collection platforms through the satellite to ing to improved weather forecasting and warning.
a central processing facility. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing Sys-
tem (AWIPS) project addressed the AFOS problem
and was intended to harness the rapidly advancing
National Centers Computing Capacity
technologies. AWIPS later served as the backbone of
The need to modernize computational capacity at the MAR, providing forecasters with a system to use
NWS national centers was well recognized at the time all available NWS sources of data. The first release
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15
PRE-MODERNIZATION ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING
ernization of the NWS (U.S. Congress, 1988).1 The
of AWIPS was not a true “modern architecture” but
a lengthy set of codes operating on updated, higher strategic plan would set forth the basic service improve-
throughput, hardware. The software was later rewritten ment objectives of the modernization. It would describe
to become the modern, modular, open architecture it the critical new technology components as well as the
is today that can accommodate upgrades and improve- associated staff and operational changes necessary to
ments such as AWIPS-II, presently being staged for fulfill the objectives of weather and flood forecasting
operational deployment. and warning service improvements.
In response to the Congressional request, the NWS
prepared, in March 1989, the Strategic Plan for the Mod-
Operations
ernization and Associated Restructuring of the National
The NWS had a two-tiered office structure prior to Weather Service. The Strategic Plan stated the objective
the MAR. The first tier of 52 Weather Service Forecast of the MAR as follows:
Offices (WSFOs), about one per state, had a core com- [t]o modernize the NWS through the deployment
ponent of professional meteorologists. The WSFOs of proven observational, information processing and
prepared general forecasts for their assigned region of communications technologies, and to establish an
associated cost effective operational structure. The
responsibility and provided severe weather warnings for
modernization and associated restructuring of NWS
their immediate local area covered by the station radar.
shall assure that the major advances which have been
They also recorded local observations and often had
made in our ability to observe and understand the
upper-air radiosonde observing responsibility. The sec- atmosphere are applied to the practical problems of
ond tier of 204 Weather Service Offices (WSOs) was providing weather and hydrologic services to the Na-
staffed with observers and meteorological technicians. tion (NWS, 1989).
Some WSOs had local weather radars and had local
The Strategic Plan emphasized that the MAR
responsibility for issuing severe weather warnings. All
would be dependent on the development and imple-
WSOs had surface observing responsibility and some
mentation of several major technologies including
performed upper-air observations. Some WSOs were
open only part time.
• Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS):
It is difficult to obtain comprehensive data regard-
an automated electronic sensor instrument system to
ing the skill level, or performance metrics, of the NWS
replace manual weather observations at all NWS (and
general weather forecasting prior to and during the
many other) surface observing locations, and increase
MAR. Forecast verification data is collected centrally,
the number of observing locations;
and is made available to NOAA employees, and to
• Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD):
other government employees and researchers on a
a network of advanced Doppler radars to measure
case-by-case basis. However, some data are available
the motions of the atmosphere responsible for severe
for tornado and flash flood warnings (see Figure 4.3).
weather such as tornadoes, to detect heavy rainfall and
For example, in the late 1980s, about 40 percent of
hail, and to increase lead times for prediction and warn-
tornado occurrences were detected, with an average
ing of severe weather events and flash floods;
warning lead time of five minutes and a false alarm
• Satellite Upgrades: a new series of geostationary
rate of about 80 percent. There was a similar detection
meteorological satellites to provide higher spatial and
rate of about 40 percent for flash floods, with a warning
temporal resolution imagery and data to aid shorter-
lead time of near 10 minutes, and a false alarm ratio of
range forecasts and warnings, and a new series of polar
about 60 percent.
orbiting meteorological satellites to provide improved,
EXECUTION OBJECTIVES
1 Public Law 100-685 was later replaced by Public Law 102-
In November 1988, via Public Law 100-685, Con-
567, which included the same requirements for a Strategic Plan and
gress instructed the Secretary of Commerce to prepare National Implementation Plan as well as more detailed guidance for
a 10-year strategic plan for the comprehensive mod- the execution of the MAR.
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16 THE NWS MODERNIZATION AND RESTRUCTURING: A RETROSPECTIVE ASSESSMENT
all-weather, atmospheric data to assist in longer term degradation of weather services provided to the affected
forecasting; area” (U.S. Congress, 1992). An independent advisory
• National Centers Advanced Computer Sys- committee, the Modernization Transition Committee
tems: a t en-fold increase in computing power to (MTC), was established to provide a review of each certi-
support the National Centers. Along with numerical fication and advise the Secretary (U.S. Congress, 1992).
weather prediction model improvements, this improved
national guidance for forecasts and warnings; and PROMISED BENEFITS
• Advanced Weather Interactive Processing
System (AWIPS): an advanced computer and commu- The overall objective of the MAR was to improve
nications system to help forecasters integrate all sources weather services while simultaneously establishing a
of weather data. The system allowed communication more cost efficient organization. The specific benefits
between each weather forecast office and distribution of the NWS hoped to achieve with the MAR included
centrally collected data and centrally produced analysis
and guidance products, as well as satellite data and • more uniform weather services across the Nation;
imagery (NWS, 1989). • improved forecasts;
• more reliable detection and prediction of severe
In Public Law 100-685, Congress also requested weather and flooding;
that one year after submission of the Strategic Plan, • more cost effective NWS; and
the NWS prepare and submit an initial implementa- • higher productivity for NWS employees (NWS,
tion plan with annual revisions. The NWS published 1989).
in March 1990 The National Implementation Plan for
The NIP, while still stating the overall objectives of
the Modernization and Associated Restructuring of the
National Weather Service (NIP). The NIP planned a the MAR as stated in the Strategic Plan, expanded and
transition to the modernized NWS that would be clarified the list of specific goals to include
driven by service requirements and accomplished in
two distinct stages. This staging was associated with the • operational realization of a predictive warn-
period of time between the deployment of new observa- ing program focusing on mesoscale meteorology and
tional systems such as ASOS and NEXRAD, and that hydrology;
of the new information processing system, AWIPS. • advancement of the science of meteorology and
The staging would provide a stabilization period to hydrology;
allow field offices to adjust to, and gain familiarity with, • development of NWS human resources to
the new Doppler radar system and data, and high reso- achieve maximum benefit from recent scientific and
lution surface observation data (NWS, 1990). technical advances;
Stage 1 would be characterized by an improve- • user acceptance and support of NWS modern-
ment in severe weather detection capability. This ization and associated restructuring service improve-
would result from meteorological interpretation of the ment objectives;
new and enhanced observational data made available • strengthening cooperation with the mass media,
by the deployment of ASOS and NEXRAD (NWS, universities, the research community, and the private
1990). Stage 2 would be characterized by operation of hydrometeorological sector to collectively fulfill the
a reliable predictive warning program. Forecasters using Nation’s weather information needs from provision of
AWIPS would have the necessary tools to integrate, severe weather warnings and general forecasts for the
analyze, and interpret all the various data and informa- public as a whole, which is a Government responsibility;
tion, and rapidly disseminate products (NWS, 1990). to provision of detailed and customer specific weather
Congress required that no WSFO or WSO be closed, information, which is a private sector responsibility;
consolidated, automated, or relocated unless the Secretary • achievement of productivity gains through
of Commerce certified to the appropriate Congressional automation and replacement of obsolete technological
committees that “such action would not result in any systems; and
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17
PRE-MODERNIZATION ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING
• operation of the optimum NWS warning and MAR, the NWS would have obtained the capability
forecast system consistent with service requirements, to forecast and warn of severe weather events with lead
user acceptability, and affordability (NWS, 1990). times of tens of minutes and with increased geographic
specificity.
By the end of Stage 2 of the implementation of the
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