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1
Introduction
T
he mission of the National Weather Service Forecast Offices and Weather Service Offices with
( NWS) is to “provide weather, water, and Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), with principal staff-
climate forecasts and warnings for the United ing by professional meteorologists supported by meteo-
States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, rological technicians. Each office would have roughly
for the protection of life and property and the enhance- the same size staff and area of responsibility—an area
ment of the national economy. NWS data and products sized to allow for effective outreach and coordination
form a national information database and infrastructure with the user community, including the media and
which can be used by other governmental agencies, emergency management agencies. It was determined
the private sector, the public, and the global com- that about 120 WFOs evenly distributed across the
munity” (NWS, 2011b). Public, marine, and aviation country would be adequate to provide the services
forecasts are provided routinely by the NWS, as well required.
as unscheduled short- and long-fused advisories and In addition to the forecast office changes, impor-
life-saving warnings when conditions warrant. Seasonal tant technological changes were planned and imple-
and longer-term climate forecasts and warnings are also mented. Surface meteorological observations would be
provided by NWS, and its observations are a critical automated and improved, allowing for the redeploy-
part of the long-term climate record.1 ment of staff positions to result in a workforce focus-
In the 1980s, it became clear that to take advantage ing on severe weather forecasts and warnings, and user
of new technologies in the most cost effective manner, community outreach. A Doppler radar network would
and to provide better weather services to the nation, the be designed to give as complete national coverage as
NWS needed to change. The concept of a modernized possible. The National Environmental Satellite, Data,
and restructured weather service with a single tiered and Information Service (NESDIS) would develop and
office structure, as contrasted with the existing two- deploy a new series of satellites in both geostationary
tiered structure, emerged. A central part of this plan and polar orbits. Computer upgrades would allow the
would be to replace the network of Weather Service National Meteorological Center (NMC) to continue
to improve numerical weather prediction products used
by the forecaster as guidance in forecast and warning
1 Climate describes the variable aspects of the air-water-land
surface system that operate at time scales longer than weather, typi- development. Finally, an advanced data processing and
cally beyond two weeks to a month. Thus a climate record is a long
communications system would be the heart of the rede-
term (multiple years) record of observation data for temperature,
signed NWS forecast office, providing an interactive
precipitation, and other variables. Routine NWS climate forecasts
include 6- to 10-day climate forecasts, 8- to 14-day forecasts, display and work platform with access to all data and
monthly forecasts, and seasonal outlooks with lead times of 12.5
information from radars, surface and upper-air obser-
months. Climate warnings include hazard assessments, drought
vations, satellite imagery, and output from the NMC.
outlooks, and warnings of emerging large-scale climate patterns
Data from local networks would also be accommodated
such as El Niño and La Niña.
7
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8 THE NWS MODERNIZATION AND RESTRUCTURING: A RETROSPECTIVE ASSESSMENT
(NWS, 1989, 1990). The comprehensive strategy for
BOX 1.1 Committee on the Assessment of
reorganizing the field office structure and upgrading
the National Weather Service’s Modernization
observing and forecasting technologies would be called
Program Statement of Task
the National Weather Service Modernization and
Associated Restructuring (MAR). During the 1980s and 1990s, NOAA launched a major pro-
gram to modernize the National Weather Service (NWS), investing
Between 1989 and 2000, the nation invested an
$4.5 billion to modernize NWS technologies to advance weather
estimated $4.5 billion to implement the MAR (GAO,
forecasting. No complete assessment of the entire end-to-end
1997a, 1998a). New observational and computational NWS modernization enterprise has been done, thus Congress has
systems were planned and deployed, and the NWS field asked the National Academy of Sciences to conduct an assessment
office structure was redefined around new concepts for of the now-completed National Weather Service modernization.
observing, forecasting, and service delivery to capitalize The project should not only address the past modernization, but
also focus on lessons learned to support future improvements
on the investments in these new systems. The NWS
to NWS capabilities. It should address high-impact weather and
workforce was restructured around these concepts and
new science and technologies that allow for even better forecasts;
substantial investments in training and recruitment the integration of new technologies and better models into NWS
developed a more professional workforce with the skills operations; workforce composition and structure; and improv-
necessary for the modernized NWS. Overall, the MAR ing current partnerships with private industry, academia, and
led to a greater integration of science into weather ser- other governmental agencies. Finally, the project should provide
advice on how NWS can best plan, deploy, and oversee these
vice activities and improved outreach and coordination
future improvements based on lessons learned from the NWS
with state and local government, emergency manage-
modernization.
ment, local media, and communities. The technological
improvements provided forecasters with a wealth of
new data and observations, allowing them to provide
more accurate and timely forecast and warning services STUDY APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY
for time scales of minutes to weeks, time scales that
The committee was formed in the fall of 2010 and
were the focus of the MAR.
will complete their charge over the course of approxi-
mately two years. To carry out the first part of its charge,
STUDY CONTEXT AND CHARGE TO THE
the committee held three in-person meetings during
COMMITTEE
which they heard input from a range of stakeholders
and participants in the MAR. The committee reviewed
The MAR was officially completed in 2000. No
the literature, oversight reports, NWS documents,
comprehensive assessment of the execution of the
and other relevant information, and met by phone. A
MAR plan, or comparison of the promised benefits
critical aspect of the committee’s information gathering
of the MAR to its actual impact, has been conducted.
process was visiting several WFOs. Each committee
Therefore, Congress asked the National Academy of
member visited their local WFO, spoke with staff about
Sciences to conduct an end-to-end assessment that
their perspectives on the MAR, and saw the MAR
addresses the past modernization as well as lessons
technologies in action. In addition, the committee sent
learned to support future improvements to NWS capa-
a questionnaire to WFOs colocated with university or
bilities (U.S. Congress, 2009; Box 1.1).
other research facilities to assess the effects of the MAR
This report contains Phase I of the committee’s
on weather research and the transition of research-to-
work, a retrospective assessment of the entire NWS
operations, as well as the partnership between NWS
modernization program with a focus on lessons learned
and academia. This report is an assessment of the MAR
from the effort to plan, deploy, and oversee the mod-
and, as such, only considers technologies and other
ernization. Phase II of the committee’s work will be
aspects of weather services that were officially part of
presented in a later report. Phase II will apply the les-
the MAR planning and execution, as described in the
sons learned in Phase I to provide NWS with recom-
Strategic Plan (NWS, 1989). With the passage of time
mendations on how best to plan, deploy, and oversee
some records of events relevant to the MAR have gone
future improvements.
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9
INTRODUCTION
missing, and many of the people involved are no longer from 1989 to 2000. The discussion is structured around
with us. That makes it difficult for the committee to six major elements of the MAR: (1) management and
reconstruct a comprehensive history, and some gaps in planning; (2) modernization of technology; (3) restruc-
this assessment are therefore inevitable. turing of forecasts offices and staff; (4) national centers;
(5) partnerships; and (6) oversight and advisory groups.
Chapter 4 describes the Impact of the Modernization
ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT
and Associated Restructuring, comparing the results
This report is organized chronologically. Chapter of the MAR with the Promised Benefits discussed in
2, Pre-Modernization Environment and Planning, Chapter 2, and covering the period after 2000. The dis-
summarizes the state of weather observation and fore- cussion is structured around the same six components
casting technologies, as well as NWS operations and as Chapter 3, as well as a discussion of some additional
organizational structure in the 1980s. Finally, the chap- impacts. Both Chapters 3 and 4 present specific Find-
ter describes both the Execution Objectives and the ings about the major aspects of the MAR. Finally,
Promised Benefits of the MAR. Chapter 3 describes Chapter 5 presents the committee’s Key Findings about
the Execution of the Modernization and Associated the MAR as a whole and an assessment of the lessons
Restructuring, comparing it to the Execution Objec- learned from the committee’s analysis of the execution
tives discussed in Chapter 2, and covering the period and impact of the MAR.
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