in the sense that individuals exposed later will not require prophylaxis as soon as those exposed immediately and thus will fare better as a result of any dispensing campaign.

2. X = for any particular individual, the time from DTD to that person’s prophylaxis. The value of X is not just clearly different for each individual, but is an uncertain quantity for any individual. In other words, for any individual, X is a random variable.

3. The probability distribution Φ(x) for X can be interpreted to be either:

Φ(x) = probability that a randomly selected individual will experience a time X less than or equal to x, or, equivalently,

Φ(x) = the fraction of randomly selected individuals who will experience a time X less than or equal to x.

4. g = goal for the points of dispensing (PODs) for the time from start of dispensing MCM to completion. Using the simplifying assumptions that the size of the dispensing staff is constant, that staff are never idle, and that the service time is constant at the PODs, it can readily be shown that, given the goal g for the time from starting to completing dispensing, the distribution function for X is uniform:

image

with associated density function:

image

5. T = time from exposure to prophylaxis (TTP) = image + X. It follows from the definition of X that T is a random variable with probability density function p(t), where

image

6. The survival function f(t) represents, for any particular release scenario, one of the various incubation period curves or values discussed at length in Chapter 2, where t is the time since exposure. As pointed out in Chapter 2,



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