An Interim Report on NASA’s
Draft Space Technology Roadmaps

Steering Committee for the NASA Technology Roadmap
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                    OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

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An Interim Report on NASA’s Draft Space Technology Roadmaps Steering Committee for the NASA Technology Roadmap Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH10CD04B between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-21875-7 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-21875-6 Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Other Reports of the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs [prepublication version] (Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2011) Preparing for the High Frontier⎯the Role and Training of NASA Astronauts in the Post-Space Shuttle Era [prepublication version] (ASEB, 2011) Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era [prepublication version] (Space Studies Board [SSB] with ASEB, 2011) Summary of the Workshop to Identify Gaps and Possible Directions for NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (ASEB, 2011) Advancing Aeronautical Safety: A Review of NASA’s Aviation Safety-Related Research Programs (ASEB, 2010) Capabilities for the Future: An Assessment of NASA Laboratories for Basic Research (Laboratory Assessments Board with ASEB, 2010) Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth-Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Final Report (SSB with ASEB, 2010) Final Report of the Committee to Review Proposals to the 2010 Ohio Third Frontier (OTF) Wright Projects Program (WPP) (ASEB, 2010) America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Approaches to Future Space Cooperation and Competition in a Globalizing World: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2009) An Assessment of NASA’s National Aviation Operations Monitoring Service (ASEB, 2009) Final Report of the Committee for the Review of Proposals to the 2009 Engineering and Physical Science Research and Commercialization Program of the Ohio Third Frontier Program (ASEB, 2009) Fostering Visions for the Future: A Review of the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (ASEB, 2009) Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Radioisotope Power Systems: An Imperative for Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2009) Assessing the Research and Development Plan for the Next Generation Air Transportation System: Summary of a Workshop (ASEB, 2008) A Constrained Space Exploration Technology Program: A Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program (ASEB, 2008) Launching Science: Science Opportunities Provided by NASA’s Constellation System (SSB with ASEB, 2008) Managing Space Radiation Risk in the New Era of Space Exploration (ASEB, 2008) NASA Aeronautics Research: An Assessment (ASEB, 2008) Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program: An Interim Report (ASEB, 2008) Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA’s Constellation System: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2008) United States Civil Space Policy: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2008) Wake Turbulence: An Obstacle to Increased Air Traffic Capacity (ASEB, 2008) Limited copies of ASEB reports are available free of charge from Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-2858/aseb@nas.edu www.nationalacademies.org/aseb iv

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STEERING COMMITTEE ON THE NASA TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP RAYMOND S. COLLADAY, RC Space Enterprises, Inc., Chair JOHN D. ANDERSON, JR., Smithsonian Institution JAMES B. ARMOR, JR., ATK, Spacecraft System & Services EDWARD F. CRAWLEY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RAVI B. DEO, EMBR WALT FAULCONER, Strategic Space Solutions, LLC PHILIP D. HATTIS, The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc. TAMARA E. JERNIGAN, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory JOHN C. KARAS, Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company JOHN M. KLINEBERG, Loral Space and Communications, Ltd. (retired) IVETT A. LEYVA, Air Force Research Laboratory LESTER L. LYLES, The Lyles Group H. JAY MELOSH, Purdue University DANIEL R. MULVILLE, Independent Consultant DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RICHARD R. PAUL, Independent Consultant LISELOTTE J. SCHIOLER, National Institute of Aerospace GERALD SCHUBERT, University of California, Los Angeles PROPULSION AND POWER PANEL JOHN R. ROGACKI, Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition, Chair DOUGLAS M. ALLEN, Independent Consultant HENRY W. BRANDHORST, JR., Carbon-Free Energy, LLC DAVID E. CROW, University of Connecticut ALEC D. GALLIMORE, University of Michigan MARK W. HENLEY, Boeing Research and Technology ANTHONY K. HYDER, University of Notre Dame IVETT A. LEYVA, Air Force Research Laboratory PAULO LOZANO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOYCE A. McDEVITT, Independent Consultant ROGER M. MYERS, Aerojet General Corporation LAWRENCE J. ROSS, Aerospace Engineering Associates, LLC RAYMOND J. SEDWICK, University of Maryland GEORGE F. SOWERS, United Launch Alliance ROBOTICS, COMMUNICATIONS, AND NAVIGATION PANEL STEPHEN P. GOREVAN, Honeybee Robotics, Ltd., Chair JULIE A. ADAMS, Vanderbilt University EDWARD J. GROTH III, Princeton University PHILIP D. HATTIS, The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc. JONATHAN P. HOW, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JAMES W. LOWRIE, Lockheed Martin Missile and Fire Control-Orlando DAVID P. MILLER, University of Oklahoma JONATHAN SALTON, Sandia National Laboratories DONNA L. SHIRLEY, Managing Creativity GEORGE W. SWENSON, JR. University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign v

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INSTRUMENTS AND COMPUTING PANEL JAMES L. BURCH, Southwest Research Institute, Chair PHILIP E. ARDANUY, Raytheon Intelligence and Information Systems WEBSTER CASH, University of Colorado, Boulder JOHN A. HACKWELL, The Aerospace Corporation ROBERT J. HANISCH, Space Telescope Science Institute DAVID Y. KUSNIERKIEWICZ, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory JOEL R. PRIMACK, University of California, Santa Cruz GERALD SCHUBERT, University of California, Los Angeles DANIEL A. SCHWARTZ, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics ALAN M. TITLE, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center DANIEL WINTERHALTER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory CARL WUNSCH, Massachusetts Institute of Technology HUMAN HEALTH AND SURFACE EXPLORATION PANEL BONNIE J. DUNBAR, Independent Consultant, Chair DAVID L. AKIN, University of Maryland, College Park DALLAS G. BIENHOFF, The Boeing Company ROBERT L. CURBEAM, JR., ARES Corporation GREGORY J. HARBAUGH, Sigma Chi Foundation TAMARA E. JERNIGAN, E.O. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory DANIEL R. MASYS, University of Washington, Seattle ERIC E. RICE, Orbital Technologies Corporation RONALD E. TURNER, ANSER MATERIALS PANEL MOOL C. GUPTA, University of Virginia, Chair GREGORY R. BOGART, Sandia National Laboratories DONALD M. CURRY, The Boeing Company JOHN R. HOWELL, University of Texas, Austin GEORGE A. LESIEUTRE, Pennsylvania State University LISELOTTE J. SCHIOLER, National Institute of Aerospace ROBERT E. SKELTON, University of California, San Diego GEORGE W. SUTTON, SPARTA (retired) ENTRY, DESCENT, AND LANDING PANEL TODD J. MOSHER, Sierra Nevada Corporation, Chair JOHN D. ANDERSON, JR., Smithsonian Institution TYE M. BRADY, The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc. BASIL HASSAN, Sandia National Laboratories STEPHEN RUFFIN, Georgia Institute of Technology ROBERT J. SINCLAIR, Airborne Systems of North America BYRON D. TAPLEY, University of Texas, Austin BETH E. WAHL, Independent Consultant GERALD D. WAHLBERG, North Carolina State University (retired) vi

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Staff ALAN C. ANGLEMAN, Senior Program Officer, Study Director JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Senior Program Officer IAN W. PRYKE, Senior Program Officer ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer JOHN WENDT, Senior Program Officer MAUREEN MELLODY, Program Officer CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor DIONNA WILLIAMS, Program Associate TERRI BAKER, Senior Project Assistant RODNEY HOWARD, Senior Project Assistant LINDA WALKER, Senior Project Assistant MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board vii

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AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD RAYMOND S. COLLADAY, RC Space Enterprises, Inc., Chair LESTER LYLES, The Lyles Group, Vice Chair ELLA M. ATKINS, University of Michigan AMY L. BUHRIG, Boeing Commercial Airplanes Group INDERJIT CHOPRA, University of Maryland, College Park JOHN-PAUL B. CLARKE, Georgia Institute of Technology RAVI B. DEO, EMBR VIJAY DHIR, University of California, Los Angeles EARL H. DOWELL, Duke University MICA R. ENDSLEY, SA Technologies DAVID GOLDSTON, Harvard University R. JOHN HANSMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN B. HAYHURST, Boeing Company (retired) WILLIAM L. JOHNSON, California Institute of Technology RICHARD KOHRS, Independent Consultant IVETT LEYVA, Air Force Research Laboratory, Edwards Air Force Base ELAINE S. ORAN, Naval Research Laboratory ALAN G. POINDEXTER, Naval Postgraduate School HELEN R. REED, Texas A&M University ELI RESHOTKO, Case Western Reserve University EDMOND SOLIDAY, United Airlines (retired) Staff MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer SANDRA WILSON, Financial Assistant viii

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Preface NASA has developed a set of 14 draft roadmaps to guide the development of space technologies under the leadership of the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT).1,2 Each of these roadmaps focuses on a particular technology area (TA). The roadmaps are intended to foster the development of advanced technologies and concepts that address NASA’s needs and contribute to other aerospace and national needs. OCT requested that the National Research Council conduct a study to review the draft roadmaps, gather and assess relevant community input, and make recommendations and suggest priorities to inform NASA’s decisions as it finalizes its roadmaps. The full statement of task appears in Appendix A of this report. The statement of task states that “based on the results of the community input and its own deliberations, the steering committee will prepare a brief interim report that addresses high-level issues associated with the roadmaps, such as the advisability of modifying the number or technical focus of the draft NASA roadmaps.” This interim report, which does not include formal recommendations, addresses that one element of the study charge. NASA requested this interim report so that it would have the opportunity to make an early start in modifying the draft roadmaps based on feedback from the panels and steering committee. The final report will address all other tasks in the statement of task. In particular, the final report will include a prioritization of technologies, will describe in detail the prioritization process and criteria, and will include specific recommendations on a variety of topics, including many of the topics mentioned in this interim report. In developing both this interim report and the final report to come, the steering committee draws on the work of six study panels organized by technical area, loosely following the organization of the 14 roadmaps, as follows: • Panel 1: Propulsion and Power ― TA01 Launch Propulsion Systems ― TA02 In-Space Propulsion Technologies ― TA03 Space Power and Energy Storage Systems ― TA13 Ground and Launch Systems Processing • Panel 2: Robotics, Communications, and Navigation ― TA04 Robotics, TeleRobotics, and Autonomous Systems ― TA05 Communication and Navigation Systems • Panel 3: Instruments and Computing ― TA08 Science Instruments, Observatories, and Sensor Systems ― TA11 Modeling, Simulation, Information Technology, and Data Processing 1 The draft roadmaps are available at http://www.nasa.gov/offices/oct/home/roadmaps/index.html. 2 This study (and the 14 draft roadmaps) do not cover aeronautics technologies except to the extent that they are needed to achieve NASA and national needs in space. Guidance on the development of core aeronautics technologies is already available in the National Aeronautics Research and Development Plan, which was published in 2010 by the White House National Science and Technology Council and Office of Science and Technology Policy. It is available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/aero-rdplan-2010.pdf. ix

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• Panel 4: Human Health and Surface Exploration ― TA06 Human Health, Life Support, and Habitation Systems ― TA07 Human Exploration Destination Systems • Panel 5: Materials Panel ― TA10 Nanotechnology ― TA12 Materials, Structures, Mechanical Systems, and Manufacturing ― TA14 Thermal Management Systems • Panel 6: Entry, Descent, and Landing Panel ― TA09 Entry, Descent, and Landing Systems In addition to drawing on the expertise represented on the steering committee and panels, the committee obtained input from each of 14 public workshops held on each of the 14 roadmaps. At these 1- day workshops, invited speakers, guests, and members of the public engaged in discussions on the different technology areas and their value to NASA. Broad community input was also solicited from a public website, where more than 240 public comments were received on the draft roadmaps in response to application of criteria (such as benefit, risk and reasonableness, and alignment with NASA and national goals) that the steering committee established. Appendix B lists the public workshops held, along with information on accessing the public comments database. A summary of each workshop will appear in the final report. This interim report reflects the results of deliberations by the steering committee in light of these public inputs as well as additional inputs from the six panels. The steering committee’s final report will be completed early in 2012. That report will prioritize the technologies that span the entire scope of the 14 roadmaps and provide additional guidance on cross- cutting themes and other relevant topics. x

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Steven J. Battel, Battel Engineering, David C. Byers, TRW (retired), Vijay K. Dhir, University of California, Los Angeles, David Goodman, Polytechnic Institute of New York University (emeritus), James E. Hubbard, Jr., University of Maryland, Bruce D. Marcus, TRW (retired), Richard H. Petersen, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (retired), George H. Rieke, University of Arizona, and Stephen M. Rock, Stanford University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse any conclusions, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Peter M. Banks, Red Planet Capital Partners. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. xi

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 3 References, 4 2 OBSERVATIONS 5 General Management Practices, 5 Recommendations from Recent Decadal Surveys, 8 Integrated Approach to Technology Development, 9 Validation Testing of Models and Simulations, 11 Human Factors and Knowledge Integration, 12 References, 12 3 ROADMAP GAPS AND STRUCTURE 14 Commercial Space, 14 Avionics, 15 Space Weather Beyond Radiation Effects, 15 Revised Technology Area Breakdown Structure, 16 References, 31 4 LOOKING AHEAD 32 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 35 B Workshops and Public Input 37 C Revised Technology Area Breakdown Structure 39 D Acronyms 48 xiii

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