Improving the Assessment of Proliferation
Risk of Nuclear Fuel Cycles:
August 1-2, 2011
The Keck Center of the National Academies
500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20001
MONDAY, AUGUST 1, 2011
Keynote Briefing: Is Stopping Nuclear Proliferation a Human Problem, a Technical Problem, or Something Else?
U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s perspective on Proliferation Risk and Nuclear Fuel Cycles
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Appendix D Workshop Agenda Improving the Assessment of Proliferation Risk of Nuclear Fuel Cycles: A Workshop August 1-2, 2011 The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20001 Room 100 FINAL AGENDA MONDAY, AUGUST 1, 2011 9:00 am Welcome C. Paul Robinson, Planning Committee Chair 9:15 am Keynote Briefing: Is Stopping Nuclear Proliferation a Human Problem, a Technical Problem, or Something Else? Daniel Poneman, Deputy Secretary of Energy, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) 10:15 am U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s perspective on Proliferation Risk and Nuclear Fuel Cycles Edward McGinnis, Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Nuclear Energy Policy and Cooperation, Office of Nuclear Energy, DOE 87
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88 PROLIFERATION RISK IN NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLES 10:30 am U.S. Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration’s Perspective on Proliferation Risk and Nuclear Fuel Cycles Mark Whitney, Asst. Deputy Administrator for Nonproliferation and International Security, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), DOE 10:45–11:00 am BREAK 11:00 am PANEL 1– Key Issues for Nonproliferation Policy Moderator: Sharon Squassoni, Planning Committee Member Panelists: Mark Whitney, Office of Nonproliferation and International Security, NNSA, DOE John Harvey, Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense Richard Stratford, Office of Nuclear Energy, Safety, and Security Affairs, Undersecretary for International Security and Nonproliferation, U.S. Department of State Points for discussion: • dentify the key questions associated with I proliferation policy, in your office’s view • ow is the proliferation risk of fuel cycle/reactor H choices measured • hat other considerations are taken into account in W decision-making • hat analytical tools are not currently used but W could prove useful • ompare the importance of fuel cycle/reactor choices C vs. other government actions (e.g., government controls) that can be taken. 12:30–1:30 pm LUNCH 12:45 pm Lunch Briefing: The Threat from Low-Cost Centrifuge Enrichment and A.Q. Khan: The Genie is out of the Bottle. Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
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89 APPENDIX D 1:30 pm PANEL 2– Metrics and Methodologies for Proliferation Risk Assessment Moderator: William Charlton, Planning Committee Member • Overview of methodologies William Charlton, Texas A&M University and Planning Committee Member • ow well do political science approaches address H fuel cycle choices Christopher Way, Cornell University • ow well do technical (intrinsic) barriers—and H assessments of these barriers—influence fuel cycle choices Robert Bari, Brookhaven National Laboratory • ow can safeguards effectiveness be improved H Olli Heinonen, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University • ow materials attractiveness estimates are H performed and how they can be used as part of a proliferation risk assessment Bart Ebbinghaus, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 3:15–3:30 pm BREAK 3:30–5:00 pm BREAKOUT SESSIONS: Compatibility between Key Policy Issues and Assessment Methodologies 3:30 pm Directions to Breakout Sessions C. Paul Robinson, Planning Committee Chair 3:40 pm Participants to Move to Breakout Rooms See handout for assigned breakout groups: • Group A will report to Room 101 (Chair, Sharon Squassoni; Staff, Sarah Case) • Group B will report to Room 105 (Chair, Bill Charlton; Staff, Ben Rusek) • Group C will report to Room 109 (Chair, Charles Forsberg; Staff, Kevin Crowley) 3:45 pm Discussions of Compatibility between Key Policy Issues and Assessment Methodologies (In breakout groups)
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90 PROLIFERATION RISK IN NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLES 4:55 pm Return to Room 100 5:00 pm Closing Comments C. Paul Robinson, Planning Committee Chair 5:15 pm Adjourn TUESDAY, AUGUST 2, 2011 9:00 am BREAKOUT SESSION SUMMARY Led by Charles Forsberg, Planning Committee Member • hairs and staff of previous day’s breakout sessions C to summarize and present conclusions 10:00– 10:15 am BREAK 10:15 am PANEL DISCUSSION 3 – Opportunities and Path Forward for Proliferation Risk Assessment Moderator: C. Paul Robinson, Planning Committee Chair Panelists: William Tobey, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University John Ahearne, Sigma Xi Joseph Pilat, Los Alamos National Laboratory Points for discussion: • he potential role of technical assessments of T proliferation resistance in informing real-world decision-making • otential ways to make the assessments more useful, P including R&D directions and suggestions 12:00 pm Adjourn