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Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles: Workshop Summary (2011)

Chapter: Appendix D: Workshop Agenda

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13259.
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Appendix D

Workshop Agenda

Improving the Assessment of Proliferation
Risk of Nuclear Fuel Cycles:
A Workshop
August 1-2, 2011

The Keck Center of the National Academies
500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20001
Room 100

FINAL AGENDA

MONDAY, AUGUST 1, 2011

9:00 am

Welcome
C. Paul Robinson, Planning Committee Chair

 
9:15 am

Keynote Briefing: Is Stopping Nuclear Proliferation a Human Problem, a Technical Problem, or Something Else?
Daniel Poneman, Deputy Secretary of Energy, U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE)

 
10:15 am

U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s perspective on Proliferation Risk and Nuclear Fuel Cycles
Edward McGinnis, Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Nuclear Energy Policy and Cooperation, Office of Nuclear Energy, DOE

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13259.
×
 
10:30 am

U.S. Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration’s Perspective on Proliferation Risk and Nuclear Fuel Cycles
Mark Whitney, Asst. Deputy Administrator for Nonproliferation and International Security, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), DOE

 
10:45–11:00 am BREAK
 
11:00 am

PANEL 1– Key Issues for Nonproliferation Policy
Moderator: Sharon Squassoni, Planning Committee Member
Panelists:
Mark Whitney, Office of Nonproliferation and International Security, NNSA, DOE
John Harvey, Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense
Richard Stratford, Office of Nuclear Energy, Safety, and Security Affairs, Undersecretary for International Security and Nonproliferation, U.S. Department of State

Points for discussion:

•   Identify the key questions associated with proliferation policy, in your office’s view

•   How is the proliferation risk of fuel cycle/reactor choices measured

•   What other considerations are taken into account in decision-making

•   What analytical tools are not currently used but could prove useful

•   Compare the importance of fuel cycle/reactor choices vs. other government actions (e.g., government controls) that can be taken.

 
12:30–1:30 pm

LUNCH

 
12:45 pm

Lunch Briefing: The Threat from Low-Cost Centrifuge Enrichment and A.Q. Khan: The Genie is out of the Bottle.
Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13259.
×
 
1:30 pm

PANEL 2– Metrics and Methodologies for Proliferation Risk Assessment
Moderator:
William Charlton, Planning Committee Member

•   Overview of methodologies
William Charlton, Texas A&M University and Planning Committee Member

•   How well do political science approaches address fuel cycle choices
Christopher Way, Cornell University

•   How well do technical (intrinsic) barriers—and assessments of these barriers—influence fuel cycle choices
Robert Bari, Brookhaven National Laboratory

•   How can safeguards effectiveness be improved
Olli Heinonen, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

•   How materials attractiveness estimates are performed and how they can be used as part of a proliferation risk assessment
Bart Ebbinghaus, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

 
3:15–3:30 pm BREAK
 
3:30–5:00 pm

BREAKOUT SESSIONS: Compatibility between Key Policy Issues and Assessment Methodologies

 
3:30 pm

Directions to Breakout Sessions
C. Paul Robinson, Planning Committee Chair

 
3:40 pm

Participants to Move to Breakout Rooms
See handout for assigned breakout groups:

•   Group A will report to Room 101 (Chair, Sharon Squassoni; Staff, Sarah Case)

•   Group B will report to Room 105 (Chair, Bill Charlton; Staff, Ben Rusek)

•   Group C will report to Room 109 (Chair, Charles Forsberg; Staff, Kevin Crowley)

 
3:45 pm

Discussions of Compatibility between Key Policy Issues and Assessment Methodologies (In breakout groups)

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13259.
×
 
4:55 pm

Return to Room 100

 
5:00 pm

Closing Comments
C. Paul Robinson, Planning Committee Chair

 
5:15 pm Adjourn

TUESDAY, AUGUST 2, 2011

9:00 am

BREAKOUT SESSION SUMMARY
Led by Charles Forsberg, Planning Committee Member

•   Chairs and staff of previous day’s breakout sessions to summarize and present conclusions

 
10:00– 10:15 am

BREAK

 
10:15 am

PANEL DISCUSSION 3 – Opportunities and Path Forward for Proliferation Risk Assessment
Moderator: C. Paul Robinson, Planning Committee Chair
Panelists:
William Tobey, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
John Ahearne, Sigma Xi
Joseph Pilat, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Points for discussion:

•   The potential role of technical assessments of proliferation resistance in informing real-world decision-making

•   Potential ways to make the assessments more useful, including R&D directions and suggestions

 
12:00 pm

Adjourn

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13259.
×
Page 87
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13259.
×
Page 88
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13259.
×
Page 89
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2011. Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13259.
×
Page 90
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The worldwide expansion of nuclear energy has been accompanied by concerns about nuclear weapons proliferation. If sited in states that do not possess nuclear weapons technology, some civilian nuclear technologies could provide a route for states or other organizations to acquire nuclear weapons. Metrics for assessing the resistance of a nuclear technology to diversion for non-peaceful uses-proliferation resistance-have been developed, but at present there is no clear consensus on whether and how these metrics are useful to policy decision makers.

In 2011, the U.S. Department of Energy asked the National Academies to convene a public workshop addressing the capability of current and potential methodologies for assessing host state proliferation risk and resistance to meet the needs of decision makers. Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles is a summary of presentations and discussions that transpired at the workshop-held on August 1-2, 2011-prepared by a designated rapporteur following the workshop. It does not provide findings and recommendations or represent a consensus reached by the symposium participants or the workshop planning committee. However, several themes emerged through the workshop: nonproliferation and new technologies, separate policy and technical cultures, value of proliferation resistance analysis, usefulness of social science approaches.

The workshop was organized as part of a larger project undertaken by the NRC, the next phase of which (following the workshop) will be a consensus study on improving the assessment of proliferation risks associated with nuclear fuel cycles. This study will culminate in a report prepared by a committee of experts with expertise in risk assessment and communication, proliferation metrics and research, nuclear fuel cycle facility design and engineering, international nuclear nonproliferation and national security policy, and nuclear weapons design. This report is planned for completion in the spring of 2013.

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