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Sarah C. Case, Rapporteur Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi - neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Award No. #DE-PI0000010/DE-DT0002373 TO #19 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy, and the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Office of the Associate Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda - tions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-22049-1 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-22049-1 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern - ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem - bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis - ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the fed - eral government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineer- ing communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON IMPROVING THE ASSESSMENT OF PROLIFERATION RISK IN NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLES C. PAUL ROBINSON (chair), Sandia National Laboratories (director emeritus), Albuquerque, New Mexico WILLIAM CHARLTON, Texas A&M University, College Station CHARLES FORSBERG, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge SHARON SQUASSONI, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC Staff SARAH C. CASE, Study Director and Rapporteur, Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board KEVIN D. CROWLEY, Director, Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board BENJAMIN RUSEK, Program Officer, Committee on International Security and Arms Control TONI GREENLEAF, Administrative and Financial Associate SHAUNTEÉ WHETSTONE, Senior Program Assistant v

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NUCLEAR AND RADIATION STUDIES BOARD JAY C. DAVIS (chair), Hertz Foundation, Livermore, California BARBARA J. MCNEIL (vice-chair), Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts JOONHONG AHN, University of California, Berkeley JOHN S. APPLEGATE, Indiana University School of Law, Bloomington MICHAEL L. CORRADINI, University of Wisconsin, Madison PATRICIA J. CULLIGAN, Columbia University, New York ROBERT C. DYNES, University of California, San Diego JOE GRAY, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California DAVID G. HOEL, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston HEDVIG HRICAK, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York THOMAS H. ISAACS, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California ANNIE B. KERSTING, Glen T. Seaborg Institute, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California MARTHA LINET, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland FRED A. METTLER, JR., New Mexico VA Health Care System, Albuquerque BORIS F. MYASOEDOV, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia RICHARD J. VETTER, Mayo Clinic (retired), Rochester, Minnesota RAYMOND G. WYMER, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired), Oak Ridge, Tennessee Staff KEVIN D. CROWLEY, Director SARAH C. CASE, Senior Program Officer OURANIA KOSTI, Program Officer TONI GREENLEAF, Administrative and Financial Associate LAURA D. LLANOS, Administrative and Financial Associate SHAUNTEÉ WHETSTONE, Senior Program Assistant ERIN WINGO, Senior Program Assistant JAMES YATES, JR., Office Assistant vi

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Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the NRC in making its published report as sound as possible and will ensure that this report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsive- ness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Robert Bari, Brookhaven National Laboratory Jay Davis, Hertz Foundation Warren (Pete) Miller, Texas A&M University Scott Sagan, Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University Amy Sands, Monterey Institute of International Studies Raymond Wymer, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired) Michael Zentner, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the contents of this report, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its vii

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viii REVIEWERS release. The review of this report was overseen by James H. Johnson, Jr., Howard University. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were considered carefully. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author and the institution.

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Contents OVERVIEW 1 1 BACKGROUND 5 2 POLICY MAKERS’ PERSPECTIVES ON KEY NONPROLIFERATION ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE 13 Box: The Genie Is Out of the Bottle: Low-Cost Centrifuge Enrichment, 37 3 TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT OF PROLIFERATION RESISTANCE 39 4 SUMMARY DISCUSSIONS 59 REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY 75 APPENDIXES A Project Statement of Task 79 B Workshop Statement of Task 81 C Committee and Staff Biographical Sketches 83 D Workshop Agenda 87 E Workshop Participant List 91 F Workshop Speakers Biographical Sketches 95 ix

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