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Sarah C. Case, Rapporteur
Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov-
erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from
the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi -
neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible
for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Award No. #DE-PI0000010/DE-DT0002373 TO #19
between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy,
Office of Nuclear Energy, and the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear
Security Administration, Office of the Associate Administrator for Defense
Nuclear Nonproliferation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda -
tions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the
project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-22049-1
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-22049-1
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202)
334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating
society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research,
dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the
general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress
in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern -
ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding
engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem -
bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis -
ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors
engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education
and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles
M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions
in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The
Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon
its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education.
Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of
Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology
with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the fed -
eral government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined
by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both
the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in
providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineer-
ing communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the
Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and
vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON
IMPROVING THE ASSESSMENT OF PROLIFERATION
RISK IN NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLES
C. PAUL ROBINSON (chair), Sandia National Laboratories (director
emeritus), Albuquerque, New Mexico
WILLIAM CHARLTON, Texas A&M University, College Station
CHARLES FORSBERG, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge
SHARON SQUASSONI, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
Washington, DC
Staff
SARAH C. CASE, Study Director and Rapporteur, Nuclear and
Radiation Studies Board
KEVIN D. CROWLEY, Director, Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board
BENJAMIN RUSEK, Program Officer, Committee on International
Security and Arms Control
TONI GREENLEAF, Administrative and Financial Associate
SHAUNTEÉ WHETSTONE, Senior Program Assistant
v
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NUCLEAR AND RADIATION STUDIES BOARD
JAY C. DAVIS (chair), Hertz Foundation, Livermore, California
BARBARA J. MCNEIL (vice-chair), Harvard Medical School, Boston,
Massachusetts
JOONHONG AHN, University of California, Berkeley
JOHN S. APPLEGATE, Indiana University School of Law, Bloomington
MICHAEL L. CORRADINI, University of Wisconsin, Madison
PATRICIA J. CULLIGAN, Columbia University, New York
ROBERT C. DYNES, University of California, San Diego
JOE GRAY, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley,
California
DAVID G. HOEL, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston
HEDVIG HRICAK, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center,
New York
THOMAS H. ISAACS, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California
ANNIE B. KERSTING, Glen T. Seaborg Institute, Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory, Livermore, California
MARTHA LINET, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
FRED A. METTLER, JR., New Mexico VA Health Care System,
Albuquerque
BORIS F. MYASOEDOV, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow,
Russia
RICHARD J. VETTER, Mayo Clinic (retired), Rochester, Minnesota
RAYMOND G. WYMER, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired),
Oak Ridge, Tennessee
Staff
KEVIN D. CROWLEY, Director
SARAH C. CASE, Senior Program Officer
OURANIA KOSTI, Program Officer
TONI GREENLEAF, Administrative and Financial Associate
LAURA D. LLANOS, Administrative and Financial Associate
SHAUNTEÉ WHETSTONE, Senior Program Assistant
ERIN WINGO, Senior Program Assistant
JAMES YATES, JR., Office Assistant
vi
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Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen
for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with
procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National
Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to
provide candid and critical comments that will assist the NRC in making
its published report as sound as possible and will ensure that this report
meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsive-
ness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript
remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review
of this report:
Robert Bari, Brookhaven National Laboratory
Jay Davis, Hertz Foundation
Warren (Pete) Miller, Texas A&M University
Scott Sagan, Center for International Security and Arms Control,
Stanford University
Amy Sands, Monterey Institute of International Studies
Raymond Wymer, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired)
Michael Zentner, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive
comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the contents
of this report, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its
vii
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viii REVIEWERS
release. The review of this report was overseen by James H. Johnson,
Jr., Howard University. Appointed by the National Research Council, he
was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of
this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures
and that all review comments were considered carefully. Responsibility
for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author and the
institution.
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Contents
OVERVIEW 1
1 BACKGROUND 5
2 POLICY MAKERS’ PERSPECTIVES ON KEY
NONPROLIFERATION ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE 13
Box: The Genie Is Out of the Bottle: Low-Cost Centrifuge
Enrichment, 37
3 TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT OF PROLIFERATION
RESISTANCE 39
4 SUMMARY DISCUSSIONS 59
REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY 75
APPENDIXES
A Project Statement of Task 79
B Workshop Statement of Task 81
C Committee and Staff Biographical Sketches 83
D Workshop Agenda 87
E Workshop Participant List 91
F Workshop Speakers Biographical Sketches 95
ix
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