THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Award No. #DE-PI0000010/DE-DT0002373 TO #19 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy, and the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Office of the Associate Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-22049-1
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-22049-1
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This page intentionally left blank.
PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON IMPROVING THE ASSESSMENT OF PROLIFERATION RISK IN NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLES
C. PAUL ROBINSON (chair), Sandia National Laboratories (director emeritus), Albuquerque, New Mexico
WILLIAM CHARLTON, Texas A&M University, College Station
CHARLES FORSBERG, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
SHARON SQUASSONI, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC
Staff
SARAH C. CASE, Study Director and Rapporteur, Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board
KEVIN D. CROWLEY, Director, Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board
BENJAMIN RUSEK, Program Officer, Committee on International Security and Arms Control
TONI GREENLEAF, Administrative and Financial Associate
SHAUNTEÉ WHETSTONE, Senior Program Assistant
NUCLEAR AND RADIATION STUDIES BOARD
JAY C. DAVIS (chair), Hertz Foundation, Livermore, California
BARBARA J. MCNEIL (vice-chair), Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
JOONHONG AHN, University of California, Berkeley
JOHN S. APPLEGATE, Indiana University School of Law, Bloomington
MICHAEL L. CORRADINI, University of Wisconsin, Madison
PATRICIA J. CULLIGAN, Columbia University, New York
ROBERT C. DYNES, University of California, San Diego
JOE GRAY, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California
DAVID G. HOEL, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston
HEDVIG HRICAK, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York
THOMAS H. ISAACS, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California
ANNIE B. KERSTING, Glen T. Seaborg Institute, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
MARTHA LINET, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
FRED A. METTLER, JR., New Mexico VA Health Care System, Albuquerque
BORIS F. MYASOEDOV, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
RICHARD J. VETTER, Mayo Clinic (retired), Rochester, Minnesota
RAYMOND G. WYMER, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired), Oak Ridge, Tennessee
Staff
KEVIN D. CROWLEY, Director
SARAH C. CASE, Senior Program Officer
OURANIA KOSTI, Program Officer
TONI GREENLEAF, Administrative and Financial Associate
LAURA D. LLANOS, Administrative and Financial Associate
SHAUNTEÉ WHETSTONE, Senior Program Assistant
ERIN WINGO, Senior Program Assistant
JAMES YATES, JR., Office Assistant
Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the NRC in making its published report as sound as possible and will ensure that this report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Robert Bari, Brookhaven National Laboratory
Jay Davis, Hertz Foundation
Warren (Pete) Miller, Texas A&M University
Scott Sagan, Center for International Security and Arms Control, Stanford University
Amy Sands, Monterey Institute of International Studies
Raymond Wymer, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired)
Michael Zentner, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the contents of this report, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its
release. The review of this report was overseen by James H. Johnson, Jr., Howard University. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were considered carefully. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author and the institution.