FIGURE 3-1 Apprehension and eventual success rates among unauthorized U.S.- Mexican border crossers from Jalisco, Oaxaca, and Yucatan: 2005-2011. SOURCES: Data from Cornelius (2011), Hicken et al. (2011), Fitzgerald et al. (2012).
substantially larger than that measured in U.S. sources. For example, for the November 2005-November 2006 period, the Mexican survey shows about 1.1 million Mexicans leaving the country; the U.S.-based estimate of the flow, in contrast, is slightly more than 450,000 for the 2006 calendar year. The two numbers are not necessarily incompatible, however, as the former is an estimate of the gross flow from Mexico, including both permanent movers to the United States as well as temporary migrants, while the latter is an estimate of the flow of new permanent movers only. The Mexican data show a net movement of about 575,000, which is closer to the U.S. figure but still higher. For 2006, the United States recorded 226,000 legal entries by temporary workers, and they would be captured in the Mexican data. The overall picture presented from the Mexican side is very consistent with the U.S. data. Over the 2005-2010 period, migration to the United States dropped dramatically. Gross flows of new settlers to the United States at the middle of the decade were about 500,000 (or more) per year but had dropped by as much as 80 percent by the end of the decade. These patterns are consistent with an economic explanation for migration to the United States. Specifically, the availability of employment (as indicated by low unemployment rates) draws Mexicans to the U.S. labor market. With much higher unemployment by the end of the decade than earlier, fewer Mexicans are coming to the United States.
Field research conducted among potential migrants in Mexico from