REVIEW OF THE 21ST CENTURY TRUCK PARTNERSHIP, SECOND REPORT

Committee to Review the 21st Century Truck Partnership, Phase 2

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

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REVIEW OF THE 21st CENTURY TRUCK PARTNERSHIP, SECOND REPORT Committee to Review the 21st Century Truck Partnership, Phase 2 Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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T HE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 5 00 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract DENT-0006206 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organiza - tions or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-22247-1 International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-22247-8 Copies of this report are available in limited supply, free of charge, from the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck W934, Washington, DC 20001; (202) 334-3344. Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap. edu. Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE 21ST CENTURY TRUCK PARTNERSHIP, PHASE 2 JOHN H. JOHNSON, Michigan Technological University, Chair JOSEPH M. COLUCCI, NAE,1 Automotive Fuels Consulting, Inc. CORALIE COOPER,2 Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, Boston, Massachusetts DAVID E. FOSTER, University of Wisconsin-Madison LARRY J. HOWELL, Consultant, Royal Oak, Michigan JOHN G. KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge DAVID F. MERRION, Consultant, Detroit Diesel Corporation (retired), Brighton, Michigan THOMAS E. REINHART, Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Chrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan CHARLES E. SALTER, Consultant, Chambersburg, Pennsylvania KATHLEEN C. TAYLOR, NAE, General Motors, Research and Development Planning Center (retired), Fort Myers, Florida WALLACE R. WADE, NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Novi, Michigan Project Staff JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program Officer/Board Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, Study Director MADELINE WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant LANITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator 1 NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Resigned from the committee, January 18, 2011. v

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BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ANDREW BROWN, JR., NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan, Chair RAKESH AGRAWAL, NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana WILLIAM F. BANHOLZER, NAE, The Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta MICHAEL L. CORRADINI, NAE, University of Wisconsin-Madison PAUL DECOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station WILLIAM FRIEND, NAE, Bechtel Group, Inc. (retired), McLean, Virginia SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California ROBERT J. HUGGETT, Consultant, Seaford, Virginia DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis DANIEL NOCERA, NAS,2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, New Jersey DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Chrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York, New York Staff JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program/Board Director JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer and Associate Board Director DANA CAINES, Financial Manager ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer JONNA HAMILTON, Program Officer LANITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Project Assistant E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant 1 NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 NAS = member, National Academy of Sciences. vi

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Acknowledgments The Committee to Review the 21st Century Truck Partner- as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional ship, Phase 2, is grateful to the representatives of the 21st standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the Century Truck Partnership, including the four government study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript agencies—the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Envi- remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative ronmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Department of Trans- process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their portation, and the U.S. Department of the Army—and to the review of this report: representatives from companies and national laboratories • Andrew Brown, Jr. (NAE), Delphi Corporation who contributed significantly of their time and effort to this • Douglas Chapin (NAE), MPR Associates National Research Council (NRC) study by giving presen- • Duke Drinkard, 21st Century Driver and Truck Alliance tations at meetings or responding to committee requests for • Roger Fruechte, General Motors (retired) information. The committee also acknowledges the valuable • Trevor Jones (NAE), ElectroSonics Medical contributions of other individuals who provided information • Drew Kodjak, International Council for Clean and presentations at the committee’s open meetings. (Appen- Transportation dix B lists all of those presentations.) • Adrian Lund, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety The committee offers its special appreciation to Ken • Dale Stein (NAE), Michigan Technological University Howden, Director, 21st Century Truck Partnership, U.S. (retired) Department of Energy, Office of Vehicle Technologies (for- • Ward Winer (NAE), Georgia Institute of Technology merly the Office of FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies), • John Woodrooffe, University of Michigan for his significant contributions in coordinating responses to its questions and in making presentations to the committee. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many Finally, the chairman gratefully recognizes the commit- constructive comments and suggestions, they were not tee members and the staff of the NRC Board on Energy and asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor Environmental Systems for organizing and planning the did they see the final draft of the report before its release. committee meetings and gathering information and drafting The review of this report was overseen by Lawrence Papay sections of the report. Jim Zucchetto in particular has done (NAE). Appointed by the National Research Council, he an outstanding job of facilitating the work of the committee was responsible for making certain that an independent and helping it to write a focused and timely report. examination of this report was carried out in accordance with This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals institutional procedures and that all review comments were chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical exper- carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of tise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent the institution. review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound vii

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Contents SUMMARY 1 Background and Introduction, 1 Overall Observations, 2 Management Strategy and Priority Setting, 3 Engine Systems and Fuels, 3 Hybrid Vehicles, 5 Vehicle Power Demands (formerly “Parasitic Losses”), 5 Engine Idle Reduction, 6 Safety, 6 SuperTruck Program, 6 Efficient Operations, 7 References, 8 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 9 Introduction, 9 National Concerns, 10 Recent Policy Initiatives, 11 Overview of the 21st Century Truck Partnership: Areas of Interest and Organization, 13 Annual Miles and Fuel Consumption by Vehicle Weight Classes, 15 Proposed Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Regulations for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, 15 Budget Trends of the 21st Century Truck Partnership, 16 Origin and Scope of This Study, 18 Role of the Federal Government, 19 Study Process and Organization of the Report, 19 References, 20 2 MANAGEMENT STRATEGY AND PRIORITY SETTING 21 Introduction, 21 Program Management, 21 Prioritization of Projects, 25 Findings and Recommendations, 25 References, 26 3 ENGINE SYSTEMS AND FUELS 27 Introduction, 27 Engine Programs: State of Technology, 27 Department of Energy Engine Programs, 29 ix

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x CONTENTS Engine Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency, 37 Department of Defense Engine Programs, 39 Responses to Recommendations on Engines from NRC Phase 1 Review, 41 Fuel Programs, 41 Aftertreatment Systems, 49 Emissions and Related Health Effects, 53 High-Temperature Materials, 54 References and Bibliography, 57 4 MEDIUM- AND HEAVY-DUTY HYBRID VEHICLES 59 Introduction, 59 Funding, 62 Hybrid Electric Vehicles, 62 Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles, 68 Hydraulic Hybrid Vehicles, 69 Regulatory Considerations, 71 Hybrid Costs and Payback Periods, 73 Revised Goals Issued in 2011, 75 Response to Recommendations in NRC Phase 1 Report, 77 References, 77 5 VEHICLE POWER DEMANDS 78 Introduction, 78 Reduction Goals from the Partnership White Papers, 79 Aerodynamics, 80 Tire Rolling Resistance, 82 Auxiliary Loads, 85 Weight Reduction, 85 Thermal Management, 87 Friction and Wear, 88 Overall Finding and Recommendation, 90 References, 90 6 ENGINE IDLE REDUCTION 92 Introduction, 92 Funding, 93 Goals, 93 Summary of Idle Reduction Technologies, 103 Effect of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards, 103 Response to Recommendations from NRC Phase I Report, 105 Goals for FY 2012, 105 References, 106 7 SAFETY 107 Introduction, 107 Overview of Goals and Timetables, 107 Nature of Large Truck Accidents—A Brief Overview, 108 Crash-Avoidance Strategies, 108 Commercial Vehicle Weight and Size, 111 Progress Toward Goals, 112 Additional Opportunities, 112 Heavy-Duty Truck Safety and Fuel Consumption, 113 References, 114

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xi CONTENTS 8 SUPERTRUCK PROGRAM 115 Introduction and Background, 115 Goals, Timetables, Tasks (Activities), and Deliverables, 116 Budgets, 117 Technologies and Teams, 118 Committee Evaluation of SuperTruck Project Plans, 121 Findings and Recommendations, 123 References, 124 9 EFFICIENT OPERATIONS 125 Introduction and Background, 125 Efficient-Operation Opportunities, 125 Fuel-Saving Opportunities from Efficient Operations, 129 Opportunities for Collaboration by Departments of Energy and of Transportation, 134 Findings and Recommendations, 135 References, 137 APPENDIXES A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 139 B Presentations and Committee Meetings 143 C Responses from the 21st Century Truck Partnership to the Findings and Recommendations from the National Research Council Phase 1 Review 145 D Highlights of Selected Propulsion Material Programs 161 E Available Models of Medium- to Heavy-Duty Hybrid and Electric Trucks, 163 F Proposed Mechanism for Obtaining Hybrid Vehicle Credits 166 G History of Heavy-Duty Truck Aerodynamic and Tire Rolling Resistance Coefficients 169 H Bibliography for Long Combination Vehicles in Canada, the United States, and Australia 171 I Acronyms and Abbreviations 174

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Figures and Tables FIGURES 1-1 Trends in actual and projected U.S. transportation fuel use, 1995-2035, 11 1-2 Historical trends in emission standards for new diesel engines, 1970-2010, 12 1-3 Illustrations of typical vehicles in the various weight classes, 14 2-1 Interrelations among participants in the 21st Century Truck Partnership, 21 2-2 Department of Energy goal setting process for technology programs, 22 2-3 Some areas of common interest among the collaborative government agencies in the 21st Century Truck Partnership, 23 2-4 Department of Energy project management and innovation process, 25 3-1 High Efficiency Clean Combustion (HECC) engine efficiency improvements, 30 3-2 Cummins waste heat recovery (WHR) system, second-generation architecture, 31 3-3 Schematic representation of the evolution of combustion processes to be used at different engine loads and speeds, 33 3-4 Emission control system architecture generally being applied to meet 2010 new engine emissions standards of the Environmental Protection Agency, 49 4-1 Relative performance of energy-storage systems, 70 5-1 Aerodynamic and tire power consumption for tractor-trailer combination, 79 5-2 Tractor-trailer (T-T) combination truck showing areas of energy-saving opportunities, 80 5-3 Summary of trailer aerodynamic device fuel consumption reduction (baseline C d of 0.625), 81 5-4 Example rolling resistance coefficients for heavy-duty truck tires, 83 6-1 Payback time versus fuel price, by device, used 2,000 hours per year, 97 8-1 Cummins organic Rankine cycle waste heat recovery with energy returned mechanically to crankshaft, 121 9-1 High-productivity vehicle descriptions and operational efficiency potentials compared to 5-axle tractor-semitrailer or double baselines. 131 TABLES 1-1 Summary of Annual Miles and Fuel Use for Different Classes of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles in the United States Based on 2002 Survey Data, 15 1-2 Department of Energy Budgets for Heavy-Vehicle Technologies, 1999-2011 (millions of dollars), 17 xii

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xiii FIGURES AND TABLES 3-1 Accomplishments of High Efficiency Clean Combustion Projects, 30 3-2 Accomplishments of Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) Projects, 31 3-3 Accomplishments of Other Engine Projects Funded in Part by the Department of Energy, 32 3-4 Major 21CTP-Related Projects Addressing Advanced Combustion Fundamentals, 34 3-5 Engines Under Development by the Environmental Protection Agency for Series Hydraulic Hybrid Trucks, 38 3-6 EPA’s Homogeneous-Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) Engine Features for a Series Hydraulic Hybrid Demon - strator Shuttle Bus, 38 3-7 High Power Density–Low Heat Rejection Program Targets of the Tank-Automotive Research, Development and Engineering Center, 39 3-8 Adaptation of Commercial Engines for Military Use, 40 3-9 Army Broad Agency Announcements (2010-2013): Summary of Three Programs for Powertrain Technology Develop - ment, 41 3-10 Major 21CTP-Related Projects Funded in FY 2010 Addressing Advanced Petroleum-Based Fuels and Non-Petroleum- Based Fuels, 42 3-11 Department of Energy 21CTP Supported Aftertreatment Research Programs, 51 3-12 Projects Attributed to Health Effects Studies Receiving Funding from the Department of Energy as Part of 21CTP, 53 4-1 Hybrid Vehicle Architectures, Their Status as of 2009, and Primary Applications, 62 4-2 Heavy-Duty Hybrid Funding for FY2007-FY2010, 63 4-3 Electric-Vehicle Battery Materials, Production, and Recycling Capabilities Being Developed by 12 Domestic Manufacturers, with Amount of Department of Energy Funding, 65 4-4 Nine Domestic Manufacturing Facilities for Battery Cell Production and Pack Assembly and Amount of Total Invest - ment, 66 4-5 Fuel Economy Improvements for Parallel and Series Hydraulic Hybrid Trucks, 70 4-6 Maximum Incremental Cost of a Hybrid Truck Qualifying for a Tax Credit, 72 4-7 Hybrid Truck Tax Credit as a Function of Fuel Economy, 72 4-8 Hybrid Trucks—Break-even Cost Analysis (Future 2015-2020 Technology), 74 5-1 Heavy-Duty Truck Power Consumption (each hour), 78 6-1 Comparison of Attributes of Idle Reduction Systems, 93 6-2 Status of Navistar Auxiliary Power Unit System Versus Program Goals, 99 6-3 Comparison of Fuel Consumption Rates for Various Types of Idle Operation, 101 6-4 Cab Comfort Technology Summary, 104 8-1 Comparison of SuperTruck Projects and Technologies to Be Explored by Each of Three Teams, 119 9-1 Maximum Truck Size and Weight Limits for 13 of 20 States Subject to the ISTEA Freeze, 133 9-2 Summary of Fuel Saving Opportunities, 134 E-1 Available Models of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Hybrid Vehicles and Electric Trucks, 164 F-1 Proposed Drive-Cycle Weightings (percent) for Hybrid Vehicles Without Power Take-off, 167 G-1 History of Heavy-Duty Truck Aerodynamic and Tire Rolling Resistance Coefficients, 170

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