REVIEW OF THE 21ST CENTURY TRUCK PARTNERSHIP, SECOND REPORT
Committee to Review the 21st Century Truck Partnership, Phase 2
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract DENT-0006206 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE 21ST CENTURY TRUCK PARTNERSHIP, PHASE 2
JOHN H. JOHNSON, Michigan Technological University, Chair
JOSEPH M. COLUCCI, NAE,1 Automotive Fuels Consulting, Inc.
CORALIE COOPER,2 Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, Boston, Massachusetts
DAVID E. FOSTER, University of Wisconsin-Madison
LARRY J. HOWELL, Consultant, Royal Oak, Michigan
JOHN G. KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
DAVID F. MERRION, Consultant, Detroit Diesel Corporation (retired), Brighton, Michigan
THOMAS E. REINHART, Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas
BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Chrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
CHARLES E. SALTER, Consultant, Chambersburg, Pennsylvania
KATHLEEN C. TAYLOR, NAE, General Motors, Research and Development Planning Center (retired), Fort Myers, Florida
WALLACE R. WADE, NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Novi, Michigan
Project Staff
JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program Officer/Board Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, Study Director
MADELINE WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer
E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant
LANITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
_____________________
1 NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering.
2 Resigned from the committee, January 18, 2011.
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
ANDREW BROWN, JR., NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan, Chair
RAKESH AGRAWAL, NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
WILLIAM F. BANHOLZER, NAE, The Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan
MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
MICHAEL L. CORRADINI, NAE, University of Wisconsin-Madison
PAUL DECOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York
CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station
WILLIAM FRIEND, NAE, Bechtel Group, Inc. (retired), McLean, Virginia
SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia
NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California
ROBERT J. HUGGETT, Consultant, Seaford, Virginia
DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis
DANIEL NOCERA, NAS,2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, New Jersey
DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California
BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Chrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas
MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego
RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York, New York
Staff
JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program/Board Director
JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer and Associate Board Director
DANA CAINES, Financial Manager
ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer
JONNA HAMILTON, Program Officer
LANITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Project Assistant
E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant
_____________________
1 NAE = member, National Academy of Engineering.
2 NAS = member, National Academy of Sciences.
Acknowledgments
The Committee to Review the 21st Century Truck Partnership, Phase 2, is grateful to the representatives of the 21st Century Truck Partnership, including the four government agencies—the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Department of Transportation, and the U.S. Department of the Army—and to the representatives from companies and national laboratories who contributed significantly of their time and effort to this National Research Council (NRC) study by giving presentations at meetings or responding to committee requests for information. The committee also acknowledges the valuable contributions of other individuals who provided information and presentations at the committee’s open meetings. (Appendix B lists all of those presentations.)
The committee offers its special appreciation to Ken Howden, Director, 21st Century Truck Partnership, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Vehicle Technologies (formerly the Office of FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies), for his significant contributions in coordinating responses to its questions and in making presentations to the committee.
Finally, the chairman gratefully recognizes the committee members and the staff of the NRC Board on Energy and Environmental Systems for organizing and planning the committee meetings and gathering information and drafting sections of the report. Jim Zucchetto in particular has done an outstanding job of facilitating the work of the committee and helping it to write a focused and timely report.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
• Andrew Brown, Jr. (NAE), Delphi Corporation
• Douglas Chapin (NAE), MPR Associates
• Duke Drinkard, 21st Century Driver and Truck Alliance
• Roger Fruechte, General Motors (retired)
• Trevor Jones (NAE), ElectroSonics Medical
• Drew Kodjak, International Council for Clean Transportation
• Adrian Lund, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
• Dale Stein (NAE), Michigan Technological University (retired)
• Ward Winer (NAE), Georgia Institute of Technology
• John Woodrooffe, University of Michigan
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lawrence Papay (NAE). Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Contents
Management Strategy and Priority Setting
Vehicle Power Demands (formerly “Parasitic Losses”)
Overview of the 21st Century Truck Partnership: Areas of Interest and Organization
Annual Miles and Fuel Consumption by Vehicle Weight Classes
Proposed Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Regulations for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Budget Trends of the 21st Century Truck Partnership
Origin and Scope of This Study
Role of the Federal Government
Study Process and Organization of the Report
2 MANAGEMENT STRATEGY AND PRIORITY SETTING
Engine Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency
Department of Defense Engine Programs
Responses to Recommendations on Engines from NRC Phase 1 Review
Emissions and Related Health Effects
4 MEDIUM- AND HEAVY-DUTY HYBRID VEHICLES
Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles
Hybrid Costs and Payback Periods
Response to Recommendations in NRC Phase 1 Report
Reduction Goals from the Partnership White Papers
Overall Finding and Recommendation
Summary of Idle Reduction Technologies
Effect of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards
Response to Recommendations from NRC Phase I Report
Overview of Goals and Timetables
Nature of Large Truck Accidents—A Brief Overview
Commercial Vehicle Weight and Size
Goals, Timetables, Tasks (Activities), and Deliverables
Committee Evaluation of SuperTruck Project Plans
Efficient-Operation Opportunities
Fuel-Saving Opportunities from Efficient Operations
Opportunities for Collaboration by Departments of Energy and of Transportation
A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
B Presentations and Committee Meetings
D Highlights of Selected Propulsion Material Programs
E Available Models of Medium- to Heavy-Duty Hybrid and Electric Trucks
F Proposed Mechanism for Obtaining Hybrid Vehicle Credits
G History of Heavy-Duty Truck Aerodynamic and Tire Rolling Resistance Coefficients
H Bibliography for Long Combination Vehicles in Canada, the United States, and Australia
Figures and Tables
FIGURES
1-1 Trends in actual and projected U.S. transportation fuel use, 1995-2035
1-2 Historical trends in emission standards for new diesel engines, 1970-2010
1-3 Illustrations of typical vehicles in the various weight classes
2-1 Interrelations among participants in the 21st Century Truck Partnership
2-2 Department of Energy goal setting process for technology programs
2-4 Department of Energy project management and innovation process
3-1 High Efficiency Clean Combustion (HECC) engine efficiency improvements
3-2 Cummins waste heat recovery (WHR) system, second-generation architecture
4-1 Relative performance of energy-storage systems
5-1 Aerodynamic and tire power consumption for tractor-trailer combination
5-2 Tractor-trailer (T-T) combination truck showing areas of energy-saving opportunities
5-3 Summary of trailer aerodynamic device fuel consumption reduction (baseline Cd of 0.625)
5-4 Example rolling resistance coefficients for heavy-duty truck tires
6-1 Payback time versus fuel price, by device, used 2,000 hours per year
TABLES
1-2 Department of Energy Budgets for Heavy-Vehicle Technologies, 1999-2011 (millions of dollars)
3-1 Accomplishments of High Efficiency Clean Combustion Projects
3-2 Accomplishments of Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) Projects
3-3 Accomplishments of Other Engine Projects Funded in Part by the Department of Energy
3-4 Major 21CTP-Related Projects Addressing Advanced Combustion Fundamentals
3-8 Adaptation of Commercial Engines for Military Use
3-11 Department of Energy 21CTP Supported Aftertreatment Research Programs
4-1 Hybrid Vehicle Architectures, Their Status as of 2009, and Primary Applications
4-2 Heavy-Duty Hybrid Funding for FY2007-FY2010
4-5 Fuel Economy Improvements for Parallel and Series Hydraulic Hybrid Trucks
4-6 Maximum Incremental Cost of a Hybrid Truck Qualifying for a Tax Credit
4-7 Hybrid Truck Tax Credit as a Function of Fuel Economy
4-8 Hybrid Trucks—Break-even Cost Analysis (Future 2015-2020 Technology)
5-1 Heavy-Duty Truck Power Consumption (each hour)
6-1 Comparison of Attributes of Idle Reduction Systems
6-2 Status of Navistar Auxiliary Power Unit System Versus Program Goals
6-3 Comparison of Fuel Consumption Rates for Various Types of Idle Operation
6-4 Cab Comfort Technology Summary
8-1 Comparison of SuperTruck Projects and Technologies to Be Explored by Each of Three Teams
9-1 Maximum Truck Size and Weight Limits for 13 of 20 States Subject to the ISTEA Freeze
9-2 Summary of Fuel Saving Opportunities
E-1 Available Models of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Hybrid Vehicles and Electric Trucks
F-1 Proposed Drive-Cycle Weightings (percent) for Hybrid Vehicles Without Power Take-off
G-1 History of Heavy-Duty Truck Aerodynamic and Tire Rolling Resistance Coefficients