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5
Hydrologic Sciences: A Path Forward
The previous chapters demonstrated that the opportunities in hydro-
logic sciences have never been greater and that the challenges that lie
ahead have never been more compelling. In order to respond to these
opportunities and meet the challenges of 21st-century hydrologic science,
the next decade will require transformative new ways of conducting basic
hydrologic research, educating the next generation of leaders, and working
in new ways to ensure that the knowledge generated proves useful for solv-
ing practical problems. Many intriguing puzzles in the Earth sciences will
continue to engage the community of hydrologic scientists and engineers
and will attract new talent to the hydrologic sciences in the years to come.
Furthermore, a changing climate, an increasingly populated planet, and
competition for scarce freshwater resources demand that the hydrologic
sciences deliver integrated, basic scientific knowledge in service to society.
Hydrologic science extends well beyond "hydrologic science" per se, and
should embrace work in other geosciences (e.g., ecology, limnology, geol-
ogy, biogeochemistry), water resources, and environmental engineering.
Interdisciplinary effort is a prerequisite for predicting the co-evolution of
water, Earth, and life in a changing environment and for moving humanity
toward a sustainable water future.
Fundamental new drivers of hydrologic sciences in the 21st century
rest on the realization that (a) humans are a dominant influence on water
sustainability both at the global and local scale, (b) the world is becom-
155
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156 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES
ing exceedingly "flat,"1 with respect to not only rapid dissemination of
scientific knowledge but also learning from distant environments currently
undergoing rapid change (e.g., deforestation, drought, agricultural expan-
sion, etc.) and predicting future water scenarios in other parts of the world,
and (c) the natural world is a highly nonlinear system of interacting parts
at multiple scales prone to abrupt changes, tipping points, and surprises
(Alley et al., 2003; Taleb, 2007) more often than previously thought pos-
sible. What do these realizations mean for the future of hydrologic science?
SCIENTIFIC CHALLENGES
The committee identified three major areas that define the key scientific
challenges for the hydrologic sciences in the coming decade: The Water
Cycle: An Agent of Change; Water and Life; and Clean Water for People
and Ecosystems and provided major findings in these areas in Chapters
2, 3, and 4. Within each major area the committee enumerates some of
the most challenging concepts and identifies research opportunities for
attaining progress in the field; the main message of each is represented
in bold, below. The challenges in these areas are the purview of the vari-
ous subdisciplines within the hydrologic sciences but also related disci-
plines and subdisciplines. They span physical-hydrologic sciences, including
physical hydrology, geomorphology, paleohydrology, and climate science;
biological-hydrologic sciences, including ecohydrology, aquatic ecology,
biogeochemistry, soil science, and limnology; and chemical-hydrologic sci-
ences, including chemical hydrology, and aquatic geochemistry. These three
major areas reflect both an assessment of intriguing open questions in the
field and an assessment of the potential for making significant progress by
virtue of previous progress coupled with new ideas, techniques, and instru-
mentation. Although the committee identifies the three areas separately, it
is clear that there are overlaps; many of the specific research questions that
will be addressed under the umbrella of these areas will bridge across the
three major areas.
Water Cycle: An Agent of Change
Water is a dynamic agent whose influence is central to processes that
produced the world as we know it and that will affect its evolution into the
future. Many critical questions in this priority area are ripe for study both
1The term "flat," coined by the author Thomas Friedman in his books The World is Flat
(2005) and Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution--and How It Can
Renew America (2008), is used to a describe new era of globalization that allows people and
entities around the world to compete, connect, and collaborate.
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HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES: A PATH FORWARD 157
from the standpoints of scientific curiosity and societal need. At the most
fundamental level, critical gaps remain in the knowledge about hydrologic
fluxes. Evaporation, transpiration, and groundwater fluxes interconnect the
water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles yet adequate measurements and
estimates of these fluxes are elusive, even for relatively pristine natural sys-
tems. The perturbations to the hydrologic cycle from "replumbing" through
human activities add a dimension of complexity, and urgency, to this re-
search area. A challenge for the hydrologic community is to understand
replumbing; for example, the downstream consequences of urban growth
or changes in the severity, duration, and occurrence of floods and droughts
as a result of climate change, and to apply this understanding to making
predictions for the future. Furthering understanding of the processes that
link components of the water cycle is no less important than understanding
the human impacts on the water cycle.
The processes that define water fluxes occur at many time and space
scales, for example, the first drops of water that initiate streams to the com-
plex systems of rivers that define drainage basins. Research questions are
continually raised regarding the quantitative relationships among variables
and across scales. Because interactions at overlapping scales change hydro-
logic patterns in subtle ways, disentangling the causality of subtle shifts
and regime changes in streamflow and understanding their environmental
impact is a challenge. The climate system can vary at long time scales as
well as shift rapidly into new modes of behavior that are radically different
from the historical experience. Understanding the hydrologic response to
abrupt climate change over short time scales and to slowly varying natural
climate change is far from complete. Exploration of how the water cycle has
affected the evolution of other planets may provide important insight into
Earth's water cycle and its dynamics as an agent of change and determinant
of life. The study of hydrologic processes on other planets defines the new
field of "exohydrology," and research in this area is only just beginning.
Water and Life
Water is essential for all living organisms, and, on land, the magnitude
of the water supply and the timing of water delivery structures biological
systems at all spatial and temporal scales. Recently ecologists, geomorphol-
ogists, climate scientists, and hydrologic scientists have found a common
frontier lies at the nexus of life and water because water plays a critical
role in driving the environmental patterns that exist and evolve on Earth.
The past, with radically different biota, topography, and atmospheric and
ocean chemistry, presents an opportunity for hydrologists to explore how
key processes in the hydrologic cycle differed, and how these processes
contributed to Earth's evolution. Hydrologic flow regimes, river channel
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158 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES
dynamics, and aquatic ecosystems are linked, resulting in a co-evolution of
rivers, wetlands, and aquatic ecosystems. Many challenging research ques-
tions arise when exploring how topography, vegetation (and their animal
ecosystems), and the hydrologic processes that connect them may co-orga-
nize over geomorphic time scales. Subsurface ecosystems form their own
environments, create and direct hydrologic pathways, release gases to the
atmosphere, and control access to moisture and nutrients to aboveground
ecosystems. How subsurface biota are controlled by and yet also influence
hydrologic processes is a frontier area of research.
Earth's ecosystems are in a state of transition as a result of global
warming and changing land use. The processes that determine transitions
in ecosystems are not well characterized or understood; yet the viability of
ecosystems as localized communities and as part of the global co-evolution
of water and life depends critically on these transitions. Needed are theory
and mechanistic field studies to guide the protection, redesign, and restora-
tion of ecohydrologic functions on landscapes. The loss of wetlands and
tributaries with high sediment-water contact is disproportionately impor-
tant in driving whole watershed solute exports. However, scientists are as
yet unable to understand how their continued loss (in time or in space) or
altered patterns in their connectivity to downstream rivers is likely to affect
patterns of solute export into the future. An important challenge for the hy-
drologic and ecological communities is to understand the complex ways in
which flow regimes impact critical ecological processes and the maintenance
and dispersal of aquatic taxa in aquatic ecosystems. Scientists currently lack
both sufficient understanding from field studies and quantitative models to
make reliable predictions about desired outcomes from water management
decisions in many applications. Interdisciplinary approaches and perspec-
tives will be needed to gain enough understanding of the interactions be-
tween water and life to predict the future states of the Earth system.
Clean Water for People and Ecosystems
Ensuring clean water for the future requires an ability to understand,
predict, and manage changes in water quality. Research opportunities re-
lated to water quality stem largely from a need to know the processes that
control the evolution of water quality in both relatively pristine and heavily
impacted environments. Fundamental research on weathering of rocks and
soils, chemical reactions in aquatic systems, and transport of materials in
natural systems has yielded a solid basis for studies of water quality and
will continue to build upon this base in the future. A key issue of extreme
societal relevance relates to contaminants. Discharge of contaminants from
a variety of activities has disturbed the planet's water chemical composi-
tion. A research challenge exists in promoting the understanding of how
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HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES: A PATH FORWARD 159
contaminants interact with hydrologic processes and, in turn, impact stream
ecosystems. The impact on water quality of growing food and providing
energy for the growing global population has not been exhaustively studied,
but this knowledge is critical to ensuring a sustainable future. Increasing
demands for food and energy will occur against the backdrop of a chang-
ing climate, providing yet another challenge to maintaining adequate water
quality for humans and ecosystems. The hydrologic research community
has an obligation to tackle the water quality issues embedded within large-
scale drivers of water quality. Geological materials are enormously com-
plex, and many important chemical hydrologic processes are candidates
for productive research exploration. A challenge exists in developing basic
hydrologic principles and tools to further understand the movement of
contaminants through an irregular and interconnected world.
The scientific areas summarized above are, in the committee's view,
"the promising new opportunities to advance hydrologic sciences for bet-
ter understanding of the water cycle that can be used to improve human
welfare and the health of the environment" as requested in the statement
of task. Some fall squarely within the purview of hydrologic science, for
example, furthering the understanding of evapotranspiration and ground-
water fluxes. Some require interdisciplinary efforts, such as understanding
the impact of growing food on water quality. Some are "curiosity-driven,"
and some are "problem-driven," which the committee considers to be
equally important. All reflect the complexity of the issues facing hydrologic
scientists in a broad range of disciplines.
Execution of the ambitious research agenda implied by the scientific
challenges above requires the ingenuity of individuals and interdisciplinary
teams from numerous universities, research laboratories, and government
agencies. The technological and scientific advances of today and tomorrow
will continue to play a critical role. Collaborative field studies, when fea-
sible and appropriate, are also important. In particular, ecosystem processes
(especially in the case of aquatic ecosystems) can vary significantly on rela-
tively longer time scales than do hydrologic processes, which underscores
the need for collaborative fields studies in pursuit of hydrologic research.
EDUCATION ISSUES
Education of both graduate and undergraduate students in hydrologic
science has gained ground in the past 20 years with the formation of new
hydrologic science related programs, degrees, and other educational efforts. 2
2 Recently, the National Research Council (NRC) assessed the health of doctoral institutions,
programs, faculty, and students in the United States in a report titled A Data-Based Assessment
of Research-Doctorate Programs in the United States. Since 1995, the overall number of
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160 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES
Along with this increase in degree-granting programs has been an evolution
of the educational experience in the hydrologic sciences that is linked to the
development of new capabilities and technologies (Chapter 1). Advances in
technology have influenced both the skill sets imparted to students and the
teaching methods employed. Students now emerge from universities techno-
logically literate. For example, students in the hydrologic sciences may gain
exposure to numerical simulations, emerging remote sensing products, new
analytical chemistry methods, and many other technologies.
An emerging new forum for graduate education is "Summer Institutes,"
which are very popular in Europe as a means to bring together experts in
the field who can teach courses that are absent from many Ph.D. programs
and to expose young researchers to new ideas. In the United States, the
Summer Institute on Earth-Surface Dynamics, established in 2009, focuses
each year on a different but specific topic at the intersection of hydrologic
and ecosystem processes in diverse environments (uplands to river deltas).
Drawing on the National Center for Earth-Surface Dynamics' "approach
of integrating theory, laboratory experiments, numerical modeling, and
fieldwork, this two-week institute combines lectures with practical experi-
ences in the laboratory and the field,"3 hands-on modeling experience, as
well as exposure to the broader impacts of research. Such institutes provide
a "stimulating environment for learning, bonding, mentoring and life-long
academic partnerships" that strengthens the research community in innova-
tive and cost-effective ways.
Many of the challenges mentioned in previous chapters relate to trans-
forming hydrologic research by taking advantage of new technologies,
which often originate in neighbor disciplines. For example, advances in
analytical chemistry led to the Synchrotron, which in turn contributed to
further understanding of water-rock interactions. Educational opportunities
for students in the hydrologic sciences should include exposure to new and
emerging technologies, through summer programs and extended field cam-
paigns that promote graduate student involvement. For example, students
trained in the use of computational fluid dynamics simulators or analytical
instruments will gain a skill set that crosses many disciplinary boundaries
and will establish linkages with practitioners in other disciplines.
Fostering interdisciplinary graduate education can be challenging be-
cause often academic departments are organized along traditional disci-
plinary lines. However, successful models exist that demonstrate how to
Ph.D.'s produced by doctoral programs in the United States has increased by 11 percent
including an increasing number of international students pursuing doctoral programs in the
United States. The number of students enrolled in physical and mathematical science programs,
which includes hydrologic science programs, has increased by 9 percent (NRC, 2010a).
3 See http://www.nced.umn.edu/content/summer-institute-earth-surface-dynamics.
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HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES: A PATH FORWARD 161
implement an interdisciplinary educational experience that complements
programs of single-discipline academic departments. Needed in the future
are broader graduate level educational experiences that cross disciplinary
boundaries in pursuit of the opportunities presented in this report.
Opportunities also exist at the undergraduate level. Hydrologic sci-
ences can respond to a young generation interested in solving sustainability
problems by introducing innovative education experiences early in educa-
tional programs, for example, incorporating service into a degree program.
Service could include water-related aid work in developing countries, for
example, a "Water Corps." Student organizations in other disciplines could
serve as models for channeling student enthusiasm into experiences that are
educational and contribute to the broader community. Examples include
Engineers Without Borders, informal geology or environmental clubs at
many universities, and student chapters of professional societies such as the
American Meteorological Society, the American Water Resources Associa-
tion, and the American Institute of Hydrology, all of which have records of
achievement in community outreach.
All of these service-minded activities are in the spirit of "hydrophilan-
thropy." Furthermore, a short period of practical experience as part of hy-
drologic science undergraduate and entry-graduate education could attract
motivated and focused students to the discipline and provide them with an
understanding of the social and technical complexities of water problems.
Such novel programs might be an effective for recruiting a new generation
of researchers and providing them with a holistic and motivating perspec-
tive. Indeed, the University of New Mexico introduced hydrophilanthropy
to students by offering a series of trips to Honduras, where participants
helped villages build rural water systems. These trips attracted dedicated
students who sought the program out of a desire to work in developing
countries. (For additional information about hydrophilanthropy, see the
Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education, Issue 145, Au-
gust, 2010.)
Hydrophilanthropy is a term used to describe altruistic efforts of col-
leagues to provide sustainable, clean water for people and ecosystems
worldwide.
David K. Kreamer (2010)
The opportunities and challenges presented in this report can be met
by educating scientists and engineers in both traditional and nontraditional
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162 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES
ways. The committee notes the importance of developing T-graduates4 who
can perform antedisciplinary science5 and other graduates who function
well in interdisciplinary teams. To tackle the complex issues outlined in the
report, those who guide young hydrologic scientists and engineers should
consider how to best prepare them for a scientific arena that differs from
the norm. In this regard, tailored educational experiences that develop intel-
lectual breadth and enrich communication skills will supplement traditional
activities that train students to be independent researchers.
IMPORTANCE OF VARIOUS MODALITIES
OF RESEARCH SUPPORT
This report is a result of a study funded by the National Science
Foundation (NSF). The broad charge to identify promising new research
opportunities is not specific to NSF. In other respects, the committee inter-
preted its charge to comment on current research modalities,6 education
opportunities, and strengthening observational systems, data management,
modeling capacity, and collaborations, including interfaces with mission
agencies, to be a request from NSF for specific advice. Much of this advice
may apply in varying degrees to other agencies, but the committee uses
examples from NSF programs in the following discussion.
A primary aim of NSF programs is to conduct discovery-driven re-
search to create basic knowledge in service to society. The broad sweep
of the entire report is relevant to this aim with respect to the hydrologic
sciences. Other agencies and organizations are involved in hydrologic sci-
ence research and have interests in various modalities of research support.
In this light, the critical elements of the committee's advice relate to (1)
investing in hydrologic science by collaborating across programs, divisions,
and directorates and by establishing a balanced portfolio of single-principal
investigator (PI), multi-PI, and community-driven interdisciplinary research
and education to advance the scientific frontier and to develop "the T
graduate" capable of both disciplinary depth and intellectual breadth; (2)
fostering collaboration among agencies and nations in hydrologic science
4 A "T-shaped" person is a revolutionary-type who drives innovation. Often used to describe
those in the workforce or in job recruitment, they have both depth and breadth of knowledge
and interest. They are able to work in an interdisciplinary fashion and see how ideas, sectors,
disciplines, and people intersect and connect. For more information see http://www.kauffman.
org/advancing-innovation/innovation-that-matters.aspx.
5 Eddy defines antedisciplinary science as the science that precedes the organization of new
disciplines.
6 The committee interprets the term "modalities" in the statement of task as referring to
capabilities within the NSF and other federal agencies used to advance hydrologic research
including contracts and research grants, instrumentation and facilities, and so forth.
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HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES: A PATH FORWARD 163
research, facilities, data and model sharing, as well as educational experi-
ences; (3) creating innovative new ways of communicating research results
to policy and decision makers; and (4) creating new modes of interaction
among physical and socioeconomic sciences relevant to water sustainability.
Taking Stock and Looking Ahead
To successfully solve today's complex water problems within the three
major areas (Water Cycle: An Agent of Change, Water and Life, and Clean
Water for the Future), scientists, engineers, and water managers need both
a disciplinary depth and intellectual breadth to bridge disciplines and to
effectively communicate science to policy makers. As technology to probe
Earth's mysteries advances, computer models become more sophisticated,
research relies on ever more extensive data for modeling and analysis, and
no single discipline provides the entire knowledge base, building mecha-
nisms to share knowledge, equipment, models, data, and science requires
a fostering platform and relevant resources. In light of these needs, entities
that support hydrologic science research could include investing in single
PI research, larger interdisciplinary groups, and community capacity build-
ing in their future approaches. Efforts to work in harmony rather than in
competition foster a culture of sharing and growth within an environment
of curiosity-driven research for the benefit of society. The necessary research
would be performed by not only interdisciplinary individuals who may pro-
vide truly exciting breakthroughs (e.g., Eddy, 2005) through the standard
research grant mode, but also individuals who do their most creative work
as partners in interdisciplinary research funded by larger research initia-
tives. Consequently, NSF would be well positioned to meet future programs
needs by maintaining an appropriate balance among its funding modalities.
Standard Research Grants
Research grants or contracts to individual PIs come from a variety of
federal, state, and local agencies and from private sources as well. An im-
portant part of this broad package is the NSF's Hydrologic Sciences (HS)
program in the Earth Sciences Division (EAR) of the Geosciences Director-
ate (GEO). Sixty-three percent of total federal funding to universities for
basic geosciences research originates from NSF's GEO (NSF, 2010). Sup-
port for research performed by individual investigators and small groups
of researchers is awarded by core programs through grants and continues
to be the backbone of EAR efforts. Approximately 90 percent of the HS
program budget supports this program element.
The extent and breadth of the hydrologic science research that has been
initiated and expanded since the launch of the HS program 20 years ago
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164 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES
confirms the community's valuation of curiosity-driven research, articulated
in the "Blue Book" (NRC, 1991), whose authors recommended creation of
the HS program. One measure of the success of the HS program is the high
proposal submission rate, which reflects an expanding and vibrant talent
pool ready to address the challenges of the future (Figure 5-1). At the same
time, the low funding success rate of proposals submitted through the stan-
dard grants competition (declining from 30 percent in 1999 to less than 20
percent in 2007, Figure 5-2) indicates the limited capacity of the program
to support the research proposed by the hydrologic sciences community.
Hydrologic science is well served by the HS program's support of standard
grants. This core research capability will continue to be important as NSF
addresses the opportunities and challenges described in this report. As other
agencies and organizations approach the challenges described in this report,
their support of individual PIs also will be important.
An opportunity exists to capitalize on the success of the PI driven pro-
gram element through collaborative work by groups of PIs. One example
is campaigns of field expeditions to collect data from multiple sources over
extended time periods and over fairly large areas. The benefit of this type of
activity has been demonstrated by other communities, such as in the FIFE
FIGURE 5-1 Number of proposals submitted to the National Science Foundation
R02116
for selected topics illustrating an increase in the number of proposals on hydrologic
sciences. SOURCE: Modified, with permission, from American Geological Institute
Figure 5-1
(2009). © 2009 by the American Geological Institute.
bitmapped, uneditable
portrait above, landscape below
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HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES: A PATH FORWARD 165
FIGURE 5-2 Funding proposal rate at the National Science Foundation for selected
topics illustrating a decline in the funded proposals for hydrologic sciences from
1999 to 2007. SOURCE: Modified, with permission, from American Geological
Institute (2009). © 2009 by the American Geological Institute.
R02116
Figure 5-2
experiment of the 1980sbitmapped,
and 1990s7 touneditable
elucidate land-atmosphere exchange
of carbon and water at multiple
portrait scales.
above, Other types
landscape of collaborative efforts
below
could include development of community models as has been successfully
done by the atmospheric science community,8 and sponsorship of synthesis
activities as has been done by the ecology community (National Center for
7 The FIFE projects or experiments of the late 1980s and early 1990s were central to NASA's
International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Program. The first experiment was conducted
on the Konza Prairie in Kansas, a 15 × 15 km area of grassland, and a follow-up experiment
at the same location a few years later. The objective of the FIFE experiment was to "under-
stand the biophysical processes controlling the fluxes of exchanges of radiation, moisture, and
carbon dioxide between the land surface and the atmosphere; develop and test remote-sensing
methodologies for observing these processes at a pixel level; and understand how to scale the
pixel-level information to regional scales commensurate with modeling of global processes."
This was achieved through coordinated data acquisition (satellite, airborne, and ground mea-
surements) and a scaling-up analysis by roughly 100 science investigators and support staff.
SOURCE: http://daac.ornl.gov/FIFE/FIFE_About.html. For more information see http://daac.
ornl.gov/FIFE/fife_campaign.html.
8 An activity of the National Center for Atmospheric Research located in Boulder, Colorado.
For more information see http://ncar.ucar.edu/community-resources/models.
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170 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES
TABLE 5-1 Number of Graduate Fellowships Offered over the Past 6
Years Through NSF's Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP) to
Students Who Cited Hydrologic Sciences as Their Primary Field of Study
NSF GRFP Offered in
Year Hydrologic Sciencesa Total NSF GRFP Offered
2005 2 1024
2006 4 909
2007 0 920
2008 1 913
2009 6 1248
2010 5 2051
2011 5 2000
aCurrently, the GRFP offers more than 150 choices for primary field of study, 17 of which
are in geosciences. These choices include hydrologic science and fields closely related to hy-
drologic science such as geochemistry, geology, and paleoclimate.
SOURCE: NSF Fastlane database. Available online at https://www.fastlane.nsf.gov/grfp/
AwardeeList.do?method=loadAwardeeList [accessed August 6, 2012].
study did not increase appreciably between 2009 and 2011 when the total
number of graduate fellowships awarded by NSF nearly doubled. Graduate
fellowships also are part of other programs, including the U.S. Environmen-
tal Protection Agency's Science to Achieve Results (STAR) fellowship,17 the
Department of Defense fellowship (the National Defense Science and En-
gineering Graduate Fellowship),18 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's graduate research fellowships,19 as well as fellowships
from foundations.
Looking ahead, the committee envisions that the relevant agencies and
organizations will appropriately extend support for interdisciplinary gradu-
ate education. As an example, the CUAHSI Pathfinder Graduate Student
Fellowships to Support Multi-site Research in Hydrology provides travel
support for graduate students to collaborate with researchers beyond their
own field site. Young hydrologic scientists and engineers also can par-
ticipate in the Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship
(IGERT) program, an NSF-wide endeavor to foster collaborative research
across traditional boundaries through new models for graduate training.
Active IGERT programs are classified by "themes" reflecting the interdis-
17 See http://epa.gov/ncer/.
18 See http://ndseg.asee.org/.
19 See http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/fellowships_opps.html.
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HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES: A PATH FORWARD 171
ciplinary nature of each; 14 current IGERTs list water as one dimension of
their theme.20
Undergraduate students also are demanding greater access to inter-
disciplinary research opportunities. Within NSF, Research Experiences for
Undergraduates (REU) programs are an opportunity to promote cross-
disciplinary research experiences, both domestically and internationally.21
REU programs provide a means to engage researchers from a variety of
disciplines and therefore can promote cross-disciplinary interaction among
mentoring scientists as well as students.
Increasing the participation of underrepresented groups in the geosci-
ences is an important goal of the NSF GEO. The hydrologic sciences can
contribute substantially to this effort by not only increasing the represen-
tation of underrepresented groups in the field, but also providing leader-
ship to build scientific capacity within underrepresented communities. An
example of this type of activity is the development of the first Hydrology
and Water Resources degree program in a tribal college, the Salish Kootenai
College in Montana, which will foster the development of local capacity
for managing tribal lands. This program is unique to Tribal Colleges and
can provide impetus for increasing the exceptionally low numbers of Native
American graduates in the geosciences in general and in hydrologic science
in particular.
NSF has well-established programs that can support education mo-
dalities mentioned above. Continued NSF support of various educational
modalities will enable beneficiaries to fulfill the research goals described in
this report.
Collaboration with Other Federal Agencies and
with International Organizations
Numerous U.S. federal agencies have varying degrees of responsibility
in water science or water management, including NSF (Figure 5-3). These
agencies fund research related to their missions, although only a fraction
would be considered to be in "hydrologic sciences." The nature of many of
the challenges facing the hydrologic sciences is such that coordination and
collaboration between research supported by NSF research supported by
these other agencies will be essential. A few examples of how such efforts
can be mutually beneficial are noted below.
NOAA's Community Hydrologic Prediction System22 is an example
where NSF research can be leveraged to improve a critical forecast service
20 See http://www.nsf.gov/crssprgm/igert/intro.jsp.
21 See http://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=5517&org=NSF.
22 See http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/chps/.
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172 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES
USDA 17%
NSF 22%
NOAA 4%
NASA 2%
DoD 15%
EPA 15%
DOE 4%
USBR 2%
DHHS 1%
USGS 18%
FIGURE 5-3Funding for U.S. research in water resources in 2000. The data in
the figure are from a survey of federal agencies in which data collection activities
(such as satellites and their instruments) were specifically excluded. SOURCE: NRC,
2004.
and deliver the basic science required
R02116 for improving hydrologic predictions
(NRC, 2010b). Key remote sensing products provided by NASA will drive
Figure 5-3
many of the advances in land surface-atmosphere hydrologic science that
from R0378, Figure 4-5
are described in Chapter 2, which necessitates coordination and collabora-
23
tion with NASA supported editable vectors
researchers. Synthesis of existing knowledge
across many disciplines is another challenge that stems from the broad
interdisciplinary nature of some of the research questions posed in this re-
port. The NSF may be able to collaborate with the U.S. Geological Survey's
recently established Powell Center.24 The recent collaboration with U.S. De-
partment of Agriculture on the Water, Sustainability, and Climate initiative
is another example of a leveraging opportunity that will benefit both agen-
cies. The committee views such extended program elements to have been
very successful to date, and likely to be even more so in the near future.
As other federal agencies continue to develop strong research programs,
national centers, and collaborative projects in water and water resources,
such extended program elements will continue to be successful. Expansion
23 See http://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/hsb/.
24 See http://www.fort.usgs.gov/news/news_story.asp?WebID=100727.
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HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES: A PATH FORWARD 173
of cross-agency programs and exploration of novel mechanisms of cross-
agency partnerships, including opportunities to make use of observational
programs and facilities, are likely prerequisites for effective response to the
research goals suggested in this report.
The hydrologic sciences community has always embraced an inter-
national perspective in its research but primarily in an informal manner.
Formal ways of fostering international collaboration within NSF's portfolio
of activities in environmental sciences and engineering will be needed in
the future. The U.S. CZOs are collaborating with a parallel program in
the European Union (Soil Transformations in European Catchments or
SoilTrEC25) to extend data and infrastructure availability broadly across
nations. This effort is part of the EU-U.S. collaboration on "common data
policies and standards relevant to global research infrastructures in the
environment field" and the "e-infrastructures" program that are beginning
to develop a common framework for sharing data, science, and models in
environmental sciences.
The hydrologic science community can achieve substantial benefits by
promoting common standards for data sets and their compatibility with
hydrologic modeling platforms. For example, the climate modeling com-
munity through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP)26
has established standards for data structure, formatting and metadata,
primarily by requiring that all model output submitted to the CMIP archive
use NetCDF formatting following climate and forecasting standards for
metadata. An outcome of this common structure has been an explosion in
the number of multimodel analyses applied to a wide variety of simulated
fields from global climate models. In addition, the common structure has
encouraged software development and sharing, because scientists do not
have to rewrite software for each new model or field analyzed. The software
sharing has promoted more sophisticated analyses and the movement of
multimodel archives into a distributed computing ("cloud") environment.
Such standards are starting to spread through the climate modeling com-
munity to other types of climate models, such as regional models, and to
observational data sets. The hydrologic community could achieve compa-
rable benefits through standardization of model output and observational
records.
25 See http://www.soiltrec.eu/.
26 See http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/.
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174 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES
TRANSLATIONAL HYDROLOGIC SCIENCE:
THE KEY TO SUCCESS THROUGH BROADER IMPACT
The lack of access to safe drinking water for nearly 3 billion people on
Earth is an urgent humanitarian crisis. Reducing this number is a primary
goal of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals on Environ-
mental Sustainability.27 Human consumption now constitutes a significant
fraction of the net biological productivity of the planet, and anthropogenic
impacts on freshwater quality and availability are notable in most places
in the world, especially in densely populated developing countries. Further-
more, the United Nations Millennium Development Goals to End Poverty
and Hunger propose a large increase in food production, with only a lim-
ited acknowledgment that this will require dramatic changes in the way
freshwater is currently used. Solutions to global water resources problems
are only achievable through action at local and regional levels. The research
needed to inform sound water management and policy decisions cannot be
done without engagement of stakeholders throughout the entire length of
the project. That is, by engaging in joint discussions, scientists, engineers,
and decision makers will gain a perspective on what judgments must be
made and what potential impacts may occur. The general approach has
been called the analytic-deliberative process (Box 5-1).
The research proposed in this report focuses on the physical, chemical,
and biological processes that operate within a suite of global cycles and
that affect the supply and quality of the planet's water resources. However,
improved knowledge of these processes does not necessarily translate into
improved management. In order to better connect science and decision
making, sustained interactions are needed among scientists, engineers, wa-
ter managers, and decision makers. Science conducted in this fashion is
called translational science, and it has most notably been applied to medical
science. In this application, "translational" refers to both the communica-
tion of science to decision makers and the communication of users' needs to
scientists and engineers so they can better understand their research. These
groups can work together to determine what scientific research is needed
and how the results from the work decision making.
Water challenges include insufficient and degraded water supplies for
both humans and ecosystems. Hydrologic science, broadly defined, is criti-
cal to meeting these challenges. However, solutions require translational
hydrologic research--"translational hydrologic science"--that considers
social, institutional, economic, legal, and political constraints. This clearly
27 Goal 7 of the United Nation's Millennium Goals is to "Ensure Environmental Stability."
Within this goal are several targets, one of which is to "halve, by 2015, the proportion of the
population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation." For more
information see http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/.
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HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES: A PATH FORWARD 175
BOX 5-1
The Analytic-Deliberative Process
The analytic-deliberative process integrates scientific analysis with delibera-
tion to guide situations where judgment by decision makers is necessary. Within
this framework, science illuminates how policy options will impact, for example,
water resources as well as characterizing and reducing uncertainties and dis-
agreements by providing new scientific information. In the process, the relationship
between scientists and decision makers relies on shared responsibility for making
judgments that are guided by broadly based deliberation involving stakeholders
rather than scientific analysis alone to inform policy.
SOURCE: Dietz and Stern (1998).
necessitates broad, interdisciplinary projects that are place based and that
include physical, chemical, biological, and social scientists as well as local
stakeholders. Research agendas are collaboratively produced by scientists,
engineers, decision makers, and stakeholders. Engagements are interac-
tive (multiway), sustained, with feedbacks and iterations, and involving a
time commitment from all parties. An evaluation process, independent of
the parties involved, is critical for successfully proposing, evaluating, and
executing translational research. Was the science ultimately useful in ad-
dressing the stakeholder needs or concerns?
How the SAHRA participated in translational research in the San Pedro
Basin, which straddles southeastern Arizona and northern Mexico, provides
an example of such research through NSF STCs (Box 5-2). Other agen-
cies have recognized the need for translational science as well. NOAA has
funded Regional Sciences and Assessments programs, some of which have
been in existence for more than a decade, demonstrating the challenges and
successes that come from problem-driven science. These regional programs
focus on climate information and products that would benefit manage-
ment and decision making. Research has addressed climate and health
issues (e.g., West Nile disease), long-term water resource planning using
paleohydrologic data, drought planning and monitoring in tribal lands, and
seasonal forecasts for agriculture.
The NSF does not have a long record of supporting research that truly
meets the goals of translational hydrologic science. The broad initiative on
Water Sustainability and Climate (WSC) appears to be one activity where
innovative basic research within the analytic-deliberative framework might
break with this tradition. In undertaking such research efforts it is acknowl-
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176 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES
BOX 5-2
Integration of Science with Elected Officials and Resource
Managers in the San Pedro: Time, Trust, and Lessons Learned
NSF sponsored research in the Upper San Pedro Basin (USPB) provides
an example of long-term integration of science with policy and decision mak-
ing focused on water sustainability. This semi-arid basin originates in northern
Sonora, Mexico, and flows north into southeastern Arizona. It is one of the most
ecologically diverse areas in the Western Hemisphere and contains some of the
last perennial streams in the region. In 1988, Congress established the San Pedro
Riparian National Conservation Area (SPRNCA), the first of its kind in the nation,
to protect this area's riparian resources. The aquifer that sustains perennial flows
in the San Pedro is virtually the sole source of water for two major, and growing,
economic drivers in the basin--the Cananea mine in Mexico, which produces 2 to
3 percent of the world's copper when in operation, and the Fort Huachuca Army
base, the largest employer in southern Arizona and integral to global military com-
munications. This aquifer has experienced severe drawdown and continues to be
pumped at excessive rates.
In 1998, the Upper San Pedro Partnership (USPP),a consisting of 21 agen-
cies and organizations was formed to facilitate and implement sound water man-
agement and conservation strategies in the Sierra Vista subwatershed of the
USPB. The Partnership's mission is to work together to achieve sustainable yield
of the regional aquifer to preserve the SPRNCA and ensure the long-term viability
of Fort Huachuca. The USPP consists of multiple stakeholders including research
scientists from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service
and the U.S. Geological Survey. These scientists have met with resource manag-
ers and election officials roughly three times per month within various committees
since USPP's inception. This extended interaction has laid the groundwork for a
strong foundation of trust between scientists and decision makers and has paved
edged that their purpose is to inform policy and provide a scientific basis
upon which policies themselves can be fashioned. The actual making of
public policy needs to be in the hands of the policy makers. The proposi-
tion that underlies the need for scientific input to policy-making processes is
that policies that are well informed by science are more effective and useful
than those that have not considered, simply ignored, or rejected science.
The committee encourages agencies and organizations to support an inter-
pretation of solicitations on interdisciplinary hydrologic science that allows
fair consideration of the new research directions in translational hydrologic
science that are needed to solve societal problems.
Underpinning success in translational hydrologic science is success-
ful communication between involved groups, which includes interactions
between scientists and engineers from different disciplines; scientists, engi-
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HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES: A PATH FORWARD 177
the way for interdisciplinary research conducted by the Sustainability of semi-Arid
Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA), the first NSF Science and Technology
Center that focused on water resources.b
As a key objective, SAHRA, in concert with the USPP, identified stakeholder-
relevant questions and initiated the design of research and monitoring to address
these questions. This research produced a number of key science products
ranging from quantification "of the temporal and spatial water needs of riparian
vegetation in the SPRNCA" to "an assessment of how groundwater pumping from
different zones within the basin affects the river" (Saliba and Jacobs, 2008). The
collaborative science also contributed directly to addressing key partnership goals
(e.g., a two-thirds reduction in the annual pumping deficit) and was instrumental
in new policy initiatives (e.g., local zoning laws to encourage growth and pumping
away from the river as well as two new landmark state water statutes).
This research collaboration offered several clear lessons. Ongoing and regu-
lar face-to-face communications between senior scientists and decision makers
enables the two groups to learn each other's "language," builds trust, and fosters
mutual learning. Scientists learn the social, economic, and political agenda and
constraints. Decision makers gain a better understanding of the natural system
as well as an appreciation of the uncertainties. Such collaboration is essential
to adaptive management, which enables decision makers to rapidly implement
low-risk management strategies while additional science and monitoring are con-
ducted for high-risk projects. Active engagement of stakeholders and the general
public from the beginning of the project greatly improves the likelihood that recom-
mendations will be implemented (Richter, 2010).
a See http://www.usppartnership.com/.
b See http://www.sahra.arizona.edu/.
neers, and decision makers; and scientists, engineers, and the informed pub-
lic. Yet communication can often be challenging because of, for example,
the lack of a common vocabulary or a common understanding of terms
(NRC, 2011). Given the interdisciplinary perspective needed to address fu-
ture challenges in water sciences, the importance of strong communication
skills will only increase. The educational experiences for young hydrologic
scientists should include experiences that enhance communication skills.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
This report challenges scholars in the hydrologic sciences to engage in
research that is both relevant and exciting, continues to promote education
to ensure a new generation of hydrologic scientists and engineers equipped
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178 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES
to face future water resource challenges is born, and continues the high
standard of quality research supported by NSF. This includes a call for
disciplinary and interdisciplinary research to shed light on the wonderfully
complex scientific puzzles that present themselves to hydrologic scientists
and engineers as well as research to meet the increasingly complex water-
related challenges facing the United States and the globe. Some broad ap-
proaches will facilitate the hydrologic community's ability to answer this
challenge:
· Interdisciplinarity: There is a need for interdisciplinary hydrologic
research that takes advantage of cutting-edge technologies to grapple with
the complex water-related challenges of today and tomorrow. As technol-
ogy to probe Earth's mysteries advances, computer models become more
and more sophisticated, research relies on ever more extensive data for
modeling and analysis, and no single discipline provides the entire knowl-
edge base; building mechanisms to share knowledge, equipment, models,
data, and science requires a fostering platform and relevant resources.
· Range of Modalities: A range of modalities plays a critical role in
hydrologic sciences that is key to tackling the challenges and opportunities
in this report.
· Education: To successfully solve today's complex water problems,
scientists, engineers, and water managers need disciplinary depth and intel-
lectual breadth to bridge disciplines and the ability to effectively communi-
cate science to policy makers.
· Translational Science: Multiway interactions among scientists,
engineers, water managers, and decision makers (termed "translational hy-
drologic science") are needed to more closely connect science and decision
making in order to address increasingly urgent water policy issues.
All of the research challenges described in this report invite a large
number of focused questions within the disciplines represented by the hy-
drologic sciences. Equally important, the research challenges clearly point
to the need for cross-disciplinary efforts to augment and supplement the
more traditional activities within disciplines. Consequently, hydrologic sci-
ence should partner with associated disciplines in ever more varied ways.
Success in preparing proposals, evaluating proposals, and conducting the
research effectively will require creativity within the research community
and within the federal agencies that support research in the hydrologic
sciences.
This committee was asked specifically to comment on challenges and
opportunities within hydrologic science and associated Earth and biological
sciences. Nevertheless, the committee is compelled to point out that, while
such research is definitely necessary, it is not sufficient. As water problems
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HYDROLOGIC SCIENCES: A PATH FORWARD 179
become more complex and as global water scarcity continues to manifest
itself in different ways, the need for science-based public policies to guide
water management will continue to intensify, presenting challenges that
have not heretofore been addressed in any consistent way. The results of
hydrologic studies are frequently unavailable to policy makers who may be
unfamiliar with the terminology and have no technical training that would
allow them to understand and interpret the results. Sometimes it is unclear
whether and how the implications of findings in the hydrologic sciences
will have relevance for public policy. The water management challenges of
the future will be even more difficult to address if the significant findings in
hydrologic sciences are left to find their way into policy-making processes
by serendipity.
The challenges of the future, therefore, will require more systematic
attention to the importance of hydrologic sciences in the public policy
process. In turn, researchers in the hydrologic sciences will be required to
collaborate and communicate with colleagues in the social sciences, includ-
ing economics, political science, psychology and sociology to a far greater
extent than has been the case in the past. Collaborative work with the so-
cial sciences will be helpful in identifying appropriate specific contexts for
hydrologic sciences in the policy-making process, interpreting hydrologic
sciences in terms of both economic and social implications and, ultimately,
in identifying how hydrologic sciences can contribute as fully as possible to
the advancement of human and societal well-being.
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