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5
Energy and Power Generation
INTRODUCTION
Energy, especially electrical energy, is a resource that is essential to
the growth and maintenance of quality of life in contemporary civilization.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), “U.S. electricity
use in 2010 was more than 13 times greater than electricity use in 1950”
and is expected to grow in the long term (EIA 2011a). At present, coal is
the dominant energy source for electricity production (Figure 5-1). A robust
group of resources for energy production, transformation, and delivery is
thus essential for national security. Although natural gas is a lower-carbon
FIGURE 5-1 U.S. Net Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2010.
SOURCE: EIA 2011b, Figure 2, p. 1.
5-1.eps
bitmap
73
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74 ASSURING A FUTURE U.S.-BASED NUCLEAR AND RADIOCHEMISTRY EXPERTISE
fossil fuel than coal, there is wide agreement that use of fossil fuels must
be sharply reduced, at least for electricity production, in order to decrease
their unfavorable impact on the environment, especially their release of
carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. Nuclear energy has potential for
significant expansion in order to alleviate CO2 emission. Based upon long-
standing U.S. national policy (Chu 2011): “Nuclear power will continue
to be an important part of our energy mix, both in the United States and
around the world. Its role grows more valuable as we confront a changing
climate, increasing energy demand, and a struggling global economy.” It is
this committee’s judgment that expertise in nuclear and radiochemistry is
essential to ensuring that safe nuclear energy can remain part of the robust
group of alternative energy sources for the United States.
The development of nuclear power is not a frontier fundamental re-
search area of nuclear and radiochemistry, with the exception of chemical
separations and some radiation chemistry topics, none of which appeared of
general interest. However, the “back end” of the nuclear fuel cycle has many
fundamental challenges. Box 5-1 represents the heart of the DOE Energy
Frontier Research Center (EFRC) “Materials Science of Actinides,” one of 46
EFRCs initiated in 2010 after intense competition, thorough peer review, and
evaluation by DOE management. It describes beautiful molecular clusters
that are truly novel and that may be relevant to colloidal transport of radio-
nuclides in repositories. The work shows how radiochemistry overlaps with
colloid chemistry and nanochemistry. Other basic-research radio/nuclear
chemistry areas related to nuclear power (novel chemical separations for
closed fuel cycles, nuclear fission cross-sections, etc.) are far less compre-
hensible to non-specialists.
A BRIEF HISTORY AND CURRENT STATUS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY
An exciting milestone toward utilizing nuclear energy occurred on
December 20, 1951, when Argonne National Laboratory’s reactor EBR-1
produced the first few kilowatts of nuclear electric power (Figure 5-3). In
1953, 8 years after the end of World War II, President Eisenhower spoke to
the United Nations about peaceful uses of atomic energy. Five years later
he opened the first atomic power station at Shippingport, Pennsylvania. In
1969, the first large-scale commercial nuclear power plant began operations
in New Jersey.
The Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station in New Jersey was the first
large-scale commercial nuclear power plant in the United States. It remains
in commission as the oldest operating nuclear plant in the United States,
having run since December 1969; its operator, Exelon Nuclear, plans to
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75
ENERGY AND POWER GENERATION
BOX 5-1 ENERGY RESEARCH FRONTIERS CENTER: MATERIALS SCIENCE OF
ACTINIDES
Fundamental aspects of chemical bonding of actinide elements, geochemistry of minerals,
nanoscale materials, and migration of radionuclides under environmental conditions impact
the nuclear fuel cycle. For example, there are very few minerals that contain peroxide because
minerals form in the geosphere, where peroxide is unusual. However, the gamma radiation that
exists in uranium-rich minerals produces peroxide and forms minerals with peroxide ions (O-O)2-.
Similar gamma irradiation produces peroxide in groundwater near stored used nuclear fuel
and near uranium-containing nuclear waste materials (Burns 2010). Within the past decade a
large number of novel uranium clusters with peroxide and hydroxide have been found to self-
assemble as nanospheres from aqueous solution (Figure 5-2).
FIGURE 5-2 Clusters of uranyl peroxide hexagonal bipyramids containing topological squares.
5-2.eps
bitmap
Shown are the polyhedral representations of the clusters (in yellow), and the topological graphs.
(a,d) U24, (b,e) U32, (c,f ) U40.
SOURCE: Burns 2010.
Most of these uranium clusters are spheroids with symmetry resembling, or even the same
as, that of fullerene C60. Other uranium clusters have been prepared as tubes or crowns, some
forming very quickly and subsequently rearranging into more stable solids. Related clusters
have been prepared with ions of the transuranium elements neptunium and plutonium. These
colloidal-size clusters (monodispersed aggregates) may form at near-ambient temperatures in
alkaline solutions that are part of the nuclear fuel cycle or under environmental conditions within
a nuclear waste repository.
Colloids of similar sizes are sufficiently stable that they have been shown to transport radio-
nuclides over significant distances, providing an unanticipated mode of radionuclide migration.
These uranium-peroxide-hydroxide aggregates serve as an appropriate form to study, to under-
stand, and to control the fundamental structure-property relationships of colloidal aggregates in
solution. They represent a new class of nanoscale materials for fundamental study and for applied
radiochemistry related to the nuclear fuel cycle.
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76 ASSURING A FUTURE U.S.-BASED NUCLEAR AND RADIOCHEMISTRY EXPERTISE
FIGURE 5-3 EBR-1 was the first nuclear reactor to generate electricity, providing power
5-3.eps
to light these four 200-watt light bulbs on December 20, 1951.
bitmap
SOURCE: Argonne National Laboratory 2012.
close it in 2019. At present there are 104 nuclear power plants operating
in the United States, producing 19.6 percent of all domestic electricity (NEI
2011a). As shown in Tables 5-1 and 5-2, the United States generates the
most nuclear power in the world.
The first nuclear power plant in France was commissioned in 1971. With
a sustained national commitment to nuclear power and nuclear deterrence,
France has the largest worldwide percentage of its electricity from nuclear
power (75 percent), produced by 58 reactors, the oldest having been com-
missioned in 1977 (World Nuclear Association 2011b).
The U.S. nuclear industry has had a sustained record of growth (Figures
5-4 and 5-5) and low production costs compared with other sources of
electricity (Figure 5-6) for the past two decades, and a good safety record.1
For example, the capacity factor (shown in Figure 5-4)—which is the ratio
of the amount of power generated over a time period compared to the rated
100 percent power able to be generated in the same time period—at exist-
ing U.S. nuclear power plants it is expected to remain at approximately 91
percent for the next several years (USNRC 2011a, NEI 2012). Therefore, in
2010 the capacity factor of U.S. nuclear power plants was 91.2 percent; i.e.,
the U.S. plants produced 91.2 percent of the maximum power possible. The
other 8.8 percent was when the plants were not at 100 percent power, for
outages, to perform maintenance, or testing. Taken together, this information
For more information, see NEI 2011b
1
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77
ENERGY AND POWER GENERATION
TABLE 5-1 Worldwide Nuclear Power Plants and Nuclear Electricity Generation*
As of October 2011 Total for 2010
Number of Nuclear Capacity Nuclear Generation Nuclear Fuel Share
Country Nuclear Units (MWe) (BkWh) (Percent) of Electricity
Total 431 367476 2630.2
United States 104 101229 807.1 19.6
France 58 63130 410.1 74.1
Japan 51 44642 280.3 29.2
Russia 32 23084 159.4 17.1
Korea RO (South) 21 18716 141.9 32.2
Germany 9 12003 133.0 28.4
Canada 17 12044 85.5 15.1
Ukraine 15 13168 84.0 48.1
China 14 11271 71.0 1.8
Spain 8 7448 59.3 20.1
United Kingdom 18 10962 56.9 15.7
Sweden 10 9399 55.7 38.1
Belgium 7 5943 45.7 51.2
Taiwan 6 4927 39.9 19.3
Czech Republic 6 3722 26.4 33.2
Switzerland 5 3252 25.3 38.0
Finland 4 2721 21.9 28.4
India 20 4385 20.5 2.9
Hungary 4 1880 14.7 42.1
Bulgaria 2 1906 14.2 33.1
Brazil 2 1901 13.9 3.1
Slovakia 4 1816 13.5 51.8
South Africa 2 1800 12.9 5.2
Romania 2 1310 10.7 19.5
Argentina 2 935 6.7 5.9
Mexico 2 1600 5.6 3.6
Slovenia 1 696 5.4 37.3
Netherlands 1 485 3.8 3.4
Pakistan 3 725 2.6 2.6
Armenia 1 376 2.3 39.4
* Sorted in order of 2010 nuclear generation. IAEA and WNA nuclear capacity figures vary slightly.
SOURCE: Reprinted with permission. IAEA 2011; World Nuclear Association 2011a.
indicates that nuclear energy will continue to be a part of the U.S. energy
portfolio for the foreseeable future, and thus an employment sector requiring
nuclear chemistry expertise.
In addition, there are several plants that are performing power upgrades,
which add additional capacity to those units. On the new generation front,
due to the historically low price for natural gas it is expected that new
natural gas plants will be built and operated to replace the older coal plants
and to cover increases in demand. Overall, the nuclear share of electricity
generation in the United States is projected to remain stable or on a slight
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78 ASSURING A FUTURE U.S.-BASED NUCLEAR AND RADIOCHEMISTRY EXPERTISE
TABLE 5-2 World Nuclear Fraction of Total Electricity Production for Selected
Countries in 2010
Share of world nuclear electricity Nuclear fraction of country’s
Country generation (6 largest) total electricity production
United States 30.6% 19.6%
France 15.6% 74.1%
Japan 10.6% 29.2%
Russia 6.1% 17.1%
South Korea 5.4% 32.2%
Germany 5.1% 28.4%
SOURCE: EIA 2011c ; World Nuclear Association 2011a.
decreasing trend over the next decade (EIA 2011g; NEI 2011e). Although
the United States has the longest history of production of nuclear energy
and the largest nuclear generating capacity, France currently has the most
ambitious nuclear program with the world’s largest percentage of electric-
ity production from nuclear reactors. Therefore, this report considers the
French university and engineering academic nuclear chemistry institutions
and French industrial training infrastructure as a useful model.
Year
FIGURE 5-4 Growth of U.S. nuclear energy generation, 1980-2009.
5-4.eps
SOURCE: EIA 2011d,e.
bitmap
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79
ENERGY AND POWER GENERATION
100
89.0
90
80
70
60
Percent
50
40
30
20
10
0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2011
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Year
FIGURE 5-5 U.S. nuclear industry capacity factors—the ratio of the amount of power
5-5.eps
generated over a time period compared to the rated 100% power able to be generated
in the same time period, 1971-2011. For comparison, France’s capacity factor was 75
percent in 2011. (World Nuclear Association 2011b).
SOURCE: NEI 2011c.
WORKFORCE CONSIDERATIONS
Nuclear power produces nearly 20 percent of U.S. electrical energy.
This level has been achieved through growth in the nuclear power indus-
try between 1970 and 1990. Despite the absence of nuclear power plant
launchings since 1977, this 20 percent level has been maintained since
about 2000 by an increase in the industry’s capacity factor to 90 percent.
The reliability of delivery of nuclear energy (Figure 5-5) and its competitive-
ness with other sources of electric energy (Figure 5-6) underpin the nuclear
power industry’s ongoing need for well-trained mid-level professionals such
as nuclear and radiochemists. The nuclear power industry requires profes-
sionals with nuclear and radiochemistry expertise in each of these domains:
• Design of advanced nuclear fission reactors and implementation
of both transformational and incremental improvements in reactor
technology;
• Operation of existing nuclear reactors;
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80 ASSURING A FUTURE U.S.-BASED NUCLEAR AND RADIOCHEMISTRY EXPERTISE
Year
FIGURE 5-6 U.S. electricity production costs in 2010 cents per kilowatt-hour. Note that
5-6.eps
electricity production costs do not include the costs of construction, decommissioning,
bitmap
or indirect costs such as waste management or carbon capture.
SOURCE: NEI 2011c,d; data from EIA 2011f.
• Improvements and maintenance of components of the existing
“open” nuclear fuel cycle;
• Storage and monitoring of used nuclear fuel;
• Safe and secure ultimate disposal of radioactive wastes streams from
nuclear power plants;
• Environmental monitoring of all aspects of nuclear power; and
• Nuclear data (for example, half-lives, nuclear cross sections for
neutronic processes including fission as a function of energy, and
nuclear energy levels).
Bounding Scenarios
This chapter considers two bounding scenarios that will impact the
future need for nuclear and radiochemistry expertise:
Scenario 1: Status quo
The first scenario (the lower bound) is that the existing civilian nuclear
power reactor fleet is maintained, extending the operating life of the existing
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ENERGY AND POWER GENERATION
nuclear fleet to 60 years, where appropriate. This is slightly more conserva-
tive than the “reference case” of the U.S. Energy Information Administra-
tion’s 2011 annual energy outlook (EIA 2011g, p.76), which assumes “3.8
gigawatts of expansion in the existing nuclear fleet with the completion of
a second unit at the Watts Bar site, where construction on a partially com-
pleted plant has resumed.”
Scenario 2: Ambitious
The second scenario (the upper bound) assumes an ambitious path for-
ward: to build the U.S. nuclear fleet to the “greenhouse gas price economy-
wide” case of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2011 annual
energy outlook. In this scenario, “nuclear capacity additions from 2010 to
2035 will increase by 29 gigawatts as a consequence of the higher costs
for operating fossil-fueled capacity.” This is based on 20 new power plants
being built within the next 20 years.
Specific Sector Demand
The U.S. commercial nuclear industry comprises workers at electric
power companies, power plant design firms, and nuclear power industry
suppliers. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 2010 employ-
ment in the nuclear electric power generation industry (NAICS 221113)
was 56,778 (BLS 2012). With the inclusion of power plant design firms and
supplies, the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) estimates the nuclear industry
employed 120,000 people in 2009, that 38 percent of that workforce will
be eligible to retire within the next five year, and that the industry will need
to hire about 25,000 workers by 2015 to maintain the current workforce
(NEI 2010). However, no further information is available on what fraction
of that workforce consists of nuclear and radiochemistry experts, since the
BLS has very little additional data on the nuclear industry. For example the
BLS does not provide information on the occupations found in the nuclear
industry nor is there information on the demographics of the nuclear in-
dustry workforce.
This committee contacted different groups of the nuclear power com-
munity to ask about the current and projected demand for nuclear and
radiochemists over the next two decades. The responses received indicate
a relatively small need for nuclear and radiochemists (when compared
with the total nuclear industry workforce). However, the numbers are sig-
nificant given the small size of the nuclear and radiochemistry workforce.
The commercial nuclear power industry appears to be the segment with the
most significant demand for radiochemists, particularly B.S. degree holders.
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82 ASSURING A FUTURE U.S.-BASED NUCLEAR AND RADIOCHEMISTRY EXPERTISE
Overall, very few nuclear or radiochemists with advanced degrees will be
needed at nuclear power plants.
Commercial Nuclear Power Plants
The standard organization at most nuclear power plants includes one
radiochemist and one reactor chemist who is supported by chemistry tech-
nicians. Since there are 65 nuclear power plants in the United States, there
are approximately 130 nuclear and radiochemists. Based on committee
knowledge, out of the 130 approximately there are 4 M.S. and 1 Ph.D. level
chemists, and the rest are bachelor’s degree chemists. An informal e-mail
questionnaire was sent to chemistry managers at the 65 U.S. nuclear power
plant sites (a total of 28 companies, which are listed in Appendix I) resulted
in only 27 manager responses (41 percent). Currently, almost all plants that
responded hire B.S.-level chemists and train their own radiochemistry and
reactor chemists. The following table (Table 5-3) quantifies the predicted
hiring needs of nuclear and radiochemists for existing nuclear power plants
(lower bound “status quo” scenario, extrapolated from 27 responses to all
65 requests).
Nuclear Power Vendor Community
The nuclear power vendor-support services community was also con-
tacted by the committee. Out of five companies contacted four responded
(Westinghouse, GE-Hitachi, AREVA, Dionex). Based on the input from the
vendors, the committee estimates that there are currently about 5 B.S., 5
M.S., and 5 Ph.D. level nuclear and radiochemists total employed by the
nuclear power vendor community. The predicted hiring of nuclear and
radiochemists for the nuclear vendors and support industry were very mod-
est. Extrapolating from 4 responses to all 5 vendors, there was a predicted
TABLE 5-3 Estimated Hiring Needs for Radiochemists at Existing Nuclear
Power Plants (status quo scenario)
0-5 y 6-10 y 11-15 y 16-20 y
B.S. 104 0 82 62
M.S. 6 0 0 0
Ph.D. 2 0 0 2
NOTE: Numbers based on extrapolation of 27 responses to 65 requests. Data is for retirement
replacement only.
SOURCE: Unidentified respondents to questionnaire sent to companies listed in Appendix I.
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83
ENERGY AND POWER GENERATION
need for 6 B.S., 3 M.S. and 3 Ph.D. level nuclear and radiochemists over
the next 20 years.
Hiring needs for additional nuclear and radiochemists for the ambitious
upper-bound scenario of 20 new power plants within 20 years are estimated
to be all at the B.S. level: 20 B.S.-level radiochemists during years 6-10 and
20 during years 11-15. This would be in addition to the need given for the
“status quo”scenario.
National Laboratories with Focus on Reactor and Fuel Cycle Research
Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been designated since 2005 as the
lead DOE laboratory for nuclear reactor research. Other national laborato-
ries (especially Argonne and Oak Ridge) traditionally have had and still have
missions of nuclear reactor research. Demographics and projected hiring
for nuclear and radiochemists in the national laboratories are presented in
Chapter 2 of this report. The projected demands at the B.S.-degree level for
nuclear and radiochemists at national laboratories (see Table 2-4) are small
compared to projected needs within commercial nuclear power plants.
However, the projected demands for M.S. and Ph.D. nuclear and radiochem-
ists at national laboratories are larger. Therefore the recommendations for
nuclear and radiochemists in the energy and power sector focus on educa-
tion needs at the bachelor’s degree level.
Federal and State Nuclear Regulatory Agencies
Personnel data from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC)
indicate there may be a need for nuclear and radiochemists to replace retir-
ing professional staff. As of December 2011, there were 3,995 total USNRC
employees (USOPM 2012). Of these, 11 percent (432) had an occupation in
the physical sciences (occupation code 13xx), mostly split between general
physical sciences and health physics (occupational codes 1301 and 1306,
respectively). However, there is no further data about educational degrees or
area of expertise of the employees. Based on its own knowledge, the com-
mittee roughly estimates that 20 nuclear and radiochemistry professionals
are currently employed at the USNRC at each degree level (14 percent of
physical science employees). The committee further estimates that 3 M.S.,
and 4 Ph.D.-level nuclear and radiochemistry professionals will be needed
by the U.S. NRC over the next 5 years to replace retiring staff. Projecting
this estimate out over 20 years, the committee estimates that the USNRC
will need 15 B.S.-, 12 M.S.-, and 16 Ph.D.-level replacement nuclear/
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84 ASSURING A FUTURE U.S.-BASED NUCLEAR AND RADIOCHEMISTRY EXPERTISE
radiochemistry staff.2 This assumption is conservative because it does not
take into account any additional demand due to the construction of new
nuclear plants (see NRC Workforce projections GAO 2007, USNRC 2011b).
Most states have an agency that regulates nuclear facilities, which
often have staff with nuclear and radiochemistry expertise. For example,
Maryland’s Radiological Health Program fulfills this role for its one nuclear
power reactor and other nuclear facilities. The Maryland agency was sent
the same questionnaire that went to chemistry mangers at nuclear power
plants, and responded that it employs one nuclear or radiochemist (Ph.D.
level) and projects three hires within the next 15 years (1 B.S., 1 M.S.,
and 1 Ph.D.).3 Based on the response from Maryland and there being 31
states with nuclear power plants, the committee roughly estimates that
there are 10 B.S.-, 20 M.S.-, and 20 Ph.D.-level nuclear and radiochem-
ists employed. In addition, a conservative extrapolation, estimating only
50 percent of the Maryland projection, it expected that state regulatory
agencies will hire 15 B.S., 15 M.S., and 15 Ph.D. nuclear and radiochem-
ists in the next 15 years.
Fusion Energy Workforce
For the purposes of this study, the committee did not consider fusion
energy workforce needs. While it is not yet possible to suggest the size of a
workforce that would be required by a fusion energy industry, research and
development efforts within the fusion community do employ radiochemists,
particularly in the development of diagnostics of fusion.
Overall Demand
Overall the demand in the nuclear energy and power area, including
the USNRC, and state regulatory agencies, conservatively projects the need
for nuclear and radiochemists as shown in Table 5-4.
These demands do not include national laboratory needs, some of which
will be in the energy and power area. The current and projected demand
for nuclear and radiochemistry expertise in the national laboratories are
presented in Figure 2-5 and Table 2-4.
Estimate determined as follows: 3 M.S. and 4 Ph.D. needed for each 5-year period over 20
2
yrs, thus 3x4 M.S. degree holders plus 4x4 Ph.D. degree holders. There is also an estimated
need of 15 B.S.-level nuclear and radiochemists.
The questionnaire was also sent to representatives at state agencies in Illinois, New Jersey,
3
and Pennsylvania, but no responses were received.
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85
ENERGY AND POWER GENERATION
TABLE 5-4 Summary of Current and Projected Demand for Nuclear and
Radiochemistry Expertise, Based on the Scenario 1—Status Quo Operation of
Nuclear Power Plants
To be hired . . .
Currently Employed* . . .in the next 5 years . . .in the next 20 years
B.S. 160 104 274
M.S. 49 14 36
Ph.D. 46 11 38
*Current employment: industry (125 B.S., 4 M.S., and 1 Ph.D.), vendors (5 B.S., 5 M.S., and 5 Ph.D.),
USNRC (20 B.S., 20 M.S., and 20 Ph.D.), and state regulatory agencies (10 BS, 20 MS, and 20 Ph.D.).
See text for more information.
FINDINGS
There is a critical need for nuclear and radiochemistry expertise in nuclear
energy and power generation, especially at the B.S. level, based on a sce-
nario of continued operation of nuclear power plants at current capacity:
• At the B.S. level, there is a high demand in the nuclear power
industry for B.S. chemists, with a specialization in nuclear and
radiochemistry. Largely due to estimates received from the U.S.
nuclear power sector, there is a need over the next 20 years for
approximately 274 B.S. chemistry graduates with an emphasis in
nuclear or radiochemistry. Most training for nuclear or radiochem-
istry expertise among nuclear power operators is currently being
done in-house by the industry.
• At the M.S. and Ph.D. levels, the demand in the nuclear power in-
dustry for nuclear and radiochemists with graduate degrees is small,
but there is demand from federal and state regulatory agencies. The
overall demand in the nuclear energy and power area (not includ-
ing work at national laboratories) is projected to be 36 M.S. and 38
Ph.D. level nuclear and radiochemists over the next 20 years.
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