Report of a Workshop on Science, Technology, Engineering,
and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs for the
U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base

Committee on Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Workforce Needs for the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING AND
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Report of a Workshop on Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs for the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base Committee on Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Workforce Needs for the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by contract number HQ0034-10-D-0003, delivery order 0003, between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-25180-8 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-25180-X Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, shar- ing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and rec - ognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad com - munity of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the gov - ernment, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS WORKFORCE NEEDS FOR THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AND THE U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE NORMAN R. AUGUSTINE (NAS/NAE), Co-Chair, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired) C.D. (DAN) MOTE, JR. (NAE), Co-Chair, University of Maryland, College Park BURT S. BARNOW, The George Washington University JAMES S.B. CHEW, L-3 Communications LAWRENCE J. DELANEY, Titan Corporation (retired) MARY L. GOOD (NAE), University of Arkansas at Little Rock DANIEL E. HASTINGS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ROBERT J. HERMANN (NAE), Private Consultant, Bloomfield, Connecticut J.C. HERZ, Batchtags, LLC RAY O. JOHNSON, Lockheed Martin Corporation ANITA K. JONES (NAE), University of Virginia SHARON LEVIN, University of Missouri-St. Louis FRANCES S. LIGLER (NAE), Naval Research Laboratory AARON LINDENBERG, Stanford University PAUL D. NIELSEN (NAE), Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University DANIEL T. OLIVER, Naval Postgraduate School C. KUMAR N. PATEL (NAS/NAE), Pranalytica, Inc. LEIF E. PETERSON, Advanced HR Concepts and Solutions, LLC STEPHEN M. ROBINSON (NAE), University of Wisconsin-Madison MICHAEL S. TEITELBAUM, Harvard Law School RONALD WILLIAMS, The College Board Staff TERRY JAGGERS, Lead Board Director MARTIN OFFUTT, Study Director GAIL GREENFIELD, Program Officer DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Program Officer KAMARA E. BROWN, Research Associate MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator DIONNA ALI, Senior Program Assistant v

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional stan - dards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Richard Berg, MITRE Corporation, Uma Chowdry (NAE), E.I. du Pont de Nemours, Richard Freeman, Harvard University, Paul Gaffney (NAE), Monmouth University, Norine Noonan, University of South Florida, Michael Rodemeyer, University of Virginia, and Steven Wise, Northwest Evaluation Association. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Martha Krebs, University of California, Davis. Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. vii

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Contents 1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS FROM THE WORKSHOP 3 Emerging Science and Technology, 3 Estimating STEM Workforce Needs Under Future Scenarios, 4 Limitations to Meeting Workforce Needs of DOD and the Industrial Base, 5 Institutional Capacity in Education and the DOD Investments Needed to Ensure a Sufficient Workforce, 5 Ensuring an Adequate Workforce Capability in an Uncertain Future, 6 3 SUMMARY OF KEYNOTE TALKS 7 Charles Vest, President, National Academy of Engineering, 7 Zachary J. Lemnios, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, 8 4 SUMMARY OF PANEL SESSIONS 12 Panel 1: Emerging Science and Technology in the Next 15 Years, 12 Question to Be Addressed, 12 Summary of Lead-off Presentations, 12 Panel Discussion, 14 Panel 2: Estimating STEM Workforce Needs Under Future Scenarios, 18 Question to Be Addressed, 18 Summary of Lead-off Presentation, 19 Panel Discussion, 20 Panel 3: Limitations to Meeting Workforce Needs of DOD and the Industrial Base, 25 Question to Be Addressed, 25 Summary of Lead-off Presentation, 25 Panel Discussion, 27 ix

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x CONTENTS Panel 4: Institutional Capacity in Education and the DOD Investments Needed to Ensure a Sufficient Workforce, 30 Question to Be Addressed, 30 Summary of Lead-off Presentation, 30 Panel Discussion, 32 Panel 5: Ensuring an Adequate Workforce Capability in an Uncertain Future, 37 Question to Be Addressed, 37 Summary of Lead-off Presentation, 37 Panel Discussion, 40 5 WRAP-UP SESSION 45 Co-Chair Summary, 45 Panel Session Moderator Summaries, 47 Panel 1, on Emerging Science and Technology in the Next 15 Years, 47 Panel 2, on Estimating STEM Workforce Needs Under Future Scenarios, 48 Panel 3, on Limitations to Meeting Workforce Needs of DOD and the Industrial Base, 48 Panel 4, on Institutional Capacity in Education and the DOD Investments Needed to Ensure a Sufficient Workforce, 49 Panel 5, on Ensuring an Adequate Workforce Capability in an Uncertain Future, 49 APPENDIXES A Workshop Agenda 53 B Workshop Attendees 56 C Biographies of the Committee Members 59